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Pessimism Sweeps Russia | The Moscow Times
A huge country, with vast natural resources, a powerful military, and an educated populace. Such possibilities.
Yet today it is a pariah state. A giant gas station armed with nuclear weapons and overseen by a corrupt mafia elite.
The state, with its 340,000 personnel National Guard, is prepared for the internal violence that will someday explode from Kaliningrad to Vladivostok.
1/15/19
In recent months, few topics have got as much attention from Russia analysts as popular disenchantment with the ruling elite. As many experts claim today, Russian society is beginning to show signs of discontent that the authorities should not ignore. Yet, the situation is somewhat more complicated than the ruled losing faith in their rulers. On the one hand, the authorities have started to “spill the beans”. This refers to phrases now in currency such as: “it’s not that the prices are high, it’s that you don’t earn enough;” “the state does not owe you anything, as nobody asked you to be born;” or “there is no money, but you need to hold on.” More important: there is another formula, which has not been criticized as outrageous, even by a significant proportion of apparently reasonable and even liberal people. Naturally, what I have in mind is the phrase “people are the second (or new) kind of oil.” This phrase is being repeated quite often today, in different variations. However, now the authorities are admitting that they will have to mine something not only from oil wells, but also from their subjects. This gets the elites into a state of stupor. They are beginning to realize that the much-desired transition from rent-giving “first oil” to the “second oil” may turn out to be impracticable under today’s conditions.
Meanwhile, negative expectations are manifested in the fact that the elites are getting ever more costly for the country. The historical optimism of the authorities exploiting the country is best reflected in its relative moderation, which implies a belief that a stable situation will not change. Officials increasingly act as if they perceived the opportunity to steal or provide themselves with some benefits as “a last-minute opportunity.” Society cannot live with a pessimism permeating all the social strata for a long time. This is why the situation must be changed as soon as possible, especially in economic terms since people are no longer influenced by political rhetoric and promises when assessing their own prospects. How realistic would it be to put such a turnaround into practice? How can one force officials to limit themselves to the revenues from the “first” oil and stop stealing from the people in small things and stop blocking the opportunities for people to earn money? This is the main question of our time, and the answer will determine the prospects of survival of the system. I believe that change is unlikely. Mostly because the Russian ruling elites have no ideology that could join them and force them to act in a forward-looking way. Today, ordinary people survive on their own and bureaucrats also act on their own, enriching themselves as much as they can. Neither the lower social strata nor the elites have any vision of the future. The absence of such a vision generates a deficit of historical optimism, pushing the system towards a debacle.
A huge country, with vast natural resources, a powerful military, and an educated populace. Such possibilities.
Yet today it is a pariah state. A giant gas station armed with nuclear weapons and overseen by a corrupt mafia elite.
The state, with its 340,000 personnel National Guard, is prepared for the internal violence that will someday explode from Kaliningrad to Vladivostok.