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Poll: 62 percent say Trump isn't telling the truth in Russia probe

markjs

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Poll: 62 percent say Trump isn't telling the truth in Russia probe

More Americans want Democrats — not Trump — in charge of setting policy, a new national NBC News/WSJ poll finds.

WASHINGTON — Six in 10 Americans say President Donald Trump has been untruthful about the investigation into Russia’s interference in the 2016 presidential campaign, while half of the country says the investigation has given them doubts about Trump’s presidency, according to a new national NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll.

The survey, conducted a month after the results of November’s midterm elections, also finds more Americans want congressional Democrats — rather than Trump or congressional Republicans — to take the lead role in setting policy for the country.

And just 10 percent of respondents say that the president has gotten the message for a change in direction from the midterms — when the GOP lost control of the U.S. House of Representatives but kept its majority in the U.S. Senate — and that he’s making the necessary adjustments....

“The dam has not burst on Donald Trump,” said Democratic pollster Peter Hart, whose firm conducted this survey with Republican pollster Bill McInturff. “But this survey suggests all the structural cracks [that exist] in the dam.”

The NBC/WSJ poll — conducted Dec. 9-12 — comes after new developments in the Russia probe and other investigations involving the president, including evidence and allegations that:

Trump and his team were offered “synergy” with the Russian government.
Trump directed an illegal campaign-finance scheme to make payments covering up two alleged affairs in the last days of the 2016 campaign.
Former Trump campaign chair Paul Manafort continued to communicate with Trump administration officials well after his indictment.
Former Trump lawyer/fixer Michael Cohen was sentenced to prison for three years.
In a recent interview with Fox News, Trump denied directing Cohen to make the payments covering up the alleged affairs.

"I never directed him to do anything wrong," Trump said. "Whatever he did he did on his own. He's a lawyer. A lawyer who represents a client is supposed to do the right thing that's why you pay them a lot of money."

Asked in the poll if Trump has been honest and truthful when it comes to the investigation into Russian interference in the 2016 campaign and related matters, 62 percent of all adults say they disagree. That includes 94 percent of Democrats, 64 percent of independents and a quarter (24 percent) of Republicans.

q_trump_has_been_honest_trustworthy_re_mueller_pro  be_somewhat_strongly_agree_somewhat_strongly_disag  ree_chartbuilder_b9113d4f18519c4b1ef1ccf7f891fc6d.  fit-560w.png


By contrast, 34 percent believe Trump has been honest and truthful about the investigation, including 70 percent of Republicans, 29 percent of independents and just 5 percent of Democrats.

These numbers are a slight shift from August, when 38 percent of registered voters agreed Trump has been honest and truthful about the investigation, and 56 percent disagreed.

“Last week’s Cohen and Manafort news clearly hurt the president — no dramatic movement to be sure, but incremental erosion in President Trump’s credibility,” said Democrat pollster Fred Yang of Hart Research Associates.

Also in the poll, a combined 50 percent of Americans say the Russia investigation — led by special counsel Robert Mueller — has given them “major,” “fairly major” or “just some” doubts about Trump’s presidency, versus 44 percent who say it hasn’t given them more doubts.

McInturff, the GOP pollster, says that the 44 percent without doubts is a “powerful reminder about the status of his political base.”

What’s more, a plurality of respondents — 46 percent — say the convictions and guilty pleas of members of Trump’s 2016 campaign suggest potential wrongdoing by the president, compared with 23 percent who believe the wrongdoing is limited only to those individuals; 28 percent don’t know enough to say.

q_wrongdoing_by_just_some_individuals_or_trump_him  self_just_individuals_by_donald_trump_not_sure_cha  rtbuilder_1_46b8cb3130281851657b08c96db4f861.fit-560w.png


And asked if Mueller’s investigation should continue, 45 percent believe it should, while 34 percent think it should come to an end — essentially unchanged from August’s NBC/WSJ poll....

You have to be pretty willfully bllind to think he acts like he's innocent.:roll:
 

Mycroft

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haymarket

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So 34% - or one out of every three Americans - is either delusional or a deplorable and is probably the Trumpkin hardcore.
 

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Hawkeye10

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The question "has Trump has been honest and truthful when it comes to the investigation into Russian interference in the 2016 campaign and related matters" is so fuzzy wuzzy that it is useless....Probably by design.
 

Mycroft

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Do you know why they have that spread of party affiliation in their polls?

No, but I suspect they think the public is stupid enough to believe their bogus poll. After all, the public...at least the liberal side of it...believed those bogus polls back in 2016. It's certainly not a representative sample of the nation.
 

TU Curmudgeon

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See here: http://media1.s-nbcnews.com/i/today/z_creative/181489 NBCWSJ December Poll (12-16-18 Release).pdf

Sampling by party affiliation.

Dem - 41%
Rep - 34%
Ind - 15%

Latest nationwide party affiliation per Gallup. https://news.gallup.com/poll/15370/party-affiliation.aspx

Dem - 31%
Rep - 28%
Ind - 39%


POLL REJECTED!!

We've had a discussion about "normalization" before, but it obviously hasn't sunk in.

Given the data above,


  1. each Republican response would be weighted at 1.214
  2. each Democrat response would be weighted at 0.756; and
  3. each Independent responses would be weighted at 2.600

in order to produce the percentages on each question.

I don't mind ignorance (we all start out that way) but I do find continuous and determined refusal to even consider learning problematic.

Obviously you don't.
 

Mycroft

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We've had a discussion about "normalization" before, but it obviously hasn't sunk in.

Given the data above,


  1. the Republican responses would be weighted at 1.214
  2. the Democrat responses would be weighted at 0.756; and
  3. the Independent responses would be weighted at


  1. You have no idea if they actually did any such weighting.
 

OpportunityCost

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We've had a discussion about "normalization" before, but it obviously hasn't sunk in.

Given the data above,


  1. each Republican response would be weighted at 1.214
  2. each Democrat response would be weighted at 0.756; and
  3. each Independent responses would be weighted at 2.600

in order to produce the percentages on each question.

I don't mind ignorance (we all start out that way) but I do find continuous and determined refusal to even consider learning problematic.

Obviously you don't.

"Would"....were they, though?
 

TU Curmudgeon

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So 34% - or one out of every three Americans - is either delusional or a deplorable and is probably the Trumpkin hardcore.

Actually, once you account for "normalization" that would be around 41.276% and that is well within Mr. Trump's "traditional" 39.5 (+/-3.5)% approval rating window.
 

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No, but I suspect they think the public is stupid enough to believe their bogus poll. After all, the public...at least the liberal side of it...believed those bogus polls back in 2016. It's certainly not a representative sample of the nation.

The final poll of polls was dead on accurate about 2016. It predicted the order of finish in the popular vote and hit the right margin by half of one point. And that is what polls measure - voter support for a candidate.

Why is this not a representative sample of the nation?
 

TU Curmudgeon

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Do you know why they have that spread of party affiliation in their polls?

Um - because that's what the people who agreed to be polled said their party affiliation was?

You do know that almost all polls keep sampling until they have a number of responses that enables them to reach statistically reliable results for the poll AND THEN STOP, don't you?
 

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Actually, once you account for "normalization" that would be around 41.276% and that is well within Mr. Trump's "traditional" 39.5 (+/-3.5)% approval rating window.

I was referring to the rock bottom Trump support.
 

Jetboogieman

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See here: http://media1.s-nbcnews.com/i/today/z_creative/181489 NBCWSJ December Poll (12-16-18 Release).pdf

Sampling by party affiliation.

Dem - 41%
Rep - 34%
Ind - 15%

Latest nationwide party affiliation per Gallup. https://news.gallup.com/poll/15370/party-affiliation.aspx

Dem - 31%
Rep - 28%
Ind - 39%


POLL REJECTED!!

You reject everything and anything that is negative about Trump.

Because that’s what he has conditioned you to do.

Your thoughts on this are worthless.
 

TU Curmudgeon

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The question "has Trump has been honest and truthful when it comes to the investigation into Russian interference in the 2016 campaign and related matters" is so fuzzy wuzzy that it is useless....Probably by design.

Since that was NOT the question, what conclusion should one draw from the fact that you said it was?

The actual question was


Please tell me whether you strongly agree, somewhat agree, somewhat disagree, or strongly disagree with
the following statement:

Donald Trump has been honest and truthful when it comes to the investigation into Russian interference with
the 2016 presidential election and related matters.

but you knew that because you actually went and read the poll - didn't you?

And, since you actually went and read the poll so that you knew what the actual question was, which conclusion do you think a person who knew that would come to about your question:

  1. ___ it was deliberately false
  2. ___ it wasn't deliberately false, but was asked because the asker was functionally illiterate
  3. ___ the asker really didn't care if the question was false or not but just liked to do things without thinking
  4. ___ the asker really didn't care if the question was false but thought that if they could convince people of something that was false they would advance their own agenda;
  5. ___ the fact that the actual poll question differed from the question purported to have been asked is totally irrelevant because there is a higher truth than reality and Donald Trump is It Name;
  6. ___ a combination of two or more of the above; or
  7. ___ something else (DETAILS MUST BE PROVIDED)?
 

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The final poll of polls was dead on accurate about 2016. It predicted the order of finish in the popular vote and hit the right margin by half of one point. And that is what polls measure - voter support for a candidate.

Why is this not a representative sample of the nation?

The months BEFORE the election, when the bogus polls were presented, did their job. They influenced the prospective voters. Once they had voted or were about to vote, pollsters reduced the bogus nature of their polls.

NBC was one of those who were more interested in influence than in actual measurement.
 

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You reject everything and anything that is negative about Trump.

Because that’s what he has conditioned you to do.

Your thoughts on this are worthless.

Actually, I don't.

For example, if this poll didn't provide sampling data I wouldn't have rejected it.

But they did provide the data and I presented the data.

In fact, I didn't even look at the results to the questions.
 
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TU Curmudgeon

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You have no idea if they actually did any such weighting.

I do know what the standard practices of reputable polling firms is.

Given that this is a poll that is conducted by a reputable polling firm (and one employed by an entity that it is pretty difficult to classify as "left-wing"), I'm content that they did do it.

Now, if you have any evidence that this is NOT what is done (other than "I don't like the results and will come up with a repetition of a bogus argument that has been shot down before in order to ignore the results), please present it.
 

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Actually, I don't.

For example, if this poll didn't provide sampling data I wouldn't have rejected it.

True, you would have used the same bogus reason for rejecting the poll as you have used to reject other polls that also reported things that you didn't want to hear.

However if this poll had said something that you wanted to hear you wouldn't (likely) have rejected it.
 

Deuce

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Actually, I don't.

For example, if this poll didn't provide sampling data I wouldn't have rejected it.

But they did provide the data and I presented the data.

In fact, I didn't even look at the results to the questions.

I've seen you "reject" polls that were within margin of error of the gallup party affiliation numbers. You aren't doing anything here in good faith
 

Mycroft

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I do know what the standard practices of reputable polling firms is.

Given that this is a poll that is conducted by a reputable polling firm (and one employed by an entity that it is pretty difficult to classify as "left-wing"), I'm content that they did do it.

Now, if you have any evidence that this is NOT what is done (other than "I don't like the results and will come up with a repetition of a bogus argument that has been shot down before in order to ignore the results), please present it.

LOL!!

You make a contention that the pollsters applied "normalization". I say there is no indication they did any such thing. And you come back with, "Well prove they didn't!!".

Thanks...but I'll just stick with the facts that we DO know. The facts that the pollster presented. The facts that caused me to reject the poll.
 

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LOL!!

You make a contention that the pollsters applied "normalization". I say there is no indication they did any such thing. And you come back with, "Well prove they didn't!!".

Thanks...but I'll just stick with the facts that we DO know. The facts that the pollster presented. The facts that caused me to reject the poll.

Even if you assume they didn't normalize and then apply normalization based on your gallup numbers it doesn't really change much.
 

haymarket

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Um - because that's what the people who agreed to be polled said their party affiliation was?

You do know that almost all polls keep sampling until they have a number of responses that enables them to reach statistically reliable results for the poll AND THEN STOP, don't you?

Polls attempt to replicate the percentages that are reflected in the population.. Race, gender, age and political affiliation are some of those.
 

haymarket

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The months BEFORE the election, when the bogus polls were presented, did their job. They influenced the prospective voters. Once they had voted or were about to vote, pollsters reduced the bogus nature of their polls.

NBC was one of those who were more interested in influence than in actual measurement.

Please provide verifiable evidence for this claim that polling companies did what you claim they did and knew their numbers were bogus.
 
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