Poll: Iraqis back attacks on US troops (1 Viewer)

[LeftyHenry]

WASHINGTON - About six in 10 Iraqis say they approve of attacks on U.S.-led forces, and slightly more than that want their government to ask U.S. troops to leave within a year, a poll finds.

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The Iraqis also have negative views of Osama bin Laden, according to the early September poll of 1,150.

The poll, done for University of Maryland's Program on International Policy Attitudes, found:

_Almost four in five Iraqis say the U.S. military force in Iraq provokes more violence than it prevents.

_About 61 percent approved of the attacks — up from 47 percent in January. A solid majority of Shiite and Sunni Arabs approved of the attacks, according to the poll. The increase came mostly among Shiite Iraqis.

_An overwhelmingly negative opinion of terror chief bin Laden and more than half, 57 percent, disapproving of Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

_Three-fourths say they think the U.S. plans to keep military bases in Iraq permanently.

_A majority of Iraqis, 72 percent, say they think Iraq will be one state five years from now. Shiite Iraqis were most likely to feel that way, though a majority of Sunnis and Kurds also believed that would be the case.

The PIPA poll, which included an oversample of 150 Sunni Iraqis, has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

Full Article Here

 

[The Philosopher]

"They will greet us with roses on the streets"...

Oh Dick Cheney...when will you ever learn?

 

[faithful_servant]

C'mon try using objective, non-partisan sources fo ryour information. PIPA's funded by a "Who's Who" of liberal foundations:

Rockefeller Foundation
Rockefeller Brothers Fund
Tides Foundation
Ford Foundation
German Marshall Fund of the United States
Compton Foundation
Carnegie Corporation
Benton Foundation
Ben and Jerry's Foundation
Americans Talk Issues Foundation
Circle Foundation

Please try a little harder next time.

 

[ProudAmerican]

if you took a poll in south central LA right after the Rodney King verdict.....I bet you would have found that residents there supported attacks on Cops.

while polls in outlying areas would have been much different.

I wonder if this poll was conducted inside Baghdad. probably so.

a more legitimate poll would include the outlying areas of Iraq that are now prospering due to Americas soldiers and their efforts.

 

[LeftyHenry]

if you took a poll in south central LA right after the Rodney King verdict.....I bet you would have found that residents there supported attacks on Cops.

Umm if you took a poll their now you'd find pretty much the same results, and rightly so/

while polls in outlying areas would have been much different.

yeah and this is not just Baghdad. It takes everything into account. It's a professional polling agency.

a more legitimate poll would include the outlying areas of Iraq that are now prospering due to Americas soldiers and their efforts.

have you been to Iraq? Do you consider 3rd world ghettos prosperous?

 

[ProudAmerican]

yeah and this is not just Baghdad. It takes everything into account. It's a professional polling agency.

proof? did I miss where it said that in the poll?

and im being dead serious. give me the proof of this, and I will conceded the argument because that is exactly what I am basing my argument on.

have you been to Iraq? Do you consider 3rd world ghettos prosperous?

I can only go by what the best 1st hand source I can imagine said. those are the Iraqi presidents words, not mine.

I read it in newsweek magazing this morning while waiting in the Drs office.
not a direct quote of course, but basically what he said.

he wants us there......he sees great progress being made in outlying areas.

also, I would imagine that comparitavely, to what they did have under Saddam, things are QUITE prosperous.
Compared to lower Manhattan, not so much.

 

[Kelzie]

Umm if you took a poll their now you'd find pretty much the same results, and rightly so/

yeah and this is not just Baghdad. It takes everything into account. It's a professional polling agency.

have you been to Iraq? Do you consider 3rd world ghettos prosperous?

Ah ha ha. So cute. Let me offer you a little insight into what this "professional" polling agency did. Notice this part?

The PIPA poll, which included an oversample of 150 Sunni Iraqis

Now that's odd. The country is 2/3 Shi'ite, but this polling company manages to poll an excess of Sunni. The ones who, coincidently, hate Americans and are fueling the insurgency. Wonder if this could skew the results at all? Nah, they're professionals, right?

 

[Volker]

Ah ha ha. So cute. Let me offer you a little insight into what this "professional" polling agency did. Notice this part?

The PIPA poll, which included an oversample of 150 Sunni Iraqis

Now that's odd. The country is 2/3 Shi'ite, but this polling company manages to poll an excess of Sunni. The ones who, coincidently, hate Americans and are fueling the insurgency. Wonder if this could skew the results at all? Nah, they're professionals, right?

It's included like being part of it, Shi'ites included, Sunnis included and Kurds included.

_A majority of Iraqis, 72 percent, say they think Iraq will be one state five years from now. Shiite Iraqis were most likely to feel that way, though a majority of Sunnis and Kurds also believed that would be the case.

The PIPA poll, which included an oversample of 150 Sunni Iraqis, has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

 

[Kelzie]

It's included like being part of it, Shi'ites included, Sunnis included and Kurds included.

Oh...kay...You're not getting this. Let me try an example. Let's say you want to find out how many people in a country played with dolls as a child, but you end up asking 75 women and 25 men. You're results are going to say that 75% of the country (or more for those men in touch with their feminine side) played with dolls. In statistics, this is called a sampling error. Your sample is not representive of your population. Now this same thing happened with this poll in Iraq. Despite the fact that Shi'ites make up a large majority of the population, more Sunnis were polled. The Shi'ites are (somewhat) supportive of Americans, while Sunnis hate them. This bias is going to pull the value away from the true mean and distort the value. This poll is garbage and I say that about very few polls.

 

[Navy Pride]

"They will greet us with roses on the streets"...

Oh Dick Cheney...when will you ever learn?

They actually did greet us as heroes..

 

[faithful_servant]

Ah ha ha. So cute. Let me offer you a little insight into what this "professional" polling agency did. Notice this part?

The PIPA poll, which included an oversample of 150 Sunni Iraqis

Now that's odd. The country is 2/3 Shi'ite, but this polling company manages to poll an excess of Sunni. The ones who, coincidently, hate Americans and are fueling the insurgency. Wonder if this could skew the results at all? Nah, they're professionals, right?

Nice catch, Kelzie.

 

[Kelzie]

Nice catch, Kelzie.

I can't take credit for it. Gunny pointed it out to me yesterday. :lol:

 

[Volker]

Oh...kay...You're not getting this. Let me try an example. Let's say you want to find out how many people in a country played with dolls as a child, but you end up asking 75 women and 25 men. You're results are going to say that 75% of the country (or more for those men in touch with their feminine side) played with dolls. In statistics, this is called a sampling error. Your sample is not representive of your population. Now this same thing happened with this poll in Iraq. Despite the fact that Shi'ites make up a large majority of the population, more Sunnis were polled. The Shi'ites are (somewhat) supportive of Americans, while Sunnis hate them. This bias is going to pull the value away from the true mean and distort the value. This poll is garbage and I say that about very few polls.

This poll is representative for Iraq with plus and minus 3 % as it's written there. This makes sense in statistics. Obviously the group consisted of about 450 people with 150 of them being Sunni. With having 26 million inhabitants in Iraq, this group size would be international standard. You can have a poll representative poll for Germany with about 1000 people and we are 80 millions. This poll sounds absolutely ok for me.

 

[Volker]

Nice try, Kelzie.

 

[Kelzie]

This poll is representative for Iraq with plus and minus 3 % as it's written there. This makes sense in statistics. Obviously the group consisted of about 450 people with 150 of them being Sunni. With having 26 million inhabitants in Iraq, this group size would be international standard. You can have a poll representative poll for Germany with about 1000 people and we are 80 millions. This poll sounds absolutely ok for me.

No. There was a SURPLUS of 150 Sunnis. That's what is meant by "oversample." Take a statistics class, it will help you understand this immensely. I'd suggest Quantitative Research Methods. An oversample is actually worse than just accidental sampling error. It is done on purpose to give a population a larger representation in a sample. Whatever makes the poll more interesting I guess.

 

[Volker]

No. There was a SURPLUS of 150 Sunnis. That's what is meant by "oversample."

Now I understand, it did not know the word oversample.

Take a statistics class, it will help you understand this immensely. I'd suggest Quantitative Research Methods.

Thank you very much for your kind advice, I took two semesters of Quantitative Research Methods and passed the examination as part of my studies.

An oversample is actually worse than just accidental sampling error. It is done on purpose to give a population a larger representation in a sample. Whatever makes the poll more interesting I guess.

And it's still plus and minus 3 % deviation.

 

[akyron]

Whatever makes the poll more interesting I guess.

Or blatantly generate whatever answer you are seeking.

 

[Kelzie]

Now I understand, it did not know the word oversample.

Thank you very much for your kind advice, I took two semesters of Quantitative Research Methods and passed the examination as part of my studies.

And it's still plus and minus 3 % deviation.

That it is. From the sample population, which was not representative of the population as a whole. It would be +/- 3% of the actual population if the population had 1/3 more Sunnis. How long ago were your Quantitative Research Method classes?

 

[Volker]

That it is. From the sample population, which was not representative of the population as a whole. It would be +/- 3% of the actual population if the population had 1/3 more Sunnis.

This is not, what is written there.

How long ago were your Quantitative Research Method classes?

This was about 14 years ago.

 

[Kelzie]

This is not, what is written there.

Yes it is, if you understand the terminology.

This was about 14 years ago.

Huh.

 

[Volker]

Yes it is, if you understand the terminology.

Actually, I try to do so, but I can't find it.

Oversample: A sampling procedure designed to give a demographic or geographic population a larger proportion of representation in the sample than the population's proportion of representation in the overall population. Oversamples are often used to study the attitudes or behavior of groups that make up a small proportion of the total population. For instance, one might oversample African Americans for a study on discrimination, or people ages 65 and over for a study about Medicare.

http://www.publicopinionpros.com/glossary/2004/nov/glossary.htm

I can't find the words bias or garbage poll in this definition.

Huh.

 

[Kelzie]

Actually, I try to do so, but I can't find it.


http://www.publicopinionpros.com/glossary/2004/nov/glossary.htm

I can't find the words bias or garbage poll in this definition.

It's right here:

"Oversamples are often used to study the attitudes or behavior of groups that make up a small proportion of the total population."

This poll found the attitude of Sunnis through oversampling and attempted to pass it off as the attitude of Iraq as a whole. Very dishonest.

 

[faithful_servant]

That it is. From the sample population, which was not representative of the population as a whole. It would be +/- 3% of the actual population if the population had 1/3 more Sunnis. How long ago were your Quantitative Research Method classes?

Kelzie, I doubt that V has taken any stats classes. He's missed the boat on two very obvious issues - the definition of over-sampling and the issue of sample size. I've never taken any stats classes and I understand both of these issues and how they apply to the statistics being presented here. A sample of 450 people with an oversampling of 150 is a poll that is utterly worthless. With 33.3% of your sample basically invalid, the poll is so flawed that anyone with any background in stats would immediately laugh it off. The thing is that this was done by a supposedly objective and professional organization. There's no way that they could not know that the results were flawed and yet they still chose to publicize them. Makes you wonder about just how objective or professional they are....

 

[Kandahar]

To those of you complaining about the poll's methodology and oversampling of Sunnis: After looking at it again, you may be right. Since I started a similar thread in Breaking News, I offer my apologies.

However, looking at the breakdown BY GROUP, we are still faced with a very dire poll:
http://www.worldpublicopinion.org/pipa/articles/home_page/250.php?nid=&id=&pnt=250&lb=hmpg1

APPROVAL OF ATTACKS ON AMERICAN TROOPS:
Shia: 62%
Sunni (Arab): 92%
(Sunni) Kurd: 15%

So even factoring out the oversampling of Sunni Arabs, it's not exactly a rosy picture.

 

[Captain America]

I thought they were supposed to attack us with flowers.