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Predict Senate Results

TypicalRussian said:
Lose for repubs:Colorado

complete tossup:arizona

very close but leaning red:north carolina,georgia

red flip:Alabama
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Yep, and I think this describes what is happening politically in those states.

Colorado has turned blue, Arizona is a swing state, and the others are still predominantly red except North Carolina which could go either way in the presidential election.
 
Indie guy said:
Yep, and I think this describes what is happening politically in those states.

Colorado has turned blue, Arizona is a swing state, and the others are still predominantly red except North Carolina which could go either way in the presidential election.
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yes

if biden wins, he does well in the southeast

if trump wins, he does well in the rust belt
 
Who would have thought four years ago North Caroline and Arizona could turn blue?
 
jpn said:
Put up or shut up: get on record now. What's your fearless prognostication for the Senate races?

I'm guessing that the Democrats pick up four seats, and lose one.

Lose: Alabama

Win: Arizona, Colorado, Maine, North Carolina. (Iowa, Montana and Georgia also in play).

Net gain of three, leaving the Senate in Democratic hands with Vice President Kamala Harris breaking any ties.
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Dems 51-49.

Dems losing Alabama and picking up AZ, ME, NC, CO, IA and possibly go 53-47 with Kansas and Montana.

2020 Senate Election Interactive Map
Do it yerself interactive map.
 
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TypicalRussian said:
Lose for repubs:Colorado

complete tossup:arizona

very close but leaning red:north carolina,georgia

red flip:Alabama
Click to expand...

Colorado is looking like a definite loss for repubs and AZ has repubs losing really badly. Hardly a tossup. North Carolina, is not leaning red it is leaning blue with Cunningham regularly polling ahead of Tillis. Alabama will go repub. Maine is leaning hard towards a blue flip.

Your post isn't a prediction, it is merely wishful thinking based on no facts at this point.
 
upsideguy said:
I agree with this, though I would move the "maybe" on North Carolina to a likely. The maybe list would include Iowa, Montana, Georgia and.... to a lesser extent, South Carolina. I think Graham has lashed his fortunes to Trump and his chances diminish with each CoVid death. Harrison is running strong.



.... like a pandemic that kills 200,000 Americans because of the inept response of one of the parties and inadequate economic relief to those that suffer. That kind of "drastic event"..... I don't think it gets more drastic than that.


That all said, even with "something drastic" a 60 seat majority for the Dems is very unlikely.... but 55 seats is doable.

Confidence Interval: Democrats Could Win 60 Seats In The Senate | FiveThirtyEight
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Kansas is polling at a dead heat as well.
 
Perotista said:
If the election were held today, yes, Arizona, Colorado, Maine and North Carolina would go Democratic, Alabama returns to its GOP roots. I'd add Iowa as a Democratic gain, with the 2 Georgia seats as pure toss up's. I do think Montana stays Republican which would be a change to my 1 Aug forecast.

Over the last month, Georgia 2, the special election I seen the two Republicans going after each other, Loefler and Collins with a ton of negative TV advertisements giving the Democrats a pass. It wouldn't surprise me if the Dems add this seat making it a net gain of 5. I'll go with 52-48 Democratic as of today. One has to remember the special Georgia 2 seat is a jungle primary on election day with a runoff schedule for 5 Jan 2021. So we won't know who wins this seats until after the runoff. Perdue in the regular senate race, Georgia 1 is a pure toss up between him and Ossoff. In these cases, I always go with the incumbent.
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Georgia has only one senate race that is in play with Ossoff v Perdue. The other with Loeffler is hard lean republican.
 
upsideguy said:
Why don't you have Colorado on that list? That one is generally considered the easiest for the Dems to flip. I assume its an oversight?
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Not too solid. Hickenlooper is still favored but there is a scandal there with him involved right now that is making him more vulnerable. But he was really liked as governor there.
 
Blue Donkey said:
Does anyone seriously think Lindsey Graham's challenger has a good chance of pulling off an upset?
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Yes. Depends on the success rate of the typical Southern voter suppression tactics on the black population because I think they will be very motivated to turn out if allowed. Especially for Harrison and Kamala.
 
poweRob said:
Not too solid. Hickenlooper is still favored but there is a scandal there with him involved right now that is making him more vulnerable. But he was really liked as governor there.
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I am "here", not there. There is no legitimate scandal. Its made up like Biden's shake-down of Ukraine. We are not going to elect Gardner from a blue state, which we are now. No one is going to send Gardner, who never once spoke up against Trump's corruption, back to the Senate because Hick took a free plane ride. The story has no real legs.

Hick is still up by 6.

Poll shows Gardner gaining on Hickenlooper, Biden beating Trump in Colorado – The Denver Post
 
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upsideguy said:
I am "here", not there. There is no legitimate scandal. Its made up like Biden's shake-down of Ukraine. We are not going to elect Gardner from a blue state, which we are now. No one is going to send Gardner, who never once spoke up against Trump's corruption, back to the Senate because Hick took a free plane ride. The story has no real legs.

Hick is still up by 6.

Poll shows Gardner gaining on Hickenlooper, Biden beating Trump in Colorado – The Denver Post
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I'm glad to hear that. Aside from AZ, CO is looking like the next most solidly reliable flip for Dems.
 
upsideguy said:
I am "here", not there. There is no legitimate scandal. Its made up like Biden's shake-down of Ukraine. We are not going to elect Gardner from a blue state, which we are now. No one is going to send Gardner, who never once spoke up against Trump's corruption, back to the Senate because Hick took a free plane ride. The story has no real legs.

Hick is still up by 6.

Poll shows Gardner gaining on Hickenlooper, Biden beating Trump in Colorado – The Denver Post
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I agree. Made up scandal. I do wish there would be some polling though. Last I saw, Hick was up by 6, but I would bet its more than that.

And I'm expecting AZ, CO, ME, and hoping for NC & MT (more would be nice.)
 
poweRob said:
I'm glad to hear that. Aside from AZ, CO is looking like the next most solidly reliable flip for Dems.
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Not at all..... The Dems should win Maine and North Carolina.... with Iowa, Georgia and Montana very much in play. South Carolina and the 2nd Georgia seat are also doable.

The Pandemic, the economy and Trump's erratic behavior are continue to pose even greater obstacles for the Republicans than they are today (they are each going to get worse).

Demon said:
I agree. Made up scandal. I do wish there would be some polling though. Last I saw, Hick was up by 6, but I would bet its more than that.

And I'm expecting AZ, CO, ME, and hoping for NC & MT (more would be nice.)
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Democrats Lead Senate Races in Arizona, Colorado, Michigan and North Carolina - Morning Consult
 
upsideguy said:
Not at all..... The Dems should win Maine and North Carolina.... with Iowa, Georgia and Montana very much in play. South Carolina and the 2nd Georgia seat are also doable.

The Pandemic, the economy and Trump's erratic behavior are continue to pose even greater obstacles for the Republicans than they are today (they are each going to get worse).
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The two states with the largest polling margins for dems picking up are indeed AZ and CO. I never said there weren't others in play.
 
Demon said:
I agree. Made up scandal. I do wish there would be some polling though. Last I saw, Hick was up by 6, but I would bet its more than that.

And I'm expecting AZ, CO, ME, and hoping for NC & MT (more would be nice.)
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NC looking very promising these days. Susan Collins getting thrown out looks promising as well.

I'm keeping an eye on the closer races in Iowa and Kansas. Ernst keep dropping and the dem keeps gaining there and I don't know what the hell is happening to the GOP in Kansas but that race is for real now.
 
poweRob said:
Kansas is polling at a dead heat as well.
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it was until the primary, based upon Kansas Republicans possibly nominating a wack-a-doo, Kris Kobach. He lost, so RCP has moved it from toss up to leans GOP to now Likely GOP.

The same aggregation of polls has branded both Colorado and South Carolina as toss-ups. I don't see Gardner prevailing in Colorado nor do I really believe that Harrison will actually beat Graham in SC.

They also rate Arizona as a toss, but Kelly has never had less than a 7 point lead. It also has Michigan a toss up, but Peters' lead has generally been 10-12 points. I guess the problem is that state polling just isn't all that good.

RealClearPolitics - 2020 Election Maps - Battle for the Senate 2020
 
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poweRob said:
NC looking very promising these days. Susan Collins getting thrown out looks promising as well.

I'm keeping an eye on the closer races in Iowa and Kansas. Ernst keep dropping and the dem keeps gaining there and I don't know what the hell is happening to the GOP in Kansas but that race is for real now.
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NC & ME, along with CO are the ones I'm hoping for most. I would so love to see them gone. I had kind of forgotten about Ernst, & kept wondering why everyone was saying IA! I haven't looked at the polls for KS lately, but will do so.
 
poweRob said:
Colorado is looking like a definite loss for repubs and AZ has repubs losing really badly. Hardly a tossup. North Carolina, is not leaning red it is leaning blue with Cunningham regularly polling ahead of Tillis. Alabama will go repub. Maine is leaning hard towards a blue flip.

Your post isn't a prediction, it is merely wishful thinking based on no facts at this point.
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how does arizona look really bad?

and no NC is not leading blue
 
jpn said:
Put up or shut up: get on record now. What's your fearless prognostication for the Senate races?

I'm guessing that the Democrats pick up four seats, and lose one.

Lose: Alabama

Win: Arizona, Colorado, Maine, North Carolina. (Iowa, Montana and Georgia also in play).

Net gain of three, leaving the Senate in Democratic hands with Vice President Kamala Harris breaking any ties.
Click to expand...

So with current senate rules nothing gets passed except federal appointments. How long will it take democrats to do away with the 60 votes needed to pass legislation? Oh, I'm not conceding a Harris VP I just don't feel the need to argue it.
 
Integrityrespec said:
So with current senate rules nothing gets passed except federal appointments. How long will it take democrats to do away with the 60 votes needed to pass legislation?
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Not long, I hope. The filibuster is undemocratic. Used irresponsibly, as the GOP did during the entire Obama administration, it merely jams the other side without forcing negotiation and compromise.

Since the GOP has proved it can't be trusted to use the filibuster responsibly, let's just abolish it altogether. That way the Democrats can pass their agenda and let America judge it one way or the other. That's how most Parliamentarian governments work and they work just fine.
 
TypicalRussian said:
how does arizona look really bad?

and no NC is not leading blue
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In North Carolina Tillis is getting his ass handed to him poll after poll. Averaged out to Cunningham ahead 4.6%. Sorry, not sorry.


AZ is worse for the GOP. Kelly is up as a polling average of 7.4%.


Time to slink away yapping about how polls don't matter. :lol:
 
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