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PEROTISTA’S 2020 Monthly SENATE, HOUSE and Presidency FORECAST 1 July 2020

Perotista

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PEROTISTA’S 2020 Monthly SENATE, HOUSE and Presidency FORECAST 1 July 2020

Currently there are 53 Republicans and 47 Democrats in the Current Senate. There are 12 Democratic seats up for re-election vs. 23 for the Republicans.

Safe Democratic seats 11: Delaware, Illinois, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire, New Mexico, New Jersey, Oregon, Rhode Island, Virginia.

Democratic at-risk seats of switching 1: Alabama

Safe Republican seats 12: Alaska, Arkansas, Idaho, Louisiana, Mississippi, Nebraska, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Texas, West Virginia, Wyoming.

The Republicans have 11 at risk seats of switching this election cycle, Arizona, Colorado, Georgia 1, Georgia 2, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Maine, Montana, North Carolina, Tennessee.

Arizona McSally R – This race is set between Republican McSally and Democrat Mark Kelly. All opponents to both have withdrawn. Kelly has a huge lead in the polls, it seems at this point Kelly is a cinch. Democratic Gain R 52 D 48

Alabama Jones D – Jeff Sessions and Tommy Tuberville advanced to a runoff on the Republican side which was delayed until July. Tuberville is the favorite. Tuberville will replace Jones in November. Republican pick up. R 53 D 47

Colorado Gardner R – Former Democratic Governor John Hickenlooper defeated Andrew Romanoff in the Democratic Primary and will face incumbent Gardner in November. Hickenlooper will easily defeat Gardner. Democratic pickup. R 52 D 48

Georgia Perdue R – Jon Ossoff has won the Democratic primary and will face incumbent Perdue in November. This is one tight race. A pure tossup at this point. I’ll stick with the incumbent Perdue to win a very close one which might involve a runoff depending on the Libertarian candidate. Shane Hazel, the Libertarian is pulling 5% of the vote. Because of this, I’m tempted to pick Ossoff over Perdue, but won’t. At least for this month. Republican hold. R 52 D 48

Georgia Special Open R – Governor Kemp appointed Kelly Loeffler to replace Isakson who left the senate for health reasons. Being this is a special election, there will be no primary for this seat. All 21 declared candidates will be placed on the November ballot. If no candidate receives 50% plus one vote, there will be a runoff between the top two vote getters. We won’t know who wins this seat until after the runoff scheduled for 5 Jan 2021. Loffler and Collins are the top Republicans vying for this seat, Matt Lieberman and Raphael Warnock are the top two Democrats. Collins, Liberman, Loffler and Warnock are the top four in the polls with Collins at 34% and the other three in the high teens. Everyone else in single digits. All the November election will do is determine who will face Collins in the January runoff. The odds for the runoff in January 2021 are that it will be Collins vs. Warnock. Collins wins. Republican Hold. R 52 D 48.

Iowa Ernst R – Democrat Theresa Greenfield has won the right to face Joni Ernst in November. This is another very tight race. Since Trump has fallen behind Biden in Iowa, I’m going with Greenfield to defeat Ernst. Iowa is trending Democratic. Democratic Gain. R 51 D 49

Kansas Open R – Roberts decided not to run for a fifth term. 2 Democrats and 11 Republicans are vying for their party’s nomination for this open seat. Republican Kris Kobach is the favorite to win the GOP nomination with Barbara Bollier winning on the Democratic side. This should be a cake walk for the Republican, but the polls put this as a very close race. I’m sticking with the Republican to win this seat. Only because this is Kansas. Republican hold. R 51 D 49

Kentucky McConnell R – McConnell easily won his primary, McGrath barely edged out Booker on the Democratic side. McConnell always seems to find a way to win, thus he will retain his seat. Republican hold R 51 D 49

Maine Collins R – Sara Gideon will win the Democratic Primary for the rights to challenge Collins in November. Gideon will keep right on winning. Democratic pick up R 50 D 50

Montana Daines R – Former Democratic Governor Steve Bullock vs. Republican incumbent Steve Daines in November. Bullock has pulled out to a 5-point lead in the most recent polls. He’ll flip this seat from red to blue in November. Democratic gain R 49 D 51

North Carolina Tillis R – Democrat Cal Cunningham has taken a slight lead in the 4 recent polls which is enough for me to switch North Carolina from Tillis to Cunningham. It’s also worth noting that Biden now leads Trump by 3 points in North Carolina which is another reason I’m going with Cunningham this month. Democratic Gain R 48 D 52.

Tennessee Open R – Alexander is not running for reelection. 15 Republicans are vying for Alexander’s seat along with 5 Democrats. I’m not about to predict who the nominees will be for November. Who the nominees are doesn’t matter as the Republican wins. Republican hold. R 48 D 52

I switched both Iowa and North Carolina from a Republican hold to a Democratic gain this month. Meaning the Democrats win back control of the senate by a 52-48 margin. With both Georgia seats and Kansas being so close that you couldn’t place a sheet of paper between the candidates, there is the possibility of the Democrats picking up a net gain of 8 seats. Although 5 seems the right number this month.

House of Representatives

Currently the House of Representative consists of 235 Democrats, 199 Republicans, 1 independent. The Republicans need a net gain of 19 seats to win back the house. They’ll be lucky if they don’t lose any seats. The Democrats have 27 competitive/at risk seats of switching parties, same as last month. The Republicans have 23, up five from last month. The Democrats will have a net gain of one seat, this is the first month where I see the Democrats being on the plus side of the equation. The new House will have 236 Democrats, 199 Republicans.

Presidency

Once more this month, there were two state changes in the Biden vs. Trump presidential Race. Popular vote, Biden gained 1.2 points, Trump lost 1.8 point to where it is Biden 49.5%, Trump 40.1%. The two state changes, both favored Joe Biden. North Carolina and Ohio went from Trump last month to Biden this month. The final electoral college tally for this month is Biden 352, Trump 186. Trump is taking a big hit on his handling of the coronavirus pandemic and race relations while the economy tanks. This isn’t the end of the bad news for Trump, Both Georgia and Texas have moved basically into a tie between Trump and Biden. I didn’t switch them this month due to both states voting history of going Republican. Trump is in deep doo doo to use an old G.H.W. Bush phrase. The trend is all against him. Unless Trump can find a way to reverse the present trend, he’s a goner. He has but four months left to find that key to the trend reversal. Not much time, throw in the fact Trump is looking in all the wrong places for that key.

History
2019
December Senate 49 D 51 R, House 231 D, 204 R
Presidency Generic Democrat 50.8% Trump 46,5%, Electoral College Generic Democrat 334 Trump 204

2020
January Senate 49 D, 51 R, House 228 D, 207 R
Presidency Generic Democrat 50.1% Trump 46.1%, Electoral College Generic Democrat 323 Trump 215
February Senate 48 D, 52 R, House 230 D, 205 R
Presidency Generic Democrat 49.5%, Trump 46.4%, Electoral College Generic Democrat 323 Trump 215
March Senate 49 D, 51 R, House 230 D, 205 R
Presidency Generic Democrat 49.7%, Trump 46.3%, Electoral College Generic Democrat 309 Trump 229
April Senate 50 D, 50 R, House 231 D, 204 R
Presidency Biden 49.6%, Trump 45.3%, Electoral College Biden 308 Trump 230
May Senate 50 D, 50 R, House 231 D, 204 R
Presidency Biden 48.3%, Trump 42.4%, Electoral College, Biden 330 Trump 208
June Senate 50 D, 50 R, House 232 D, 203 R
Presidency Biden 48.4%, Trump 42.9%, Electoral College, Biden 319 Trump 219
July Senate 52 D, 48 R, House 236 D, 199 R
Presidency Biden 49.5%, Trump 40.1%, Electoral College, Biden 352, Trump 186
 

nota bene

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Looks bleak at this point for the GOP, doesn't it, Pero?
 

tres borrachos

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Wow, Pero. Brilliant analysis as always. It's been interesting watching the change month over month. Thank you as always for your hard work.
 

Perotista

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nota bene;bt5191 said:
Looks bleak at this point for the GOP, doesn't it, Pero?
It does, but I always like to remind folks, it's early. The trend this last month has been all Democratic. If it continues, Trump doesn't find a way to reverse it, I wouldn't be surprise if Biden wins Georgia and Texas along with Georgia's two senate seats up this cycle.

What this indicates is the midterms were no fluke. Independents are deserting Trump, which he has never courted or has tried to expand his base.
 

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tres borrachos;bt5192 said:
Wow, Pero. Brilliant analysis as always. It's been interesting watching the change month over month. Thank you as always for your hard work.
The changes is what makes it interesting. To watch how people change their voting habits one at a time, slowly, usually. Then a big bang like this month. Which that big bang may not be over.
 

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Thanks Perotista. Great work. The number 40 keeps showing up in various Trump metrics, and the election simply cannot be won with 40% approval.
 

Perotista

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Michael Cole;bt5199 said:
Thanks Perotista. Great work. The number 40 keeps showing up in various Trump metrics, and the election simply cannot be won with 40% approval.
You know, I never noticed that. 40% approval, 40% of the vote against Biden. 42% favorable/55% unfavorable. Question 88A, Thanks for pointing that out.
 

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Perotista;bt5201 said:
…..
Here's 16 Senate seats. as I like to expand the map, as you'll recall.
It's done with the probability of Team Red winning the seat.

(TX > KY > G-1 > GA-2 > AL) (> KS > SC > IA > ME > NC > MT) > (CO > AZ > MI > MN > NH)
In a 50/50 election, the 5 on the left go Red, the five on the right go blue, and the 6 in the middle look like leans and toss-ups to me.

In 2016, I feel GOP Senators carried Trump. In 2020, it's currently Trump dragging them down.
This is the class of 2014, where D's went 12-9 and R's went 15-0. Ouch. Nice follow-up to REDMAP 2010.
 

Perotista

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Linc;bt5202 said:
Here's 16 Senate seats. as I like to expand the map, as you'll recall.
It's done with the probability of Team Red winning the seat.

(TX > KY > G-1 > GA-2 > AL) (> KS > SC > IA > ME > NC > MT) > (CO > AZ > MI > MN > NH)
In a 50/50 election, the 5 on the left go Red, the five on the right go blue, and the 6 in the middle look like leans and toss-ups to me.

In 2016, I feel GOP Senators carried Trump. In 2020, it's currently Trump dragging them down.
This is the class of 2014, where D's went 12-9 and R's went 15-0. Ouch. Nice follow-up to REDMAP 2010.
There's no doubt the GOP is in trouble, senate wise as presidential as well. Our two seats in Georgia are basically tossups. Georgia is going back to being a swing state. It was solid Democrat until the 90's, then swing throughout that decade, the solid GOP from 2002 until I think this year. There's the real possibility Georgia will remain a swing state for a couple of election cycles, then go back to being solid Democratic where it was from the end of the Civil War until the 1990's. The writing is on the wall.
 

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I’m really surprised to see you rate your Senate races as toss-ups. I’ve got them behind South Carolina. I’ve moved MT to be = to NC for a flip, and moved IA ahead of ME for a flip.

You may have seen where both Toomey, up in 2022, and Romney both broke with Trump on a Roger Stone. It’s like Trumpniz trying to lose, with each new day’s actions.

I’m on South Korea time now. Today was Australian foot—ball and now watching KBO. USA Soccer earlier. We’ll see on MLBaseball. They’re 13 hours ahead of you as you’re well aware.

I’m breaking the House down into important states. I will say there’s a group of iffy Democrats from small states and Trump CDs I’m tossing into one bundle as to which party will win overall as an idea. OK-05, SC-01, NM-02, UT-04, ME-02,

Especially CA, TX, NJ, and NY are huge. PA, IA, MN, IL, have more than two each. 2nd rain delay on E$PN for KBO.
 

imagep

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Linc;bt5202 said:
Here's 16 Senate seats. as I like to expand the map, as you'll recall.
It's done with the probability of Team Red winning the seat.

(TX > KY > G-1 > GA-2 > AL) (> KS > SC > IA > ME > NC > MT) > (CO > AZ > MI > MN > NH)
In a 50/50 election, the 5 on the left go Red, the five on the right go blue, and the 6 in the middle look like leans and toss-ups to me.

In 2016, I feel GOP Senators carried Trump. In 2020, it's currently Trump dragging them down.
This is the class of 2014, where D's went 12-9 and R's went 15-0. Ouch. Nice follow-up to REDMAP 2010.
Graham in SC is definitely more vulnerable than most people think he is. Republicans don't seem to like Graham very much and he only keeps winning because he hasn't had a strong challenger. This time he has a very strong challenger who knows the political game very well although he hasn't held elected office before. There hasn't been a recent poll, but the last poll, back in late April shows a tie, with Graham losing 5% of his voters from the previous poll a month earlier. Since then, I think that Trump has lost some of his appeal with swing voters and he is unlikely to have much of a coattail.
 

Perotista

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Linc;bt5206 said:
I’m really surprised to see you rate your Senate races as toss-ups. I’ve got them behind South Carolina. I’ve moved MT to be = to NC for a flip, and moved IA ahead of ME for a flip.

You may have seen where both Toomey, up in 2022, and Romney both broke with Trump on a Roger Stone. It’s like Trumpniz trying to lose, with each new day’s actions.

I’m on South Korea time now. Today was Australian foot—ball and now watching KBO. USA Soccer earlier. We’ll see on MLBaseball. They’re 13 hours ahead of you as you’re well aware.

I’m breaking the House down into important states. I will say there’s a group of iffy Democrats from small states and Trump CDs I’m tossing into one bundle as to which party will win overall as an idea. OK-05, SC-01, NM-02, UT-04, ME-02,

Especially CA, TX, NJ, and NY are huge. PA, IA, MN, IL, have more than two each. 2nd rain delay on E$PN for KBO.
I go by the numbers and the numbers tell me both Georgia seats are pure tossups at this point. That could change, I'll take another look for the 1 August forecast. Biden has taken a one point lead in Georgia over Trump. I think folks hadn't paid much attention that Obama came within 5 points of Romney down here and Hillary also lost by 5 points. Abrams came within a point of winning the governor's office. Trump has also fallen to a 45% approval vs. 49% disapproval here in Georgia.

I wouldn't be a bit surprised to see Biden win Georgia and the democrats pick up both senate seats. As for the House, I go by the number of competitive seats each party has, I never look at the generic congressional poll. That nationwide and not district by district. Right now the Democrats have a few more competitive, at risk seats than the GOP. That's why I basically said the House is a wash at this time. That certainly could change.
 

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imagep;bt5208 said:
Graham in SC is definitely more vulnerable than most people think he is. Republicans don't seem to like Graham very much and he only keeps winning because he hasn't had a strong challenger. This time he has a very strong challenger who knows the political game very well although he hasn't held elected office before. There hasn't been a recent poll, but the last poll, back in late April shows a tie, with Graham losing 5% of his voters from the previous poll a month earlier. Since then, I think that Trump has lost some of his appeal with swing voters and he is unlikely to have much of a coattail.
I haven't given South Carolina a single thought. Perhaps I should.
 
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