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PLease DON'T fall for phony Beto!

I think the demographics of the country are changing in favor of Democrats and progressive ideas but too much too soon is a bad idea. Beto and others represent progressive ideas but not absolute culture shock.

Agree but some here might argue that progressives are holding the youth and motivating them. If they feel under represented they could lose that ambition. I feel Trump is skewing us. We think only in terms of him. We need to consider what happens if he is gone? Lets just say he resigns in 6 months and Pence loses the 2020 primary to Nikki Haley. That makes a Beto thing less sure. If you recall that sort of thing happened in 2000 when the progressives felt Gore was republican lite and went for Nader. They lost. Moderates are great and all but since I am one I can tell you that my vote is all over the place. I am not a reliable voter for either side. So it would be a mistake to put the future of your party on people like me. All I am saying is I can see two sides to Beto.
 
I agree but I am a moderate. I have family that are far more left leaning and they worry about the impact of Beto. Sure he will win against Trump because moderates will flock to him. He appeals to the soccer moms out there. But does he put the democratic party in the center? Sounds ok to me but if you are a progressive thats terrible. What happens in 2024 if a moderate republican runs? Will those that vote for Beto flock back in droves for the moderate republican again like they did after Bill Clinton? Do progressive issues take a back seat for another 8 years? It wont be a big issue with Trump there because frankly most want him gone and would vote for a toad over him. But long term? Progressives will be either angry as hell or apathetic.

I supported Bernie in 2016. I guess I would be labeled as a Progressive.

I think if O'Rourke ends up the nominee, even the most ardent democratic progressives will be happy with him if they believe he can defeat Trump or whoever the GOP nominee is in 2020.

Think of it this way: the hottest and most beautiful cheerleader in the graduating class in high school marries the most handsome guy who was also the star athlete. They were a couple right out of the magazines. But over the next ten years he became a drunk and a cheat and abusive and sent her to the doctors or even emergency a few times. After a really messy divorce she finally gets rid of him. A year or two later she in introduced to a guy ten years older, he is balding, pudgy and has thick glasses and was a nerd in high school. But she goes out with him and he treats her like a goddess and shows himself to be a true gentleman who thinks he has been sent an angel from heaven and would do anything for her.

So she is happy to marry him.

I think that will be the progressives in 2020 should O'Rourke get the nomination. They will be more than happy with 2/3 of a loaf of bread after suffering through four years of Trumps crap.
 
Well let me say something. I spoke to a female friend a few days ago who has been a republican her whole life. She is not a Trump supporter and sat out 2016. She now is all in on Beto. Her reasons? Well "he isnt Trump and he isnt one of those damn socialists." She adores Beto. Has begun locally campaigning and doing grass roots stuff for him. You can bet all the moderate right leaning suburbanites that dont like Trump will be all in for Beto. I am now convinced if he runs he will win. Those NeverTrump indies and moderates will run 2020. Democrats wont vote against him either. The WH is his if he wants it. Everybody else will be secondary. I am now hearing a lot more people talk about "Beto this and Beto that" way up here in New England.

As I've said before to this sort of starry eyed delusion of Beto's invincibility predicated on what seems to be anecdote, I completely disagree as there is no evidentiary basis to this. He doesn't have the charisma, the polling, or the bona fides to dominate what promises to be a crowded field full of popular Dems. What star power he does have is almost entirely an artifice of a media that has essentially done nothing but shill for the man.

He is a progressive voice in the deep South. He could not have done as well as he did in Conservative Texas by campaigning far left. He can pick off moderate Republicans in a National election. His views are progressive enough. Believing in health care that is universal is radical enough... ...Who ever gets the nomination will not be a far left progressive. They will be center left with the potential to govern from center left to far left. The Democratic party needs change not more of the Obama years with Biden at the top of a ticket.

You know who is actually a progressive voice in the deep south who lost his race but achieved far more in terms of making inroads with conservatives than Beto did in a much more hostile district (possibly the most hostile of all)? Ojeda.

With regards to the media, I'm not saying that there's some kind of smoke filled room where they're engaging in a devious scheme to push Beto, but the fact of the matter is, pretty much every mainstream outlet I know of that isn't Repub aligned has been tooting this man's horn essentially without causation over all others lately; convergence rather than conspiracy, but one that's surely motivated by his alignment with establishment politics given the other people they could be talking up. Moreover if you're looking for change you'll be disappointed as this strongly implies Beto is essentially more of the same; more status quo prosaic Obama/Clinton style neo-liberalism that they champion tirelessly.

And yes, it absolutely does bother progressives that he is not yet on board with MFA; if you haven't been paying attention it's definitely something of a litmus test. Beyond that, there are indeed shades of Obama all about this guy where he puts on the facade of progressivism only to abandon that more or less immediately the moment he hits office, governing as a standard establishment Dem; y'know, the sort of thing that saw the Dem party utterly routed in 2010 and beyond? That made a Trump win possible? That too concerns us, and it should furthermore concern anyone who cares about the long term prospects of the party, rather than scoring a short term win for their internal faction.

Also where's the proof that we're going to be stuck with another status quo donor friendly corporatist as nominee (what you nominally term as 'centre left')? The only thing that even begins to suggest this is Biden's polling, but the guy is no sure bet, even assuming he does run. Moreover I think it's hilarious that some people still identify what are commonplace, successful policies and programs in the rest of the developed world as being 'far left'. Jesus christ, it's not that Europe, the Commonwealth and the rest of them are far left raging demi-communists, it's that we've flirted with the lunatic fringes of the right, and have been pulled ever further in that direction for decades upon decades; the United States' Overton window is the one that is skewed, not that of the rest of the free world; by any reasonable standard a 'centre left' Democrat is a bona fide conservative at best in a sweeping majority of developed countries.

I supported Bernie in 2016. I guess I would be labeled as a Progressive...

...They will be more than happy with 2/3 of a loaf of bread after suffering through four years of Trumps crap.

I mean if it comes down to Beto vs Trump, god forbid, yeah, we'll pick Beto reluctantly (but not as reluctantly as we might pick say Hillary); however I suspect a majority of us won't be happy about it at all given there are far better candidates that appear to be poised for the nomination process; Ojeda who has officially declared is already a markedly superior option.
 
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I supported Bernie in 2016. I guess I would be labeled as a Progressive.

I think if O'Rourke ends up the nominee, even the most ardent democratic progressives will be happy with him if they believe he can defeat Trump or whoever the GOP nominee is in 2020.

Think of it this way: the hottest and most beautiful cheerleader in the graduating class in high school marries the most handsome guy who was also the star athlete. They were a couple right out of the magazines. But over the next ten years he became a drunk and a cheat and abusive and sent her to the doctors or even emergency a few times. After a really messy divorce she finally gets rid of him. A year or two later she in introduced to a guy ten years older, he is balding, pudgy and has thick glasses and was a nerd in high school. But she goes out with him and he treats her like a goddess and shows himself to be a true gentleman who thinks he has been sent an angel from heaven and would do anything for her.

So she is happy to marry him.

I think that will be the progressives in 2020 should O'Rourke get the nomination. They will be more than happy with 2/3 of a loaf of bread after suffering through four years of Trumps crap.

But couldnt we argue that anyone other than Trump would make progressives happy in 2020? I mean I have progressive family members and they cheered when even the blue dogs won some seats these past midterms. Anything to swell dem ranks. I think even progressives would cheer Joe Manchin if he ran and won in 2020. But I bet by 2022 they wouldnt be as happy.
 
As I've said before to this sort of starry eyed delusion of Beto's invincibility predicated on what seems to be anecdote, I completely disagree as there is no evidentiary basis to this. He doesn't have the charisma, the polling, or the bona fides to dominate what promises to be a crowded field full of popular Dems. What star power he does have is almost entirely an artifice of a media that has essentially done nothing but shill for the man.



You know who is actually a progressive voice in the deep south who lost his race but achieved far more in terms of making inroads with conservatives than Beto did in a much more hostile district (possibly the most hostile of all)? Ojeda.

With regards to the media, I'm not saying that there's some kind of smoke filled room where they're engaging in a devious scheme to push Beto, but the fact of the matter is, pretty much every mainstream outlet I know of that isn't Repub aligned has been tooting this man's horn essentially without causation over all others lately; convergence rather than conspiracy, but one that's surely motivated by his alignment with establishment politics given the other people they could be talking up. Moreover if you're looking for change you'll be disappointed as this strongly implies Beto is essentially more of the same; more status quo prosaic Obama/Clinton style neo-liberalism that they champion tirelessly.

And yes, it absolutely does bother progressives that he is not yet on board with MFA; if you haven't been paying attention it's definitely something of a litmus test. Beyond that, there are indeed shades of Obama all about this guy where he puts on the facade of progressivism only to abandon that more or less immediately the moment he hits office, governing as a standard establishment Dem; y'know, the sort of thing that saw the Dem party utterly routed in 2010 and beyond? That made a Trump win possible? That too concerns us, and it should furthermore concern anyone who cares about the long term prospects of the party, rather than scoring a short term win for their internal faction.

Also where's the proof that we're going to be stuck with another status quo donor friendly corporatist as nominee (what you nominally term as 'centre left')? The only thing that even begins to suggest this is Biden's polling, but the guy is no sure bet, even assuming he does run. Moreover I think it's hilarious that some people still identify what are commonplace, successful policies and programs in the rest of the developed world as being 'far left'. Jesus christ, it's not that Europe, the Commonwealth and the rest of them are far left raging demi-communists, it's that we've flirted with the lunatic fringes of the right, and have been pulled ever further in that direction for decades upon decades; the United States' Overton window is the one that is skewed, not that of the rest of the free world; by any reasonable standard a 'centre left' Democrat is a bona fide conservative at best in a sweeping majority of developed countries.



I mean if it comes down to Beto vs Trump, god forbid, yeah, we'll pick Beto reluctantly (but not as reluctantly as we might pick say Hillary); however I suspect a majority of us won't be happy about it at all given there are far better candidates that appear to be poised for the nomination process; Ojeda who has officially declared is already a markedly superior option.

Comparing the two candidates to the baseball hot stove league.....O'Rourke is like Bryce Harper while Ojeda is Nick Castellanos.
 
But couldnt we argue that anyone other than Trump would make progressives happy in 2020? I mean I have progressive family members and they cheered when even the blue dogs won some seats these past midterms. Anything to swell dem ranks. I think even progressives would cheer Joe Manchin if he ran and won in 2020. But I bet by 2022 they wouldnt be as happy.

You raise a valid point.
 
Comparing the two candidates to the baseball hot stove league.....O'Rourke is like Bryce Harper while Ojeda is Nick Castellanos.

...On what basis?

Ojeda was far more successful in his riding if we're talking about progress made/points gained, and in a far more hostile district at that, nevermind that he has hands down more charisma.
 
But couldnt we argue that anyone other than Trump would make progressives happy in 2020? I mean I have progressive family members and they cheered when even the blue dogs won some seats these past midterms. Anything to swell dem ranks. I think even progressives would cheer Joe Manchin if he ran and won in 2020. But I bet by 2022 they wouldnt be as happy.

I think it's pretty obvious that progressives, on the whole, would greatly prefer just about any candidate to Trump; this hasn't really changed from 2016, though feelings were more raw then due to the blatantly skewed DNC primary process.

That said, that doesn't mean we'd be happy to elect Joe Manchin, or happy that he won the primary.

Moreover, it is extremely dangerous to assume that virtually any candidate can succeed against Trump, and that progressive (or any other) votes are guaranteed and can be taken for granted; complacency, arrogance and defeat are all the very best of friends.
 
...On what basis?

Ojeda was far more successful in his riding if we're talking about progress made/points gained, and in a far more hostile district at that, nevermind that he has hands down more charisma.

Name recognition among the voters.
 
Name recognition among the voters.

Right, which is largely an outcome of being tirelessly pumped up by MSM in recent months, presumably because his policies align with the preference of their execs and, I suppose to them, it seems like he might be able to fit Obama's mold despite not having nearly the charisma/oratory; I can see no other compelling reason to go as all in on this one guy as they did.
 
Right, which is largely an outcome of being tirelessly pumped up by MSM in recent months, presumably because his policies align with the preference of their execs and, I suppose to them, it seems like he might be able to fit Obama's mold despite not having nearly the charisma/oratory; I can see no other compelling reason to go as all in on this one guy as they did.

There is one reason that is above all others: Robert Francis O'Rourke is a young and energetic and vibrant personality who excites people and they think he can win defeating Trump in 2020.

That is the compelling reason that "trumps" everything else.
 
There is one reason that is above all others: Robert Francis O'Rourke is a young and energetic and vibrant personality who excites people and they think he can win defeating Trump in 2020.

That is the compelling reason that "trumps" everything else.

So... Ojeda is not? Last I checked he was also 'young, energetic and vibrant'.

Again, I don't see why this explains pushing Beto above him, or other young, energetic and vibrant personalities that are prospective candidates.
 
So... Ojeda is not? Last I checked he was also 'young, energetic and vibrant'.

Again, I don't see why this explains pushing Beto above him, or other young, energetic and vibrant personalities that are prospective candidates.

Again, Ojeda is not in the same league as O'Rourke in terms of name recognition, excitement among the party or anything else that will get him the nomination. You seem to be the only person here pushing him.

Let me be brutally frank here - Ojeda is a small state state Senator who pales in comparison to O'Rourke in visibility and charisma and just plain looking presidential. Very few people have even heard of him. And its not going to change no matter how enthusiastic you are.
 
Again, Ojeda is not in the same league as O'Rourke in terms of name recognition, excitement among the party or anything else that will get him the nomination. You seem to be the only person here pushing him.

Let me be brutally frank here - Ojeda is a small state state Senator who pales in comparison to O'Rourke in visibility and charisma and just plain looking presidential. Very few people have even heard of him. And its not going to change no matter how enthusiastic you are.

While we're being brutally frank, I'll gladly reciprocate: On charisma, as someone who followed (and supported) Beto start to finish in his bid for Texas, I can categorically say that he is absolutely Ojeda's inferior; his debate performance was mediocre at best (much to my chagrin; it may have cost him the win against Cruz even), and his oratory underwhelming. Beto might well have won in Texas if he weren't such a lukewarm presence; if he were instead someone like say Ojeda who advanced his party by 32 points in his riding versus Beto's laughably paltry, even contrastingly pathetic +15% ...and all this despite vastly outgunning Cruz more than 2 : 1 on campaign funds vs Ojeda's relative parity of resources, and where Trump (who is wildly popular in West Virginia) was repeatedly forced to personally intercede on Carol Miller's behalf when she began to lose.

On name recognition, it's pure artifice per an infatuated media as stated earlier; you can't tell me honestly for a second that if Ojeda had the same kind of exposure that he wouldn't be on the same level. On excitement, I don't see the polling to really suggest that, and what differential exists is almost certainly due to that divide in coverage. Yes, I suppose a guy who has benefited from millions if not tens of millions worth of free broadcast/advertising relative to Ojeda beats him on NM/excitement; that shouldn't surprise anyone. But hey, go on thinking that he's the golden boy essentially because MSNBC and CNN said so; you do you, and in the end, we'll see who's right.

Lastly, I'm not the only Ojeda fan here, and as we draw closer to the primary, I expect he will begin to close that exposure gap.
 
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The only thing I can imagine that could sideline Beto is if Castro runs. Its conceivable they cancel each other out and someone else wins TX. Also if Kamala runs, she will get CA and their primary is early enough to do damage. Beto could potentially end up like Sanders and get the heartland and smaller states but lose the big ones like CA, NY and FL if others like Booker, Gillibrand and Harris step in. There always is the risk of damage with so many running and home state popularity.

If Kamala runs, Californians will be pissed. We voted for a woman who said she wanted to represent California as a senator; we expect our senators to do just that. Hell, a year ago, she'd barely been in congress long enough to find the ladies' room when she was leaking out presidential ambitions. As a Californian, that flat pisses me off. I didn't vote to waste our senate seat for the next four years to someone whose only focus is her own blind ambitions. If she runs and loses, good luck keeping her Senate seat. I sure as hell won't vote for her again, and I am not alone.
 
I think it's pretty obvious that progressives, on the whole, would greatly prefer just about any candidate to Trump; this hasn't really changed from 2016, though feelings were more raw then due to the blatantly skewed DNC primary process.

That said, that doesn't mean we'd be happy to elect Joe Manchin, or happy that he won the primary.

Moreover, it is extremely dangerous to assume that virtually any candidate can succeed against Trump, and that progressive (or any other) votes are guaranteed and can be taken for granted; complacency, arrogance and defeat are all the very best of friends.

I can agree with that but seeing turnout from midterms the electorate wants Trump gone. So I think they will get behind anyone that runs against him. Even many republicans as long as that candidate isnt super far left. The only real danger out there is if we see a third party challenge. A decent Green candidate or even an indie run by Kasich. That could skew the votes and attract people away from the dem candidate.
 
While we're being brutally frank, I'll gladly reciprocate: On charisma, as someone who followed (and supported) Beto start to finish in his bid for Texas, I can categorically say that he is absolutely Ojeda's inferior; his debate performance was mediocre at best (much to my chagrin; it may have cost him the win against Cruz even), and his oratory underwhelming. Beto might well have won in Texas if he weren't such a lukewarm presence; if he were instead someone like say Ojeda who advanced his party by 32 points in his riding versus Beto's laughably paltry, even contrastingly pathetic +15% ...and all this despite vastly outgunning Cruz more than 2 : 1 on campaign funds vs Ojeda's relative parity of resources, and where Trump (who is wildly popular in West Virginia) was repeatedly forced to personally intercede on Carol Miller's behalf when she began to lose.

On name recognition, it's pure artifice per an infatuated media as stated earlier; you can't tell me honestly for a second that if Ojeda had the same kind of exposure that he wouldn't be on the same level. On excitement, I don't see the polling to really suggest that, and what differential exists is almost certainly due to that divide in coverage. Yes, I suppose a guy who has benefited from millions if not tens of millions worth of free broadcast/advertising relative to Ojeda beats him on NM/excitement; that shouldn't surprise anyone. But hey, go on thinking that he's the golden boy essentially because MSNBC and CNN said so; you do you, and in the end, we'll see who's right.

Lastly, I'm not the only Ojeda fan here, and as we draw closer to the primary, I expect he will begin to close that exposure gap.

We obviously disagree. A great deal in fact. Simply allow me to say that if your guy Owed wins - I will happily support him and work to get him elected.
 
There is one reason that is above all others: Robert Francis O'Rourke is a young and energetic and vibrant personality who excites people and they think he can win defeating Trump in 2020.

That is the compelling reason that "trumps" everything else.

Although there is an article out this morning about how Kamala Harris and Julian Castro are set to announce. That sets up something very interesting as I mentioned above. With CAs primary moved up, Kamala will certainly win there. Thats a ton of votes. Then with Julian and Beto potentially running they could split that TX vote and send it to Kamala or someone else. Warren will likely pick up New England and Booker or Gillibrand NY, NJ and PA. That leaves little room for Beto. Biden could also split some votes. I am starting to think if indeed all these people jump in its going to be a bit chaotic. We might see someone emerge we didnt expect or Biden to walk away with all of it. Neither would surprise me.
 
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If Kamala runs, Californians will be pissed. We voted for a woman who said she wanted to represent California as a senator; we expect our senators to do just that. Hell, a year ago, she'd barely been in congress long enough to find the ladies' room when she was leaking out presidential ambitions. As a Californian, that flat pisses me off. I didn't vote to waste our senate seat for the next four years to someone whose only focus is her own blind ambitions. If she runs and loses, good luck keeping her Senate seat. I sure as hell won't vote for her again, and I am not alone.

She appears set to announce on MLK day.
 
Although there is an article out this morning about how Kamala Harris and Julian Castro are set to announce. That sets up something very interesting as I mentioned above. With CAs primary moved up, Kamala will certainly win there. Thats a ton of votes. Then with Julian and Beto potentially running they could split that TX vote and send it to Kamala or someone else. Warren will likely pick up New England and Booker or Gillibrand NY, NJ and PA. That leaves little room for Beto. Biden could also split some votes. I am starting to think if indeed all these people jump in its going to be a bit chaotic. We might see someone emerge we didnt expect or Biden to walk away with all of it. Neither would surprise me.

If Biden gets in - yes, he will be the favorite in many places without a favorite son. I would expect O'Rourke to take Texas. California could be wide open although I agree Harris should finish strong but maybe not win it outright in first. Gillibrand will be a non factor as will Booker. Warren is a wild card and she has to do well early or her support will go to other women in the race.
 
We obviously disagree. A great deal in fact. Simply allow me to say that if your guy Owed wins - I will happily support him and work to get him elected.

Sounds good to me; likewise.

Although there is an article out this morning about how Kamala Harris and Julian Castro are set to announce. That sets up something very interesting as I mentioned above. With CAs primary moved up, Kamala will certainly win there. Thats a ton of votes. Then with Julian and Beto potentially running they could split that TX vote and send it to Kamala or someone else. Warren will likely pick up New England and Booker or Gillibrand NY, NJ and PA. That leaves little room for Beto. Biden could also split some votes. I am starting to think if indeed all these people jump in its going to be a bit chaotic. We might see someone emerge we didnt expect or Biden to walk away with all of it. Neither would surprise me.

This is what I keep trying to tell you; this is going to be a crowded, volatile field full of popular democrats. There are no surefire winners atm, whether Beto, Biden or Bernie.
 
Sounds good to me; likewise.



This is what I keep trying to tell you; this is going to be a crowded, volatile field full of popular democrats. There are no surefire winners atm, whether Beto, Biden or Bernie.

But there is also danger in that too. Thats where the media comes in. If they decide they like Beto or see their ratings rise when he is on, they will stump for him. So indirectly they can influence the vote. Beto hasnt stepped a foot in New England yet he is on our news almost daily. They keep saying how Warren and Sanders are doomed if he steps in. So thats already getting people saying "who is Beto?" We saw that with Trump, he got far more free coverage than anyone else and in a macabre way I think they wanted him to win. News ratings have never been higher.
 
Okay this is an odd video from Beto. I just heard a newscaster say "this could be his Dean scream moment." lol

"So, I’m here at the dentist.” Thus began Beto O’Rourke’s latest dispatch from El Paso, Texas, where the potential presidential contender filmed himself in a green bib — and with dental tools in his mouth — talking with his dental hygienist about life on the U.S.-Mexico border. The unusual video, posted on Instagram, left jaws agape in Washington and elsewhere Thursday. “Love me some Beto but this is self-parody territory,” tweeted Ana Marie Cox, founding editor of the political blog Wonkette.

https://www.politico.com/story/2019/01/10/dentist-beto-orourke-social-media-1096173
 
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