Poll: Number of Americans identifying as Democrat the highest since 2012

[Rogue Valley]

Poll: Number of Americans identifying as Democrat the highest since 2012

4/7/21
More American adults identify as Democrat than Republican, according to a Gallup poll published on Wednesday. "The nine-percentage-point Democratic advantage is the largest Gallup has measured since the fourth quarter of 2012," when former President Obama was re-elected, per a Gallup statement. 49% of the 3,960 people aged 18 and older surveyed from January-March identified with the Democratic Party or said they're independents who lean toward the Democratic Party. 40% identified as Republicans or Republican leaners. 11% said they're independents with no partisan leanings. Gallup noted in its statement that the latest figures were measured as COVID-19 deaths and infections declined from their January peak and as President Biden was inaugurated "despite rioters' attempts on Jan. 6 to disrupt the certification of his victory in the 2020 election." Democrats have enjoyed double-digit advantages "throughout most of 2006 through early 2009" — a period encompassing the end of former President George W. Bush's administration and Obama's first election win. "The party also had double-digit advantages around the time of Bill Clinton's election as president in late 1992 and early 1993," Gallup noted.

Who would willingly want to identify with the party of insurrectionist Donald Trump, child sex trafficker Matt Gaetz, and QAnon conspiricist Marjorie Taylor Greene?

 

[OrphanSlug]

Cherry picked data, "lean" does not equate to affiliation.

By the same organization polling a certain way going back a very long way (hence better trending) tells us the biggest winner so far are those who identify as Independent not wanting a damn thing to do with Republicans *or* Democrats.

The only silver lining here is Democrats are not suffering to the extent that Republicans are.

While the "gap" is the largest the key finding from the report is the below...

"However, the percentages identifying as independent in 2020 and thus far in 2021 have been unusually high compared with prior presidential election and odd-numbered years. Thus, the current level of independent identification ranks among the highest Gallup has measured in any quarter since 1988, with the high being 46% in the fourth quarter of 2013.

Increased independent identification has mostly come at the expense of the Republican Party, with the 25% of U.S. adults currently identifying as Republicans down from 29% in the fourth quarter. Republican Party identification has not been lower since early 2018 and is just a few points above the low of 22% in the Gallup telephone polling era, registered in the fourth quarter of 2013. During that quarter, GOP favorability sank to a record low during a federal government shutdown over disputes about the Affordable Care Act.

Democratic Party identification is also down, by one point from the fourth quarter, to 30%. It has hovered around that level for most of the past eight years."

Sources:

Party Affiliation

In politics, as of today, do you consider yourself a Republican, a Democrat, or an Independent? (Asked of independents: As of today, do you lean more to the Democratic Party or the Republican Party?)

news.gallup.com

Quarterly Gap in Party Affiliation Largest Since 2012

The nine-percentage-point Democratic advantage in party identification and leaning in the first quarter of 2021 is the largest since 2012.

news.gallup.com

 

[Slartibartfast]

Cherry picked data, "lean" does not equate to affiliation.

By the same organization polling a certain way going back a very long way (hence better trending) tells us the biggest winner so far are those who identify as Independent not wanting a damn thing to do with Republicans *or* Democrats.

The only silver lining here is Democrats are not suffering to the extent that Republicans are.

While the "gap" is the largest the key finding from the report is the below...

"However, the percentages identifying as independent in 2020 and thus far in 2021 have been unusually high compared with prior presidential election and odd-numbered years. Thus, the current level of independent identification ranks among the highest Gallup has measured in any quarter since 1988, with the high being 46% in the fourth quarter of 2013.

Increased independent identification has mostly come at the expense of the Republican Party, with the 25% of U.S. adults currently identifying as Republicans down from 29% in the fourth quarter. Republican Party identification has not been lower since early 2018 and is just a few points above the low of 22% in the Gallup telephone polling era, registered in the fourth quarter of 2013. During that quarter, GOP favorability sank to a record low during a federal government shutdown over disputes about the Affordable Care Act.

Democratic Party identification is also down, by one point from the fourth quarter, to 30%. It has hovered around that level for most of the past eight years."

Sources:

Party Affiliation

In politics, as of today, do you consider yourself a Republican, a Democrat, or an Independent? (Asked of independents: As of today, do you lean more to the Democratic Party or the Republican Party?)

news.gallup.com

Quarterly Gap in Party Affiliation Largest Since 2012

The nine-percentage-point Democratic advantage in party identification and leaning in the first quarter of 2021 is the largest since 2012.

news.gallup.com

you realize that one point over 8 years is basically noise when it comes to statistics, right?

 

[OrphanSlug]

you realize that one point over 8 years is basically noise when it comes to statistics, right?

That cuts both ways chief.

 

[Slartibartfast]

That cuts both ways chief.

so one point up would be statistical noise too, correct

 

[swing_voter]

Thanks trump.



.

 

[OrphanSlug]

so one point up would be statistical noise too, correct

But what is consistent going back as far as those stats go? (I'll give you a hit, neither Republicans or Democrats are winning.)

 

[Slartibartfast]

But what is consistent going back as far as those stats go? (I'll give you a hit, neither Republicans or Democrats are winning.)

independents by and large choose one of the two major parties and there is an increasing trend of liberals gaining on the popular vote (which is why you are seeing the current attempts at disenfranchisement). That is why including lean is important because it helps map behavior.

 

[OrphanSlug]

independents by and large choose one of the two major parties and there is an increasing trend of liberals gaining on the popular vote (which is why you are seeing the current attempts at disenfranchisement). That is why including lean is important because it helps map behavior.

So the question is with your " you realize that one point over 8 years is basically noise when it comes to statistics, right" bit, is the underline whys.

And it would be presumptuous to assume it is all roses and sunshine views of policy alone, we cannot discount the political climate nor the previous president.

If follows you have a problem with that blanket statement on statistical noise.

 

[duckgirl]

If the democrats gain seats in the senate and the house in next years election then i'll believe this, but chances are the republicans will take control of both sides of congress next fall.

 

[Rogue Valley]

If the democrats gain seats in the senate and the house in next years election then i'll believe this, but chances are the republicans will take control of both sides of congress next fall.

Which is why they are busy passing new Jim Crow laws and breaking out their brand new gerrymandering Crayola's.

 

[Slartibartfast]

So the question is with your " you realize that one point over 8 years is basically noise when it comes to statistics, right" bit, is the underline whys.

And it would be presumptuous to assume it is all roses and sunshine views of policy alone, we cannot discount the political climate nor the previous president.

If follows you have a problem with that blanket statement on statistical noise.

I have no problem with the blanket statement about statistical noise as I am the one who made the blanket statement. Your assertion makes no sense in that context.

in terms of climate, if the GOP wants to do better, then they are going to have to come back to mainstream society.

 

[The Old Soul]

If the democrats gain seats in the senate and the house in next years election then i'll believe this, but chances are the republicans will take control of both sides of congress next fall.

Red will probably dominate next cycle thanks to bogus new voting 'enhancements' and the endless flip-flop from one party to the other, because the party in control (matters not which one) does little but block the other after erasing anything and everything the previous administration put in place. Thank the 'party over politics' model that is now entrenched in our country, which basically eliminates bipartisanship, and is reinforced by die-hard straight-line-voting citizens.

If either party were actually constructive and legislated for the country instead of just themselves and their financial masters, we might see one or the other chosen by more than the thinnest of margins. Instead, voters are forced to choose between the lesser of two evils instead of the greater of two goods.

 

[duckgirl]

Red will probably dominate next cycle thanks to bogus new voting 'enhancements' and the endless flip-flop from one party to the other, because the party in control (matters not which one) does little but block the other after erasing anything and everything the previous administration put in place. Thank the 'party over politics' model that is now entrenched in our country, which basically eliminates bipartisanship, and is reinforced by die-hard straight-line-voting citizens.

If either party were actually constructive and legislated for the country instead of just themselves and their financial masters, we might see one or the other chosen by more than the thinnest of margins. Instead, voters are forced to choose between the lesser of two evils instead of the greater of two goods.

I dont disagree with a lot of what you said