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Questioning the Climate-Change Narrative

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There was an interesting story in Yahoo this morning.

Questioning the Climate-Change Narrative
For example, both the research literature and government reports that summarize and assess the state of climate science say clearly that heat waves in the U.S. are now no more common than they were in 1900, and that the warmest temperatures in the U.S. have not risen in the past 50 years. When I tell people this, most are incredulous. Some gasp. And some get downright hostile.
Here are three more that might surprise you, drawn directly from recent published research or the latest assessments of climate science published by the U.S. government and the U.N.:

  • Humans have had no detectable impact on hurricanes over the past century.
  • Greenland’s ice sheet isn’t shrinking any more rapidly today than it was 80 years ago.
  • The net economic impact of human-induced climate change will be minimal through at least the end of this century.
This appears to be from a new book

Unsettled​


By Steven E. Koonin

 
“Scientists who have spent their careers studying climate science said that Koonin’s critiques are superficial, misleading and marred by overgeneralization. The science at the core of “Unsettled” is fatally out of date, they say, and is based on the 2013 physical science report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

Since then, climate scientists have continued to learn more about the intensity and potentially catastrophic disruption of a warming climate. And while a decade ago, the effects of climate change still seemed a future threat, its impacts—sea level rise; shrinking glaciers; more extreme and frequent storms; drought and wildfire—already are being felt around the world.

The most recent scientific evidence, which will be covered in the IPCC update due out in August, has increased researchers’ confidence that human activity is the driving force in the current warming. Climate attribution studies in the last five years have shown that recent heat waves would have been all but impossible without the effect of greenhouse gas pollution. Other new research suggests that global warming has intensified extreme rainfall over parts of North America, and that overheated oceans are increasing the intensity of the tropical storms. Koonin’s book does not take these studies into account, and when he does cite recent studies, stresses their uncertainties rather than the findings, which affirm humanity’s role in the planet’s changes.

“The bottom line is that despite uncertainties in the magnitude and patterns of natural climate variability, human-caused climate change fingerprints have been identified in pretty much every aspect of climate change scientists have looked at,” said Benjamin Santer, an atmospheric scientist and leading climate modeler at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. “
 
Well folks, there's yet another opportunity for people with no training and experience in the field to pretend that their ignorance is not merely as good as but is in fact better than knowledge of those who have devoted their careers to this subject.

le sigh



And, apparently, theoretical physicists who teaches at a school of engineering. What the hell does he know about climate science? At least Dyson guy admitted that he does not know much of anything about the technical details in the field.


I wonder how he would feel if an animal husbandry expert wrote him to let him know that physicists have gotten their math all wrong for decades and he, the animal husbandry expert, *just knows* how math should really work.




Christ, I'd love to see one of you require a lifesaving bit of brain surgery which could be pulled off just fine, but instead you refuse to go through with it on the ground that you have personally figured out that neuroscience has got it all wrong, and you *just know* that the proper remedy is to drink a glass of cranberry juice soaked in rose petals every night before bed. Then maybe I'd believe you actually do think this AGW denier crap is valid, rather than just slinging it for partisan ends.
 
“Scientists who have spent their careers studying climate science said that Koonin’s critiques are superficial, misleading and marred by overgeneralization. The science at the core of “Unsettled” is fatally out of date, they say, and is based on the 2013 physical science report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

Since then, climate scientists have continued to learn more about the intensity and potentially catastrophic disruption of a warming climate. And while a decade ago, the effects of climate change still seemed a future threat, its impacts—sea level rise; shrinking glaciers; more extreme and frequent storms; drought and wildfire—already are being felt around the world.

The most recent scientific evidence, which will be covered in the IPCC update due out in August, has increased researchers’ confidence that human activity is the driving force in the current warming. Climate attribution studies in the last five years have shown that recent heat waves would have been all but impossible without the effect of greenhouse gas pollution. Other new research suggests that global warming has intensified extreme rainfall over parts of North America, and that overheated oceans are increasing the intensity of the tropical storms. Koonin’s book does not take these studies into account, and when he does cite recent studies, stresses their uncertainties rather than the findings, which affirm humanity’s role in the planet’s changes.

“The bottom line is that despite uncertainties in the magnitude and patterns of natural climate variability, human-caused climate change fingerprints have been identified in pretty much every aspect of climate change scientists have looked at,” said Benjamin Santer, an atmospheric scientist and leading climate modeler at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. “
But his points are still valid, and yes we continue to learn more about things that cause the climate to warm.
With each new bit of data, what remains to be attributed to CO2 forcing and amplified feedbacks, gets less and less.
One thing I find interesting is the difference between the Norther and Southern Hemisphere warming.
They both emit 15 um photons from all surfaces (water and land), and have the same levels of CO2, yet have warmed quite differently.
The extra norther warming looks like it comes from several hundred years of aerosol dimming, followed by 30 years of very rapid
brightening, as the aerosols cleared. This rapid brightening could be responsible for up to .2C of the observed global warming.
 
Well folks, there's yet another opportunity for people with no training and experience in the field to pretend that their ignorance is not merely as good as but is in fact better than knowledge of those who have devoted their careers to this subject.

le sigh



And, apparently, theoretical physicists who teaches at a school of engineering. What the hell does he know about climate science? At least Dyson guy admitted that he does not know much of anything about the technical details in the field.


I wonder how he would feel if an animal husbandry expert wrote him to let him know that physicists have gotten their math all wrong for decades and he, the animal husbandry expert, *just knows* how math should really work.




Christ, I'd love to see one of you require a lifesaving bit of brain surgery which could be pulled off just fine, but instead you refuse to go through with it on the ground that you have personally figured out that neuroscience has got it all wrong, and you *just know* that the proper remedy is to drink a glass of cranberry juice soaked in rose petals every night before bed. Then maybe I'd believe you actually do think this AGW denier crap is valid, rather than just slinging it for partisan ends.
From your WiKi citation,
Ph.D. from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology
assistant professor of theoretical physics at Cal Tech.
BP Chief Scientist in alternative and renewable energy sources.
Department of Energy's Under Secretary for Science
and is currently a theoretical physicist and director of the Center for Urban Science and Progress at New York University.
Sounds a bit different than your description of "theoretical physicists who teaches at a school of engineering"
 
From your WiKi citation,
Ph.D. from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology
assistant professor of theoretical physics at Cal Tech.
BP Chief Scientist in alternative and renewable energy sources.
Department of Energy's Under Secretary for Science
and is currently a theoretical physicist and director of the Center for Urban Science and Progress at New York University.
Sounds a bit different than your description of "theoretical physicists who teaches at a school of engineering"

If you mean you just posted more words, yes, but what you posted doesn't do a damned thing to affect my point: he's not a climate scientist in the field. Being "a scientist" doesn't mean a person is suddenly an expert in every scientific field. Neither does working on renewable energy technology. Neither does being an undersecretary of science in general.

Hell, publishing a book doesn't do the trick either. The only legitimate way to debunk it is to be in the field doing the research and getting papers published. (And don't bother with the conspiracy theory that dissenters are being 'hushed'. Their papers get rejected when their papers are crap).



I can see why he's cited here:
“What he does is he just takes potshots,” said Don Wuebbles, an atmospheric scientist at the University of Illinois, who has helped lead the National Climate Assessment, which Koonin’s book criticizes roundly. “He pulls one figure out of context, and then makes a whole chapter on it.”



A perfect description of just about every AGW denying thread here, all of which are more or less exactly like what I saw back when 9/11 truthing was a big thing..... people circling some falling debris and insisting it was falling "too fast", or bloviating about the melting point of steel.
 
But his points are still valid, and yes we continue to learn more about things that cause the climate to warm.
Yes, we are learning more. And that’s exactly why his points aren’t valid.
 
If you mean you just posted more words, yes, but what you posted doesn't do a damned thing to affect my point: he's not a climate scientist in the field. Being "a scientist" doesn't mean a person is suddenly an expert in every scientific field. Neither does working on renewable energy technology. Neither does being an undersecretary of science in general.

Hell, publishing a book doesn't do the trick either. The only legitimate way to debunk it is to be in the field doing the research and getting papers published. (And don't bother with the conspiracy theory that dissenters are being 'hushed'. Their papers get rejected when their papers are crap).



I can see why he's cited here:
“What he does is he just takes potshots,” said Don Wuebbles, an atmospheric scientist at the University of Illinois, who has helped lead the National Climate Assessment, which Koonin’s book criticizes roundly. “He pulls one figure out of context, and then makes a whole chapter on it.”



A perfect description of just about every AGW denying thread here, all of which are more or less exactly like what I saw back when 9/11 truthing was a big thing..... people circling some falling debris and insisting it was falling "too fast", or bloviating about the melting point of steel.
Except that he has worked in the field, and done plenty of modeling of systems.
There is still plenty of uncertainty in the climate sciences, and the people who claim catastrophic results, are not usually
the scientist themselves, but media reports who cherry pick combination of the worst scenarios.
Think of it this way, 2XCO2 ECS has a range of between 1.5 and 4.5 C, (No time frame attached).
The time frame comes from RCP scenarios, and represent a possible CO2 forcing levels in year 2100.
RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5 are the main ones used, and represent 2100 CO2 levels of 455ppm, 650ppm, 860ppm, and 1370ppm respectfully.
If a person were to combine the highest 2XCO2 sensitivity, with the highest RCP scenario,
it would predict that 2100 average global temperatures would cross 2 doubling s at 4.5 C per doubling, or greater than 9C of total average warming,
and about 8C of warming in the next 79 years. That sound fairly catastrophic.
If we look at reality for a bit, the growth in CO2 level, has been between 2 and 3 ppm per year, for 20 years,
and even with growth might reach 4 to 5 ppm by year 2100, if no technology improvements happen.
That would put us in line for RCP6.0, for a real business as usual scenario, again assuming no real technology improvements.
How realistic is the idea of doubling the CO2 level causing 4.5C of warming?
First off, the simple forcing warming for 2XCO2 is about 1.1C, so to get to 4.5C requires a feedback factor of 4.09.
We can verify this by simply taking 1.1 X 4.09 = 4.49,
Is a 4.09 feedback factor possible? not really, because we very real pre 1950 warming of about .29 C (HadCrcut4 decade averaged),
and warming since 1950 of .564C. We also have the IPCC net forcing warming since 1950 of .516C.
This leaves .05C of possible warming from feedbacks, but if we used the 4.09 feedback factor on the pre 1950 input of .29C,
it would be required to produce (.29 X 4.09) = 1.18C -.29C =.896 C of additional warming.
Because we only have .05C of unknown warming, the 2XCO2 amount of 4.5C is too high, as is the 3C ECS.
In fact the observed response, to a 70 year old input, can only support a feedback factor of 1.17, or a 2XCO2 ECS of 1.28C.
 
Except that he has worked in the field, and done plenty of modeling of systems.
There is still plenty of uncertainty in the climate sciences, and the people who claim catastrophic results, are not usually
the scientist themselves, but media reports who cherry pick combination of the worst scenarios.
Not at all. Where do you get this nonsense? Name me one scientific organization anywhere in the planet which, in its public statements on the matter, has denied that this is a potentially catastrophic problem?
 
From your WiKi citation,
Ph.D. from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology
assistant professor of theoretical physics at Cal Tech.
BP Chief Scientist in alternative and renewable energy sources.
Department of Energy's Under Secretary for Science
and is currently a theoretical physicist and director of the Center for Urban Science and Progress at New York University.
Sounds a bit different than your description of "theoretical physicists who teaches at a school of engineering"
So he gets paid by British Petroleum?
 
Not at all. Where do you get this nonsense? Name me one scientific organization anywhere in the planet which, in its public statements on the matter, has denied that this is a potentially catastrophic problem?
Why would the opinions of scientific organizations have any merit?
Also the idea of a catastrophic problem is only from combining The high level, low probability events.
 
Me: speechless.

There’s nothing left to say.
I am guessing that you do not understand that the positions taken by scientific organizations, do not have to pass any type of peer review,
and may not even reflect the views of the membership.
 
I am guessing that you do not understand that the positions taken by scientific organizations, do not have to pass any type of peer review,
and may not even reflect the views of the membership.
But they do. If they start spouting nonsense, the firestorm from their membership would destroy them. Ditto for all the standardized textbooks currently on the subject.
 
I am guessing that you do not understand that the positions taken by scientific organizations, do not have to pass any type of peer review,
and may not even reflect the views of the membership.

So they just pull it out of their ass like the deniers in this forum? Really?
Why exactly would a scientist belong to an organization that did not support mainstream science?
If the science that they support is not fully "vetted", then who should we turn to? Deniers in an online chat forum? Really?
BTW! I have made my decision. I am going to listen to mainstream scientific organizations rather than denier dilettantes in an online chat forum.
 
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But they do. If they start spouting nonsense, the firestorm from their membership would destroy them. Ditto for all the standardized textbooks currently on the subject.
They can make "if", "then", statements without much pushback.
So they can say something like, " According to the business as usual scenario, simulations show warming of up to 6C by years 2100."
It would not be a lie, but would be misleading, it also might help keep the grant money flowing!
Why would it be misleading, well the business as usual is usually RCP8.5 which requires a CO2 level of 1370 ppm by year 2100,
which is a growth rate 4 times higher than the average of the last 20 years, for the next 79 years,
Also there is no empirical evidence to support mid to high levels of amplified feedbacks, they only exists inside the models!
 
So they just pull it out of their ass like the deniers in this forum? Really?
Why exactly would a scientist belong to an organization that did not support mainstream science?
If the science that they support is not fully "vetted", then who should we turn to? Deniers in an online chat forum? Really?
BTW! I have made my decision. I am going to listen to mainstream scientific organizations rather than denier dilettantes in an online chat forum.
Nothing is untrue, they are conditional statements.
The scientific organizations help the members network, and promote funding sources for grants,
and sometimes lobby for certain type of funding, that will benefit their membership.
 
Nothing is untrue, they are conditional statements.
The scientific organizations help the members network, and promote funding sources for grants,
and sometimes lobby for certain type of funding, that will benefit their membership.

See my last sentence.
 
“Scientists who have spent their careers studying climate science said that Koonin’s critiques are superficial, misleading and marred by overgeneralization. The science at the core of “Unsettled” is fatally out of date, they say, and is based on the 2013 physical science report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

Since then, climate scientists have continued to learn more about the intensity and potentially catastrophic disruption of a warming climate. And while a decade ago, the effects of climate change still seemed a future threat, its impacts—sea level rise; shrinking glaciers; more extreme and frequent storms; drought and wildfire—already are being felt around the world.

The most recent scientific evidence, which will be covered in the IPCC update due out in August, has increased researchers’ confidence that human activity is the driving force in the current warming. Climate attribution studies in the last five years have shown that recent heat waves would have been all but impossible without the effect of greenhouse gas pollution. Other new research suggests that global warming has intensified extreme rainfall over parts of North America, and that overheated oceans are increasing the intensity of the tropical storms. Koonin’s book does not take these studies into account, and when he does cite recent studies, stresses their uncertainties rather than the findings, which affirm humanity’s role in the planet’s changes.

“The bottom line is that despite uncertainties in the magnitude and patterns of natural climate variability, human-caused climate change fingerprints have been identified in pretty much every aspect of climate change scientists have looked at,” said Benjamin Santer, an atmospheric scientist and leading climate modeler at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. “
Of course that do. They make a living from producing the climate extreme literature for the left wing. There is plenty of contridictory evidence by scientist on the causes, effects and overall results of the claimed climate evidence.
 
Of course that do. They make a living from producing the climate extreme literature for the left wing. There is plenty of contridictory evidence by scientist on the causes, effects and overall results of the claimed climate evidence.
No. This doesn’t happen in any other kind of science. Hasn’t in the history of science. It would be weird if the entire scientific community was now engaged in some massive conspiracy to do it now.

All the apparent contradictions have been explained and straightened out too now.

“Nearly all actively publishing climate scientists (97–98%[3]) support the consensus on anthropogenic climate change,[4][5] and the remaining 2% of contrarian studies either cannot be replicated or contain errors.[6] A 2019 study found scientific consensus to be at 100%.[2]
 
No. This doesn’t happen in any other kind of science. Hasn’t in the history of science. It would be weird if the entire scientific community was now engaged in some massive conspiracy to do it now.

All the apparent contradictions have been explained and straightened out too now.

“Nearly all actively publishing climate scientists (97–98%[3]) support the consensus on anthropogenic climate change,[4][5] and the remaining 2% of contrarian studies either cannot be replicated or contain errors.[6] A 2019 study found scientific consensus to be at 100%.[2]
You should read up on eugenics! Quite a few top Universities had eugenics programs.
and it was widely accepted, and it was all BS!
 
Well folks, there's yet another opportunity for people with no training and experience in the field to pretend that their ignorance is not merely as good as but is in fact better than knowledge of those who have devoted their careers to this subject.

le sigh



And, apparently, theoretical physicists who teaches at a school of engineering. What the hell does he know about climate science? At least Dyson guy admitted that he does not know much of anything about the technical details in the field.


I wonder how he would feel if an animal husbandry expert wrote him to let him know that physicists have gotten their math all wrong for decades and he, the animal husbandry expert, *just knows* how math should really work.




Christ, I'd love to see one of you require a lifesaving bit of brain surgery which could be pulled off just fine, but instead you refuse to go through with it on the ground that you have personally figured out that neuroscience has got it all wrong, and you *just know* that the proper remedy is to drink a glass of cranberry juice soaked in rose petals every night before bed. Then maybe I'd believe you actually do think this AGW denier crap is valid, rather than just slinging it for partisan ends.

And yet this interglacial is not as warm as any interglacial over the lat half million years.

This part of this interglacial is not warmer than the previous most warm parts of the interglacial.

ALL of the contributing factors to AGW are at their peak right now, but warming is not.

Go figure.


Palaeotemperature graphs compressed together
 
No. This doesn’t happen in any other kind of science. Hasn’t in the history of science. It would be weird if the entire scientific community was now engaged in some massive conspiracy to do it now.

All the apparent contradictions have been explained and straightened out too now.

“Nearly all actively publishing climate scientists (97–98%[3]) support the consensus on anthropogenic climate change,[4][5] and the remaining 2% of contrarian studies either cannot be replicated or contain errors.[6] A 2019 study found scientific consensus to be at 100%.[2]

Why are we NOT at the warmest temperature of the last half million years?
 
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