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Poll: Trump pops to lead over clinton...

reinoe

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While this provides a good morale boost, it's too early to call.
 

cpwill

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Trump 41%, Clinton 39%

Trump 41%, Clinton 39% - Rasmussen Reportsâ„¢

Makes perfect sense.

1. That is not what this poll said.

This is what this poll said:

...Last week, Rasmussen Reports gave voters the option of staying home on Election Day if Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump are the big party nominees, and six percent (6%) said that’s what they intend to do for now. Clinton and Trump were tied with 38% support each; 16% said they would vote for some other candidate, and two percent (2%) were undecided. But Trump edges slightly ahead if the stay-at-home option is removed.

So... IOW, if you artificially restrict behavior, you get a different result, but in an actual scenario where voters have the ability to stay home, Trump and Clinton are tied at 38% each.



2. I am delighted to see that Trump fans now agree that head-to-head polling might have some value. The RCP Average currently has Clinton winning by 7.3%, and a poll that finished after Rasmussen (IBD/TIPP) has Clinton up by 7. :) Out of the last 20 polls taken, Hillary leads every single one except for one (OP) where she tied.
 

JackA

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While this provides a good morale boost, it's too early to call.

Good luck with your morale boost. Rasmussen is the only poll, out of seven, that puts Trump ahead of her, just as it was the only national poll that failed to call the 2012 election for Obama.
 

clownboy

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Get back to us with national polling when the candidates are actually chosen. Then they'll start to matter.
 

reinoe

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Good luck with your morale boost. Rasmussen is the only poll, out of seven, that puts Trump ahead of her, just as it was the only national poll that failed to call the 2012 election for Obama.

Oh wow, methinks someone is either bitter or paranoid.
 

ludin

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Polls like this are useless at this point.
 

shrubnose

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longview

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Unfortunately, I think this election may come down to who hates whom more.
 

clownboy

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Polls like this are useless at this point.

Well, they are useful at showing a trend in improvement. Over the course of the primaries, as they have been doing these national polls, we see Trump steadily improve from a huge deficit against Clinton to where they are tied.
 

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Trump 41%, Clinton 39%

Trump 41%, Clinton 39% - Rasmussen Reportsâ„¢


Makes perfect sense.

Stop taking their polls away from them.

After Trump systematically dismantled the candidates they support it's the only thing they have left.

Don't you remember these same people telling you, back before elections started being held, that Trump was a sideshow, a laughing stock, he was only doing it for attention, that it would never go anywhere, that he would drop out after New Hampshire, After Super Tuesday, after, after, after...

But Trump set his sights on winning Republican Primaries in each succeeding state and he's done pretty well for himself.

His strategy, and his tactics, haven't yet addressed the Democratic challenger because Trump is a guy who sets his sites on the target that in in front of him and currently poses the greatest threat, the 25M target, as they say.

Clinton has been polling really well up to this point because Trump hasn't yet shifted fire on to her and when he does there is no doubt that he is going to systematically dismantle her just as he has the Republicans.

So let them enjoy their stupid polls for a little while longer.

It's really all they've got.
 

cpwill

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Well, they are useful at showing a trend in improvement. Over the course of the primaries, as they have been doing these national polls, we see Trump steadily improve from a huge deficit against Clinton to where they are tied.

Here's the last three months:

H v T.jpg
 

Dittohead not!

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I'd like to see a poll in which this question was asked:

Which candidate would you vote for, one who had a private email server with classified information on it which was never shown to have been illegal and which was never shown to have hacked, or

A candidate who refers to his wife as a "nice piece of ass", who would date his daughter, believes women have to be pretty to be taken seriously, and wants to secure the border by building a wall reminiscent of the DMZ?

Those are your only choices. Pick A or B.
 

JackA

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Oh wow, methinks someone is either bitter or paranoid.

Youthinks that why? The comment was simply that your "morale boost" is based on a poll with a known bias and that is contradicted by every other poll.
 

JackA

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Stop taking their polls away from them.

After Trump systematically dismantled the candidates they support it's the only thing they have left.

Don't you remember these same people telling you, back before elections started being held, that Trump was a sideshow, a laughing stock, he was only doing it for attention, that it would never go anywhere, that he would drop out after New Hampshire, After Super Tuesday, after, after, after...

But Trump set his sights on winning Republican Primaries in each succeeding state and he's done pretty well for himself.

His strategy, and his tactics, haven't yet addressed the Democratic challenger because Trump is a guy who sets his sites on the target that in in front of him and currently poses the greatest threat, the 25M target, as they say.

Clinton has been polling really well up to this point because Trump hasn't yet shifted fire on to her and when he does there is no doubt that he is going to systematically dismantle her just as he has the Republicans.

So let them enjoy their stupid polls for a little while longer.

It's really all they've got.


You're right. Hillary hasn't won a single a Republican primary.

You're wrong about the rest. Hillary's baggage is well known. Benghazi and the emails are tired news. It's Trump's baggage, smelly as it is, that the Democrats have yet to begin to air in a serious way. Wait for those polls.
 
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bubbabgone

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I'd like to see a poll in which this question was asked:

Which candidate would you vote for, one who had a private email server with classified information on it which was never shown to have been illegal and which was never shown to have hacked, or

A candidate who refers to his wife as a "nice piece of ass", who would date his daughter, believes women have to be pretty to be taken seriously, and wants to secure the border by building a wall reminiscent of the DMZ?

Those are your only choices. Pick A or B.


You make a lousy pollster.
Which one is A and which one is B?
 

cpwill

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Stop taking their polls away from them.

After Trump systematically dismantled the candidates they support it's the only thing they have left.

Don't you remember these same people telling you, back before elections started being held, that Trump was a sideshow, a laughing stock, he was only doing it for attention, that it would never go anywhere, that he would drop out after New Hampshire, After Super Tuesday, after, after, after...

But Trump set his sights on winning Republican Primaries in each succeeding state and he's done pretty well for himself.

His strategy, and his tactics, haven't yet addressed the Democratic challenger because Trump is a guy who sets his sites on the target that in in front of him and currently poses the greatest threat, the 25M target, as they say.

Clinton has been polling really well up to this point because Trump hasn't yet shifted fire on to her and when he does there is no doubt that he is going to systematically dismantle her just as he has the Republicans.

:roll: Trump hasn't systematically dismantled anyone. The media fell in love with the controversy and gave him a $2 Billion advantage over his opposition, only bringing them on to ask them about Trump. Then his opponents (idiotically) spent all their time and energy fighting each other (assuming, as you point out, that eventually he would say something so stupid or crass that even his base would refuse to support it), meaning that he faced no headwinds until he was already firmly established in the lead. Those conditions aren't going to exist in the General, where Trump is going to have a billion dollars dumped on him, as he faces a single major competitor willing to focus all her time, energy, attention, and allies in the media to the task of using his own words to tear him apart in ads like this.





Trump fans will think that's ineffective, because it doesn't sway them. But it's not aimed at them, it's aimed at the majority of GE voters who are repelled by that sort of thing.

Trump is already the most disliked candidate to run for POTUS, ever, and that's not likely to get much better.
 

cpwill

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I'd like to see a poll in which this question was asked:

Which candidate would you vote for, one who had a private email server with classified information on it which was never shown to have been illegal and which was never shown to have hacked, or

Just to point out - that is illegal. Hillary simply hasn't (and will not) be charged.
 

Fearandloathing

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Polls like this are useless at this point.


'Fraid not, despite how much people don't want to believe them. Polls are a snapshot in time, and in this case serves to show a trend. The trend is clear and that is the fact Trump has momentum and forging forward despite tons of negative press and organized schemes to stop him.
Compared to Hilary at this point he is in a statistical dead heat, which means that the old saw "he can't beat Hilary" is no longer valid.
 

Orly?

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Trump gaining on the competition and libtards shaking in their booties..
 

Fearandloathing

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I'd like to see a poll in which this question was asked:

Which candidate would you vote for, one who had a private email server with classified information on it which was never shown to have been illegal and which was never shown to have hacked, or

A candidate who refers to his wife as a "nice piece of ass", who would date his daughter, believes women have to be pretty to be taken seriously, and wants to secure the border by building a wall reminiscent of the DMZ?

Those are your only choices. Pick A or B.



Those would be 'push' polls, where you introduce weighted comments to push the vote your way. I don't know whether you've ever been polled, but it's not a clear 'who you gonna vote for', there's a lot of validating questions.

Another way to get the "right" answer is top ask a series of question all leading to a 'yes' value [somewhat, a lot etc] and then slide one in about the candidate. It was once believed that a push poll could turn a vote, but there has never been conclusive proof
 

Lutherf

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:roll: Trump hasn't systematically dismantled anyone. The media fell in love with the controversy and gave him a $2 Billion advantage over his opposition, only bringing them on to ask them about Trump. Then his opponents (idiotically) spent all their time and energy fighting each other (assuming, as you point out, that eventually he would say something so stupid or crass that even his base would refuse to support it), meaning that he faced no headwinds until he was already firmly established in the lead. Those conditions aren't going to exist in the General, where Trump is going to have a billion dollars dumped on him, as he faces a single major competitor willing to focus all her time, energy, attention, and allies in the media to the task of using his own words to tear him apart in ads like this.





Trump fans will think that's ineffective, because it doesn't sway them. But it's not aimed at them, it's aimed at the majority of GE voters who are repelled by that sort of thing.

Trump is already the most disliked candidate to run for POTUS, ever, and that's not likely to get much better.

A Trump v Clinton campaign will be more entertaining than a WWF Battle Royale. Clinton will have stuff on Trump that even he doesn't know about and Trump is totally unopposed to go places no sane human being would ever go. It will be an absolutely brutal campaign.

And that was the good news.

The bad news is that once one of them wins we will have installed a president with a sense of entitlement we have never seen before. Both candidates seem to think of themselves more as royalty than as a custodian of the public trust.
 

Casper

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Me thinks that anyone that thinks either Trump or Hillary is going to be good for the Nation needs their head examined. Worst Election EVER.
 

ludin

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'Fraid not, despite how much people don't want to believe them. Polls are a snapshot in time, and in this case serves to show a trend. The trend is clear and that is the fact Trump has momentum and forging forward despite tons of negative press and organized schemes to stop him.
Compared to Hilary at this point he is in a statistical dead heat, which means that the old saw "he can't beat Hilary" is no longer valid.

he is a dead heat in 1 poll.

over all the polls Clinton has a 6.7% advantage.
while not great it is outside the margin of error.

this could slip then again if trump wins the nomination that could move hordes of liberals to vote.
also don't forget that some states have open primaries in which people voted for trump but won't
vote for him in the general.


these polls are to fluid.
 

ludin

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Me thinks that anyone that thinks either Trump or Hillary is going to be good for the Nation needs their head examined. Worst Election EVER.

trump doesn't have it yet and until the votes are cast at the NRC it is still anyone's game.
the GOP could pull a fast and loose with the rules and trump lose.
 
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