Poll of polls

[Captain Adverse]

[*]My OP citation? I guess we all look alike to you.

Sorry, I was simultaneously typing while watching a movie (Slumdog Millionaire). I meant "the" OP citation.

[*]If I were counting my chickens I wouldn't be reguarly checking polls.

IMO regularly checking polls IS "counting chickens." :shrug:

 

[Jay59]

Okay, so who are you (and this article) trying to convince?
How many times do I have to ask this question? :unsure13:

It does get pretty repetitive. Did you ever get an answer?

If you believe this to be true, then fine.

The Democrats are not acting as if they believe it. They are acting scared.

If you think you are going to change anyone's votes by it, then IMO think again.

I doubt they do. It's a placebo.

First, Trump's support among Republicans is undiminished. Don't count those hold-out's who didn't vote for him in 2016, they are no loss.

Do count those who jumped ship and voted for Gary Johnson.

Second, his support has grown among Black and Hispanic Americans. Poll: Trump approval rises among black, hispanic voters amid convention | TheHill

There is consistent refusal to believe the plain facts about Trum vis a vis minorities.

Third, we already know that many people, especially among Independent's, are afraid to voice their political views, Poll: 62% of Americans Say They Have Political Views They’re Afraid to Share | Cato Institute

Again, widely dismissed as partisan or fabricated.

I have no idea who will win come Nov. 2020, but I will vote for Trump's re-election.

I have a very good idea of who will win. So does the whole country. The polls that show Biden leading also show that a majority of those polled believe Trump will win.

Time will tell if this will be a repeat of 2016...with the MSM and opponent's using every resource to "predict" he will win...only to find he snatches victory again.

What 2016 teaches is that if Trump supporters speak with their ballot, it gets heard. The number of eligible voters is about 220 million. If 40% show up and voter for Trump, he'll get 88 million votes, 20 million more than Hillary in 2016.

Polling indicators of party enthusiasm are strongly biased to the Republicans. This is where it plays. Trump supporters know that all they have to do is vote as a bloc and Trump wins.

 

[poweRob]

Sorry, I was simultaneously typing while watching a movie (Slumdog Millionaire). I meant "the" OP citation.



IMO regularly checking polls IS "counting chickens." :shrug:

If I were counting chickens I wouldn't give a rats ass about polls because I counted my chickens.

 

[Jay59]

I'm out of the prediction business. There are 52 days til election, and we don't know how five things are going to impact it:

1)The debates
2)Trump's vaccine announcement October Surprise.
3)Barr's Ukraine/Durham/Biden/Corruption October Surprise.
4)How the post office and the pandemic are going to affect turnout and vote counting, and
5)How Trump and the Republican Party are going to respond to continued counting of absentee ballots after November 3rd.

52 days in present terms is equivalent to a year.

Will there be debates or will Biden bail?
How can there be an October surprise vaccine? Testing has already been announced.
Barr/Durham seems to be waiting til after the election, though he released a very juicy morsel last month.
The post office is a slim reed to bear that much weight. The pandemic should not discourage anyone from voting in person. It's at least as safe as buying groceries.
The Republicans will not have any problem counting ballots mailed on or before 3 November.

52 days may seem like a year, but it's about the same fraction as people who have recovered from COVID.

Other than Joe Biden, there is not much for you to worry about.

 

[Casca XV]

The economist has a regularly updated aggregation of may polling sources, looks like Trump is f****d:

View attachment 67294934

The reason they pulled Creepy Joe out of the basement to go to different cities and read a teleprompter to empty rooms is because the real polls are a lot different.

77% of Trump supporters are fearful to openly discuss their political opinions. Risk of assaults, people trying to get them fired from jobs and even politically motivated prosecutions are good reasons to be cautious. Even with this blindspot, the internal polls have the DNC ****ting themselves.

 

[Patriotic Voter]

We'll see come November. Still got the debates and all as well.

53 days left!

I have all four debates on my calendar. Thank God I don't have to miss a football game during one of them like I did four years ago.

 

[Patriotic Voter]

As is your right until the country collapses under him.

Like it has not collapsed under him already.

 

[Patriotic Voter]

You're probably right. Knowing that, you might as well stay home on November 3rd.

Knowing he can vote before that date, this is actually a meaningless statement.

 

[Patriotic Voter]

Um, in case you didn't know, 209 electoral votes isn't even close to winning when the other guy has 329. Your own damn post shows that!

Look at the ranges. Joe Biden could win up to 418 electoral votes - way more than 329. That is a lot of wiggle room for Biden to prevent Trump from winning.

 

[Sherlock Holmes]

Ummmmmmmmmmm, in case you didn't know, 209 electoral votes isn't even close to winning when the other guy has 329. Your own damn post shows that!

I'm hard pressed to see anything favorable to Trump in these charts, you'll need to explain yourself better.

 

[Sherlock Holmes]

The reason they pulled Creepy Joe out of the basement to go to different cities and read a teleprompter to empty rooms is because the real polls are a lot different.

77% of Trump supporters are fearful to openly discuss their political opinions. Risk of assaults, people trying to get them fired from jobs and even politically motivated prosecutions are good reasons to be cautious. Even with this blindspot, the internal polls have the DNC ****ting themselves.

BS. I See many more vehicles displaying Trump signs than I do Biden signs, tell me what is your data to support the claim "77% of Trump supporters are fearful to openly discuss their political opinions"? if they are too scared to reveal their opinions how do you get the 77% number?

"There are millions of people too scared to discuss this issue".

"How do you know?"

"I discussed it with them".

:roll:

 

[Aletheia]

Ummmmmmmmmmm, in case you didn't know, 209 electoral votes isn't even close to winning when the other guy has 329. Your own damn post shows that!

I'm hard pressed to see anything favorable to Trump in these charts, you'll need to explain yourself better.

I'm guessing he's looking at the ranges and projecting that Trump will land on the extreme high end of the electoral vote range, and Biden will land on the extreme low end -- a very unlikely outcome. He doesn't seem to understand expectation, though.

 

[ReubenSherr]

Look at the ranges. Joe Biden could win up to 418 electoral votes - way more than 329. That is a lot of wiggle room for Biden to prevent Trump from winning.

Same conversation we had in September four years ago.

The most telling data is the Monmouth poll, which has Biden up by 7, but when voters were asked who they thought would win in November, it was Trump by a margin of 5.

Even Biden supporters don’t trust the polls when Trump voters are involved.

 

[tosca1]

The economist has a regularly updated aggregation of may polling sources, looks like Trump is f****d:

View attachment 67294934

Who sez? You mean the LIBERAL ECONOMIST?



The Economist at 175 - A manifesto for renewing liberalism | Leaders | The Economist

 

[Aletheia]

Who sez? You mean the LIBERAL ECONOMIST?



The Economist at 175 - A manifesto for renewing liberalism | Leaders | The Economist

There's RCP if you need more conformation from another ensemble aggregate. Gap lead looks pretty consistent to me.

 

[ReubenSherr]

There's RCP if you need more conformation from another ensemble aggregate. Gap lead looks pretty consistent to me.

Look at the battleground states.

I think the deep blue states have gotten solid ocean blue, which is where Biden is getting a lot of that margin from.

 

[Aunt Antifa]

This is an important point.

Trump was not a candidate in 2018, the polling was relatively accurate, just like it had been before 2016.

Trump voters throw off the polls. Especially rural Trump voters, who are underrepresented in many polls.

Did you see the Monmouth poll just out where Biden won by 7 points, yet 48% thought Trump will win the election, compared to 43% who thought Biden will win?

That’s a whole lot of people who don’t believe the polls, and not just Republicans.

The polling was more accurate in 2018 because they adjusted for the errors in 2016. Trump voters showed up in droves in 2018, turnout wasn’t the issue for the GOP. Blue Wave drowned you out.

Honestly though I have no idea why you guys keep trying to make “secret Trump voter” models when he couldn’t win the pop 4 years ago and barely won 3 swing states that he’s underwater in now.

If you’re pining hopes on some secret surge that hasn’t been there in each of the last two elections, okay?

 

[Kreton]

The economist has a regularly updated aggregation of may polling sources, looks like Trump is f****d:

View attachment 67294934

16% is still way too high of a chance.

 

[ReubenSherr]

The polling was more accurate in 2018 because they adjusted for the errors in 2016. Trump voters showed up in droves in 2018, turnout wasn’t the issue for the GOP.

Completely inaccurate.

Trump was not a candidate in 2018, so there was no issue with underpolling rural voters, or working class voters who didn’t have the spare time to return lengthy internet questionnaires.

Trump is an anti-establishment candidate. How many anti-establishment Republican candidates were there in 2018 to throw off the polls?

Which is why, in the Monmouth poll, voters think Trump will win, by a 5 point margin.

 

[Aunt Antifa]

Completely inaccurate.

Trump was not a candidate in 2018, so there was no issue with underpolling rural voters, or working class voters who didn’t have the spare time to return lengthy internet questionnaires.

Which is why, in the Monmouth poll, voters think Trump will win, by a 5 point margin.

You are projecting made up things. Trump has no effect on turnout of the GOP base anymore because he’s maxed it out. You need independents and some crossovers, and that’s just to repeat the margins from 2016.

Trump ain’t gettin there.

 

[ReubenSherr]

You are projecting made up things. Trump has no effect on turnout of the GOP base anymore because he’s maxed it out. You need independents and some crossovers, and that’s just to repeat the margins from 2016.

Trump ain’t gettin there.

You’re not understanding the anti-establishment aspect of Trump. His core specifically detests bureaucratic Washington pollsters.

 

[Aunt Antifa]

You’re not understanding the anti-establishment aspect of Trump. His core specifically detests bureaucratic Washington pollsters.

I don’t care how strongly you feel, there is no data either via poling or *votes* showing any special sleeper cell of Trump voters waiting to be activated.

 

[MTAtech]

Look at the battleground states.

I think the deep blue states have gotten solid ocean blue, which is where Biden is getting a lot of that margin from.

You say that like it's a bad thing. Biden has certain states locked up like, NY, CA, OR and WA but those aren't battle ground states. Biden is also leading in MI, WI, and PA -- the three states that Trump won by razor thin margins to get him his electoral college win. Biden is also slightly more than even in FL and TX is a dead heat, where he won by 9pts in 2016. Moreover, those poll numbers are before Woodward came out with his damning expose of Trump and Corona. He's not going to gain voters from that. He only has downward momentum.

 

[ReubenSherr]

You say that like it's a bad thing. Biden has certain states locked up like, NY, CA, OR and WA but those aren't battle ground states. Biden is also leading in MI, WI, and PA -- the three states that Trump won by razor thin margins to get him his electoral college win. Biden is also slightly more than even in FL and TX is a dead heat, where he won by 9pts in 2016. Moreover, those poll numbers are before Woodward came out with his damning expose of Trump and Corona. He's not going to gain voters from that. He only has downward momentum.

It is a bad thing. If you live in the Northeast, and you express support for Trump, you get shot.

The momentum is clearly in Trump’s favor, especially in the battleground states.

Biden has LOST ground in a Florida, Nevada, Texas, and Pennsylvania. Cook even moved Florida and Nevada away from the lean Biden category.

 

[MTAtech]

It is a bad thing. If you live in the Northeast, and you express support for Trump, you get shot.

The momentum is clearly in Trump’s favor, especially in the battleground states.

Biden has LOST ground in a Florida, Nevada, Texas, and Pennsylvania. Cook even moved Florida and Nevada away from the lean Biden category.

I haven't heard of anyone getting shot for supporting Trump. Perhaps you can cite an article.

Yeah, I see how Biden has lost ground...

Graphs from 538.

Pennsylvania


Nevada


Florida