Putin, two scenarios I see for his attack on Ukraine

[independentusa]

Scenario number one. Putin has been brilliant in his thinking and this has played out as he felt it would. He would attack Ukraine telling his people he was going after the Nazi leadership and Anti-Russian leaders in Ukraine. As soon as he did, NATO and its partners would apply sanctions which he had prepared for and supply Ukraine with weapons. This would show the people of Russia that NATO was dangerous to Russian sovereignty and security and thus allow Putin to not only remain in power, but to conquer Ukraine and make it a part of Russia.
Scenario two, Putin was so stupid and uninformed that he did not understand either the backbone of NATO or the willingness of Ukraine to fight. He went in thinking it would be a matter of just a few days with few casualties and that his money would be available for him to keep off the worst of the sanctions. He thought his military was better than it turned out to be and the world, including Switzerland have cut him off from his money and from even his so called friends.
You tell me which scenario you think is more likely?

 

[Juin]

Scenario number one. Putin has been brilliant in his thinking and this has played out as he felt it would. He would attack Ukraine telling his people he was going after the Nazi leadership and Anti-Russian leaders in Ukraine. As soon as he did, NATO and its partners would apply sanctions which he had prepared for and supply Ukraine with weapons. This would show the people of Russia that NATO was dangerous to Russian sovereignty and security and thus allow Putin to not only remain in power, but to conquer Ukraine and make it a part of Russia.
Scenario two, Putin was so stupid and uninformed that he did not understand either the backbone of NATO or the willingness of Ukraine to fight. He went in thinking it would be a matter of just a few days with few casualties and that his money would be available for him to keep off the worst of the sanctions. He thought his military was better than it turned out to be and the world, including Switzerland have cut him off from his money and from even his so called friends.
You tell me which scenario you think is more likely?

I believe there is Truth to both.

 

[Jkca1]

RE: truth to both

I think Putin was hoping to take the Ukraine, or parts of the Ukraine for years. Seeing the recent political stife in the US Putin started to belive, and so did many of his advisers, that NATO and more importantly the US, would now be powerless to stop him. He was right. Of course he knew about the economic sanctions, but didn't care as much about that issue as he did about sticking it to NATO and the US. Because he has absolute power, he can do what he wants, which in many ways gives him an advantage, at least short term. In short, Putin got what he wanted. The US and NATO look weak and ineffective.

What also astounds me is that "our intelligence communities" were almost blindsided by Putin's actions. We can go back just a month ago and see examples where smart people still thought Putin would not invade the Ukraine. But the truth is that as soon as there was talk of the Ukraine becoming part of NATO the Russian invasion seed was planted in Putin's mind, if not earlier.

Having accomplished making NATO/US look weak and the almost inevitable successful invasion of the Ukraine, what are the next steps in Putin's end game? This is where some serious speculating needs to happen.

Or put another way; Putin will soon have the chip of Ukrainian domination. What concessions could he get from the west that would free the Ukraine, either all of it of parts of it?

One thought by Dr. Harlan Ullman is “(Putin's) his major objective here is changing the security framework in Europe to something that resembled post 1997.”

NATO is a problem for Russia. Could Putin use the Ukrainian invasion to get concessions from NATO in exchange for some type of withdrawal? Maybe add something into the economic sector to entice Russia gets tossed into negotiations. That would be a win for Putin.

 

[jpn]

What also astounds me is that "our intelligence communities" were almost blindsided by Putin's actions. We can go back just a month ago and see examples where smart people still thought Putin would not invade the Ukraine. But the truth is that as soon as there was talk of the Ukraine becoming part of NATO the Russian invasion seed was planted in Putin's mind, if not earlier.

I don't believe that is true. US intelligence was out front of everyone in this.

It failed to prevent a war, but almost everything the U.S. said Russia would do in Ukraine has come to pass.​

​

The intelligence that President Joe Biden made public in a highly unusual step gave the world a preview of Vladimir Putin’s true intentions, robbing him of the element of surprise. It also gave the U.S. time to rally support from its allies on sanctions that in normal circumstances would have taken months to hash out.​

​

Last November, the U.S. privately warned allies in Europe that Putin had plans to invade Ukraine. Officials shared maps and intelligence outlining how Russia was planning to double troop numbers around Ukraine. They spelled out where Putin would place artillery, and ground, air and naval forces to strike its neighbor. They previewed how a series of cyber attacks and a drumbeat of disinformation would set the stage for an attack.​

 

[Jkca1]

I don't believe that is true. US intelligence was out front of everyone in this.

It failed to prevent a war, but almost everything the U.S. said Russia would do in Ukraine has come to pass.​

​

The intelligence that President Joe Biden made public in a highly unusual step gave the world a preview of Vladimir Putin’s true intentions, robbing him of the element of surprise. It also gave the U.S. time to rally support from its allies on sanctions that in normal circumstances would have taken months to hash out.​

​

Last November, the U.S. privately warned allies in Europe that Putin had plans to invade Ukraine. Officials shared maps and intelligence outlining how Russia was planning to double troop numbers around Ukraine. They spelled out where Putin would place artillery, and ground, air and naval forces to strike its neighbor. They previewed how a series of cyber attacks and a drumbeat of disinformation would set the stage for an attack.​

US intelligence was out front of everyone on this yet no one in NATO or the US could think of a way to prevent Putin from attacking the Ukraine? O those that had ideas were ignored? Or there were no good ideas to stop the invasion? Is that what you are suggesting? The invasion of the Ukraine was inevitable? I do not want to put words in your mouth so please clarify where needed.

 

[Juin]

RE: truth to both

I think Putin was hoping to take the Ukraine, or parts of the Ukraine for years.

I agree with that. Or at least keep Ukraine within his sphere of influence

Seeing the recent political stife in the US Putin started to belive, and so did many of his advisers, that NATO and more importantly the US, would now be powerless to stop him. He was right. Of course he knew about the economic sanctions, but didn't care as much about that issue as he did about sticking it to NATO and the US. Because he has absolute power, he can do what he wants, which in many ways gives him an advantage, at least short term. In short, Putin got what he wanted. The US and NATO look weak and ineffective.

I believe dictators can be brilliant, and do read democracies well. Problem is they become too brilliant for their own good. In all likelihood Putin did his calculations on sanctions very well. Most likely he calculated on the democracies implementing a careful, rational sanctions regime that maximises pain on Russia but at no cost to the democracies. Russia would have been just fine with that. What I believe he may not have factored in his calculations is that the democracies will go bonkers and throw the kitchen sink at him. The sanctions the democracies have embarked on will inflict serious pain on the democracies, but may also seriously damage, if not cripple Russia.

That is the problem with the brilliance of dictators when dealing with democracies. When democracies get mad, they get really mad. And when democracies get pissed off they can become quickly very dangerous.

What also astounds me is that "our intelligence communities" were almost blindsided by Putin's actions. We can go back just a month ago and see examples where smart people still thought Putin would not invade the Ukraine. But the truth is that as soon as there was talk of the Ukraine becoming part of NATO the Russian invasion seed was planted in Putin's mind, if not earlier.

I never believed Putin would invade Ukraine. At least not this year. My impression was that there just was no upside to Putin invading Ukraine. Germany and Europe was a huge cash cow for him, while Ukraine offered nothing but endless costs and bankruptcy. It was my estimation that it was a poor exchange losing the German cash cow in favour of the endless costs and debts of Ukraine. Plus Ukraine was always gonna be there right next to Russia. Why not wait for another different opportune moment?

Having accomplished making NATO/US look weak and the almost inevitable successful invasion of the Ukraine, what are the next steps in Putin's end game? This is where some serious speculating needs to happen.

There appears to be no other option than him struggling to see it through. Putin's survival and success- both internal and external- relies on his strong man image. It is being put severely to test in Ukrain. If he finishes strong, he may make it. If he finishes weak, his future is bleak.

Or put another way; Putin will soon have the chip of Ukrainian domination. What concessions could he get from the west that would free the Ukraine, either all of it of parts of it?

One thought by Dr. Harlan Ullman is “(Putin's) his major objective here is changing the security framework in Europe to something that resembled post 1997.”

NATO is a problem for Russia. Could Putin use the Ukrainian invasion to get concessions from NATO in exchange for some type of withdrawal? Maybe add something into the economic sector to entice Russia gets tossed into negotiations. That would be a win for Putin.

The problem is that at this point for him to get any Nato concessions he has to finish strong. Whether he likes it or not, at the moment the global impression is that his performance is weak