Post-shutdown negotiations look brutal for Trump

[Rogue Valley]

Post-shutdown negotiations look brutal for Trump

1/28/19
Lawmakers in both parties are skeptical about President Trump’s chances of securing funding for his wall on the Mexican border after a 35-day partial government shutdown that bruised the White House’s political standing. The deal reached last week gives Trump and Congress until Feb. 15 to reach a new deal to prevent another partial shutdown, and the president is demanding new legislation again that would fund his signature campaign issue. Democrats seem unlikely to budget any money for a border wall, and even if they did, lawmakers say such a deal would likely require Trump to include significant immigration reforms, such as giving immigrants known as Dreamers a pathway to citizenship or permanent residency. That would be a tough nut to crack in only three weeks, and the concessions could also damage Trump with his base. Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) set the tone immediately after Trump agreed to reopen the government by declaring Friday that she will not change her stance on opposing money for a border wall, which she had previously called “immoral.” “Have I not been clear on a wall? I’ve been very clear on the wall,” she told reporters Friday when asked whether her position had changed at all because of the decision to reopen government agencies. Her staunch opposition to funding the wall leaves some lawmakers wondering whether the political dynamic has changed. “There’s a chance we’re in the same soup in three weeks,” Sen. Kevin Cramer (R-N.D.) acknowledged moments after Trump announced he would support funding the government for three weeks to give negotiators space to reach a deal.

Senate Democratic Whip Dick Durbin (Ill.), who was named Friday to the Senate-House conference committee that will attempt to find a compromise over the next three weeks, has previously said we would only entertain supporting increased funding for border barriers if Republicans agree to a permanent solution for Dreamers facing deportation. Under the agreement reached with Trump Friday, congressional leaders will set up a special Senate-House conference committee to negotiate a deal on border security they hope would pave the way for passage of all seven appropriations bills to fund about 25 percent of government. Under the agreement reached with Trump Friday, congressional leaders will set up a special Senate-House conference committee to negotiate a deal on border security they hope would pave the way for passage of all seven appropriations bills to fund about 25 percent of government. Trump warned in the Rose Garden Friday that he could declare a national emergency to build the wall and bypass Congress altogether if lawmakers fail to produce a result by Feb. 15. But Republican lawmakers say that would likely get blocked by the courts, limiting the effectiveness of Trump’s leverage. “You're at the mercy of a district court somewhere and ultimately an appellate court. So it really may not even withstand if you look at some of the other rulings we've seen,” Rubio said on “Meet the Press.” GOP lawmakers are also concerned about setting a new precedent that weakens Congress’s power of the purse.

It seems that under no circumstances will Democrats agree to fund a physical wall unless the DACA/Dreamer issue is settled permanently, not a temporary reprieve such as the GOP tried to pass last week. No one in Congress has the wherewithal to support another government shutdown. There is a good chance that any new bill may hinge on semantics … where any reference to a "border wall" is nonexistent and instead "border fence" is the accepted terminology. I would imagine such border fencing (of the style already in use) would be okayed for repair patches and in select places where the CBP says it is critical. I do not foresee any additional hundreds of miles of new border fencing being erected. I believe Trumps White House advisors and lawyers have already explained to Trump that court challenges to any declared "national emergency" would be a certainty and any final disposition remains an uncertain ruling. I have no doubts that Trumps anti-immigration handlers such as Miller, Bannon, Coulter, Limbaugh, etc. will prod Trump to go ahead with a "national emergency" declaration anyway. They desperately need a border win before 2020.

Related: Shutdown debacle leaves Trump with stark choices

 

[Cardinal]

I don't see DACA as an equal trade at this point. The only way I could feel okay about wall funding is by getting our top priority in return for their top priority, which is a comprehensive bill codifying voter rights, including:

• automatic registration
• banning registration purges
• an end to gerrymandering
• an end to voter id laws
• the right for college students to vote regardless of the state they're in
• returning voting rights to all ex-felons
• moving voting day to Saturday and Sunday
• extension of early voting time
• a mandated minimum number of voting stations based on population

And just for good measure, make that a Constitutional amendment so that future Congresses are less able to screw with it. If all of that happened, I could get on board with a wall.

 

[tres borrachos]

Post-shutdown negotiations look brutal for Trump

It seems that under no circumstances will Democrats agree to fund a physical wall unless the DACA/Dreamer issue is settled permanently, not a temporary reprieve such as the GOP tried to pass last week. No one in Congress has the wherewithal to support another government shutdown. There is a good chance that any new bill may hinge on semantics … where any reference to a "border wall" is nonexistent and instead "border fence" is the accepted terminology. I would imagine such border fencing (of the style already in use) would be okayed for repair patches and in select places where the CBP says it is critical. I do not foresee any additional hundreds of miles of new border fencing being erected. I believe Trumps White House advisors and lawyers have already explained to Trump that court challenges to any declared "national emergency" would be a certainty and any final disposition remains an uncertain ruling. I have no doubts that Trumps anti-immigration handlers such as Miller, Bannon, Coulter, Limbaugh, etc. will prod Trump to go ahead with a "national emergency" declaration anyway. They desperately need a border win before 2020.

Related: Shutdown debacle leaves Trump with stark choices

I think Trump should give citizenship to the DACA people in exchange for a few billion dollars for his wall/barrier/fence/whateveritisnow. Ann Coulter's head will explode.

 

[Cardinal]

I think Trump should give citizenship to the DACA people in exchange for a few billion dollars for his wall/barrier/fence/whateveritisnow. Ann Coulter's head will explode.

Not my first preference, but I'd certainly appreciate the lulz of it.

 

[Acadia]

Trump indeed is in a tough spot. How can you deal with people who are despicable liars and political hacks? You can't.
Unless the Democrats who actually still posses their souls stand up to Pelosi and Schumer, the Dems will allow any amount of suffering to the American people and will screw over the dreamers before they let Trump fulfill his campaign promises.
This is about 2020 and if America needs to be torn apart by the Dems in order to get Trump out of office, they will do it.

You can't think like a rational and fair-minded adult who accepts that negotiation means giving and getting in order to compromise.
Dems will not compromise on 2020, which is what this is all about.

And we have far too much TDS going on in the country for Democrat and independent voters to grow a spine and say, "Hey, Dems, we need protection and you were all for border fencing and a whole lot more of it, before Trump got elected. You're lying through your caps! Walls are not immoral and we know this.".

In fact, their base if lurching left along with their leaders.

 

[washunut]

I don't see DACA as an equal trade at this point. The only way I could feel okay about wall funding is by getting our top priority in return for their top priority, which is a comprehensive bill codifying voter rights, including:

• automatic registration
• banning registration purges
• an end to gerrymandering
• an end to voter id laws
• the right for college students to vote regardless of the state they're in
• returning voting rights to all ex-felons
• moving voting day to Saturday and Sunday
• extension of early voting time
• a mandated minimum number of voting stations based on population

And just for good measure, make that a Constitutional amendment so that future Congresses are less able to screw with it. If all of that happened, I could get on board with a wall.

In other words no negotiation. That is fine but be honest and say that. Immigration gas been a successful issue for Democrats for the last couple of decades. Do reason why it will not be now. Trump is a horrible communicator on this issue IMO.

That being said, not sure not fixing our immigration laws for the last few decades has been a benefit for the average American citizen. It has been beneficial to corporations. I look at allowing large numbers of unskilled workers who have the threat of deportation hanging over their head as modern day slave trading.

If people were truly in favor of a living wage they would want to shut down the illegal competition our own unskilled citizens face.

 

[Acadia]

Undoubtedly, we need to fix the immigration system, not just build fences. But this argument now, that fences are "medieval", is just mental gymnastics on the part of the Dems. Border structures are an elegant solution and they work. Why stop doing things that work?
You know what's really, really ancient? The wheel. Are Dems going to remove the tires from their cars because you know...technology?

 

[Cardinal]

In other words no negotiation. That is fine but be honest and say that. Immigration gas been a successful issue for Democrats for the last couple of decades. Do reason why it will not be now. Trump is a horrible communicator on this issue IMO.

That being said, not sure not fixing our immigration laws for the last few decades has been a benefit for the average American citizen. It has been beneficial to corporations. I look at allowing large numbers of unskilled workers who have the threat of deportation hanging over their head as modern day slave trading.

If people were truly in favor of a living wage they would want to shut down the illegal competition our own unskilled citizens face.

At least you know that there is actually something I could get in return for supporting a wall.

 

[trixare4kids]

Undoubtedly, we need to fix the immigration system, not just build fences. But this argument now, that fences are "medieval", is just mental gymnastics on the part of the Dems. Border structures are an elegant solution and they work. Why stop doing things that work?
You know what's really, really ancient? The wheel. Are Dems going to remove the tires from their cars because you know...technology?

:lol:
What it all says to me is that the resistance to the "immoral" wall, the "medieval" fence is about Trump not getting the win going toward the 2020 election.
Swamp politics as usual... SMH.

Meanwhile, another migrant caravan is heading toward the border.

 

[Acadia]

:lol:
What it all says to me is that the resistance to the "immoral" wall, the "medieval" fence is about Trump not getting the win going toward the 2020 election.
Swamp politics as usual... SMH.

Meanwhile, another migrant caravan is heading toward the border.

And the Left will say, "What caravan? Why is FOX always talking about the caravan?", until they pivot to, "Oh, the humanity at the border! Gassing women and children! Children are dyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyying!!!".

Uh, yeah. So, how about we fix this?

 

[trixare4kids]

Trump indeed is in a tough spot. How can you deal with people who are despicable liars and political hacks? You can't.
Unless the Democrats who actually still posses their souls stand up to Pelosi and Schumer, the Dems will allow any amount of suffering to the American people and will screw over the dreamers before they let Trump fulfill his campaign promises.
This is about 2020 and if America needs to be torn apart by the Dems in order to get Trump out of office, they will do it.

You can't think like a rational and fair-minded adult who accepts that negotiation means giving and getting in order to compromise.
Dems will not compromise on 2020, which is what this is all about.

And we have far too much TDS going on in the country for Democrat and independent voters to grow a spine and say, "Hey, Dems, we need protection and you were all for border fencing and a whole lot more of it, before Trump got elected. You're lying through your caps! Walls are not immoral and we know this.".

In fact, their base if lurching left along with their leaders.

100% on the money...

 

[jnug]

The more they turn this into another negotiation focused on what Trump will or won't sign based on Trump's public statements the more futile the effort becomes. Any real effort to deal with this border security issue will boil down to the semantics of making a smart wall plus more CBP officers plus more vehicles plus continuing the repairs and renovations to the human physical barriers that exist play enough for Trump to sell it.

I actually think at this point, I can't put the odds at Trump signing anything that emerges 21 days from now even at 50-50. Trump won't sign anything IMO. He will go the National Emergency route and throw it to the courts where his chances of winning are slim to none. But as I have said now for weeks, Trump does not want a Wall. Trump wants a Wall Fight and throwing this to the courts means nothing will actually happen on the border with regard to actual construction of new physical barrier and the Wall Fight, which is what Trump really wants continues. Yet it does not go on in a venue where Trump has already proven he cannot win. Trump might get a few holes excavating before the whole thing lurched to a halt waiting for the Courts.

As for another Shutdown, Trump is once again setting terms for Shutdown which is just about the equivalent of taking the blame for another Shutdown should one occur. The GOP simply cannot stand that politically as they are already black and blue everywhere outside of their own party for being a bunch of craven, spineless fools and it will become obvious pretty quickly that there is no actual way to shift blame for another Shutdown over to the Dems. Sorry Trumpets, there are not enough Americans that are that stupid.

But ultimately Trump and the GOP lose this fight whether in the courts or elsewhere. Chaos government does not make for a compelling reelection platform. They are just fueling their own demise at this point. While there are plenty of Trump supporters that voted for Trump because he would fight for them, blowing up institutions of government along the way, a fair number of those wanted Trump to fight with a goal in mind and they are not getting more than propaganda. There are some "fight for fightings sake" Trump voters. But IMO, you could not get elected dog catcher on that crowd alone.

Posturing is all Trump really knows how to do....OBVIOUSLY! It is certainly all he is good at.

 

[trixare4kids]

And the Left will say, "What caravan? Why is FOX always talking about the caravan?", until they pivot to, "Oh, the humanity at the border! Gassing women and children! Children are dyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyying!!!".

Uh, yeah. So, how about we fix this?

He's rippppppppppppppping them from their mother's arms.

Nope. They are not going to give him a nickel... this will never be fixed.
We have a lousy government and lousy it will remain until every one of these career lockstep obstructionist America haters are voted out of office.

 

[vaard]

I guarantee that if trump implemented his healthcare package where everyone got the best insurance and government paid for it all but no one would mind because it would be costing government such a small amount that the dems would be more than happy to give him his wall....

The amount of money America wpuld be saving would be in the trillions so 5-7 billion would be nothing.....

Then trump would fulfill two signature campaign promises......

 

[Rich2018]

I don't see DACA as an equal trade at this point. The only way I could feel okay about wall funding is by getting our top priority in return for their top priority, which is a comprehensive bill codifying voter rights, including:

• automatic registration
• banning registration purges
• an end to gerrymandering
• an end to voter id laws
• the right for college students to vote regardless of the state they're in
• returning voting rights to all ex-felons
• moving voting day to Saturday and Sunday
• extension of early voting time
• a mandated minimum number of voting stations based on population

And just for good measure, make that a Constitutional amendment so that future Congresses are less able to screw with it. If all of that happened, I could get on board with a wall.

I can see why you'd take that but building a wall is just such a stupid idea - unless you're talking about the part of the border not defined by the Rio Grande.


I'd give Trump a few miles of fence but not a $5.7 billion flagship structure - which is what he needs. "A Big Beautiful Wall" is what he promised.
No, force him out in 2020 and then enact comprehensive voting law reform.

I would add same day registration-voting too.

 

[Cardinal]

I can see why you'd take that but building a wall is just such a stupid idea - unless you're talking about the part of the border not defined by the Rio Grande.


I'd give Trump a few miles of fence but not a $5.7 billion flagship structure - which is what he needs. "A Big Beautiful Wall" is what he promised.
No, force him out in 2020 and then enact comprehensive voting law reform.

I would ass same day registration-voting too.

I know a wall is as stupid as it comes. The kind of voting rights bill I described would, in my mind, make me tolerate a wall (if not necessarily be happy about it).

I think that for every bad idea, there is always something that could make you live with it.

 

[jnug]

I guarantee that if trump implemented his healthcare package where everyone got the best insurance and government paid for it all but no one would mind because it would be costing government such a small amount that the dems would be more than happy to give him his wall....

The amount of money America wpuld be saving would be in the trillions so 5-7 billion would be nothing.....

Then trump would fulfill two signature campaign promises......

Oh goodie. Now lets throw Healthcare into the mix to go along with DACA just trying to get past this stupid Wall nonsense. This is not what is right about our constitutional process. This is a big part of what has gone wrong with it. "Lets make a deal" legislation and lets make it a big deal roping in every tom, dick and larry issue from both sides of the aisle to boot. NONSENSE....utter NONSENSE. There are 25 year olds in this country that have never actually seen their government function as it should and just don't know any better.

 

[Airyaman]

I've said it before: give us the plan for this "wall". Show us a solid proposal. Until then, use the money you haven't spent yet to come up with a proposal.

 

[Rich2018]

I think Trump should give citizenship to the DACA people in exchange for a few billion dollars for his wall/barrier/fence/whateveritisnow. Ann Coulter's head will explode.

When you say "give", do you mean offer it for free ?

Because Bush Jr made the cost of getting citizenship the legal way extremely expensive.

 

[Acadia]

I've said it before: give us the plan for this "wall". Show us a solid proposal. Until then, use the money you haven't spent yet to come up with a proposal.

Certainly Obama had a plan when Dems in the Senate all voted for 700 miles of wall in 2013, no? There must have been a plan, right? If Trump needs a plan for 230 miles of wall, surely the Dems had one for 700 miles.

So, where's the plan?

 

[Acadia]

Gotta love it! Trump needs a detailed plan for 230 miles of fencing, but Democrats needed to vote for Obamacare so they could find out what's in it!!
Typical Dems. Rules for thee, but not for me.

 

[Airyaman]

Certainly Obama had a plan when Dems in the Senate all voted for 700 miles of wall in 2013, no? There must have been a plan, right? If Trump needs a plan for 230 miles of wall, surely the Dems had one for 700 miles.

So, where's the plan?

230 miles?

 

[jnug]

I've said it before: give us the plan for this "wall". Show us a solid proposal. Until then, use the money you haven't spent yet to come up with a proposal.

Yup....and since nobody supporting Trump in the Congress or the Administration "proposing" this Wall has done any of that all this time, we would be about 3 months from an actual Appropriations Bill at best. So unless these negotiations can thread the needle to something that sorta' kinda' is funding for more border security framed such that Trump can sorta' kinda' call it what he intended all along.... here comes National Emergency throwing it to the courts.

Said actual proposal should identify how much physical barrier Trump actually wants to build as if he is given his money by bootstrapping it to a CR, then there is no guarantee that Trump won't be back for 230 miles more and then 230 miles more. In fact I can just about guarantee that he will be back for more bites of the apple if he gets to use a CR for 230 miles.

 

[Mycroft]

I don't think Trump is afraid to test the courts.

 

[Airyaman]

Yup....and since nobody supporting Trump in the Congress or the Administration "proposing" this Wall has done any of that all this time, we would be about 3 months from an actual Appropriations Bill at best. So unless these negotiations can thread the needle to something that sorta' kinda' is funding for more border security framed such that Trump can sorta' kinda' call it what he intended all along.... here comes National Emergency throwing it to the courts.

Said actual proposal should identify how much physical barrier Trump actually wants to build as if he is given his money by bootstrapping it to a CR, then there is no guarantee that Trump won't be back for 230 miles more and then 230 miles more. In fact I can just about guarantee that he will be back for more bites of the apple if he gets to use a CR for 230 miles.

So how much does he want for the 230 miles? $5.7B? That's almost $25M/mile. Too costly.