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President Zelensky predicts troubles for NATO member states if Russia seizes control of Ukraine

Rogue Valley

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President Zelensky predicts troubles for NATO member states if Russia seizes control of Ukraine

3.1.22
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on Tuesday reignited calls for more international assistance as Russia continues its warpath in Ukraine, warning of dire consequences across the continent should the country fall. The 44-year-old has refused to evacuate the capital city even as Russian forces continue to advance, delivering video updates and rousing speeches from an undisclosed, heavily guarded location near the city's center. "Our partners, if they are not ready to take Ukraine into NATO ... because Russia does not want Ukraine to be in NATO, should work out common security guarantees for Ukraine," Zelensky told the outlets. "This means that we have our territorial integrity, that our borders are protected, we have special relations with all our neighbors, we are completely safe, and the guarantors that give us security, they guarantee this legally," he added.

Since Russia invaded on Thursday, several NATO members have sent weapons to Ukraine and others have imposed hard-hitting sanctions against Russia. In the interviews, Zelensky predicted troubles ahead for neighboring NATO countries should Russia ultimately succeed in seizing Ukraine. In recent speeches, the president has worked to link the short-term security of Ukraine to the long-term geopolitical health of the West. "It is very important to know that if Ukraine falls, then all these [Russian] troops will be on the borders of your NATO member countries," Zelensky said. "And you will be facing the same question there."


Zelenskyy is right. If Ukraine falls and is occupied, Putin will be able to stage mass invasion forces directly on the borders of NATO members Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia. But there are also drawbacks for the Kremlin. The Russian military has lousy logistic capabilities which is why it limits invasions to neighboring countries. Russian supply convoys traveling across Ukraine woud get chewed up by NATO air superiority. In addition, Ukrainian partisans would be wreaking havoc on Russian battle units and supply convoys heading for the Western front. Who knows Ukraine better than Ukrainians?
 
President Zelensky predicts troubles for NATO member states if Russia seizes control of Ukraine

Zelenskyy is right. If Ukraine falls and is occupied, Putin will be able to stage mass invasion forces directly on the borders of NATO members Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia. But there are also drawbacks for the Kremlin. The Russian military has lousy logistic capabilities which is why it limits invasions to neighboring countries. Russian supply convoys traveling across Ukraine woud get chewed up by NATO air superiority. In addition, Ukrainian partisans would be wreaking havoc on Russian battle units and supply convoys heading for the Western front. Who knows Ukraine better than Ukrainians?
It is a quagmire, and should be viewed as the deposition of the Russian Oligarchy, thus most pressure on Putin, and a breakup of Russia.

 
If Russia attacked NATO members, NATO could and likely would target Russian military assets in Moscow itself. Incursions are easy to start when one's home territory is safe aka. the United States was happy to invade Iraq with little risk that Iraq may respond with an invasion of the parts of North America. Likewise Russians, disconnected from war on their home turf, may support a war in Ukraine that they can watch on TV but don't have to witness in their neighborhood. Attacking a NATO state would change that calculus completely; the response may well be attacks within Russia's borders.

So, I don't expect Russia to push into a NATO state's territory.
 
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The west will need to actively ostracize Russia indefinitely.
 
President Zelensky predicts troubles for NATO member states if Russia seizes control of Ukraine




Zelenskyy is right. If Ukraine falls and is occupied, Putin will be able to stage mass invasion forces directly on the borders of NATO members Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia. But there are also drawbacks for the Kremlin. The Russian military has lousy logistic capabilities which is why it limits invasions to neighboring countries. Russian supply convoys traveling across Ukraine woud get chewed up by NATO air superiority. In addition, Ukrainian partisans would be wreaking havoc on Russian battle units and supply convoys heading for the Western front. Who knows Ukraine better than Ukrainians?
Don't need a crystal ball to see that.
 
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