Predict Senate Results

[bongsaway]

I actually think the dems have a real good chance to take the senate. Trump is doing the gop no good whatsoever and it's only going to get crazier.

 

[bearpoker]

Goodbye Mitch McConnell. I will not miss you.

In late 2019, McConnell was ranked the worst U.S. Senator on a top 10/bottom 10 list. As if that is not bad enough, Kentucky's Republican governor was immediately replaced with a Democrat in November. I have been expecting him to lose ever since.

BTW you know she is vacating her seat. Someone needs to run for it now.

I've been hoping Moscow would loose, but he's about 5 points ahead in the polls right now.
Latest 2020 Senate Election Polls

 

[bearpoker]

Where did you get the number 35 from? We are five seats short of a Democratic majority, so there have to be 45 donkeys.

For a veto proof majority, Democrats need 66 seats. Or 67 depending on whether they round up or down for 2/3rds.

 

[bearpoker]

i dont think collins will lose, its seems tht both sides like her

You're living in the past. Collins hand wringing over Trump while she voted with him has pissed off a lot of people.

 

[TypicalRussian]

You're living in the past. Collins hand wringing over Trump while she voted with him has pissed off a lot of people.

yeah but she has always been doing that

 

[bearpoker]

yeah but she has always been doing that

Only since Trump's been president. People thought she was independent. Now they don't. She whines about how "troubled" she is and then does what she's told. That's not what Mainers want.

 

[TypicalRussian]

Only since Trump's been president. People thought she was independent. Now they don't. She whines about how "troubled" she is and then does what she's told. That's not what Mainers want.

true true

we shall see

 

[upsideguy]

Dems flip Arizona, Colorado, Maine, and maybe North Carolina and/or Iowa.

Reds flip Alabama.

I agree with this, though I would move the "maybe" on North Carolina to a likely. The maybe list would include Iowa, Montana, Georgia and.... to a lesser extent, South Carolina. I think Graham has lashed his fortunes to Trump and his chances diminish with each CoVid death. Harrison is running strong.

no side will ever get 60 senate seats in the forseaable future unless something very drastic happens

.... like a pandemic that kills 200,000 Americans because of the inept response of one of the parties and inadequate economic relief to those that suffer. That kind of "drastic event"..... I don't think it gets more drastic than that.


That all said, even with "something drastic" a 60 seat majority for the Dems is very unlikely.... but 55 seats is doable.

Confidence Interval: Democrats Could Win 60 Seats In The Senate | FiveThirtyEight

 

[Perotista]

Put up or shut up: get on record now. What's your fearless prognostication for the Senate races?

I'm guessing that the Democrats pick up four seats, and lose one.

Lose: Alabama

Win: Arizona, Colorado, Maine, North Carolina. (Iowa, Montana and Georgia also in play).

Net gain of three, leaving the Senate in Democratic hands with Vice President Kamala Harris breaking any ties.

If the election were held today, yes, Arizona, Colorado, Maine and North Carolina would go Democratic, Alabama returns to its GOP roots. I'd add Iowa as a Democratic gain, with the 2 Georgia seats as pure toss up's. I do think Montana stays Republican which would be a change to my 1 Aug forecast.

Over the last month, Georgia 2, the special election I seen the two Republicans going after each other, Loefler and Collins with a ton of negative TV advertisements giving the Democrats a pass. It wouldn't surprise me if the Dems add this seat making it a net gain of 5. I'll go with 52-48 Democratic as of today. One has to remember the special Georgia 2 seat is a jungle primary on election day with a runoff schedule for 5 Jan 2021. So we won't know who wins this seats until after the runoff. Perdue in the regular senate race, Georgia 1 is a pure toss up between him and Ossoff. In these cases, I always go with the incumbent.

 

[Patriotic Voter]

If the election were today I think Democrats would flip Arizona, Colorado, Maine, and North Carolina while Republicans would flip Alabama. It would not surprise me at all to see Iowa, Montana, or Georgia's non-special flip. Alaska, Kansas, Michigan, South Carolina, Texas, and Georgia's special are flips that I think would be highly unlikely, but theoretically possible. I don't think there is a reasonable chance for any other state.

What is a special flip?

Lindsey Graham needs to lose, but I don't see that happening. As for Alabama, our only hope the Democrat's seat will not flip is the Republican's identity. Smart people cannot support a guy with no legal or political experience for one of the country's top ranked jobs.

 

[Patriotic Voter]

3 1/2 years ago i would have never guessed that we'd be talking about Dems possibly winning in some of those races.

Which races?

 

[Patriotic Voter]

For a veto proof majority, Democrats need 66 seats. Or 67 depending on whether they round up or down for 2/3rds.

I asked how someone came up with 35 Democrats in the Senate when there are only five less of them than Republicans.

 

[bearpoker]

I asked how someone came up with 35 Democrats in the Senate when the number of Republicans is at least 50.

They want a super majority to overcome the filibusters. That's how Moscow paralyzed the Senate in the Obama years. If the Democrats take the Senate, and he's minority leader, he'll do it again. Especially if Biden is president. That's why, if the Democrats take the Senate, they may do away with the filibuster altogether. If they do that and loose the Senate in two years, I want them to follow McConnells example and restore the filibuster in a lame duck session.

 

[Patriotic Voter]

They want a super majority to overcome the filibusters. That's how Moscow paralyzed the Senate in the Obama years. If the Democrats take the Senate, and he's minority leader, he'll do it again. Especially if Biden is president. That's why, if the Democrats take the Senate, they may do away with the filibuster altogether. If they do that and lose the Senate in two years, I want them to follow McConnell's example and restore the filibuster in a lame duck session.

My question could not be more clear. I said NOTHING about filibusters. Again, how do you come up with 35 Senators being Democrats when there are only five less of them than Republicans?

 

[Anagram]

What is a special flip?

Lindsey Graham needs to lose, but I don't see that happening. As for Alabama, our only hope the Democrat's seat will not flip is the Republican's identity. Smart people cannot support a guy with no legal or political experience for one of the country's top ranked jobs.

The special election in Georgia for Isakson's seat (now Loeffler's) after he retired early.

 

[Patriotic Voter]

The special election in Georgia for Isakson's seat (now Loeffler's) after he retired early.

Isakson could not finish the rest of his term?

 

[Rogue Valley]

Doug Jones in Talabama probably loses.

Arizona flips. GOP-held seats in Colorado, Georgia, Iowa, Maine, Montana and North Carolina I see as toss-ups.

A net gain of five to seven seats for Democrats is not impossible.

I say the Dems pick up 4 seats. I don't think McConnell will lose. Kentuckians are sadists it seems.

 

[Anagram]

Isakson could not finish the rest of his term?

He had some sort of health concerns.

 

[Patriotic Voter]

If Kentucky is really that bad, why has Mitch McConnell popular in the state my entire life?

 

[mrjurrs]

Which races?

S. Carolina, Kentucky, Arizona, Georgia (at least one of them), N. Carolina, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, and Montana

 

[TypicalRussian]

Doug Jones in Talabama probably loses.

Arizona flips. GOP-held seats in Colorado, Georgia, Iowa, Maine, Montana and North Carolina I see as toss-ups.

A net gain of five to seven seats for Democrats is not impossible.

I say the Dems pick up 4 seats. I don't think McConnell will lose. Kentuckians are sadists it seems.

how would that be the senators fault and not the two democratic governors?

 

[Patriotic Voter]

S. Carolina, Kentucky, Arizona, Georgia (at least one of them), N. Carolina, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, and Montana

Definitely not South Carolina or Kentucky. No matter how bad they are. Lindsey Graham and Mitch McConnell always find a way to win. This is the best time to finally get our hopes up about them getting kicked out.

I don't know about Arizona. Donald Trump held a rally in Phoenix, the same city a Democratic debate was moved out of for safety reasons. COVID-19 spread all over the state. "The world's toughest sheriff" was pardoned of all federal crimes he committed, which certainly can't make any good people happy. .During the primary/caucus season, Latinos were more likely to support Bernie Sanders than Joe Biden. How will it translate to a Senate race?

 

[upsideguy]

S. Carolina, Kentucky, Arizona, Georgia (at least one of them), N. Carolina, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, and Montana

Why don't you have Colorado on that list? That one is generally considered the easiest for the Dems to flip. I assume its an oversight?

 

[haymarket]

Dems 51 - Moscow Mitch Mafia - 49.

 

[Patriotic Voter]

Does anyone seriously think Lindsey Graham's challenger has a good chance of pulling off an upset?