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Polls conflicted. 4 point lead or 11 point lead?

Carolina

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The Hill's 44-40 poll # are probably more accurate.
 
Polls will inevitably tighten as we draw closer to the election. Romney and Obama were neck and neck in 2012, Clinton was ahead only by 2 points by November, and even McCain surged over Obama in September 2008 before Obama rose again.

I suspect we'll get a lot of polls in the coming months that will say Trump or Biden are on top or within the margin of error. We still have three months to go. A lot can happen.
 
CNN released polls with Biden having a much narrower 4 point advantage, while ABC released a poll showing Biden having a Double Digit Lead going into the Convention today. Both polls have a margin of error of 4 points. This tells me the likely lead is somewhere around 7.5-8% going into the Conventions.



https://www.washingtonpost.com/poli...c9c312-dfe6-11ea-8dd2-d07812bf00f7_story.html

Dueling polls split on size of Biden’s lead ahead of Dem convention - POLITICO

Going with one poll and ignoring the others is always a bad idea.

Thats why the best sites like RCP and 538 compile all polls and weight for accuracy and bias. Both sites have the general consensus somewhere about 8 points in Biden's favor, 538 a little higher, RCP a little lower.

And its been pretty darn stable for a couple months.
 
Polls will inevitably tighten as we draw closer to the election. Romney and Obama were neck and neck in 2012, Clinton was ahead only by 2 points by November, and even McCain surged over Obama in September 2008 before Obama rose again.

I suspect we'll get a lot of polls in the coming months that will say Trump or Biden are on top or within the margin of error. We still have three months to go. A lot can happen.

I bet they won’t. The strong unfavorables are huge on both sides- there’s very little undecided or barely leaning.
 
Going with one poll and ignoring the others is always a bad idea.

Thats why the best sites like RCP and 538 compile all polls and weight for accuracy and bias. Both sites have the general consensus somewhere about 8 points in Biden's favor, 538 a little higher, RCP a little lower.

And its been pretty darn stable for a couple months.

it is not possible to "weigh a poll for accuracy."

Just an FYI.
 
it is not possible to "weigh a poll for accuracy."

Just an FYI.

Sure it is. When you have a solid track record from a particular polling firm that slants R or D consistently, you can factor that into weightings.

Also, more accurate polls with better track records can get a higher weighting than less accurate, smaller polls.
 
Yeah. No. RCP is the better source with a much broader spectrum of polling than 538

RCP is a simple model, 538 does weighting and throws out bad pollsters with suspected fraudulent data.

It’s not possible to know which is more accurate- Silver’s algorithm or the simple lost. But they both essentially agree.

The ‘broad spectrum’ might be a bad think of bad data is being equally weighted with good data.
 
At the risk of coming across like a trump supporter, these national polls really don't mean anything. The only margins that matter are in the individual swing states, and as Nate Silver points out there are very few good polls coming out of there. We know they're tight, but that's about it.

But if you absolutely must, this is 538's electoral map right now.

Screen Shot 2020-08-17 at 10.29.32 AM.jpg
 
CNN released polls with Biden having a much narrower 4 point advantage, while ABC released a poll showing Biden having a Double Digit Lead going into the Convention today. Both polls have a margin of error of 4 points. This tells me the likely lead is somewhere around 7.5-8% going into the Conventions.



https://www.washingtonpost.com/poli...c9c312-dfe6-11ea-8dd2-d07812bf00f7_story.html

Dueling polls split on size of Biden’s lead ahead of Dem convention - POLITICO

Different polls give different results.

You can find polls to tell you whatever you want to believe.
 
What is the difference between the two polls? My guess, is one either over or under-represented republicans/democrats. I don't have time to look at the internals, but maybe some else does.
 
CNN released polls with Biden having a much narrower 4 point advantage, while ABC released a poll showing Biden having a Double Digit Lead going into the Convention today....
This is very common in polls. It's why aggregators like 538 and RCP are generally more reliable. They combine multiple polls, and weight them for accuracy.

538 currently has Biden with a 7 point lead; RCP has 7.7 points.

FYI, conventions are a lot of hype and little substance, in terms of electoral prospects.
 
Sure it is. When you have a solid track record from a particular polling firm that slants R or D consistently, you can factor that into weightings.

Also, more accurate polls with better track records can get a higher weighting than less accurate, smaller polls.

dude, i get this but it's nonsense

a poll is a snapshot in time, there is no way to prove one of those snapshots is right or more right than another
 
dude, i get this but it's nonsense

a poll is a snapshot in time, there is no way to prove one of those snapshots is right or more right than another

Polls can have inherent biases in the ways it is sampled.

If a poll seems to have a consistent bias of, say, about 2% leaning toward dems, after analyzing hundreds of polls over years, doesn’t it make sense to ‘weight’ that result a bit more toward the right?

Or, if one poll samples 20 people and another samples 20,000, why should they be weighted equally?
 
CNN released polls with Biden having a much narrower 4 point advantage, while ABC released a poll showing Biden having a Double Digit Lead going into the Convention today. Both polls have a margin of error of 4 points. This tells me the likely lead is somewhere around 7.5-8% going into the Conventions.



https://www.washingtonpost.com/poli...c9c312-dfe6-11ea-8dd2-d07812bf00f7_story.html

Dueling polls split on size of Biden’s lead ahead of Dem convention - POLITICO

Check the number of Dems and Reps reached by pollsters.

It varies from a 2% difference (Zogby) to something like an 11% difference (YouGuv’s previous poll)
 
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it is not possible to "weigh a poll for accuracy."

Just an FYI.

However, using historical data, it is feasible to assign a 'lean' to a pollsters results.
 
CNN released polls with Biden having a much narrower 4 point advantage, while ABC released a poll showing Biden having a Double Digit Lead going into the Convention today. Both polls have a margin of error of 4 points. This tells me the likely lead is somewhere around 7.5-8% going into the Conventions.



https://www.washingtonpost.com/poli...c9c312-dfe6-11ea-8dd2-d07812bf00f7_story.html

Dueling polls split on size of Biden’s lead ahead of Dem convention - POLITICO

It's rather simple math. If one poll says Biden is ahead by 4 points and another says he's ahead by 11 points you just add them together and find that Biden is ahead by 411%!
 
I have a hunch that some of these polls showing Biden with excessively large leads are focusing on major metro areas, and underrepresenting rural voters.
 
I have a hunch that some of these polls showing Biden with excessively large leads are focusing on major metro areas, and underrepresenting rural voters.

More people live in major metro areas.

And trust me...poll designers know way more than you about poll sampling.

You continually have demonstrated that you literally have no idea what you’re talking about.
 
More people live in major metro areas.

And trust me...poll designers know way more than you about poll sampling.

Yeah, lol, they are all spot on. Biden is both 15 points ahead, and 4 points ahead.

Go back to your area of expertise, which is not this. ;)
 
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Doesn't matter to me. After last time around, I don't trust polls.
 
Lol, brilliant, 3Goofs.

Underrepresented compared to their actual demographic numbers.

Again, you are WAY out of your field. :mrgreen:

Are they? Show us by looking at the polling methodology.

Polling and random sampling is the heart of political science.

Or is your ‘political science’ work just in saying dumb stuff and seeing if it sticks?
 
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