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Polls: Trump is still doing better than Harris (compared to 2020)

S

Slavister

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This is an update to my earlier thread of 2020 vs 2024 polls.

I had pointed out there that nationally in 2020 and in swing states, Biden was quite ahead of Trump according to 538 collection of polls. Yet, in the end, despite winning popular vote by many millions, Biden barely won in 2020 by just 44,000 votes in Georgia, Arizona and Wisconsin.

I wanted to check how the polls compare now for Harris (which clearly is doing better than Biden!) vs Trump.

August 13'2020: Biden - Trump
Nationally: 8.1 ahead August 13'2020, 8.4 ahead in November
PA: 6.3 ahead August 13'2020, 4.7 ahead in November
MI: 7.5 ahead August 13'2020, 7.9 ahead in November
WI: 7.0 ahead August 13'2020, 8.4 ahead in November
GA: 0.5 behind August 13'2020, 1.2 ahead in November
AZ: 3.4 ahead August 13'2020, 3.2 ahead in November

August 13'2024: Harris - Trump
Nationally: 2.7 ahead August 13'2024
PA: 1.6 ahead August 13'2024
MI: 3.3 ahead August 13'2024
WI: 3.3 ahead August 13'2024
GA: 0.1 behind August 13'2024
AZ: 0.3 ahead August 13'2024

So, while Harris is doing better vs Trump than Biden did earlier this year, Harris still has a long road ahead of her to get to where Biden needed to be in 2020 to barely win EC.
 
.......but she has done it in 4 weeks!
 

Biden is not running and it is not 2020.
 
This reminds me of similar news from Enten on CNN, also discussing August 13th vs election day. He included both 2016 and 2020 and he is only discussing the first 3 of the 5 states you are discussing. It's a short segment, but interesting. I'm sure you'll find it of interest since it's just exactly the topic you are discussing in this OP.

 
Harry is the best!!!!
 
I have concerns along the lines of the OP, but it is important to recognize that the polls are not guaranteed to be underestimating Trump support in the same way they did in 2016 and, to a lesser extent, in 2020. The pollsters have been adjusting their models to account for those “errors”. It is very possible today’s polls could be overestimating Trump support, in the same way they overestimated MAGA support in 2022.

Nothing we can do except wait and vote.
 
Once the Word Salad Queen starts talking to the American People her numbers should tank some more!
If they can hide her in Biden's Basement that'll help !

 
NoMoreDems-Reps said:
Once the Word Salad Queen starts talking to the American People her numbers should tank some more!
If they can hide her in Biden's Basement that'll help !
Click to expand...
This seems to be the new Democratic strategy. Hide their candidate while the media works to get them elected.
 
BirdinHand said:
Perhaps the GOP will learn not to run Donald Trump as a candidate
Click to expand...
He wasn't my first choice (or second or third, for that matter), but the voters spoke otherwise. In any case, he certainly did better than McCain or Romney did.
 
BirdinHand said:
Yep.


Sleep when we are dead. There’s work to be done to make sure Harris wins and Trump never again holds any power.
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There are few people I wouldn't vote for over Kamala Harris and most any democrat. Far out leftist with crazy policies full of lies and who obviously hate America.
 
RCP has Harris over Trump in MI and WI, but with her behind Trump in PA. However, I can't see Harris losing PA while winning WI. I would think that Harris has a better chance at winning PA than WI.

Top Battlegrounds – RCP Average

www.realclearpolling.com
 

Her campaign is well aware of this.
 
The polls are still settling down, with the composite polls still factoring in statewide polls of 2 or more weeks ago. Another week before you have a clear picture of all of this.
 
538 has her ahead in PA as well as MI and WI

ABC News – Breaking News, Latest News and Videos

ABC News is your trusted source on political news stories and videos. Get the latest coverage and analysis on everything from the Trump presidency, Senate, House and Supreme Court.
projects.fivethirtyeight.com
 
Which is why I signed up for Vote Forward again this year, to send out postcards and letters to swing states. I did it in 2020 and I will spend October doing it as well. Can't stop working.
 
Totally agree with this. A lot of us are just assuming that the polls are underestimating Trump again. I think we shouldn't assume anything! For all we know, they could be overestimating Trump this time.
 
Regarding the votes with independents, I predict we'll be seeing more polls similar to the Fox News Poll released this afternoon.

 
We were in a recession in 2020. The challenger would have high numbers, when the economy is bleak.
 
trixare4kids said:
Regarding the votes with independents, I predict we'll be seeing more polls similar to the Fox News Poll released this afternoon.

Click to expand...
Yeah, there was an outlier poll today.
 
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