Putin's dirty bomb strategy

[NWRatCon]

Two things we know about Putin's mentality: one, if he blames the enemy of doing it, it is what he plans to do himself; and two, he cannot "lose". When he is failing, he lashes out indiscriminately. He is quite the typical abuser, actually; a narcissistic sociopath.

What has me concerned is that early in the war (March 5), the Russian propaganda arm was actively promoting the idea that Ukraine would use a dirty bomb. Russia, without evidence, says Ukraine making nuclear "dirty bomb" (Reuters). It's an idiotic claim, frankly, as Ukrainians are fighting in their own territory. Moreover, this was right after Russian forces had taken over Chernobyl and immediately prior to the attack on Zaporizhzhia. Russia's seizure of nuclear power plant raises international concerns (NPR).

At the time I thought it was a cover for an attack on a Ukrainian nuclear facility (it hadn't happened yet), in case there was a meltdown. Now, however, I think it is more sinister.

Having lost the initiative, and even being pushed back by Ukrainian forces, I think Putin's fallback is to destroy as much of Ukraine as possible, then withdraw what's left of his army. But, with EU unity, and pledges to rebuild a la the Marshall plan, Ukraine might bounce back too quickly, and more unified.

So, I think his plan, now, is to "salt the earth" in Ukraine. He has the ability to make a long range attack, and what better way to make the territory uninhabitable than radiation, like Chernobyl? The fissile material is in his control, it has the signature of Ukrainian sources, and he can blame it on an "accident" or Ukrainian sabotage, and with a seat on the Security Council, he can block any investigation, condemnation or prosecution. It's devious enough for a crazed KGB operative who's never gotten over losing the cold war, and whose hatred of "the west" is pathological.

I woke up sweating this morning thinking about it.

 

[Risky Thicket]

Putin has fought himself into the corner. There are not many viable ways for him to end his situation without facing massive international and domestic shame and retribution. And the shame grows daily as the tragedy in Ukraine continues.

As I stated a previous thread, it is my belief that left to his own decisions Putin will likely use either chemical (chlorine) or biological weapons in Ukraine first. He has used them in the recent past in other wars.

Depending on the success of a Russian chemical or bio-weapon attack and the resulting actions from Ukraine, NATO and the world, Putin may use tactical nuclear weapons.

 

[NWRatCon]

Putin has fought himself into the corner. There are not many viable ways for him to end his situation without facing massive international and domestic shame and retribution. And the shame grows daily as the tragedy in Ukraine continues.

As I stated a previous thread, it is my belief that left to his own decisions Putin will likely use either chemical (chlorine) or biological weapons in Ukraine first. He has used them in the recent past in other wars.

Depending on the success of a Russian chemical or bio-weapon attack and the resulting actions from Ukraine, NATO and the world, Putin may use tactical nuclear weapons.

That had been my thought, too. But, trying to think like a spook, I thought about his penchant for denial and deniability. I remembered some early articles about Chernobyl, when I came across the TASS reports. That's when I had my "oh, shit!" epiphany. Using Ukrainian materials, he could build in confusion that would (potentially) require/delay investigation. Moreover, chemicals dissipate, radiation doesn't. It's also low tech.

 

[Rogue Valley]

Be very afraid.....

Russia destroys Chernobyl lab, gaining ‘highly active samples’

The Russian military has reportedly destroyed a laboratory near the decommissioned Chernobyl nuclear power plant that was working to improve the management of nuclear waste and contained “hig…

thehill.com

3.23.22
The Russian military has reportedly destroyed a laboratory near the decommissioned Chernobyl nuclear power plant that was working to improve the management of nuclear waste and contained "highly active" samples. The laboratory, which was created with the cooperation of the European Union, sought to improve the infrastructure for handling radioactive materials. According to the agency, the lab cost 6 million euros. The facility also held "highly active samples" and "samples of radionuclides" which the agency said are now in the "hands of the enemy" as opposed to those of a "civilized world."

This lab, partnered with the EU, was involved in research to discover better ways to dispose of nuclear waste.

Now Russia has stolen radioactive samples, which may contain markers of lab ownership.

 

[Nomad4Ever]

Two things we know about Putin's mentality: one, if he blames the enemy of doing it, it is what he plans to do himself; and two, he cannot "lose". When he is failing, he lashes out indiscriminately.

The situation is becoming close to unsalvageable in my opinion.

Globally, Russia's status as a military or even regional power is gone (something I suspect Putin cares deeply about). The public perception (at least in the US and EU) went from many people talking about Russia as a near peer adversary to the US to thinking of Russia's military as a joke. Maybe the global consciousness will finally give the poor French some respite from being the go to when people think of "military failure".

Domestically, the economy is ruined. Even if sanctions were lifted today, after Putin seized so many private businesses most wouldn't come back without the sanctions. Foreign investment will stall long after this war. As long as Putin is in power nobody will want to do business with Russia.

The chances of salvaging any kind of political victory in Ukraine diminish by the day. At this point it is becoming a possibility he could even lose the Donbass or even Crimea depending on how badly this goes in the coming weeks. After the blood they have shed, I don't think Ukraine will agree to recognize the Donbass. A lack of clear military victory in Ukraine is humiliating. A defeat would completely destroy Putin's image as a strongman.

I too am scared what a defeated, humiliated egotistical man who deeply cares about his perception of "strength" will do. The best we can hope for is his removal from power.

 

[Checkerboard Strangler]

They DO contain "forensic signatures" that amount to a "fingerprint".
That was one of my father's specialties, because his fields of interest were pulsed power and weapons effects.

And just blocking the UN from investigating won't be enough, by the way.
Putin cannot stop all investigations, he can only stop the UN Security Council.

 

[Risky Thicket]

That had been my thought, too. But, trying to think like a spook, I thought about his penchant for denial and deniability. I remembered some early articles about Chernobyl, when I came across the TASS reports. That's when I had my "oh, shit!" epiphany. Using Ukrainian materials, he could build in confusion that would (potentially) require/delay investigation. Moreover, chemicals dissipate, radiation doesn't. It's also low tech.

I can't argue with your reasoning. It is certainly a possibility.

We probably agree that once Putin uses even one tactical nuke the gloves come off and NATO, including the US, cross the borders and move into Ukraine, escalation.

We do agree that Putin appears to be a narcissistic sociopathic. For reasons worthy of discussion on another thread, more of world seems to be attracted to authoritarian "leaders" and that can only embolden the narcissistic sociopaths. We could run a quick look in the DSM-V and discover that people such as Putin do not have the ability to feel compassion for the lives of other people. We see that clearly in Ukraine.

Yes, Putin, IMHO, would have no concern whatsoever using Chernobyl to make a dirty bomb. Or they could easily let the damn thing overheat and cause a regional crisis while claiming fuel rods heated up and a caused nuclear incident that was not Russia's fault.