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PEROTISTA’S 2020 Monthly SENATE, HOUSE and Presidency FORECAST 1 September 2020

Perotista

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PEROTISTA’S 2020 Monthly SENATE, HOUSE and Presidency FORECAST 1 September 2020

Currently there are 53 Republicans and 47 Democrats in the Current Senate. There are 12 Democratic seats up for re-election vs. 23 for the Republicans.

Safe Democratic seats 10: Delaware, Illinois, Massachusetts, Minnesota, New Hampshire, New Mexico, New Jersey, Oregon, Rhode Island, Virginia.

Democratic at-risk seats of switching 2: Alabama, Michigan

Safe Republican seats 10: Alaska, Arkansas, Idaho, Louisiana, Mississippi, Nebraska, Oklahoma, South Dakota, West Virginia, Wyoming.

The Republicans have 13 at risk seats of switching this election cycle, Arizona, Colorado, Georgia 1, Georgia 2, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Maine, Montana, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas.

Alabama Jones D – Republican Tommy Tuberville looks like he will waltz to a win in November. If this wasn’t a party switch, I’d place Alabama into the Republican safe column. Republican pick up. R 54 D 46

Arizona McSally R – The Democrat Mark Kelly has maintained a high single digit lead of the incumbent McSally. McSally will need a miracle to turn this race around. Democratic Gain R 53 D 47

Colorado Gardner R – Gardner has managed to narrow former Democratic Governor John Hickenlooper lead down to 6 points. Gardner may make this a race after all. Nonetheless, I am sticking with Hickenlooper. Democratic pickup. R 52 D 48

Georgia Perdue R – This is one tight race between Democrat Jon Ossoff and incumbent Perdue. I’m sticking with Perdue only because he’s the incumbent. But keep a close eye on this one. According to Georgia law if no candidate receives 50% plus one vote, the top two finishers go to a runoff scheduled on 5 Jan 2021. Libertarian Shane Hazel, if he draws around 2% of the vote could deny either candidate the 50% plus one vote to avoid a runoff. Republican hold. R 52 D 48

Georgia Special Open R – Governor Kemp appointed Kelly Loeffler to replace Isakson who left the senate for health reasons. Being this is a special election, there will be no primary for this seat. All 21 declared candidates will be placed on the November ballot. If no candidate receives 50% plus one vote, there will be a runoff between the top two vote getters. We won’t know who wins this seat until after the runoff scheduled for 5 Jan 2021. Loffler and Collins are the top Republicans vying for this seat, Matt Lieberman and Raphael Warnock are the top two Democrats. Collins, Liberman, Loffler and Warnock are the top four in the polls, two of those four will face off in the runoff in January. Which two is anyone guess. Loeffler has taken the polling lead over fellow Republican Doug Collins 26-17 with Democrat Raphael Warnock also at 17% and Democrat Matt Lieberman in fourth at 13%. It's possible it could be the two Republicans facing each other in the January runoff, but the odds are against that. More likely it will be Loeffler vs. Warnock. Whichever Republican it is, the Republican should win. Republican Hold. R 52 D 48.

Iowa Ernst R – Democrat Theresa Greenfield and the incumbent Ernst are locked in a duel that fluxuates between one leading in one poll, the other in the next and so on. The Libertarian candidate, Rick Stewart is drawing around 4% of the vote. I think most of his votes will come from Ernst. So I’m sticking with Greenfield to win this very close race. Democratic Gain. R 51 D 49

Kansas Open R – Roberts decided not to run for a fifth term. Roger Marshal won the GOP primary and will face Democrat Barbara Bollier. This is a surprisingly close. Kansas being Kansas one would expect Marshal to be running away with this one. But he leads by an average of just 2 points in both August polls. Because this is Kansas, I’m sticking with the Republican. Republican hold. R 51 D 49

Kentucky McConnell R – Democrat McGrath has narrowed what once was a 12-point McConnell lead down to 5 points. So, I’m keeping Kentucky on my watch list. At least for this month. Republican hold R 51 D 49

Maine Collins R – Democrat Sara Gideon is poised to win this seat in what may be a fairly easy manner. She has maintained a 5-7-point lead in all the August polls. Democratic pick up R 50 D 50

Michigan Peters D – I’m adding Michigan to my watch list this month as Republican John James has narrowed a 10-point Peters lead down to 4 points. Peters will still win, but Michigan deserves a closer watch. Democratic Hold R 50 D 50.

Montana Daines R – Incumbent Daines has taken over the lead from former Democratic Governor Steve Bullock. Over the last two months, Daines has turned a 5-point deficit into a 6-point lead. Montana will stay red. Republican hold R 50 D 50

North Carolina Tillis R – Democrat Cal Cunningham looks like he might run away with this race. He has opened an 8 point lead this month. Democratic Gain R 49 D 51.

South Carolina Graham R – Democrat Jaime Harrison is trailing incumbent Graham by just 2 points. That’s enough to add South Carolina to my watch list. Who would have ever thought that a Democrat could win in South Carolina? It could happen. But it won’t. Republican hold R 49 D 51

Tennessee Open R – Alexander is not running for reelection. Bill Hagerty has won the Republican primary, he will face off against the Democratic primary winner, Marquita Bradshaw. There’s been no polling for this race. But the Republican Bill Hagerty will win it. Republican hold. R 49 D 51

Texas Cornyn R – Texas makes my list this month. Republican Cornyn lead over Democrat MJ Hegar is at 5 points at the of August. Quite a surprise when on considers Cornyn’s lead was 10 points at the end of July. But the narrowing of Cornyn’s lead to 5 points places Texas on my watch list. Cornyn will win, but it might not be easy. Republican hold R 49 D 51

This month I switch Montana from a Democratic gain to a Republican hold. I’ve also added Michigan, South Carolina and Texas to my watch list this month. One Democratic seat, two Republican seats. Then there’s a very real possibility that the two Georgia senate races will go to a runoff scheduled for 5 Jan 2021. Depending on the results of the other senate races, we may have to wait until both runoffs are final to know who controls the senate. It was the narrowing of the races in Michigan, South Carolina and Texas that has made them competitive. The Democrats will gain the senate by a 51-49 margin.

House of Representatives

Currently the House of Representative consists of 235 Democrats, 199 Republicans, 1 independent. The Republicans need a net gain of 19 seats to win back the house. They’ll be lucky to hang onto what they have. This month the Democrats have 25 competitive/at risk seats, down one from last month. The Republicans also have 25 competitive/at risk seats, up three from last month. Even though the competitive/at risk seats are even, the Democrats will have a net gain of five seats come the new House once it convenes in January. This is up four from last month. The New House will have 240 Democrats, 195 Republicans.

Presidency

There were two state changes this month, Ohio and North Carolina from Biden to Trump. Texas and Georgia remain nail biters but for now remain in the Trump column. One other state of noted interest. Would anyone believe Biden trails Trump by only 3 points in Alaska? Just 3 electoral votes there, but perhaps Trump’s very poor showing so far in states like Georgia, Texas and Alaska of all places show how vulnerable he is. On the popular vote side, Biden gained four tenths of a point to 49.6 while Trump gained 2.5 points for a tally of Biden 49.6 to Trump 42.5. Of the remaining 7.9%, third party voters make up 4.1% leaving only 3.8 in the undecided column. The electoral college tally for this month is Biden 319, Trump 219. Things are getting a bit tighter, but not close yet.

History
2019
December Senate 49 D 51 R, House 231 D, 204 R
Presidency Generic Democrat 50.8% Trump 46,5%, Electoral College Generic Democrat 334 Trump 204

2020
January Senate 49 D, 51 R, House 228 D, 207 R
Presidency Generic Democrat 50.1% Trump 46.1%, Electoral College Generic Democrat 323 Trump 215
February Senate 48 D, 52 R, House 230 D, 205 R
Presidency Generic Democrat 49.5%, Trump 46.4%, Electoral College Generic Democrat 323 Trump 215
March Senate 49 D, 51 R, House 230 D, 205 R
Presidency Generic Democrat 49.7%, Trump 46.3%, Electoral College Generic Democrat 309 Trump 229
April Senate 50 D, 50 R, House 231 D, 204 R
Presidency Biden 49.6%, Trump 45.3%, Electoral College Biden 308 Trump 230
May Senate 50 D, 50 R, House 231 D, 204 R
Presidency Biden 48.3%, Trump 42.4%, Electoral College, Biden 330 Trump 208
June Senate 50 D, 50 R, House 232 D, 203 R
Presidency Biden 48.4%, Trump 42.9%, Electoral College, Biden 319 Trump 219
July Senate 52 D, 48 R, House 236 D, 199 R
Presidency Biden 49.5%, Trump 40.1%, Electoral College, Biden 352, Trump 186
August Senate 52 D, 48R, House 236 D, 199 R
Presidency Biden 49.2%, Trump 40.0%, Third party 5.1%, Electoral college, Biden 352, Trump 186
September Senate 51 D, 49 R, House 240 D, 195 R
Presidency Biden 49.6%, Trump 42.5%, Third party 4.1%, Electoral College, Biden 319, Trump 219
 

tres borrachos

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Pero, your analyses have always been fascinating to read. I think this one, two months out, is the most fascinating so far. Thank you as always for your hard work. Look forward to the next two.
 

Perotista

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You're most welcome. I seen a bit of movement at the beginning of the month toward Trump. But since then, it has even out pretty much back to where it was before the week began.

One thing I've learned doing these, is not to get excited over a short term movement. Always give it time to see if it has legs or is just a blimp in the long term picture.

One thing that fascinates me this year, is how we really haven't had the normal up and downs. Everything has been steady and fairly slow. Almost like most folks had their minds made up a year in advance.

Just one more thing to keep an eye on.
 

Trippy Trekker

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Thank you PEROTISTA for your thoughtful and thorough monthly reports!

In short, you see control of the HOUSE remaining firmly in DEMs hands. Power in the SENATE currently tilts GOP, with a precarious prospect of a slight shift to DEMs after the General Election.

Team Biden firmly leads in DC and 19 out of the 20 states Hillary won in 2016. Only NH (4 EVs... and still leans more Blue than Red) looks like a Battleground.

Meanwhile, Team Trump struggles in 6 out of the 30 states he won in 2016: PA(20), MI(16), WI(10), AZ(11), FL(20), NC(15).

Team Trump also has to marshal resources to keep hold of TX(38) and GA(16).

Team Trump's current fundraising continues to trail Team Biden.

The economic upheaval the past six months coupled with Team Trump's poor management of the Pandemic add momentum to Team Biden.

The current News Spotlight shifted from accusations Biden digitally penetrated an unwilling former female staffer to Trump cheated on his S.A.T, privately denigrates the Military, lies with impunity, only cares about his legacy, his family, friends and wielding power.

I smell a Biden victory!
 

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You're most welcome. I seen a bit of movement at the beginning of the month toward Trump. But since then, it has even out pretty much back to where it was before the week began.

One thing I've learned doing these, is not to get excited over a short term movement. Always give it time to see if it has legs or is just a blimp in the long term picture.

One thing that fascinates me this year, is how we really haven't had the normal up and downs. Everything has been steady and fairly slow. Almost like most folks had their minds made up a year in advance.

Just one more thing to keep an eye on.
How do I get to your October blog?
 

Perotista

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How do I get to your October blog?
Beats me, they took the blogs away. You can access old blogs, but can't post new ones. I suppose that will come at a later date. When and if, I will do an update then. But with no place to post them, I haven't bothered as of yet to update the old one. I thought about a starting a thread on it, but dismissed it as the threads disappear really fast. if not too many people are interested. So it's in limbo as of now. Besides, the wife and I are sponsoring a big ceremony at Wat Buddha Bucha this Saturday and Sunday.

So when the blogs return, I'll post it then or perhaps figure something out after the Kathin ceremony at the Wat. That has kept us busy..
 

Linc

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Beats me, they took the blogs away. You can access old blogs, but can't post new ones. I suppose that will come at a later date. When and if, I will do an update then. But with no place to post them, I haven't bothered as of yet to update the old one. I thought about a starting a thread on it, but dismissed it as the threads disappear really fast. if not too many people are interested. So it's in limbo as of now. Besides, the wife and I are sponsoring a big ceremony at Wat Buddha Bucha this Saturday and Sunday.

So when the blogs return, I'll post it then or perhaps figure something out after the Kathin ceremony at the Wat. That has kept us busy..
Enjoy 😊 your special weekend at the Wat. Enjoy your Braves next week.

If you could please post a reply with an update to your September posting/blogging to me or another poster or yourself when you get time, I’d be very appreciative.

I’d certainly engage with you, as I’m sure others would, such as your GA having two Senate runoffs in Jan. to possibly determine the Senate. This way, the blog keeps going.

I’ll be checking back for a reply. I’m struggling with the new format. ‘Remember REDMAP 2010’.
 

Perotista

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Enjoy 😊 your special weekend at the Wat. Enjoy your Braves next week.

If you could please post a reply with an update to your September posting/blogging to me or another poster or yourself when you get time, I’d be very appreciative.

I’d certainly engage with you, as I’m sure others would, such as your GA having two Senate runoffs in Jan. to possibly determine the Senate. This way, the blog keeps going.

I’ll be checking back for a reply. I’m struggling with the new format. ‘Remember REDMAP 2010’.
You bet, I'll let you know one way or another
 

Linc

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Just keep me advised.
Kicking this forward, lots of action in the group of Senate races in your neighborhood. And your Braves start their series Tuesday.
 

Perotista

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Democrats have made a major move in the Kansas Senate race.
Kansas is very close which it shouldn't be. But Kansas being Kansas, Marshall will pull it out. South Carolina is the big surprise for me. I'd give Harrison a larger chance of pulling the upset for the Democrats than in Kansas. Mainly because of the huge black vote in South Carolina where Kansas doesn't have that.

I suspect that 2020 is going to be a banner year for Democrats. Trump hurt himself immensely in the debate coming across as the third grade schoolyard bully. Independents are now leaning toward Biden. With the Republican Party the smaller of the two major parties, they must win independents by around 5 points or lose the election. All Biden has to do is keep them close, not win them. He's doing that. Although I haven't delved or started my 1 Oct forecast, there is a feeling it's almost a sure thing, as of today anyway, the Democrats win back the senate. Arizona, Colorado, Maine, North Carolina, Iowa seem set to go Democratic, South Carolina very well could, either one or both of Georgia's could also. Montana is very close.

Trump has become the albatross around the GOP's neck,. It also looks like the Democrats will gain 5-10 seats in the house. This is as of today, not in November. If the election were held today, the Democrats could come close to the numbers of 1964. They'll be able to do pretty much anything they want. But I will add the caveat of being careful not to over reach as they did in 2009/10. The people want Trump gone, they don't necessarily want the Democrats in full charge. That's two different things. The Democratic Party is still viewed unfavorably by 54% if all Americans, 56% view the GOP unfavorably. Questions 98A and 98B


I will make one prediction, if the Democrats view this election other than one where the people want to be rid of Trump. If they take this election as a mandate for their policies which it isn't, they'll lose the house in 2022 and maybe the presidency in 2024. This election is all about getting rid of Trump, not putting the Democrats in charge. People don't like the Democrats anymore than they like the Republicans. There's plenty of reasons for that, but I'll not get into them as that might make this a book.
 

Linc

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Kansas is very close which it shouldn't be. But Kansas being Kansas, Marshall will pull it out. South Carolina is the big surprise for me. I'd give Harrison a larger chance of pulling the upset for the Democrats than in Kansas. Mainly because of the huge black vote in South Carolina where Kansas doesn't have that.

I suspect that 2020 is going to be a banner year for Democrats. Trump hurt himself immensely in the debate coming across as the third grade schoolyard bully. Independents are now leaning toward Biden. With the Republican Party the smaller of the two major parties, they must win independents by around 5 points or lose the election. All Biden has to do is keep them close, not win them. He's doing that. Although I haven't delved or started my 1 Oct forecast, there is a feeling it's almost a sure thing, as of today anyway, the Democrats win back the senate. Arizona, Colorado, Maine, North Carolina, Iowa seem set to go Democratic, South Carolina very well could, either one or both of Georgia's could also. Montana is very close.

Trump has become the albatross around the GOP's neck,. It also looks like the Democrats will gain 5-10 seats in the house. This is as of today, not in November. If the election were held today, the Democrats could come close to the numbers of 1964. They'll be able to do pretty much anything they want. But I will add the caveat of being careful not to over reach as they did in 2009/10. The people want Trump gone, they don't necessarily want the Democrats in full charge. That's two different things. The Democratic Party is still viewed unfavorably by 54% if all Americans, 56% view the GOP unfavorably. Questions 98A and 98B


I will make one prediction, if the Democrats view this election other than one where the people want to be rid of Trump. If they take this election as a mandate for their policies which it isn't, they'll lose the house in 2022 and maybe the presidency in 2024. This election is all about getting rid of Trump, not putting the Democrats in charge. People don't like the Democrats anymore than they like the Republicans. There's plenty of reasons for that, but I'll not get into them as that might make this a book.
1. The two Georgia Senate races going to runoffs which may determine control of the Senate. Who will be the two candidates in the special? It looks like the Libertarian will push Perdue and Ossoff to a runoff based on your Georgia law in the other Senate race.

2. Montana hasn’t flipped yet overall for POTUS but term-limited Governor Bullock has a shot at Sen. Daines. D’s are probably going to lose the Governor’s seat they’ve had for 16 straight years.

3. The SCOTUS just ruled on South Carolina mail-in ballots. SC also has a big House race that D’s could lose. (Braves take a 7-4 lead) The SCOTUS May also rule on this Purcell thing. Four weeks of unknowns every day without knowing if we have every winner on November 4th.

4. 9-4 Braves — look forward to your responses as mini-blogs. How did your weekend go?
 

Perotista

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1. The two Georgia Senate races going to runoffs which may determine control of the Senate. Who will be the two candidates in the special? It looks like the Libertarian will push Perdue and Ossoff to a runoff based on your Georgia law in the other Senate race.

2. Montana hasn’t flipped yet overall for POTUS but term-limited Governor Bullock has a shot at Sen. Daines. D’s are probably going to lose the Governor’s seat they’ve had for 16 straight years.

3. The SCOTUS just ruled on South Carolina mail-in ballots. SC also has a big House race that D’s could lose. (Braves take a 7-4 lead) The SCOTUS May also rule on this Purcell thing. Four weeks of unknowns every day without knowing if we have every winner on November 4th.

4. 9-4 Braves — look forward to your responses as mini-blogs. How did your weekend go?
I agree that there is an excellent chance of both senate races here in Georgia going to a runoff. The special will, Purdue/Ossoff is real close. Montana is so tight, they do have a history of electing Democratic senators. I wouldn’t be surprised if they did so again this year. But for the time being, I’m keeping Montana red.



The South Carolina ruling is interesting. When in the military voting overseas, you must obtain an officer’s signature along with yours. I suppose the officer serves as a witness or as a certifier. Most folks don’t know that. Here in Georgia all you have to do is sign the oath on the outside of the first mail in envelope.



Yep, Braves win game one, two more to go. Miami is tough. Mattingly has them playing way above their talent. Fried didn’t pitch like fried, but the won. Now probably Anderson in game two and then who knows. Losing Keuchel and having Soroca go down really hurt the Braves starting pitching. Great bullpen though. So we’ll see.



Still no word on when the blogs will return. Hopefully before the election. That too is up in the air. The weekend went great, beautiful. The wife and me loved it. Now it’s recuperating time.
 

azgreg

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Kelly/McSally debate tonight. Rumor has it McSally ahs a surprise drop tonight.
 

azgreg

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I agree that there is an excellent chance of both senate races here in Georgia going to a runoff. The special will, Purdue/Ossoff is real close. Montana is so tight, they do have a history of electing Democratic senators. I wouldn’t be surprised if they did so again this year. But for the time being, I’m keeping Montana red.



The South Carolina ruling is interesting. When in the military voting overseas, you must obtain an officer’s signature along with yours. I suppose the officer serves as a witness or as a certifier. Most folks don’t know that. Here in Georgia all you have to do is sign the oath on the outside of the first mail in envelope.



Yep, Braves win game one, two more to go. Miami is tough. Mattingly has them playing way above their talent. Fried didn’t pitch like fried, but the won. Now probably Anderson in game two and then who knows. Losing Keuchel and having Soroca go down really hurt the Braves starting pitching. Great bullpen though. So we’ll see.



Still no word on when the blogs will return. Hopefully before the election. That too is up in the air. The weekend went great, beautiful. The wife and me loved it. Now it’s recuperating time.
Anything new lately?!
 

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Can't believe I just discovered this. Excellent OP, hoping for an update, it being the 25th. On a side note, people are simply not paying enough attention, once again, to state houses, and governor's mansions and I am including the DNC and the media in this criticism. have not seen a single article or a single post on this or any other Political forum site I frequent. I would have thought Tom Delay's work in 'redistricting' Texas decades ago would have taught us all that these state legislatures and governors races can directly impact federal governance for generations. Frankly an argument can be made that the only legislative bodies that work anymore at all, are State and local legislatures.
 
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