EvaPeron
DP Veteran
- Joined
- Jun 7, 2016
- Messages
- 1,145
- Reaction score
- 386
- Gender
- Female
- Political Leaning
- Slightly Conservative
I'd like to spend more time on research but for now - see chart below. The percentages on the left under Reagan/Carter/Anderson were recorded polls for that election cycle.
When numbers appear to the right, I took all the shown polling from June/July/August in just the Presidential campaign to see how things were going - as compared to hearing from the biased media. While there are too many to list, there are a number where Trump beats Hillary but I took the total numbers for each and then divided by the total number of polls to get an average polling number. The margins are really not what everyone seems to think.
Your Thoughts??????
A couple of things that surprise me:
He lost the majority of the polls between August and November yet he won by a margin of 10%
The numbers for the Liberal candidate were so much higher than what is polling now.
I think we all put way too much into the media and all the stuff they predict is going to happen. Clearly, Ronald Reagan won this election as an outside establishment candidate. His timing, while not quite the same as Trump's timing, was still at a very unsettling time in American History.
Yet, if you read the media - they've practically got Donald going home and crying like a little baby over this imaginary made up loss in November.
Right now it is anyone's election to win/to lose.
1980[2]
Month Reagan TRUMP (R) Carter CLINTON(D) % Anderson JOHNSON (I) %
December 1979/January 1980 33% 62%
February/March 31% 60%
33% 58%
34% 40% 21%
April/May 34% 41% 18%
32% 38% 21%
32% 40% 21%
June/July 32% 37.15 39% 41.40 21% 6.89 -7/-4.25
33% 37.87 35% 46.00 24% 7.60 -2/-8.13
37% 38.28 32% 40.81 22% 7.68 +5/-2.53
37% 39.18 34% 41.71 21% 6.73 +3/-2.53
40.48 41.89 6.92 ?/-1.41
August/September 45% 39.20 29% 44.80 14% 7.89 +16/-5.6
38% 39% 13% -1/?
39% 39% 14% -0/?
October/November 40% 44% 9% -4/?
39% 45% 9% -6/?
47% 44% 8% +3/?
Actual result 51% 41% 7% +10/?
Difference between actual result and final poll +4% -3% -1%
When numbers appear to the right, I took all the shown polling from June/July/August in just the Presidential campaign to see how things were going - as compared to hearing from the biased media. While there are too many to list, there are a number where Trump beats Hillary but I took the total numbers for each and then divided by the total number of polls to get an average polling number. The margins are really not what everyone seems to think.
Your Thoughts??????
A couple of things that surprise me:
He lost the majority of the polls between August and November yet he won by a margin of 10%
The numbers for the Liberal candidate were so much higher than what is polling now.
I think we all put way too much into the media and all the stuff they predict is going to happen. Clearly, Ronald Reagan won this election as an outside establishment candidate. His timing, while not quite the same as Trump's timing, was still at a very unsettling time in American History.
Yet, if you read the media - they've practically got Donald going home and crying like a little baby over this imaginary made up loss in November.
Right now it is anyone's election to win/to lose.
1980[2]
Month Reagan TRUMP (R) Carter CLINTON(D) % Anderson JOHNSON (I) %
December 1979/January 1980 33% 62%
February/March 31% 60%
33% 58%
34% 40% 21%
April/May 34% 41% 18%
32% 38% 21%
32% 40% 21%
June/July 32% 37.15 39% 41.40 21% 6.89 -7/-4.25
33% 37.87 35% 46.00 24% 7.60 -2/-8.13
37% 38.28 32% 40.81 22% 7.68 +5/-2.53
37% 39.18 34% 41.71 21% 6.73 +3/-2.53
40.48 41.89 6.92 ?/-1.41
August/September 45% 39.20 29% 44.80 14% 7.89 +16/-5.6
38% 39% 13% -1/?
39% 39% 14% -0/?
October/November 40% 44% 9% -4/?
39% 45% 9% -6/?
47% 44% 8% +3/?
Actual result 51% 41% 7% +10/?
Difference between actual result and final poll +4% -3% -1%