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Possibility: 2020 early vote > 2016 total vote?

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Slavister

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I've been keeping track of early voting, some of which I posted here.

According to expert who has been tracking this data for prior elections (and clearly this one is much different but still...), historically, this week should be slower and next week should have a lot more early votes.

However, I have not seen much of slow down in the swing states overall this week.

So much so that if overall the rate continues to be the same across remaining 10 days, we could have some swing states' 2020 early vote exceed their 2016 total vote.

Swing states doing the best (expected close to 100% or more): TX, GA, NC, AZ, FL.
Swing states doing the worst (expected 50%-70%): OH, PA (PA did not have any early votes in the past though), MN, MI
Swing states in between: WI, IA, NV

TX continues to be very impressive already clocking in 71% of its total 2016 votes as of this writing!

Hopefully TX is going blue!
 
Dem vs Rep votes are only reported in 3 of the12 swing states: FL, NC, NV. I had only tracked FL and NC and the Dem advantage has been shrinking. However, as number of independent voters is increasing, it's hard to say what the total / true Dem advantage is doing. (Plus, of course, some Dems may vote Trump and some Reps may vote Biden)

As of now, mid day of Oct 23,

FL: 420k more Dems (was close to 500k a few days ago). ~970k (~20%) independents voted
NC: 341k more Dems (was closer to 360k a couple days ago). ~788k (~29%) independents voted
NV: 28k more Dems. ~78k (21%) independents voted
 
Dem advantage morning of Oct 24 vs midday Oct 23:

FL: 390k (down from 420k); 1093k indepedents voted

NC: 328k (down from 341k); 870k indepedents voted

NV: 56k (up from 28k); 110k indepedents voted. McDonald mentioned in a tweet he had not posted something correctly about NV - not clear if that affects this spread from before.
 
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Oops, I missed that PA has a break down too! Dems outperform Reps by a LOT in PA so far (but only 24% of 2016 voters have voted so far in the state that traditionally has not allowed early voting). Dem advantage midday Oct 24:

PA: 736k; 134k independents voted
 
Dem vs Rep voted as of Oct 25
FL: 366k (keeps dropping fast!) but also 1193k (20.8%) independents
NC: 326k (barely moved down) / 915k (30.3%) independents
NV: 54k (barely moved down) / 143k (22.1%) independents
PA: no updates since yesterday
 
Dem vs Rep voted as of Oct 26 (midday)
PA: 839k / 162k (9.5%) independents <-- The Dem gap jumpted by 100k in 2 days!
FL: 355k / 1,263k (21.0%) independents <-- Dem gap continues to shrink!
NC: 329k / 938k (30.3%) independents <-- steady
NV: 54.6k / 154k (23.0%) independents <-- steady

Apparently, PA has relatively few independents but much larger D-R gap.
 
Slavister said:
Dem vs Rep voted as of Oct 26 (midday)
PA: 839k / 162k (9.5%) independents <-- The Dem gap jumpted by 100k in 2 days!
FL: 355k / 1,263k (21.0%) independents <-- Dem gap continues to shrink!
NC: 329k / 938k (30.3%) independents <-- steady
NV: 54.6k / 154k (23.0%) independents <-- steady

Apparently, PA has relatively few independents but much larger D-R gap.
Click to expand...
I'm an NC Independent. Voted for Biden on Sat. I think we could make a difference here, but we'll have to see.

What I like is that it appears that Wake county is having a great % turnout. I'm hoping that we can do something about Mecklenburg county, getting them to do better, to vote and that would really make this more favorable for Biden.
 
Slavister said:
Swing states doing the best (expected close to 100% or more): TX, GA, NC, AZ, FL.
Swing states doing the worst (expected 50%-70%): OH, PA (PA did not have any early votes in the past though), MN, MI
Swing states in between: WI, IA, NV

TX continues to be very impressive already clocking in 71% of its total 2016 votes as of this writing!

Hopefully TX is going blue!
Click to expand...

Update:

Swing states doing the best (expected close to 100% or more): TX, GA, NC, AZ, FL <-- still the top states in early voter turnout. They should at least be in high 90's (though my projections assume voting will continue all the way through Nov 2 which I think is not true everywhere!) TX still leading the pack!

Swing states doing the worst (expected 50%-70%): OH, PA (PA did not have any early votes in the past though), MN, MI, IA, WI <-- added IA, WI
Swing states in between: NV

PA: 881k / 181k (9.7%) independents <-- The Dem gap jumped AGAIN! For all the talk about PA being the most Trump-likely from the midwest swing states (other than OH), the shift continues into Biden territory!

FL: 299k / 1,361k (21.1%) independents <-- Dem gap continues to shrink AGAIN! Mirror opposite to PA movements. One difference between two states stats' - looks like FL has a LOT more UNKNOWN factor of all those independents.

PA has 881k Dem lead with only 181k independents that voted, almost 5:1 ratio. FL has 299k gap, but number of independents is 4 times as large: 1:4 ratio!

NC: 315k / 1015k (29.7%) independents <-- gap shrank a little. Overall about 10% down from Friday 5 days ago. Gap : independents ration is ~3:1

NV: 50k / 169k (22.8%) independents <-- gap shrank from Sunday (still much larger than Friday). Gap : independents ration is ~3:1

Getting a bad feeling about FL. Getting a good feeling about PA.
 
First time voter. Register independent just don't see the point in aligning yourself with a political party. 5 of my 6 siblings did the same.

We're not political in any sense. We never talk about issues but everyone is voting biden.

This might be the only time I'll vote just because I have quite a negative view on politics.
 
Cork said:
First time voter. Register independent just don't see the point in aligning yourself with a political party. 5 of my 6 siblings did the same.

We're not political in any sense. We never talk about issues but everyone is voting biden.

This might be the only time I'll vote just because I have quite a negative view on politics.
Click to expand...

This is exactly what I am hoping independents are doing. But we won't know for at least another week and maybe even later... Welcome to the board.

P.S. I hope you encourage other people you know to do the same! They'll listen to someone like you (who does not normally vote) more than anyone else...
 
Slavister said:
This is exactly what I am hoping independents are doing. But we won't know for at least another week and maybe even later... Welcome to the board.

P.S. I hope you encourage other people you know to do the same! They'll listen to someone like you (who does not normally vote) more than anyone else...
Click to expand...

I live in a pretty pro Trump area in Florida... I got most of my siblings to vote and me friends in Colorado.

Funny thing is my wifes family is pro Trump but they're aren't citizens yet. I don't talk politics to them but it drives me crazy. A lot of things they don't understand because they're not fluent in English and they get their news from some random guy on youtube that put his perspective on how donald trump been as president.

It's pretty bad.... They somehow got convince refugee is terrible when most vietnamese came over via refugee. The hypocrisy is maddening! We're vietnamese btw if you havent guess.
 
Cork said:
I live in a pretty pro Trump area in Florida... I got most of my siblings to vote and me friends in Colorado.

Funny thing is my wifes family is pro Trump but they're aren't citizens yet. I don't talk politics to them but it drives me crazy. A lot of things they don't understand because they're not fluent in English and they get their news from some random guy on youtube that put his perspective on how donald trump been as president.

It's pretty bad.... They somehow got convince refugee is terrible when most vietnamese came over via refugee. The hypocrisy is maddening! We're vietnamese btw if you havent guess.
Click to expand...

"The Social Dilemma" on Netflix explains a lot about how disinformation spreads ... but if they don't speak English, I am not sure they'll be able to watch it.
 
Oct 28 evening update for swing states that report Dem vs Rep votes:

PA: 928k / 197k (10.0%) independents <-- The Dem lead keeps going up STILL!

FL: 245k / 1,484k (21.5%) independents <-- Dem lead continues to shrink by a lot AGAIN! Mirror opposite to PA movements. One difference between two states stats: FL has a LOT more of an UNKNOWN factor of all those independents.

NC: 301k / 1085k (29.9%) independents <-- Dem lead is shrinking. Still about 3 times as many independents as the Dem lead is.

NV: 44k / 184k (22.9%) independents <-- Dem lead shrank further from Sunday (still much larger than Friday). 4 times as many independent as the lead size now.

TX is over 91% of its 2016 total vote. GA, AZ, NV, FL, NC are over 70% of their 2016 total vote. A lot of independents are voting and so a lot is unknown about those states still. PA is looking great though!
 
Oct 31'20 mid-day update for swing states that report Dem vs Rep votes: same trends as we've seen for over a week continue:

PA continues to accumulate Dem-vs-Rep lead, FL continues to lose it fast. NC and NV are also losing (slower). A lot more independents in the last 3 states vs PA.

PA: 1,016k (44%) lead / 11% independents

FL: 116k (1.4%) lead / 22% independents

NC: 255k (6%) lead / 30.7% independents

NV: 38k (4%) lead / 24% independents

TX is over 107% of total 2016 votes. GA, NC are over 91%+. FL, AZ, NV are 88%+.

PA only has 37% of 2016, so that awesome lead has a lot more play when majority comes out on Nov 3.

I sure hope independents across states break for Biden in a major way!
 
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