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Predictions for the 2016 Presidential Election

Glen Contrarian

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1. Trump will pick North Carolina governor Nikki Haley as his running mate - woman, Indian descent, daughter of immigrants, establishment Republican...and North Carolina is a 'battleground state'. (credit goes to the Thom Hartmann show for pointing this out).

2. Trump will lose. Oh, the margin between the polls will get smaller and smaller until about two or three weeks before the election, but then she will begin to pull away.

3. There will be no truly significant third-party candidate.

4. When Trump loses, for some reason I can't fathom him being graceful in defeat. He may surprise me, but I don't see it. I think instead that he'll claim that widespread voter fraud is to blame. If he does, there may be riots by his supporters...and of course he'll deny that he had anything to do with encouraging those riots.

5. This summer, at some point the FBI will bring out the latest on Hillary's e-mails - it will put her in a bad light, but she'll get past it. It won't hurt her level of support much, but it will rally quite a bit of the conservative base by giving them a reason to hate her more than they do Trump.

6. Late-night talk show hosts will have more material than they dreamed possible...at least until the second week of November.
 

Orly?

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Trump will win..

He will attack hillary like no other man dare..
 

OrphanSlug

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Way too early predictions...

ClintonTrumpPredict(1).jpg

1. Hillary wins by a landslide (at least 347 to 191) no matter who she picks as a running mate and no matter who Trump picks as a running mate. Independents and moderates will show up and vote for Hillary out of pure fear of Trump's rhetoric during the primary campaign (which will render his pivot to Hillary as useless.) Trump files suit in at least 5 States claiming fraud of some flavor.

2. Trump spends the entire general election campaign complaining about a lack of GOP support, who by party will be far more focused on Congressional Seats up for grabs. Right wing commentary start spending all their time talking about the loss of the Republican Party, loss of social conservatism, loss of "American Values," headed for communism, etc.

3. The media / commentary / late night talk shows / political cartoonists will have an epic field day with this campaign.

4. The stock market will act erratic and abandon what little market fundamentals they are paying attention to today.

5. Exclusively because Hillary is nominated, the FBI and Justice Department will magically quit talking about email servers, classified data, and/or Benghazi. (Republicans will consequently freak the hell out, Sanders will make a passing comment on MSNBC.)

6. On election night there will be a record number of early "calls" on State results. Trump will flip out as a result, probably add that somehow to the lawsuits claiming fraud.

7. Also on election night, in Houston and Chicago people will end up shot entirely over complications from results.

8. We, right here at DP, will have a drinking game on election night and have to throw back a shot every time Trump says "fantastic" or "amazing" or "wonderful" in any context. If he repeats the word back to back it is an immediate 3 shot penalty for us all. Three times... well, you better have a huge bottle of something. Game starts at 5pm EST and ends when someone is still posting and everyone else is passed out / dead.

9. No more than 2 days post the results someone in the Texas legislature tries another round of secession talks. (Alabama tries to join.)

All of this is subject to change based on party shenanigans before the convention, on both sides.
 

Chomsky

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I'll be happy to play:

1. Trump will pick North Carolina governor Nikki Haley as his running mate - woman, Indian descent, daughter of immigrants, establishment Republican...and North Carolina is a 'battleground state'. (credit goes to the Thom Hartmann show for pointing this out).
A pick that seems pretty logical on paper in terms of winning the general, but after listening to Mr. Trump this morning on Morning Joe, I believe Trump wants to definitely effect a change through legislation above & beyond that achievable by Executive Order. Consequently, I believe he'll try to get a heavy policy wonk with legislative gravitas; i.e., someone who can work with the GOP Congress to push his matters forward. However, I have no idea who that may be.

2. Trump will lose. Oh, the margin between the polls will get smaller and smaller until about two or three weeks before the election, but then she will begin to pull away.
I wouldn't be so sure about this. He has some crossover appeal, and I believe can appeal strongly to some Indie segments. I think he has a decent shot to win.

3. There will be no truly significant third-party candidate.
Agreed. Definitely not on the Dem's side, but there could be some GOP threats, which rather than being serious are political jockeying to extricate something of value from the party in order to drop their threat.

4. When Trump loses, for some reason I can't fathom him being graceful in defeat. He may surprise me, but I don't see it. I think instead that he'll claim that widespread voter fraud is to blame. If he does, there may be riots by his supporters...and of course he'll deny that he had anything to do with encouraging those riots.
No, I don't see widespread violence - but he will definitely not go easily; if indeed he even must go.

5. This summer, at some point the FBI will bring out the latest on Hillary's e-mails - it will put her in a bad light, but she'll get past it. It won't hurt her level of support much, but it will rally quite a bit of the conservative base by giving them a reason to hate her more than they do Trump.
Yes, there will be a final release of info, and a declaration of 'no prosecution' due to the lack of evidence in direct support of her breaking any criminal statute. She & the Dems will declare her the most inspected & vetted Presidential candidate ever, and widely celebrate her new-found innocence.

6. Late-night talk show hosts will have more material than they dreamed possible...at least until the second week of November.
In spades! :lamo

Thanks for the post! :thumbs:
 

disneydude

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1. Trump will pick North Carolina governor Nikki Haley as his running mate - woman, Indian descent, daughter of immigrants, establishment Republican...and North Carolina is a 'battleground state'. (credit goes to the Thom Hartmann show for pointing this out).

2. Trump will lose. Oh, the margin between the polls will get smaller and smaller until about two or three weeks before the election, but then she will begin to pull away.

3. There will be no truly significant third-party candidate.

4. When Trump loses, for some reason I can't fathom him being graceful in defeat. He may surprise me, but I don't see it. I think instead that he'll claim that widespread voter fraud is to blame. If he does, there may be riots by his supporters...and of course he'll deny that he had anything to do with encouraging those riots.

5. This summer, at some point the FBI will bring out the latest on Hillary's e-mails - it will put her in a bad light, but she'll get past it. It won't hurt her level of support much, but it will rally quite a bit of the conservative base by giving them a reason to hate her more than they do Trump.

6. Late-night talk show hosts will have more material than they dreamed possible...at least until the second week of November.


I agree with all of your predictions! I was thinking that Trump would try to get Nikki Hailey....mainly because he can't afford to lose North Carolina and North Carolina is looking like a strong swing state this time around.
 

disneydude

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Carly Fiorina will somehow try to slither her way onto the ticket as Trump's running mate.
 

Captain Adverse

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1. Trump will pick North Carolina governor Nikki Haley as his running mate - woman, Indian descent, daughter of immigrants, establishment Republican...and North Carolina is a 'battleground state'. (credit goes to the Thom Hartmann show for pointing this out).

I have no idea and couldn't care less. It's Trump I am voting for.

2. Trump will lose. Oh, the margin between the polls will get smaller and smaller until about two or three weeks before the election, but then she will begin to pull away.

I don't agree. As mentioned by another member above, he has more crossover appeal than you progressives think. I'll wait till election night rather than make rash predictions.

3. There will be no truly significant third-party candidate.

So?

4. When Trump loses, for some reason I can't fathom him being graceful in defeat. He may surprise me, but I don't see it. I think instead that he'll claim that widespread voter fraud is to blame. If he does, there may be riots by his supporters...and of course he'll deny that he had anything to do with encouraging those riots.

Umm...I don't think so. The only people who have been rioting so far are anti-Trump activists. The worst that will happen is many Trump supporters will become more anti-government than they already are now.

5. This summer, at some point the FBI will bring out the latest on Hillary's e-mails - it will put her in a bad light, but she'll get past it. It won't hurt her level of support much, but it will rally quite a bit of the conservative base by giving them a reason to hate her more than they do Trump.

Depends on how bad a light this shines on her. She already has a sizeable number of detractors evidenced by Bernie supporters. Bad news in this area might serve to swing Dems and uncommitted independents into the Trump camp.

6. Late-night talk show hosts will have more material than they dreamed possible...at least until the second week of November.

As usual with every election. :shrug:
 

Glen Contrarian

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Way too early predictions...

View attachment 67200936

1. Hillary wins by a landslide (at least 347 to 191) no matter who she picks as a running mate and no matter who Trump picks as a running mate. Independents and moderates will show up and vote for Hillary out of pure fear of Trump's rhetoric during the primary campaign (which will render his pivot to Hillary as useless.) Trump files suit in at least 5 States claiming fraud of some flavor.

I hope your first sentence is right...I want to believe it, but I don't want to jinx it.... Your last sentence may well be spot on.

2. Trump spends the entire general election campaign complaining about a lack of GOP support, who by party will be far more focused on Congressional Seats up for grabs. Right wing commentary start spending all their time talking about the loss of the Republican Party, loss of social conservatism, loss of "American Values," headed for communism, etc.

Yep!

3. The media / commentary / late night talk shows / political cartoonists will have an epic field day with this campaign.

Never in their wildest dreams...I've heard of getting paid for doing what one loves to do, but this is just too much fun for them!

4. The stock market will act erratic and abandon what little market fundamentals they are paying attention to today.

No...I think they'll be happier once Hillary wins, mainly because she's a rational actor...and he's not.

5. Exclusively because Hillary is nominated, the FBI and Justice Department will magically quit talking about email servers, classified data, and/or Benghazi. (Republicans will consequently freak the hell out, Sanders will make a passing comment on MSNBC.)

That may well be true - stay tuned, same bat-crap channel, same bat-s**t-crazy right-wing commentators....

6. On election night there will be a record number of early "calls" on State results. Trump will flip out as a result, probably add that somehow to the lawsuits claiming fraud.

Strongly agree!

7. Also on election night, in Houston and Chicago people will end up shot entirely over complications from results.

I hope it's only those two places.

8. We, right here at DP, will have a drinking game on election night and have to throw back a shot every time Trump says "fantastic" or "amazing" or "wonderful" in any context. If he repeats the word back to back it is an immediate 3 shot penalty for us all. Three times... well, you better have a huge bottle of something. Game starts at 5pm EST and ends when someone is still posting and everyone else is passed out / dead.

I think the following morning should be declared a once-every-four-years federal holiday - National Hangover Day.

9. No more than 2 days post the results someone in the Texas legislature tries another round of secession talks. (Alabama tries to join.)

Not sure about Alabama, but strongly agree about Texas...and I'll personally post a thread encouraging them to go, and don't let the door hit them on the ass on the way out!

All of this is subject to change based on party shenanigans before the convention, on both sides.

I bookmarked this thread - I gotta see how well we all did!
 

Glen Contrarian

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It's Trump I am voting for.

I really had a lot of respect for you. Had. I really thought you had more self-awareness than that, than to vote for someone who couldn't hold Herbert Hoover's jockstrap, much less that of any of our other presidents. I mean...really - this guy brags, "How handsome am I?", "I'm really rich!", "I'll be the best job creator God ever made!"

This is the guy you would have represent the American people?

And you're going to vote for him? I'm not disappointed at any of the other Trump supporters on this site - I expected nothing more from them. But you? I really am disappointed - I really thought you were more self-aware than that.
 

Captain Adverse

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I really had a lot of respect for you. Had. I really thought you had more self-awareness than that, than to vote for someone who couldn't hold Herbert Hoover's jockstrap, much less that of any of our other presidents. I mean...really - this guy brags, "How handsome am I?", "I'm really rich!", "I'll be the best job creator God ever made!"

This is the guy you would have represent the American people?

And you're going to vote for him? I'm not disappointed at any of the other Trump supporters on this site - I expected nothing more from them. But you? I really am disappointed - I really thought you were more self-aware than that.

Hmm, well sorry you feel that way...but this isn't news.

Had you been following my posts through the prior weeks/months on this topic you'd see pretty clearly what my position was and how it came about.

But to briefly reiterate; I was first compelled to examine his campaign after hearing/seeing all the attempts at character assassination in the media.

I saw that most of the negative hype was created by activists trying to create incidents.

I saw that Trump's appeal was based on a willingness to just speak his mind like any common citizen, and like any common citizen sometimes made mistakes or was misinterpreted.

Having grown up in NYC I am well-aware of The Donald and his brand of salesmanship. That's why I knew most of the negative press was, and is, wrong about him.

I could go on, but I doubt it would make a difference.

The bottom line is that in a choice between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump I'm going Trump.

It is also evidence that well-educated and thoughtful people find Trump a viable candidate.

Something that might surprise naysayers like yourself come election time.
 
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MTAtech

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When is that Trump University trial scheduled?
 

Quag

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My prediction is that America is going to get a terrible president
 

Lutherf

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June 8th - Having edged Hillary by 7% in California, Bernie Sanders finds that he only picks up 95 of the 548 available delegates and launches into a tirade wherein he refers to Hillary as "unpleasant" and "a fine woman but with questionable political connections". Clinton has him executed.

June 9th - Donald Trump appears on CNN. He is asked about the Sanders assassination and blames it on Cruz.

July 4th - Clinton and Trump both appear at Battery Park in Manhattan for the fireworks. Halfway through the show Trump, Clinton and Christie are discovered to be engaging in a threesome while Bill is drilling Melania in the limo. MSNBC reports on this and Chris Matthews gushes over how it really shows the future of bi-partisan politics. Rachel Maddow sulks away and crosses Hillary off her wish list.

August 16th - Trump announces a new deal with Enrique Nieto in which Mexico will build a gigantic wall from San Diego to Brownsville, TX. Along the wall there will be casinos every 150 miles and Mexico will receive 60% of the gaming revenue while the US will get 60% of F&B plus 80% of entertainment. The Rio Grande will now be available for cocktail cruises.

September 6th - Hillary is formally indicted for espionage after it is disclosed that her speeches Goldman Sachs all included coded production predictions from Rosneft and Gazprom. A Quinnipiac poll shows that after the indictment her polling numbers increased 8%.

October 3rd - National Enquirer reports that Trump's small hands are due to Body Dysmorphia and that his real name is Donna. They further reveal that he is the son/daughter of Canadian immigrants who were never nationalized. Matt Drudge buries the story and Breitbart organizes a tractor pull in the Enquirer parking lot.

November 8th - 485,000,000 Americans show up at the polls to cast their vote. The line at Precinct #8 in Dekalb County stretches down I20 and gets mixed up with the line from Birmingham. General chaos ensues when voters in Guam flock to the one polling place and the island topples into the ocean. Hank Johnson, speaking about the catastrophe, says "See! Y'all thought I was crazy."

November 9th - With 4% of the vote counted the election is called for Hugh Romney. Romney, who was totally unaware that he was even under consideration, noted that it had been 40 years since he handed out those flyers in KC and figured it was groovy that they finally worked.
 
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polgara

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June 8th - Having edged Hillary by 7% in California, Bernie Sanders finds that he only picks up 95 of the 548 available delegates and launches into a tirade wherein he refers to Hillary as "unpleasant" and "a fine woman but with questionable political connections". Clinton has him executed.

June 9th - Donald Trump appears on CNN. He is asked about the Sanders assassination and blames it on Cruz.

July 4th - Clinton and Trump both appear at Battery Park in Manhattan for the fireworks. Halfway through the show Trump, Clinton and Christie are discovered to be engaging in a threesome while Bill is drilling Melania in the limo. MSNBC reports on this and Chris Matthews gushes over how it really shows the future of bi-partisan politics. Rachel Maddow sulks away and crosses Hillary off her wish list.

August 16th - Trump announces a new deal Enrique Nieto in which Mexico will build a gigantic wall from San Diego to Brownsville, TX. Along the wall there will be casinos every 150 miles and Mexico will receive 60% of the gaming revenue while the US will get 60% of F&B plus 80% of entertainment. The Rio Grande will now be available for cocktail cruises.

September 6th - Hillary is formally indicted for espionage after it is disclosed that her speeches Goldman Sachs all included coded production predictions from Rosneft and Gazprom. A Quinnipiac poll shows that after the indictment her polling numbers increased 8%.

October 3rd - National Enquirer reports that Trump's small hands are due to Body Dysmorphia and that his real name is Donna. They further reveal that he is the son/daughter of Canadian immigrants who were never nationalized. Matt Drudge buries the story and Breitbart organizes a tractor pull in the Enquirer parking lot.

November 8th - 485,000,000 Americans show up at the polls to cast their vote. The line at Precinct #8 in Dekalb County stretched down I20 and gets mixed up with the line from Birmingham. General chaos ensues when voters in Guam flock to the one polling place and the island topples into the ocean. Hank Johnson, speaking about the catastrophe, says "See! Y'all though I was crazy."

November 9th - With 4% of the vote counted the election is called for Hugh Romney. Romney, who was totally unaware that he was even under consideration, noted that it had been 40 years since he handed out those flyers in KC and figured it was groovy that they finally worked.

Greetimgs. Lutherf. :2wave:

Excellent! :thumbs: Funniest thing I have read in a loooong time! :lamo

Since you have an imagination, I'm not embarrassed to share this - today when I was sitting on the deck while the little dogs were busy running at top speed in the back yard, thoroughly enjoying themselves, I marveled at how blue the sky was, with the biggest puffiest white clouds I have seen in a long time. While I was watching the clouds, one decided to show off a little, and it turned itself into a huge white dragon with a long neck, wings and all! I clapped, since I couldn't think to do anything else, and just admired the show. Too soon it changed back into a cloud, but that was sure fun while it lasted. Mother Nature is sometimes full of surprises, isn't she, but that trick made my day! :happy:
 

Somerville

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1. Trump will pick North Carolina governor Nikki Haley as his running mate - woman, Indian descent, daughter of immigrants, establishment Republican...and North Carolina is a 'battleground state'. (credit goes to the Thom Hartmann show for pointing this out).

(snip)

Nikki Hailey is the governor of SOUTH Carolina - also don't forget that she has converted to southern-style evangelical Christianity. Mrs Hailey's parents are still Hindu believers.
 

imagep

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Nikki Hailey is the governor of SOUTH Carolina - also don't forget that she has converted to southern-style evangelical Christianity. Mrs Hailey's parents are still Hindu believers.

Yup. She was born as Nimrata Nikki Randhawam, then changed her name. Most people who voted for her didn't have a clue that she was one of "those people", else they wouldn't have voted for her.

Nikki also despises Trump. She would never ever ever be his running mate. He won't ask, and she wouldn't accept if he did ask. She would also have to endure birther attacks, seeing that neither of her parents were US citizens when she was born and that she has a sister who is a citizen of Singapore. She's a citizen, but she might also be considered an anchor baby.

Trump may be wise to pick Kasich. Kasich is a fairly moderate republican, but not so liberal that he would run off the far right. Kasich could bring a lot of people to Trumps ticket.

Somehow I have a feeling that he will pick one of his children for VP though - he's not going to do anything "normal".
 
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Somerville

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(snip)

It is also evidence that well-educated and thoughtful people find Trump a viable candidate.

Something that might surprise naysayers like yourself come election time.

That "well educated" bit just ain't so, you may believe it but all of the polling says otherwise

Who Are Donald Trump's Supporters, Really?

Here are four features of Trump's constituency:

They Didn’t Go to College

The single best predictor of Trump support in the GOP primary is the absence of a college degree. In an analysis of Trump's blowout win in New Hampshire, Evan Soltas determined that the factor explaining most of the variance in Trump's support in New Hampshire was education.

“For every 1 percentage point more college graduates over the age of 25, Donald Trump's share of votes falls by 0.65 percentage points,” he said.

Diplomas are what Ron Brownstein calls the “new Republican fault line.”

(. . .)

If there were one question to identify a Trump supporter if you knew nothing else about him, what might it be? “Are you a middle-aged white man who hasn’t graduated from college?” might be a good one. But according to a survey from RAND Corporation, there is one that’s even better: Do you feel voiceless?

(. . . )

The best predictor of Trump support isn't income, education, or age, he says. In South Carolina, it was “authoritarianism … [and] a personal fear of terrorism” that best predicted Trump’s support across the state.

(. . .)

They Live in Parts of the Country With Racial Resentment . . . According to the New York Times’ Nate Cohn, who used data from Civis Analytics, Trump’s support is strongest from the Gulf Coast, through the Appalachian Mountains, to New York, among marginally attached Republicans (possibly former Democrats). It is a familiar map for some demographers, since it’s similar to a heat map of Google searches for racial slurs and jokes.

Hmmm, paranoid, uneducated old white guys - Yep, sounds like a winning strategy :roll:
 

Chomsky

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June 8th - Having edged Hillary by 7% in California, Bernie Sanders finds that he only picks up 95 of the 548 available delegates and launches into a tirade wherein he refers to Hillary as "unpleasant" and "a fine woman but with questionable political connections". Clinton has him executed.

June 9th - Donald Trump appears on CNN. He is asked about the Sanders assassination and blames it on Cruz.

July 4th - Clinton and Trump both appear at Battery Park in Manhattan for the fireworks. Halfway through the show Trump, Clinton and Christie are discovered to be engaging in a threesome while Bill is drilling Melania in the limo. MSNBC reports on this and Chris Matthews gushes over how it really shows the future of bi-partisan politics. Rachel Maddow sulks away and crosses Hillary off her wish list.

August 16th - Trump announces a new deal with Enrique Nieto in which Mexico will build a gigantic wall from San Diego to Brownsville, TX. Along the wall there will be casinos every 150 miles and Mexico will receive 60% of the gaming revenue while the US will get 60% of F&B plus 80% of entertainment. The Rio Grande will now be available for cocktail cruises.

September 6th - Hillary is formally indicted for espionage after it is disclosed that her speeches Goldman Sachs all included coded production predictions from Rosneft and Gazprom. A Quinnipiac poll shows that after the indictment her polling numbers increased 8%.

October 3rd - National Enquirer reports that Trump's small hands are due to Body Dysmorphia and that his real name is Donna. They further reveal that he is the son/daughter of Canadian immigrants who were never nationalized. Matt Drudge buries the story and Breitbart organizes a tractor pull in the Enquirer parking lot.

November 8th - 485,000,000 Americans show up at the polls to cast their vote. The line at Precinct #8 in Dekalb County stretches down I20 and gets mixed up with the line from Birmingham. General chaos ensues when voters in Guam flock to the one polling place and the island topples into the ocean. Hank Johnson, speaking about the catastrophe, says "See! Y'all thought I was crazy."

November 9th - With 4% of the vote counted the election is called for Hugh Romney. Romney, who was totally unaware that he was even under consideration, noted that it had been 40 years since he handed out those flyers in KC and figured it was groovy that they finally worked.

Greetimgs. Lutherf.

Excellent! :thumbs: Funniest thing I have read in a loooong time!

Since you have an imagination, I'm not embarrassed to share this - today when I was sitting on the deck while the little dogs were busy running at top speed in the back yard, thoroughly enjoying themselves, I marveled at how blue the sky was, with the biggest puffiest white clouds I have seen in a long time. While I was watching the clouds, one decided to show off a little, and it turned itself into a huge white dragon with a long neck, wings and all! I clapped, since I couldn't think to do anything else, and just admired the show. Too soon it changed back into a cloud, but that was sure fun while it lasted. Mother Nature is sometimes full of surprises, isn't she, but that trick made my day! :happy:
Alright, this is some seriously good stuff here Luther! :thumbs:

Email it to the admins and have 'em put it on the front page! ;)
 

polgara

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I agree with all of your predictions! I was thinking that Trump would try to get Nikki Hailey....mainly because he can't afford to lose North Carolina and North Carolina is looking like a strong swing state this time around.

Greetings, didneydude. :2wave:

I was thinking more along the lines of Susana Martinez, Governor of New Mexico - the first Hispanic female Governor ever elected in the United States.

Nikki Haley would also be an excellent choice, but she is Governor of South Carolina, and she has already said she's not interested in becoming Vice President.
 
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