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Polls: Trump Closing In On Clinton

Abbazorkzog

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I'm not just mad because I think Bernie Sanders is better on policy, and empirically better as a political candidate. I'm also mad because I don't want Donald Trump to be President of the United States! YOU COULDN'T HAND HIM A BETTER DEMOCRAT TO RUN AGAINST! God they LIE OVER AND OVER AGAIN! I don't know what's worse: their LIES or their IGNORANCE in Washington and New York. "Oh, Hillary's great! Hillary's great! I'll close my eyes to all the numbers." Finally, we go to Natalie Jackson at Huffington Post, saying, 'Until we have more polls," And this is just one indication, I'm using this as an example and to be fair to her there are about a dozen articles today saying things just exactly like this, "and as long as Clinton is still battling Sanders, the general election numbers will be unstable. So don't freak out about an individual poll result. Wait until June for more stability and in the meantime look at the polling averages. HuffPost Pollster's averages show Clinton 3 points ahead in Florida, 1 point in front in Ohio and leading by 5 points in Pennsylvania." Wait a minute, first of all - I just quoted you 3 polls from TODAY. TODAY. Let alone, EVERY OTHER POLL showing Bernie Sanders winning. You CAN'T show me a SINGLE poll done in the last - what - 2 months, 3 months, 4 months... that has Hillary Clinton doing better against ANY Republican than Bernie Sanders. You can't show it. It doesn't exist. I can show you DOZENS of polls. Right? "Oh, it's just one poll!" NO, it's NOT one poll! That's a LIE!

And in order to reassure us, and not have us freak-out, "Oh don't worry, in my combination of polls: Hillary Clinton is up by ONE POINT in Ohio, to Donald-Frikken-Trump. No, no, no - I think you missed it. That is not a reason NOT to freak-out. That is a reason to freak-out. So, OK, the arrogance of the Democratic Party, and every pundit in Washington, New York continues. "We know better than the American people, we know Hillary Clinton is a 'wonderful' candidate, we know that Bernie Sanders can't win (even though EVERY POLL shows the opposite). And we know you shouldn't take Donald Trump seriously, c'mon! He's less popular than lice! No, don't worry about Hillary's negative 20 in favorability in the state of Florida! Don't worry about it! Close your eyes to it! Everything'll be fine!" No, I'm telling you right now. Everything is not going to be fine if we continue on this trajectory. You have to change the dynamic of this race immediately. The fact that she is TIED with Donald Trump, right now, in those swing-states, is ABYSMAL. If you're a Progressive you should be absolutely FRIGHTENED by that.

I've said it before, I'll say it again - Hillary R. Clinton - if you do not concede to Bernie Sanders, if you do not at least make him your running-mate - YOU ARE GOING TO LOSE and hand Donald ****ing Trump the WHITE HOUSE and DOOM THIS ENTIRE ****ING COUNTRY.
Shame on you, you selfish, arrogant, corrupt, lying, cheating, elitist, sell-out.

Considering how nasty this discussion might get, mods. You might wanna keep an eye on it to move downstairs, just in case.
 
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joG

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I've said it before, I'll say it again - Hillary R. Clinton - if you do not concede to Bernie Sanders, if you do not at least make him your running-mate - YOU ARE GOING TO LOSE and hand Donald ****ing Trump the WHITE HOUSE and DOOM THIS ENTIRE ****ING COUNTRY.
Shame on you, you selfish, arrogant, corrupt, lying, cheating, elitist, sell-out.

Considering how nasty this discussion might get, mods. You might wanna keep an eye on it to move downstairs, just in case.

She could always take Kerry as her mate.
 

Cyrylek

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The only problem here is that Bernie Sanders is every bit as horrible as Trump in terms of policy, if not personality.
I am prepared to vote for Hillary in November, with revulsion - to prevent Trump from happening. There's no way in hell I would vote for Sanders or for Trump. And that, I believe, is the prevailing mood among moderates, libertarians and #NeverTrump Republicans.

The current polls reflect the populist psychosis that in the end will benefit The Donald more than anyone else. By November, things will stabilize, and if the choice is between the detestable but in the end cynically pragmatic Robot-Lizard Lady and Trump, Trump most probably loses (65:35 probability, I'd say).
If it is Bernie, only the loony-bin Far Left will be really engaged. The very people who would reluctantly give Clinton the margin of victory will sit it out, and Trump is President for sure.
 

Cyrylek

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Sort of, Trump is closing some distance and doing better in certain polling but the overall spread still has Hillary out front by at least +6.

It is going to be a long election season...

View attachment 67201256

RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - General Election: Trump vs. Clinton

6 points in May...Means absolutely nothing. Dukakis was leading Bush Sr. by 20 in July.

The problem is that Trump is enormously exciting for his growing base, and Clinton is more like the root canal you have do to stop worse things to happening.
People are known to shirk unpleasant duties.

She is still more likely to win, but not a sure thing at all.
 

OrphanSlug

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6 points in May...Means absolutely nothing. Dukakis was leading Bush Sr. by 20 in July.

The problem is that Trump is enormously exciting for his growing base, and Clinton is more like the root canal you have do to stop worse things to happening.
People are known to shirk unpleasant duties.

She is still more likely to win, but not a sure thing at all.

I'm with you, not trying to say this is all over and decided today.

Just saying that by trend Trump has some work to do and we have to evaluate that "growing base" with respect for what has happened to the GOP this season. Arguably, there could be a few demographics that either stay home or get behind a 3rd party candidate (Independent, Libertarian, what have you.)

It brings up questions. Do far right social conservatives stay home or do they vote for Trump just to ensure Hillary does not win? Do establishment Republicans finally get behind Trump or are they waiting for the convention to see if party leadership does something really stupid? What to Independents do who might either stay home or get behind Hillary out of fear of a Trump presidency? Is this the election season for a 3rd party to capitalize?

There is plenty to still play out that these polls (and aggregates of them) may not be telling us enough about just yet. We also have to evaluate who Clinton and Trump pick as VP running mates, and that is still a bit all over the place but could be impacting to these polling trends in the coming months.
 

Citizen.Seven

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This will come down to the qustion "who will get the greatest joy punishing their enemy?" . Both Trump and Clinton have a relatively small base that actually want to vote for their candidate. Both candidates are despised by a large section of the voting public, some one or the other and some both. I think Trump has larger negatives, but is the intensity of the negatives sufficient (statistically) to overcome the negatives of Clinton? Current polls indicate yes, but it's still pretty early, before either convention.

If one looks at this as establishment vs anti-establishment election, Trump clearly has the edge. However, one must be careful not to ascribe too much political power to the anti-establishment crowd: people always say they want nob-insiders in greater numbers than they vote for them. When was the last time someone outside the political class was elected POTUS? Eisenhower, maybe, but even that's a stretch considering the history the US has with electing former generals.
 

tres borrachos

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There's really not much value in her picking Sanders as her Veep choice. The Sanders people won't vote for Trump and because they are adamant about it, they will vote for Clinton. They don't want Trump to win.
 

Abbazorkzog

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There's really not much value in her picking Sanders as her Veep choice. The Sanders people won't vote for Trump and because they are adamant about it, they will vote for Clinton. They don't want Trump to win.

There's a huge chunk of Bernie's fanbase that will not under any circumstances vote for Clinton. Probably big enough to hand Trump the keys to the White House.
 

Skeptic Bob

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There's a huge chunk of Bernie's fanbase that will not under any circumstances vote for Clinton. Probably big enough to hand Trump the keys to the White House.

You are right. There are many Bernie supporters who won't vote for her. I am one. But there are also Republicans who won't vote for Trump. Which group is bigger, I don't know.
 

Winchester

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There's a huge chunk of Bernie's fanbase that will not under any circumstances vote for Clinton. Probably big enough to hand Trump the keys to the White House.

I agree, they'll probably stay home.
 

tres borrachos

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There's a huge chunk of Bernie's fanbase that will not under any circumstances vote for Clinton. Probably big enough to hand Trump the keys to the White House.

That's true. And there's also a huge chunk of consistent Republican voters that will not under any circumstances vote for Trump. Like me, for instance.
 

Frank Apisa

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Not sure why anyone should reply to a thread where the OP writes, "Shame on you, you selfish, arrogant, corrupt, lying, cheating, elitist, sell-out" and then has the audacity to warn the moderators that the thread MAY GET nasty.

But I will do it.

Hillary Clinton is not going to simply drop out in favor of Sanders...and how anyone can suppose a guy who has described himself as a Socialist for years has a better shot of winning the presidency than she...is beyond me.

Hillary Clinton CAN beat Donald Trump...and more than likely will.

Yes, there are some Sanders supporters who will not vote for her...but I suspect most of them will live in states where the result will almost certainly not matter. In places where a few votes might matter, I think the Sanders people will bite the bullet and vote for Hillary even though they dislike her. The notion of Donald Trump possibly becoming president of this nation should be enough for even a die-hard conservative to vote for Hillary.
 

TheGoverness

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There's a huge chunk of Bernie's fanbase that will not under any circumstances vote for Clinton. Probably big enough to hand Trump the keys to the White House.
And I am one of them. But I don't know if I'm going to vote for Trump. Most likely I'm gonna vote 3rd Party. Or just stay home and watch it all tumble down.
 

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Lovebug

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I've said it before, I'll say it again - Hillary R. Clinton - if you do not concede to Bernie Sanders, if you do not at least make him your running-mate - YOU ARE GOING TO LOSE and hand Donald ****ing Trump the WHITE HOUSE and DOOM THIS ENTIRE ****ING COUNTRY.
Shame on you, you selfish, arrogant, corrupt, lying, cheating, elitist, sell-out.

Not sure what is the lesser of the 2 evils. They might as well hold hands and go to the WH together. Hold that thought, that's what nightmares are made of.
 

Abbazorkzog

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That's true. And there's also a huge chunk of consistent Republican voters that will not under any circumstances vote for Trump. Like me, for instance.

Right. The other factor is the former-BoBs that are now voting for Trump, like Captain Adverse.
So, again, like Cenk said, the problem here is the arrogant establishment underestimating Trump thinking he'll be a cakewalk.
Yeah, that's what the other 16 Republicans that ran against him thought, too...
 

Quag

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Not sure what is the lesser of the 2 evils. They might as well hold hands and go to the WH together. Hold that thought, that's what nightmares are made of.
Hmm interesting concept.
Could Hillary name Trump as her running mate and Trump, Clinton as his?
 

Captain Adverse

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Right. The other factor is the former-BoBs that are now voting for Trump, like Captain Adverse.
So, again, like Cenk said, the problem here is the arrogant establishment underestimating Trump thinking he'll be a cakewalk.
Yeah, that's what the other 16 Republicans that ran against him thought, too...

Hey! I take umbrage, and cabbage, and w/e other "-age" to that allegation! ;)

If you thought I was a Bernie or Bust (I assume that's what former-BoBs meant) member you've mistaken my position. I many be libertarian-left but I am hardly a socialist/social justice warrior.

I will admit that if it were a Bernie v Trump race I might have voted for Sanders over Trump; but I would have had to see how their final positions actually shook out AND find out where Bernie actually stood on Second Amendment principals vis-a-vis appointment of SCOTUS candidates. Hardly a Bernie-or-bust; more of a #NeverHillary I'd say.
 

Lovebug

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Hmm interesting concept.
Could Hillary name Trump as her running mate and Trump, Clinton as his?

Since Hillary had most super delegates in the bag before we got started, I believe pigs can fly.
 

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Since Hillary had most super delegates in the bag before we got started, I believe pigs can fly.

Right now...WITHOUT ANY SUPER DELEGATE VOTES...the count stands at:

Hillary Clinton 1705

Bernie Sanders 1414

Hillary Clinton is leading by almost 300 votes...WITHOUT ANY SUPER DELEGATES.

In raw votes...Hillary Clinton leads Bernie Sanders by over 2 million votes...Clinton 9.4 million to Sanders 7 million.

What is all this nonsense about the super delegates?
 

Lovebug

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Right now...WITHOUT ANY SUPER DELEGATE VOTES...the count stands at:

Hillary Clinton 1705

Bernie Sanders 1414

Hillary Clinton is leading by almost 300 votes...WITHOUT ANY SUPER DELEGATES.

In raw votes...Hillary Clinton leads Bernie Sanders by over 2 million votes...Clinton 9.4 million to Sanders 7 million.

What is all this nonsense about the super delegates?

Here is my issue with that. Since Clinton bowed down in 2008, she has been the presumed nominee for 2016. Super delegates reflect as much. Dems needed a puppet to run against her, found one in Sanders, but never fathomed him becoming this popular. An old man who hardly anyone had heard of is giving the queen a run for her money. How crazy is that?
So now the Dems have a dilemma. By all counts, Sanders is more popular than Clinton could have ever imagined.
What's more, the race is not yet over, Clinton keeps dangling all kind of baggage behind her, and Trump is calling her out on it.
Hey, you are probably right that she will win the nomination, but it is not because she earned it. She will be because it was predetermined to be so.
If Dem voters, mainly Sanders supporters, have any backbone at all, they will stand up for themselves at the convention.
Bernie Sanders Could Still Win the Democratic Nomination -- No, Seriously
 

Frank Apisa

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Here is my issue with that. Since Clinton bowed down in 2008, she has been the presumed nominee for 2016. Super delegates reflect as much.

That is no "issue with that."

She IS winning...both in delegates won count...and in raw numbers of primary voters. She IS winning without the super delegates.


Dems needed a puppet to run against her, found one in Sanders, but never fathomed him becoming this popular. An old man who hardly anyone had heard of is giving the queen a run for her money. How crazy is that?

C'mon, Lovebug. That is NOT how the process worked.

Anyone who wanted to run could run. The Dems did not select Bernie Sanders to run against her...HE SELECTED HIMSELF. And to his credit, he is doing very, very nicely. (Even if the Republicans early in the game kept accusing the opposition of having no contest.)



So now the Dems have a dilemma. By all counts, Sanders is more popular than Clinton could have ever imagined.

MORE DELEGATES WON...AND MORE RAW COUNT!!!!!!!!!




What's more, the race is not yet over, Clinton keeps dangling all kind of baggage behind her, and Trump is calling her out on it.

You are correct on that. Trump will be his normal revolting self. This will be a horrible campaign to witness.



Hey, you are probably right that she will win the nomination, but it is not because she earned it. She will be because it was predetermined to be so.


MORE DELEGATES WON...AND MORE RAW COUNT!!!!!!!!!


How many more times does that have to be said in order for it to penetrate.

If Dem voters, mainly Sanders supporters, have any backbone at all, they will stand up for themselves at the convention.

You are welcome to that opinion. I could not disagree more.
 

Lovebug

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That is no "issue with that."

She IS winning...both in delegates won count...and in raw numbers of primary voters. She IS winning without the super delegates.




C'mon, Lovebug. That is NOT how the process worked.

Anyone who wanted to run could run. The Dems did not select Bernie Sanders to run against her...HE SELECTED HIMSELF. And to his credit, he is doing very, very nicely. (Even if the Republicans early in the game kept accusing the opposition of having no contest.)





MORE DELEGATES WON...AND MORE RAW COUNT!!!!!!!!!






You are correct on that. Trump will be his normal revolting self. This will be a horrible campaign to witness.






MORE DELEGATES WON...AND MORE RAW COUNT!!!!!!!!!


How many more times does that have to be said in order for it to penetrate.



You are welcome to that opinion. I could not disagree more.

Lunch? :)
 
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