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Popular vote addendum to PEROTISTA’S 2016 SENATE, HOUSE and PRESIDENTIAL FORECAST May

Popular vote addendum to PEROTISTA’S 2016 SENATE, HOUSE and PRESIDENTIAL FORECAST May 2016

Gallup just released the party affiliation figures for May which I didn’t have for my May presidential, senate and house predictions. I use party affiliation/identification figures along with favorable/unfavorable ratings and polls between Clinton and Trump, their party’s leading candidates for their nomination. I also added to my model Libertarian Candidate Gary Johnson and Green Party candidate Jill Stein. Here is May's results:


April figures show Hillary Clinton winning with 50.8% of the popular vote to Donald Trump’s 44.9%, third party candidates would make up the difference adding up to 100%. April’s model was based on a 55% eligible voter turnout which is the historical norm. For May I based it on a 45-48% voter turnout as most polls show that between 14-18% of eligible voters stating they would either not vote or vote for a third party candidate. Utilizing this new model May’s popular vote results would be Clinton 47.1%, Trump 45.2%, Johnson 6.1% Stein 1.5%. The low voter turnout hurts Hillary Clinton more than Donald Trump as she fell 3.7 points and Trump rose 0.3 of a point. Two reasons for this in my opinion, the Republican Party has had some time to unify around Trump as their nominee whereas Clinton is still in a primary fight with Sanders. Keep in mind these figures are for May before Clinton cinched the nomination. The second reason is some of Sanders supporters will choose to sit out the election rather than vote for Clinton. That is the main reason Hillary dropped 3.7 points.

Most of Johnson’s and Stein’s support comes from the undecideds in a two candidate race of Trump vs. Clinton. Of their 7.6% vote total, they took about a point and a half from each candidate with their additional 4 points coming out of the undecided column in a two candidate race. The low voter model did not affect the electoral college total published in my May update. That total of 332-206 with Hillary Clinton winning remains unchanged in either the 55% or the 45-48% voter turnout model. Only the popular vote changes which in reality is purely irrelevant.
 
I suspect that lots of "Bernie or Bust" folks are going to become Stein supporters because her platform is nearly identical to Bernie's, and Stein is doing an amazing job of courting Bernie fans by publicly supporting Bernie and suggestion that she would step aside if he would run as a Greenie. I doubt that Bernie will be inclined to do so, but Stein still gets brownie points with that crowd.

Likewise there are still a lot of "Never Trump" folks who may decide to vote for either the libertarian ticket (as the next best alternative to the republican party) or the green ticket (as a protest vote against both Trump and Hillary).

I'd be surprised if either the libertarian party or the green party don't get at least 7-8% of the vote, and I'd almost bet that our next POTUS will not win even half of the total vote.
 
imagep;bt3519 said:
I suspect that lots of "Bernie or Bust" folks are going to become Stein supporters because her platform is nearly identical to Bernie's, and Stein is doing an amazing job of courting Bernie fans by publicly supporting Bernie and suggestion that she would step aside if he would run as a Greenie. I doubt that Bernie will be inclined to do so, but Stein still gets brownie points with that crowd.

Likewise there are still a lot of "Never Trump" folks who may decide to vote for either the libertarian ticket (as the next best alternative to the republican party) or the green ticket (as a protest vote against both Trump and Hillary).

I'd be surprised if either the libertarian party or the green party don't get at least 7-8% of the vote, and I'd almost bet that our next POTUS will not win even half of the total vote.


I did not know that about Jill Stein. For that I thank you. Also, this old Goldwater Conservative will be voting for Gary Johnson. I also think there will be a lot of normal voters who will refuse to vote because they dislike or hate, pick which word you want, both Trump and Clinton. I estimate at this time a Turnout of between 45-48%. That would set a record for the lowest voter turnout since records began to be kept in 1828. Only three time has voter turnout in an presidential election been below 50%. 1920, 1924 and 1996. All were in the 49% range.

One thing is for sure, this election is a unique one. Never before has two candidate had such low favorable ratings. 34% and 37%. G.H.W. Bush holds the record for the lowest favorable rating at 46%.
 
How are you doing, Pero? I miss you! Hope you and yours are all okay. Have you heard anything new from Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight? I can't shake the feeling that something really startling is going to happen at both conventions, but I haven't a clue what it might be. Too many old rules have been discussed in both parties with the thought being that changes may be needed. The electorate has shown by their votes that they aren't happy, so I wonder....
 
polgara;bt3521 said:
How are you doing, Pero? I miss you! Hope you and yours are all okay. Have you heard anything new from Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight? I can't shake the feeling that something really startling is going to happen at both conventions, but I haven't a clue what it might be. Too many old rules have been discussed in both parties with the thought being that changes may be needed. The electorate has shown by their votes that they aren't happy, so I wonder....

I don’t know what is going to happen at the conventions. My guess is the left will demonstrate and protest outside the convention hall in Cleveland. Perhaps causing violence in the streets. The convention itself will go off rather smoothly. The Republican Party is stuck with Trump and I think the Republican Party Leaders know that. That they resigned themselves to the fact Trump is their nominee, for good or bad.

As for the Democrats, President Obama will endorse Clinton either later this week or next week sometime taking a lot of the wind out of Sanders sails. Heck Clinton has received 4 million more votes than Sanders, he lost. I suspect quite a few of Sanders supporters will not vote in November. They’re young idealistic kids and they were for Sanders, not the Democratic Party and not for Hillary Clinton. A lot of the never Trump crowd will also not vote, neither Sanders supporters or the anti-Trump conservatives will cross over to vote for the other party’s candidate.

As for changing the rules, most of them have been in place since just before the 1976 election and every party's candidate for the nominee has abided by them with no complaints. That is until Trump and Sanders. Personally I wish they would go back to their smoke filled rooms to choose their candidates. Use the convention to do that with multiple rounds of voting. At least the candidates were vetted then and we got candidates that most of the people could support. There would be no candidate that might be brought up on fraud charges or one who jeopardized national security information. November may be an election as to which criminal one wants sitting in the white house. When over 60% of All Americans dislike both candidates, our two party system's way of nominating them is a complete and utter failure. It’s bound to get worse.

One other thing Pol, a pet peeve of mine. I keep hearing from Trump supporters that the people have spoken or the will of the people. Really? The will of 40% of the party which has the smaller base which can vote in the primary, the base of the GOP is 25-28%. So when Trump’s supporters talk about the will of the people they are talking about 40% of a quarter of the electorate. They totally disregard the 60% of Republicans who didn’t want Trump and voted for someone else. So is 60% more of the will of the people or is 40%.

I’ll send you an e-mail.
 
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