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Polling data of reagan 2008 vs. Trump/clinton 2016. Very interesting!!!!

EvaPeron

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I'd like to spend more time on research but for now - see chart below. The percentages on the left under Reagan/Carter/Anderson were recorded polls for that election cycle.
When numbers appear to the right, I took all the shown polling from June/July/August in just the Presidential campaign to see how things were going - as compared to hearing from the biased media. While there are too many to list, there are a number where Trump beats Hillary but I took the total numbers for each and then divided by the total number of polls to get an average polling number. The margins are really not what everyone seems to think.

Your Thoughts??????

A couple of things that surprise me:

Regan only won 4 our of 17 polls/ tied for one and yet he won by a margin of 10%
He lost the majority of the polls between August and November yet he won by a margin of 10%
The numbers for the Liberal candidate were so much higher than what is polling now.

I think we all put way too much into the media and all the stuff they predict is going to happen. Clearly, Ronald Reagan won this election as an outside establishment candidate. His timing, while not quite the same as Trump's timing, was still at a very unsettling time in American History.

Yet, if you read the media - they've practically got Donald going home and crying like a little baby over this imaginary made up loss in November.

Right now it is anyone's election to win/to lose.




1980[2]
Month Reagan TRUMP (R) Carter CLINTON(D) % Anderson JOHNSON (I) %
December 1979/January 1980 33% 62%
February/March 31% 60%
33% 58%
34% 40% 21%
April/May 34% 41% 18%
32% 38% 21%
32% 40% 21%

June/July 32% 37.15 39% 41.40 21% 6.89 -7/-4.25
33% 37.87 35% 46.00 24% 7.60 -2/-8.13
37% 38.28 32% 40.81 22% 7.68 +5/-2.53
37% 39.18 34% 41.71 21% 6.73 +3/-2.53
40.48 41.89 6.92 ?/-1.41

August/September 45% 39.20 29% 44.80 14% 7.89 +16/-5.6
38% 39% 13% -1/?
39% 39% 14% -0/?
October/November 40% 44% 9% -4/?
39% 45% 9% -6/?
47% 44% 8% +3/?


Actual result 51% 41% 7% +10/?

Difference between actual result and final poll +4% -3% -1%
 

EvaPeron

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Month Reagan TRUMP (R) Carter CLINTON(D) Anderson JOHNSON (I)

DEC/JAN 33% 62%
February/March 31% 60%
33% 58%
34% 40% 21%
April/May 34% 41% 18%
32% 38% 21%
32% 40% 21%

June/July 32% 37.15 39% 41.40 21% 6.89 -7/-4.25
33% 37.87 35% 46.00 24% 7.60 -2/-8.13
37% 38.28 32% 40.80 22% 7.68 +5/-2.53
37% 39.18 34% 41.71 21% 6.73 +3/-2.53
40.48 41.89 6.92 ?/-1.41

August/September 45% 39.20 29% 44.80 14% 7.89 +16/-5.6
38% 39% 13% -1/?
39% 39% 14% -0/?
October/November 40% 44% 9% -4/?
39% 45% 9% -6/?
47% 44% 8% +3/?


Actual result 51% 41% 7% +10/?
 
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Thorgasm

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EvaPeron

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Sorry, the first post should have 1980 election - I'm still haunted by the 2008 and it will forever be etched into my brain LOL.

And the lines are not in the columns as I had created once posted - but it should be understandable. The numbers to the right of the percentages for the 1980 candidates are the current numbers for Trump/Hillary/Johnson. Lines where there are no percentages for 1980 candidates are just extra polls done in this election.

The +/- area is shown first for the 1980 results and/ second for the 2016 current results.
 

cpwill

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Your Thoughts??????

I'm thinking it looks like you guys are going to be sad little kids on Christmas morning.



Or angry and demanding that everything was rigged :roll:
 

Harshaw

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As for comparisons to 1980, Hillary's win might resemble the Reagan landslide of that year.

And considering that with pretty much any other candidate, the GOP landslide could have resembled his in 1984, that's an own-goal for the ages.
 
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Visbek

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Your Thoughts??????
You sure you want to know??????

Your charts are illegible. This makes it easier:

trialheats1980-1024x744.png


This looks nothing like the current election, or the last several elections.

Obama vs McCain: Obama was up slightly for most of the election, and the gap widened significantly in the last 2 months.

Obama vs Romney: Obama had a lead most of the election, typically up 4-6 points. The race tightened significantly in the final month.

Clinton vs McCain: Clinton has led the entire election, except for a brief few days right after the Republican convention.

It is also screamingly obvious that this election is nothing like 1980.

There is no way to say how people will vote in November, based on current poll numbers... and you certainly can't figure that out based on 1980 poll numbers.
 

Thorgasm

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Where are the gas lines this election?
 

NeverTrump

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Or angry and demanding that everything was rigged :roll:

This most likely, have you ever seen a Trump supporter cry?? It's not manly, and Trump supporters are manly!!
 

cpwill

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This most likely, have you ever seen a Trump supporter cry?? It's not manly, and Trump supporters are manly!!

:) That's why they're so thin-skinned, and get their emotions hurt so easily. ;)
 

EvaPeron

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You sure you want to know??????

Your charts are illegible. This makes it easier:

trialheats1980-1024x744.png


This looks nothing like the current election, or the last several elections.

Obama vs McCain: Obama was up slightly for most of the election, and the gap widened significantly in the last 2 months.

Obama vs Romney: Obama had a lead most of the election, typically up 4-6 points. The race tightened significantly in the final month.

Clinton vs McCain: Clinton has led the entire election, except for a brief few days right after the Republican convention.

It is also screamingly obvious that this election is nothing like 1980.

There is no way to say how people will vote in November, based on current poll numbers... and you certainly can't figure that out based on 1980 poll numbers.

I know my chart didn't post like it should have, I didn't simply copy and steal from some other site. The point though, is not who will win and who will lose, but instead how the 1980 race by the polls showed a clear win for Carter. Reagan was know to say stuff that the media gasped at. Yet, he won by 10%.

Just interesting and will be more interesting as we progress through the next three months!
 

Visbek

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I know my chart didn't post like it should have, I didn't simply copy and steal from some other site.
So what? You're not doing anything creative here. Data is data, and that chart is actually legible.


The point though, is not who will win and who will lose, but instead how the 1980 race by the polls showed a clear win for Carter.
So what? Poll data from 1980 literally tells you nothing about the current contest.


Reagan was know to say stuff that the media gasped at. Yet, he won by 10%.
Comparing Reagan to Trump is beyond absurd.

Nothing Reagan said during the election compares to the sheer unadulterated nonsense, offensiveness, negativity and downright disrespect of Trump. Plus, Reagan had years of experience in politics, dating back to his time as an actor, and 8 years as governor of California.

You could look at the poll numbers of any modern election, and use it to prove whatever you like. You could look at the last 2 elections and say "whoever consistently holds the lead through July will win." Or you can look at Bush v Gore and say "the race tightens at the end" or "nothing matters until the last month," neither of which is correct.

Or, you could realize that amateurish predictions based on an election that happened 36 years ago is little more than you projecting your own wishes for an electoral outcome onto current polls. So, good luck with that one.
 
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