PEROTISTA’S 2020 Monthly SENATE, HOUSE and Presidency FORECAST 1 September 2020
Currently there are 53 Republicans and 47 Democrats in the Current Senate. There are 12 Democratic seats up for re-election vs. 23 for the Republicans.
Safe Democratic seats 10: Delaware, Illinois, Massachusetts, Minnesota, New Hampshire, New Mexico, New Jersey, Oregon, Rhode Island, Virginia.
Democratic at-risk seats of switching 2: Alabama, Michigan
Safe Republican seats 10: Alaska, Arkansas, Idaho, Louisiana, Mississippi, Nebraska, Oklahoma, South Dakota, West Virginia, Wyoming.
The Republicans have 13 at risk seats of switching this election cycle, Arizona, Colorado, Georgia 1, Georgia 2, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Maine, Montana, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas.
Alabama Jones D – Republican Tommy Tuberville looks like he will waltz to a win in November. If this wasn’t a party switch, I’d place Alabama into the Republican safe column. Republican pick up. R 54 D 46
Arizona McSally R – The Democrat Mark Kelly has maintained a high single digit lead of the incumbent McSally. McSally will need a miracle to turn this race around. Democratic Gain R 53 D 47
Colorado Gardner R – Gardner has managed to narrow former Democratic Governor John Hickenlooper lead down to 6 points. Gardner may make this a race after all. Nonetheless, I am sticking with Hickenlooper. Democratic pickup. R 52 D 48
Georgia Perdue R – This is one tight race between Democrat Jon Ossoff and incumbent Perdue. I’m sticking with Perdue only because he’s the incumbent. But keep a close eye on this one. According to Georgia law if no candidate receives 50% plus one vote, the top two finishers go to a runoff scheduled on 5 Jan 2021. Libertarian Shane Hazel, if he draws around 2% of the vote could deny either candidate the 50% plus one vote to avoid a runoff. Republican hold. R 52 D 48
Georgia Special Open R – Governor Kemp appointed Kelly Loeffler to replace Isakson who left the senate for health reasons. Being this is a special election, there will be no primary for this seat. All 21 declared candidates will be placed on the November ballot. If no candidate receives 50% plus one vote, there will be a runoff between the top two vote getters. We won’t know who wins this seat until after the runoff scheduled for 5 Jan 2021. Loffler and Collins are the top Republicans vying for this seat, Matt Lieberman and Raphael Warnock are the top two Democrats. Collins, Liberman, Loffler and Warnock are the top four in the polls, two of those four will face off in the runoff in January. Which two is anyone guess. Loeffler has taken the polling lead over fellow Republican Doug Collins 26-17 with Democrat Raphael Warnock also at 17% and Democrat Matt Lieberman in fourth at 13%. It's possible it could be the two Republicans facing each other in the January runoff, but the odds are against that. More likely it will be Loeffler vs. Warnock. Whichever Republican it is, the Republican should win. Republican Hold. R 52 D 48.
Iowa Ernst R – Democrat Theresa Greenfield and the incumbent Ernst are locked in a duel that fluxuates between one leading in one poll, the other in the next and so on. The Libertarian candidate, Rick Stewart is drawing around 4% of the vote. I think most of his votes will come from Ernst. So I’m sticking with Greenfield to win this very close race. Democratic Gain. R 51 D 49
Kansas Open R – Roberts decided not to run for a fifth term. Roger Marshal won the GOP primary and will face Democrat Barbara Bollier. This is a surprisingly close. Kansas being Kansas one would expect Marshal to be running away with this one. But he leads by an average of just 2 points in both August polls. Because this is Kansas, I’m sticking with the Republican. Republican hold. R 51 D 49
Kentucky McConnell R – Democrat McGrath has narrowed what once was a 12-point McConnell lead down to 5 points. So, I’m keeping Kentucky on my watch list. At least for this month. Republican hold R 51 D 49
Maine Collins R – Democrat Sara Gideon is poised to win this seat in what may be a fairly easy manner. She has maintained a 5-7-point lead in all the August polls. Democratic pick up R 50 D 50
Michigan Peters D – I’m adding Michigan to my watch list this month as Republican John James has narrowed a 10-point Peters lead down to 4 points. Peters will still win, but Michigan deserves a closer watch. Democratic Hold R 50 D 50.
Montana Daines R – Incumbent Daines has taken over the lead from former Democratic Governor Steve Bullock. Over the last two months, Daines has turned a 5-point deficit into a 6-point lead. Montana will stay red. Republican hold R 50 D 50
North Carolina Tillis R – Democrat Cal Cunningham looks like he might run away with this race. He has opened an 8 point lead this month. Democratic Gain R 49 D 51.
South Carolina Graham R – Democrat Jaime Harrison is trailing incumbent Graham by just 2 points. That’s enough to add South Carolina to my watch list. Who would have ever thought that a Democrat could win in South Carolina? It could happen. But it won’t. Republican hold R 49 D 51
Tennessee Open R – Alexander is not running for reelection. Bill Hagerty has won the Republican primary, he will face off against the Democratic primary winner, Marquita Bradshaw. There’s been no polling for this race. But the Republican Bill Hagerty will win it. Republican hold. R 49 D 51
Texas Cornyn R – Texas makes my list this month. Republican Cornyn lead over Democrat MJ Hegar is at 5 points at the of August. Quite a surprise when on considers Cornyn’s lead was 10 points at the end of July. But the narrowing of Cornyn’s lead to 5 points places Texas on my watch list. Cornyn will win, but it might not be easy. Republican hold R 49 D 51
This month I switch Montana from a Democratic gain to a Republican hold. I’ve also added Michigan, South Carolina and Texas to my watch list this month. One Democratic seat, two Republican seats. Then there’s a very real possibility that the two Georgia senate races will go to a runoff scheduled for 5 Jan 2021. Depending on the results of the other senate races, we may have to wait until both runoffs are final to know who controls the senate. It was the narrowing of the races in Michigan, South Carolina and Texas that has made them competitive. The Democrats will gain the senate by a 51-49 margin.
House of Representatives
Currently the House of Representative consists of 235 Democrats, 199 Republicans, 1 independent. The Republicans need a net gain of 19 seats to win back the house. They’ll be lucky to hang onto what they have. This month the Democrats have 25 competitive/at risk seats, down one from last month. The Republicans also have 25 competitive/at risk seats, up three from last month. Even though the competitive/at risk seats are even, the Democrats will have a net gain of five seats come the new House once it convenes in January. This is up four from last month. The New House will have 240 Democrats, 195 Republicans.
Presidency
There were two state changes this month, Ohio and North Carolina from Biden to Trump. Texas and Georgia remain nail biters but for now remain in the Trump column. One other state of noted interest. Would anyone believe Biden trails Trump by only 3 points in Alaska? Just 3 electoral votes there, but perhaps Trump’s very poor showing so far in states like Georgia, Texas and Alaska of all places show how vulnerable he is. On the popular vote side, Biden gained four tenths of a point to 49.6 while Trump gained 2.5 points for a tally of Biden 49.6 to Trump 42.5. Of the remaining 7.9%, third party voters make up 4.1% leaving only 3.8 in the undecided column. The electoral college tally for this month is Biden 319, Trump 219. Things are getting a bit tighter, but not close yet.
History
2019
December Senate 49 D 51 R, House 231 D, 204 R
Presidency Generic Democrat 50.8% Trump 46,5%, Electoral College Generic Democrat 334 Trump 204
2020
January Senate 49 D, 51 R, House 228 D, 207 R
Presidency Generic Democrat 50.1% Trump 46.1%, Electoral College Generic Democrat 323 Trump 215
February Senate 48 D, 52 R, House 230 D, 205 R
Presidency Generic Democrat 49.5%, Trump 46.4%, Electoral College Generic Democrat 323 Trump 215
March Senate 49 D, 51 R, House 230 D, 205 R
Presidency Generic Democrat 49.7%, Trump 46.3%, Electoral College Generic Democrat 309 Trump 229
April Senate 50 D, 50 R, House 231 D, 204 R
Presidency Biden 49.6%, Trump 45.3%, Electoral College Biden 308 Trump 230
May Senate 50 D, 50 R, House 231 D, 204 R
Presidency Biden 48.3%, Trump 42.4%, Electoral College, Biden 330 Trump 208
June Senate 50 D, 50 R, House 232 D, 203 R
Presidency Biden 48.4%, Trump 42.9%, Electoral College, Biden 319 Trump 219
July Senate 52 D, 48 R, House 236 D, 199 R
Presidency Biden 49.5%, Trump 40.1%, Electoral College, Biden 352, Trump 186
August Senate 52 D, 48R, House 236 D, 199 R
Presidency Biden 49.2%, Trump 40.0%, Third party 5.1%, Electoral college, Biden 352, Trump 186
September Senate 51 D, 49 R, House 240 D, 195 R
Presidency Biden 49.6%, Trump 42.5%, Third party 4.1%, Electoral College, Biden 319, Trump 219
Currently there are 53 Republicans and 47 Democrats in the Current Senate. There are 12 Democratic seats up for re-election vs. 23 for the Republicans.
Safe Democratic seats 10: Delaware, Illinois, Massachusetts, Minnesota, New Hampshire, New Mexico, New Jersey, Oregon, Rhode Island, Virginia.
Democratic at-risk seats of switching 2: Alabama, Michigan
Safe Republican seats 10: Alaska, Arkansas, Idaho, Louisiana, Mississippi, Nebraska, Oklahoma, South Dakota, West Virginia, Wyoming.
The Republicans have 13 at risk seats of switching this election cycle, Arizona, Colorado, Georgia 1, Georgia 2, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Maine, Montana, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas.
Alabama Jones D – Republican Tommy Tuberville looks like he will waltz to a win in November. If this wasn’t a party switch, I’d place Alabama into the Republican safe column. Republican pick up. R 54 D 46
Arizona McSally R – The Democrat Mark Kelly has maintained a high single digit lead of the incumbent McSally. McSally will need a miracle to turn this race around. Democratic Gain R 53 D 47
Colorado Gardner R – Gardner has managed to narrow former Democratic Governor John Hickenlooper lead down to 6 points. Gardner may make this a race after all. Nonetheless, I am sticking with Hickenlooper. Democratic pickup. R 52 D 48
Georgia Perdue R – This is one tight race between Democrat Jon Ossoff and incumbent Perdue. I’m sticking with Perdue only because he’s the incumbent. But keep a close eye on this one. According to Georgia law if no candidate receives 50% plus one vote, the top two finishers go to a runoff scheduled on 5 Jan 2021. Libertarian Shane Hazel, if he draws around 2% of the vote could deny either candidate the 50% plus one vote to avoid a runoff. Republican hold. R 52 D 48
Georgia Special Open R – Governor Kemp appointed Kelly Loeffler to replace Isakson who left the senate for health reasons. Being this is a special election, there will be no primary for this seat. All 21 declared candidates will be placed on the November ballot. If no candidate receives 50% plus one vote, there will be a runoff between the top two vote getters. We won’t know who wins this seat until after the runoff scheduled for 5 Jan 2021. Loffler and Collins are the top Republicans vying for this seat, Matt Lieberman and Raphael Warnock are the top two Democrats. Collins, Liberman, Loffler and Warnock are the top four in the polls, two of those four will face off in the runoff in January. Which two is anyone guess. Loeffler has taken the polling lead over fellow Republican Doug Collins 26-17 with Democrat Raphael Warnock also at 17% and Democrat Matt Lieberman in fourth at 13%. It's possible it could be the two Republicans facing each other in the January runoff, but the odds are against that. More likely it will be Loeffler vs. Warnock. Whichever Republican it is, the Republican should win. Republican Hold. R 52 D 48.
Iowa Ernst R – Democrat Theresa Greenfield and the incumbent Ernst are locked in a duel that fluxuates between one leading in one poll, the other in the next and so on. The Libertarian candidate, Rick Stewart is drawing around 4% of the vote. I think most of his votes will come from Ernst. So I’m sticking with Greenfield to win this very close race. Democratic Gain. R 51 D 49
Kansas Open R – Roberts decided not to run for a fifth term. Roger Marshal won the GOP primary and will face Democrat Barbara Bollier. This is a surprisingly close. Kansas being Kansas one would expect Marshal to be running away with this one. But he leads by an average of just 2 points in both August polls. Because this is Kansas, I’m sticking with the Republican. Republican hold. R 51 D 49
Kentucky McConnell R – Democrat McGrath has narrowed what once was a 12-point McConnell lead down to 5 points. So, I’m keeping Kentucky on my watch list. At least for this month. Republican hold R 51 D 49
Maine Collins R – Democrat Sara Gideon is poised to win this seat in what may be a fairly easy manner. She has maintained a 5-7-point lead in all the August polls. Democratic pick up R 50 D 50
Michigan Peters D – I’m adding Michigan to my watch list this month as Republican John James has narrowed a 10-point Peters lead down to 4 points. Peters will still win, but Michigan deserves a closer watch. Democratic Hold R 50 D 50.
Montana Daines R – Incumbent Daines has taken over the lead from former Democratic Governor Steve Bullock. Over the last two months, Daines has turned a 5-point deficit into a 6-point lead. Montana will stay red. Republican hold R 50 D 50
North Carolina Tillis R – Democrat Cal Cunningham looks like he might run away with this race. He has opened an 8 point lead this month. Democratic Gain R 49 D 51.
South Carolina Graham R – Democrat Jaime Harrison is trailing incumbent Graham by just 2 points. That’s enough to add South Carolina to my watch list. Who would have ever thought that a Democrat could win in South Carolina? It could happen. But it won’t. Republican hold R 49 D 51
Tennessee Open R – Alexander is not running for reelection. Bill Hagerty has won the Republican primary, he will face off against the Democratic primary winner, Marquita Bradshaw. There’s been no polling for this race. But the Republican Bill Hagerty will win it. Republican hold. R 49 D 51
Texas Cornyn R – Texas makes my list this month. Republican Cornyn lead over Democrat MJ Hegar is at 5 points at the of August. Quite a surprise when on considers Cornyn’s lead was 10 points at the end of July. But the narrowing of Cornyn’s lead to 5 points places Texas on my watch list. Cornyn will win, but it might not be easy. Republican hold R 49 D 51
This month I switch Montana from a Democratic gain to a Republican hold. I’ve also added Michigan, South Carolina and Texas to my watch list this month. One Democratic seat, two Republican seats. Then there’s a very real possibility that the two Georgia senate races will go to a runoff scheduled for 5 Jan 2021. Depending on the results of the other senate races, we may have to wait until both runoffs are final to know who controls the senate. It was the narrowing of the races in Michigan, South Carolina and Texas that has made them competitive. The Democrats will gain the senate by a 51-49 margin.
House of Representatives
Currently the House of Representative consists of 235 Democrats, 199 Republicans, 1 independent. The Republicans need a net gain of 19 seats to win back the house. They’ll be lucky to hang onto what they have. This month the Democrats have 25 competitive/at risk seats, down one from last month. The Republicans also have 25 competitive/at risk seats, up three from last month. Even though the competitive/at risk seats are even, the Democrats will have a net gain of five seats come the new House once it convenes in January. This is up four from last month. The New House will have 240 Democrats, 195 Republicans.
Presidency
There were two state changes this month, Ohio and North Carolina from Biden to Trump. Texas and Georgia remain nail biters but for now remain in the Trump column. One other state of noted interest. Would anyone believe Biden trails Trump by only 3 points in Alaska? Just 3 electoral votes there, but perhaps Trump’s very poor showing so far in states like Georgia, Texas and Alaska of all places show how vulnerable he is. On the popular vote side, Biden gained four tenths of a point to 49.6 while Trump gained 2.5 points for a tally of Biden 49.6 to Trump 42.5. Of the remaining 7.9%, third party voters make up 4.1% leaving only 3.8 in the undecided column. The electoral college tally for this month is Biden 319, Trump 219. Things are getting a bit tighter, but not close yet.
History
2019
December Senate 49 D 51 R, House 231 D, 204 R
Presidency Generic Democrat 50.8% Trump 46,5%, Electoral College Generic Democrat 334 Trump 204
2020
January Senate 49 D, 51 R, House 228 D, 207 R
Presidency Generic Democrat 50.1% Trump 46.1%, Electoral College Generic Democrat 323 Trump 215
February Senate 48 D, 52 R, House 230 D, 205 R
Presidency Generic Democrat 49.5%, Trump 46.4%, Electoral College Generic Democrat 323 Trump 215
March Senate 49 D, 51 R, House 230 D, 205 R
Presidency Generic Democrat 49.7%, Trump 46.3%, Electoral College Generic Democrat 309 Trump 229
April Senate 50 D, 50 R, House 231 D, 204 R
Presidency Biden 49.6%, Trump 45.3%, Electoral College Biden 308 Trump 230
May Senate 50 D, 50 R, House 231 D, 204 R
Presidency Biden 48.3%, Trump 42.4%, Electoral College, Biden 330 Trump 208
June Senate 50 D, 50 R, House 232 D, 203 R
Presidency Biden 48.4%, Trump 42.9%, Electoral College, Biden 319 Trump 219
July Senate 52 D, 48 R, House 236 D, 199 R
Presidency Biden 49.5%, Trump 40.1%, Electoral College, Biden 352, Trump 186
August Senate 52 D, 48R, House 236 D, 199 R
Presidency Biden 49.2%, Trump 40.0%, Third party 5.1%, Electoral college, Biden 352, Trump 186
September Senate 51 D, 49 R, House 240 D, 195 R
Presidency Biden 49.6%, Trump 42.5%, Third party 4.1%, Electoral College, Biden 319, Trump 219