Popular vote addendum to PEROTISTA’S 2016 SENATE, HOUSE and PRESIDENTIAL FORECAST May 2016
Gallup just released the party affiliation figures for May which I didn’t have for my May presidential, senate and house predictions. I use party affiliation/identification figures along with favorable/unfavorable ratings and polls between Clinton and Trump, their party’s leading candidates for their nomination. I also added to my model Libertarian Candidate Gary Johnson and Green Party candidate Jill Stein. Here is May's results:
April figures show Hillary Clinton winning with 50.8% of the popular vote to Donald Trump’s 44.9%, third party candidates would make up the difference adding up to 100%. April’s model was based on a 55% eligible voter turnout which is the historical norm. For May I based it on a 45-48% voter turnout as most polls show that between 14-18% of eligible voters stating they would either not vote or vote for a third party candidate. Utilizing this new model May’s popular vote results would be Clinton 47.1%, Trump 45.2%, Johnson 6.1% Stein 1.5%. The low voter turnout hurts Hillary Clinton more than Donald Trump as she fell 3.7 points and Trump rose 0.3 of a point. Two reasons for this in my opinion, the Republican Party has had some time to unify around Trump as their nominee whereas Clinton is still in a primary fight with Sanders. Keep in mind these figures are for May before Clinton cinched the nomination. The second reason is some of Sanders supporters will choose to sit out the election rather than vote for Clinton. That is the main reason Hillary dropped 3.7 points.
Most of Johnson’s and Stein’s support comes from the undecideds in a two candidate race of Trump vs. Clinton. Of their 7.6% vote total, they took about a point and a half from each candidate with their additional 4 points coming out of the undecided column in a two candidate race. The low voter model did not affect the electoral college total published in my May update. That total of 332-206 with Hillary Clinton winning remains unchanged in either the 55% or the 45-48% voter turnout model. Only the popular vote changes which in reality is purely irrelevant.
Gallup just released the party affiliation figures for May which I didn’t have for my May presidential, senate and house predictions. I use party affiliation/identification figures along with favorable/unfavorable ratings and polls between Clinton and Trump, their party’s leading candidates for their nomination. I also added to my model Libertarian Candidate Gary Johnson and Green Party candidate Jill Stein. Here is May's results:
April figures show Hillary Clinton winning with 50.8% of the popular vote to Donald Trump’s 44.9%, third party candidates would make up the difference adding up to 100%. April’s model was based on a 55% eligible voter turnout which is the historical norm. For May I based it on a 45-48% voter turnout as most polls show that between 14-18% of eligible voters stating they would either not vote or vote for a third party candidate. Utilizing this new model May’s popular vote results would be Clinton 47.1%, Trump 45.2%, Johnson 6.1% Stein 1.5%. The low voter turnout hurts Hillary Clinton more than Donald Trump as she fell 3.7 points and Trump rose 0.3 of a point. Two reasons for this in my opinion, the Republican Party has had some time to unify around Trump as their nominee whereas Clinton is still in a primary fight with Sanders. Keep in mind these figures are for May before Clinton cinched the nomination. The second reason is some of Sanders supporters will choose to sit out the election rather than vote for Clinton. That is the main reason Hillary dropped 3.7 points.
Most of Johnson’s and Stein’s support comes from the undecideds in a two candidate race of Trump vs. Clinton. Of their 7.6% vote total, they took about a point and a half from each candidate with their additional 4 points coming out of the undecided column in a two candidate race. The low voter model did not affect the electoral college total published in my May update. That total of 332-206 with Hillary Clinton winning remains unchanged in either the 55% or the 45-48% voter turnout model. Only the popular vote changes which in reality is purely irrelevant.