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PEROTISTA’S 2020 Monthly SENATE, HOUSE and Presidency FORECAST 1 April 2020

Perotista

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PEROTISTA’S 2020 Monthly SENATE, HOUSE and Presidency FORECAST 1 April 2020

Currently there are 53 Republicans and 47 Democrats in the Current Senate. There are 12 Democratic seats up for re-election vs. 23 for the Republicans.

Safe Democratic seats 10: Delaware, Illinois, Massachusetts, Minnesota, New Hampshire, New Mexico, New Jersey, Oregon, Rhode Island, Virginia.

Democratic at-risk seats of switching 2: Alabama, Michigan.

Safe Republican seats 12: Alaska, Arkansas, Idaho, Louisiana, Mississippi, Nebraska, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Texas, West Virginia, Wyoming.

The Republicans have 11 at risk seats of switching this election cycle, Arizona, Colorado, Georgia 1, Georgia 2, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Maine, Montana, North Carolina, Tennessee.

Arizona McSally R – McSally has 2 Republican challengers for her seat. None have a chance of unseating her. On the Democratic side, former Astronaut Mark Kelly will be McSally’s opponent in November. He’ll win. Democratic Gain R 52 D 48

Alabama Jones D – Jeff Sessions and Tommy Tuberville advanced to a runoff on the Republican side scheduled in July. Tuberville is a very slight favorite. Jones ceded any chance of reelection when he voted Guilty in Trump’s senate trial. Trump has a 65% approval rating in Alabama. Republican pick up. R 53 D 47

Colorado Gardner R – Former Governor John Hickenlooper is polling 60% of the primary vote and will easily defeat 6 other Democratic challengers to take on and waltz to a win over Republican Cory Gardner. Democratic pickup. R 52 D 48

Georgia Perdue R – 8 Democrats have declared to challenge Perdue. Jon Ossoff should come out the winner, although he might need a runoff to do so. Perdue will defeat Ossoff in the general. Republican hold. R 52 D 48

Georgia Special Open R – Governor Kemp appointed Kelly Loeffler to replace Isakson who left the senate for health reasons. Being this is a special election, there will be no primaries for this seat. All declared candidates will be placed on the November ballot. If no candidate receives 50% plus one vote, there will be a runoff between the top two vote getters. We won’t know who wins this seat until after the runoff scheduled for 5 Jan 2021. Loffler and Collins are the top Republicans vying for this seat, Matt Lieberman the top Democrat along 12 others who will all appear on the November ballot. Chances are Liberman will be the top vote getter in November but will face Doug Collins, the second-place finisher in January due to each not even coming close to the required 50%. Both in the 30% range is likely. Nothing will be sorted out in this race until after the November general election. Collins wins the runoff in January 2021. Republican Hold. R 52 D 48.

Iowa Ernst R – 4 Democrats are in the race for the democratic nomination to challenge Ernst. Ernst will win. Republican hold. R 52 D 48

Kansas Open R – Roberts decided not to run for a fifth term. 3 Democrats and 6 Republicans are vying for their party’s nomination for this open seat. It doesn’t matter who is either the Republican or the Democratic candidates, the Republicans wins in November. Republican hold. R 52 D 48

Kentucky McConnell R – There are now 7 Republicans challenging McConnell for the GOP nomination. A bad sign for Mitch as many Republicans thinks he is very vulnerable. 10 Democrats are vying for the right to challenge McConnell in November with McGrath the heavy favorite to win the democratic nomination. Lots of uncertainties here. McConnell has a 50-50 short of surviving the GOP primary. If he does, he also is no better than 50-50 vs. Democrat McGrath. Against the odds, McConnell always finds a way to win. Republican hold 52 R 48 D

Maine Collins R – I’ve decided that even with ranked Choice voting in Maine, Democrat Susan Gideon will defeat Collins. Democratic pick up 51 R 49 D

Michigan Peters D – Only two GOP challengers have declared to challenge Peters. John James should be that Republican. Surprisingly in the latest March poll, James is trailing Peters by a single point. That won’t last as Peters should win going away. Democratic hold 51 R 49 D

Montana Daines R - With Democratic Governor Steve Bullock deciding to challenge incumbent Steve Daines for his senate seat, I’ve added Montana to my watch list. Montana has a habit of going GOP in presidential elections by 20, 30 or more points. But likes to elect Democrats to the senate and governorship. The popular Governor will defeat Daines by a very narrow margin. Democratic gain R 50 D 50

North Carolina Tillis R – It will be Tillis vs Cal Cunningham in November. This is a pure tossup race. But I’m sticking with the incumbent in a race that probably will be decided by a percentage point or two. Republican hold 50 R, 50 D.

Tennessee Open R – Alexander is not running for reelection. 6 Republicans are vying for Alexander’s seat along with 4 Democrats. Tennessee will stay Republican regardless of who the candidates are. As soon as I know who vs. who, I’ll drop Tennessee off my watch list into the safe Republican column. Republican hold. R 50 D 50

I’ve added Montana to my watch list due to Governor Bullock entering the race to challenge Republican incumbent Steve Daines. His entrance makes all the difference as it switched Montana from safe Republican to a Democratic gain. All other races remain the same from last month. This brings the senate into a 50-50 tie. Who controls the senate will be decided by who wins the presidency? The Vice President will cast the deciding vote in case of a tie.

House of Representatives

Currently the House of Representative consists of 235 Democrats, 199 Republicans, 1 independent. The Republicans need a net gain of 19 seats to win back the house. No way. The Democrats have 30 competitive/at risk seats of switching parties, up one from last Month. The Republicans have 18, also up one from last month. The Republicans will have a net gain of 5 seats, down one from March. This leaves the House having 231 Democrats, 204 Republicans. The Democrats win MI-3, Amish’s seat who is the only independent in the House.

Presidency

I’ve dropped the generic Democrat and am now pitting Joe Biden against Donald Trump. Popular vote, Biden 49.6% Trump 45.3%. Electoral College, I’m calling all 50 states this month. The changes, Wisconsin and Ohio which was going to Trump last month is now in the Biden column. Florida which I deemed too close to call, is now in the Trump column. The final electoral college tally for this month is Biden 308, Trump 230. Stay tuned, Trump is getting good marks for his handling of the Corona Virus which hasn’t shown up in the state polls yet. There might, could be some big changes next month. Time will tell.

History
2019
December Senate 49 D 51 R, House 231 D, 204 R
Presidency Generic Democrat 50.8% Trump 46,5%, Electoral College Generic Democrat 334 Trump 204

2020
January Senate 49 D, 51 R, House 228 D, 207 R
Presidency Generic Democrat 50.1% Trump 46.1%, Electoral College Generic Democrat 323 Trump 215
February Senate 48 D, 52 R, House 230 D, 205 R
Presidency Generic Democrat 49.5%, Trump 46.4%, Electoral College Generic Democrat 323 Trump 215
March Senate 49 D, 51 R, House 230 D, 205 R
Presidency Generic Democrat 49.7%, Trump 46.3%, Electoral College Generic Democrat 309 Trump 229
April Senate 50 D, 50 R, House 231 D, 204 R
Presidency Biden 49.6%, Trump 45.3%, Electoral College Biden 308 Trump 230
 

Trippy Trekker

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For those of you interested in data-based federal level election forecasts, I highly recommend using Perotista's monthly Forecast Reports!

No one on this site, IMO, provides a more easy-to-use, highly accurate comprehensive analysis of upcoming House, Senate and Presidential elections.

Perotista's thorough research, lifetime disdain for the American two major party system and status as an unabashed, non-partisan Independent adds significant credibility to his monthly forecasts!

Thank you Perotista for the incredible value you add to the DP Forum!
 
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