Post-shutdown negotiations look brutal for Trump

[jnug]

So how much does he want for the 230 miles? $5.7B? That's almost $25M/mile. Too costly.

Those are the numbers that have been tossed about from the very start. Why do you think 1,000 miles tallied out in estimates to $25B? In fact, I think $25B is light. If I had to put a number to it....I would guess all said and done, more like $35B+.

 

[Acadia]

230 miles?

Yup.

 

[jnug]

I don't think Trump is afraid to test the courts.

I don't think Trump is "afraid" of it either. If he shifts the Fight to the courts, in Trumps view, the Fight goes on away from a venue where it is already proven he can't win. The Fight itself is all Trump has been about anyway.

If Trump even on very narrow chances gets his Wall going the court route, he will take it. Given that the Wall Fight is all he was ever after, he would consider either outcome a win. I think he is crazy as a loon myself and is as wrong in this instance as he was in judging that Pelosi would cave confronted with the Shutdown.

 

[Airyaman]

Certainly Obama had a plan when Dems in the Senate all voted for 700 miles of wall in 2013, no? There must have been a plan, right? If Trump needs a plan for 230 miles of wall, surely the Dems had one for 700 miles.

So, where's the plan?

How much money did they allot for this 700 miles?

 

[molten_dragon]

Post-shutdown negotiations look brutal for Trump

It seems that under no circumstances will Democrats agree to fund a physical wall unless the DACA/Dreamer issue is settled permanently, not a temporary reprieve such as the GOP tried to pass last week. No one in Congress has the wherewithal to support another government shutdown. There is a good chance that any new bill may hinge on semantics … where any reference to a "border wall" is nonexistent and instead "border fence" is the accepted terminology. I would imagine such border fencing (of the style already in use) would be okayed for repair patches and in select places where the CBP says it is critical. I do not foresee any additional hundreds of miles of new border fencing being erected. I believe Trumps White House advisors and lawyers have already explained to Trump that court challenges to any declared "national emergency" would be a certainty and any final disposition remains an uncertain ruling. I have no doubts that Trumps anti-immigration handlers such as Miller, Bannon, Coulter, Limbaugh, etc. will prod Trump to go ahead with a "national emergency" declaration anyway. They desperately need a border win before 2020.

Related: Shutdown debacle leaves Trump with stark choices

Screw that. I don't want DACA enough to fund Trump's worthless wall. Trump has shown once that when push comes to shove he'll cave. There's no reason whatsoever for Democrats to give him anything at this point.

 

[WillyPete]

I've seen nothing that makes me think Trump can thread the needle here, so it boils down to a few bad options. I wonder which one he'll pick!?

A. Shutdown 2: Electric Boogaloo, wherein Trump goes where he's already failed before, and almost certainly fails again.

B. National Emergency Gambit: Where he exerts his very real powers as President to get tangled up in court. Very unlikely to bear fruit while Trump's still in office, with legal challenges on every inch of property he wants to seize.

C. Trump gives up, says "Aw shucks, we tried", and goes back to sucking on a different topic.

It's not likely Trump can give Democrats anything that will change their position. Democrats are in a pretty safe place right now. They'd have to say/do some really stupid things to get splattered on this topic, so why trouble themselves for anything less than exactly what they want?

And of course that is completely unacceptable to Team MAGA, so unless I missed an option Trump selects from above.

 

[Rich2018]

I don't think Trump is "afraid" of it either. If he shifts the Fight to the courts, in Trumps view, the Fight goes on away from a venue where it is already proven he can't win. The Fight itself is all Trump has been about anyway.

If Trump even on very narrow chances gets his Wall going the court route, he will take it. Given that the Wall Fight is all he was ever after, he would consider either outcome a win. I think he is crazy as a loon myself and is as wrong in this instance as he was in judging that Pelosi would cave confronted with the Shutdown.

The court route is a tar pit.

Trump will get bogged down in the courts for years...

 

[jnug]

The court route is a tar pit.

Trump will get bogged down in the courts for years...

No argument from me!

 

[Rich2018]

I've seen nothing that makes me think Trump can thread the needle here, so it boils down to a few bad options. I wonder which one he'll pick!?

A. Shutdown 2: Electric Boogaloo, wherein Trump goes where he's already failed before, and almost certainly fails again.

B. National Emergency Gambit: Where he exerts his very real powers as President to get tangled up in court. Very unlikely to bear fruit while Trump's still in office, with legal challenges on every inch of property he wants to seize.

C. Trump gives up, says "Aw shucks, we tried", and goes back to sucking on a different topic.

It's not likely Trump can give Democrats anything that will change their position. Democrats are in a pretty safe place right now. They'd have to say/do some really stupid things to get splattered on this topic, so why trouble themselves for anything less than exactly what they want?

And of course that is completely unacceptable to Team MAGA, so unless I missed an option Trump selects from above.

A & C are unacceptable.

It's looking like he will go B...and hope to galvanize his core support with the promise that the wall will come once the treasonous Dems and lawyers are shoved out of his way.
Will the MAGA mob buy that ?


There is D - the Lyndon B Johnson option. Walk away from politics.
F**k you all, you don't deserve me anyway.

 

[jnug]

How much money did they allot for this 700 miles?

The initial estimates going into the 2006 Border Fence Act were $4.1B in 2006 $'s for 630 miles of that sheet metal thing plus some Bollard that we have. That into an environment were the entire CBP annual budget was $3.5B per in that year. $1.4B was actually Appropriated with CR's accounting for more funding along the way. The estimates for maintenance of the 630 miles over 25 years was $50B. I actually do not know how much has been spent on what we have to this point.

 

[armycowboy]

I've seen nothing that makes me think Trump can thread the needle here, so it boils down to a few bad options. I wonder which one he'll pick!?

A. Shutdown 2: Electric Boogaloo, wherein Trump goes where he's already failed before, and almost certainly fails again.

B. National Emergency Gambit: Where he exerts his very real powers as President to get tangled up in court. Very unlikely to bear fruit while Trump's still in office, with legal challenges on every inch of property he wants to seize.

C. Trump gives up, says "Aw shucks, we tried", and goes back to sucking on a different topic.

It's not likely Trump can give Democrats anything that will change their position. Democrats are in a pretty safe place right now. They'd have to say/do some really stupid things to get splattered on this topic, so why trouble themselves for anything less than exactly what they want?

And of course that is completely unacceptable to Team MAGA, so unless I missed an option Trump selects from above.

B is the only way Trump saves face. Even though, as others have said, it will get bogged down in courts for years, at least he can say "I tried" and continue to demonize democrats.

Senate republicans won't let him shut the gov't down again, so A is a non-starter. If he gets "something" of of a compromise (doubtful) he can try to spin that as a victory, so C is a very remote possibility.

Anyway you look at it, Trump is negotiating from a point of weakness, so victory here is very relative.

 

[Mycroft]

I don't think Trump is "afraid" of it either. If he shifts the Fight to the courts, in Trumps view, the Fight goes on away from a venue where it is already proven he can't win. The Fight itself is all Trump has been about anyway.

If Trump even on very narrow chances gets his Wall going the court route, he will take it. Given that the Wall Fight is all he was ever after, he would consider either outcome a win. I think he is crazy as a loon myself and is as wrong in this instance as he was in judging that Pelosi would cave confronted with the Shutdown.

A lot of people seem to think there will be a problem with the courts. I don't see it. Trump is on solid legal and constitutional grounds for being able to declare a national emergency. Congress has a procedure, according to the law, to try to stop the declaration.

I really don't see any serious objection that a court would even consider.

 

[jnug]

A lot of people seem to think there will be a problem with the courts. I don't see it. Trump is on solid legal and constitutional grounds for being able to declare a national emergency. Congress has a procedure, according to the law, to try to stop the declaration.

I really don't see any serious objection that a court would even consider.

No he's not...not even close!

In part, precedent is against him and in part he has dug his own grave. Law lives on Language and you cannot call something an Emergency when in fact you have been trying to gain funding through a half baked Legislative maneuver. Either the situation of ex-border unauthorized immigrant traffic is or is not a National Emergency and going through two years of virtually NOTHING and 5 weeks of shutdown while not calling a National Emergency is absurd and Trump won't convince Judges that his actions meet his language.

Trump's inability to get it done with or without Senate and House Majorities is NOT a National Emergency. He can try to frame the situation on the border any way he wants to. The case against him will be that his inability to gain funding is not a National Emergency. Heck if the GOP really wanted this thing they could have used their 2018 Reconciliation shot for it just as they used their 2017 Reconciliation shot for the tax legislation. Had they done that, Trump could have had his Wall with simple majorities votes in both Houses of Congress. Bing, Bang, Bong....WALL.

SCJ's are not stupid and Trump will have to fight his way through the District and Appeals court before he even gets to them.

 

[tres borrachos]

No he's not...not even close!

In part, precedent is against him and in part he has dug his own grave. Law lives on Language and you cannot call something an Emergency when in fact you have been trying to gain funding through a half baked Legislative maneuver. Either the situation of ex-border unauthorized immigrant traffic is or is not a National Emergency and going through two years of virtually NOTHING and 5 weeks of shutdown while not calling a National Emergency is absurd and Trump won't convince Judges that his actions meet his language.

Trump's inability to get it done with or without Senate and House Majorities is NOT a National Emergency. He can try to frame the situation on the border any way he wants to. The case against him will be that his inability to gain funding is not a National Emergency. Heck if the GOP really wanted this thing they could have used their 2018 Reconciliation shot for it just as they used their 2017 Reconciliation shot for the tax legislation. Had they done that, Trump could have had his Wall with simple majorities votes in both Houses of Congress. Bing, Bang, Bong....WALL.

SCJ's are not stupid.

Trump won't declare a national emergency because even he isn't that stupid. Or I should say, not all of his handlers are that stupid.

He didn't do it for the first 2 years of his Presidency, and he didn't do it the last 3 weeks. Doing it now would be political suicide. Only a moron wouldn't see through it.

 

[jnug]

Trump won't declare a national emergency because even he isn't that stupid. Or I should say, not all of his handlers are that stupid.

He didn't do it for the first 2 years of his Presidency, and he didn't do it the last 3 weeks. Doing it now would be political suicide. Only a moron wouldn't see through it.

If Trump does go National Emergency, it will be the surest sign we could have that Trump values the Wall Fight more than he values the Wall itself. That said I don't expect his supporters to figure that out.

 

[armycowboy]

Trump won't declare a national emergency because even he isn't that stupid. Or I should say, not all of his handlers are that stupid.

He didn't do it for the first 2 years of his Presidency, and he didn't do it the last 3 weeks. Doing it now would be political suicide. Only a moron wouldn't see through it.

If that's the case (and I don't underestimate Trump's stupidity) then the only thing left is for Trump to take whatever bill is put in front of him and try to spin it as a victory.

 

[jnug]

If that's the case (and I don't underestimate Trump's stupidity) then the only thing left is for Trump to take whatever bill is put in front of him and try to spin it as a victory.

Staggering that nobody seems to have talked Trump out of this idea that the final decision maker from the Executive Branch (Trump himself), goes out in public and flaps his gums about terms or what he will or won't accept or about what he thinks his chance of signing something! WHAT IS WRONG WITH HIM.

His public facing statements right now are just about the equivalent of sitting in the Oval Office with Pelosi and Schumer and telling the world he would take the blame for a Shutdown. Can he never resist the temptation to box himself in every single time? Has he learned NOTHING from an experience no less fresh in our memories than the Shutdown? Who in God's name would as the Executive, THE DECISION MAKER in any environment, business or government walk around with his pants around his ankles all day long? Answer: Donald Trump.

 

[WillyPete]

A lot of people seem to think there will be a problem with the courts. I don't see it. Trump is on solid legal and constitutional grounds for being able to declare a national emergency. Congress has a procedure, according to the law, to try to stop the declaration.

I really don't see any serious objection that a court would even consider.

I'm no lawyer, but from what I've read the issue isn't his emergency powers, or even his rationale for declaring them, but that he doesn't have a good set of tools to seize property without congressional help, even if the property owners were 100% on board with his plan.

In actual fact, many of those landholders will fight this tooth and nail in the courts, and even if somehow Trump is permitted to do it, it will take longer to get the needed decisions than Trump has to live, never mind be President.

I heard somewhere that there are still active court cases today from the last time we tried adding fencing (I believe back in W's day,) and that was with congressional support, a less grandiose scheme, and much broader public support.

 

[bullseyelqcs]

He's rippppppppppppppping them from their mother's arms.

Nope. They are not going to give him a nickel... this will never be fixed.
We have a lousy government and lousy it will remain until every one of these career lockstep obstructionist America haters are voted out of office.

Here here....lets get the Republicans who allowed themselves to be silenced by two men out of office and see if we can't get some with actual spines in to fix that problem.

Republicans had a chance to actually pull some semblance of victory from the jaw of defeat weeks ago by simply coming out and publicly telling McConnell and Trump to let them vote to open the government and deal with the rest later. They didn't, even though the overwhelming majority of people didn't support the shutdown and even less support the wall. That is going to come back and bite quite a few of them in the ass.....especially if Trump allows for another shutdown and Mitch decides to run cover for him yet again.

 

[Mycroft]

No he's not...not even close!

In part, precedent is against him and in part he has dug his own grave. Law lives on Language and you cannot call something an Emergency when in fact you have been trying to gain funding through a half baked Legislative maneuver. Either the situation of ex-border unauthorized immigrant traffic is or is not a National Emergency and going through two years of virtually NOTHING and 5 weeks of shutdown while not calling a National Emergency is absurd and Trump won't convince Judges that his actions meet his language.

Trump's inability to get it done with or without Senate and House Majorities is NOT a National Emergency. He can try to frame the situation on the border any way he wants to. The case against him will be that his inability to gain funding is not a National Emergency. Heck if the GOP really wanted this thing they could have used their 2018 Reconciliation shot for it just as they used their 2017 Reconciliation shot for the tax legislation. Had they done that, Trump could have had his Wall with simple majorities votes in both Houses of Congress. Bing, Bang, Bong....WALL.

SCJ's are not stupid and Trump will have to fight his way through the District and Appeals court before he even gets to them.

None of what you say is a valid response to any of the points I made in my post.

All of what you say is nothing more that YOUR objection, including irrelevant nonsense, to Trump using a lawful power to deal with a national emergency.

But tell me...who do you think might have standing to mount a suit against Trump, and what do you think the grounds of such a suit might be?

 

[bullseyelqcs]

A lot of people seem to think there will be a problem with the courts. I don't see it. Trump is on solid legal and constitutional grounds for being able to declare a national emergency. Congress has a procedure, according to the law, to try to stop the declaration.

I really don't see any serious objection that a court would even consider.

So wait.....you calling it a win if the courts don't throw it out on face value? You should probably see a chiropractor after that stretch.

Even if they didn't throw it out, then you have to deal with the million and one eminent domain lawsuits that are gonna happen when he tries to simply take the land from rightful owners in the name of a made up emergency.

And then, even if he managed to thread that needle, the cost of paying off all those lawsuits is gonna balloon the cost of his beloved wall well beyond the predicted 40 to 50 billion that was already tossed out there.

Hardly a win, but hey, get it how you live it I guess.

 

[Irwin Corey]

Post-shutdown negotiations look brutal for Trump

IF tRump and his followers want the wall he promised during his campaign then he needs to keep the whole promise and have Mexico pay for it. If he can't get Mexico to pay for it … is he off the hook ... or will Vice President Coulter still have a meltdown?

 

[Mycroft]

I'm no lawyer, but from what I've read the issue isn't his emergency powers, or even his rationale for declaring them, but that he doesn't have a good set of tools to seize property without congressional help, even if the property owners were 100% on board with his plan.

In actual fact, many of those landholders will fight this tooth and nail in the courts, and even if somehow Trump is permitted to do it, it will take longer to get the needed decisions than Trump has to live, never mind be President.

I heard somewhere that there are still active court cases today from the last time we tried adding fencing (I believe back in W's day,) and that was with congressional support, a less grandiose scheme, and much broader public support.

There are provisions in various laws that take effect in the case of a national emergency. Here is one that could affect these landowners you speak of.

7 U.S.C. § 4208

Legal provisions intended to protect farmland do not apply to the acquisition or use of farmland for national defense purposes (1990)

https://www.brennancenter.org/analysis/emergency-powers

That article lists many other laws that would be changed...that might affect Trump's ability to deal with the national emergency on our southern border. There might be others, as well.

 

[jnug]

None of what you say is a valid response to any of the points I made in my post.

All of what you say is nothing more that YOUR objection, including irrelevant nonsense, to Trump using a lawful power to deal with a national emergency.

But tell me...who do you think might have standing to mount a suit against Trump, and what do you think the grounds of such a suit might be?

Even the administration itself expects the Courts to intervene. We will have to see the EC itself to know who will have standing. I would expect Border Property Holders at least.

Plus it will be difficult for Trump to make the case that his National Emergency isn't simply another Trumpian effort to circumvent process and claiming the Congress can just use "process" to beat a bare faced effort to avoid process won't fly. Trump would be trying to convert the simple majority required in the House and the 3:5 vote required in the Senate FOR Appropriations to the 2:3 vote required to overturn an Executive claim of National Emergency. SC Justices are just not that stupid and Trump's effort is just too transparent. In this latter instance the Congress itself would have standing...any Congressman, any Senator.

Trump will end up caught on the horns of the same dilemma. His inability to gain funding via Legislative process is not a National Emergency. If he was going to go National Emergency, he should have done it immediately two years ago or he should have done it at least five weeks ago as opposed to telling the world he "could go National Emergency but PREFERRED a legislative process.

 

[armycowboy]

Staggering that nobody seems to have talked Trump out of this idea that the final decision maker from the Executive Branch (Trump himself), goes out in public and flaps his gums about terms or what he will or won't accept or about what he thinks his chance of signing something! WHAT IS WRONG WITH HIM.

His public facing statements right now are just about the equivalent of sitting in the Oval Office with Pelosi and Schumer and telling the world he would take the blame for a Shutdown. Can he never resist the temptation to box himself in every single time? Has he learned NOTHING from an experience no less fresh in our memories than the Shutdown? Who in God's name would as the Executive, THE DECISION MAKER in any environment, business or government walk around with his pants around his ankles all day long? Answer: Donald Trump.

In business Trump always negotiated from a position of strength, they needed him more than he needed them. He isn't used to negotiating on equal footing, or now, from a position of weakness. He doesn't know how to do it, and it shows.