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It's very, very early. Expect a lot of changes between now and November of 2018. But here is the first forecast on next year's midterms.


Currently there are 52 Republicans and 48 Democrats in the Current Senate. There are 25 Democratic seats up for re-election vs. 8 for the Republicans.

Safe Democratic seats 13: California, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Maryland, Massachusetts, Minnesota, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Rhode Island, Vermont, Washington.

Non-competitive Democratic seats at this time, but could become so at some time in the future 6: Maine, Michigan, Montana, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Wisconsin.

Democratic at-risk seats 6: Florida, Indiana, Missouri, Ohio, North Dakota, West Virginia.

Safe Republican seats 6: Mississippi, Nebraska, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Wyoming

The Republicans have no non-competitive seats that may become competitive at some time in the future.

The Republicans have 2 at risk seats this election cycle, Arizona, Nevada.

Arizona Flake R – Flake is being challenged by 3 Republican opponents so far for his seat. Only one seems able to unseat Flake, Kelli Ward. Keep an eye on Ward, she is the early favorite to do exactly that. Regardless, Arizona is ripe to switch parties and I think it will be sending a Democratic to Washington in January of 2019. Democratic gain R 51 D 49

Florida Nelson D – The big question, will Governor Scott challenge Nelson for his senate seat next year. Florida Republicans think so. If Scott does challenge Nelson, the GOP has a 50-50 shot of picking up this seat. If not, Nelson wins. Democratic hold R 51 D 49

Indiana – Donnelly D – 6 Republicans have declared their candidacy to challenge Donnelly with more to come. Republicans think Donnelly can be defeated as do I. But that depends on choosing the right candidate. Until that happens, I will keep Indiana as a Democratic Hold R 51 D 49

Missouri McCaskill D – McCaskill will be challenged in the Democratic Primary by Angelica Earl. There are now 4 declared Republican candidates to challenge McCaskill with more on the way. This should be a seat the GOP picks up. But six years ago, McCaskill looked like a dead duck until the Republicans went with Aiken. McCaskill won easily. Will the GOP make the same mistake this time around? Until and if the Republicans do, I am putting Missouri as a Republican gain. R 52 D 48

Nevada Heller R –Heller has become very unpopular in Nevada. There are 4 declared Democratic challengers and probably 4 more Democrats will throw their hat in the ring to challenge him. That is if Heller survives the Republican primary as he is being challenged by Danny Tarkanian who led Heller in an August poll by 6 points. It doesn’t matter whom the GOP nominates, Nevada will be a Democratic gain. R 51 D 49

Ohio Brown D – There are 4 declared Republican candidates to challenge Brown with a 5th one probable. Brown at this point doesn’t face a challenger for his seat in the Democratic Primary. That fact and incumbency should be enough for Brown to win a close race. Democratic hold. R 51 D 49

North Dakota Heitkamp D – Heitkamp will face one Democratic challenger for her seat, but so far that looks like only a token challenge. On the GOP side Tom Campbell is the only declared candidate. But there are six or seven more potential candidates for the Republican nomination. Like Brown in Ohio, I’m looking at incumbency to carry Heitkamp to a close victory. Democratic Hold R 51 D 49

West Virginia Manchin D -Manchin is another sitting senator who will receive token opposition in the Democratic Primary. Nothing to worry about for Joe. On the GOP side there are now 5 declared candidate with another 3 about to jump into ring. Even so, I don’t see any of those defeating Manchin next year. Manchin was a very popular Governor and now is a popular senator. Democratic hold R 51 D 49

Unless something drastically changes, the Republicans will be blowing a golden opportunity to pick up 4 or 5 seats. Considering the Democrats have 25 seats up for re-election vs. 8 for the GOP, losing one net seat even though the GOP will maintain control of the senate is in my opinion, is a massive defeat for the Republicans.

House of Representatives

Currently the House of Representative consists of 241 Republicans and 194 Democrats. For 2018 the Republicans have 33 seats at risk of switching parties to 9 for the Democrats. The Democrats need to gain 24 seats to take over control of the House. They have a 50-50 shot of doing just that. But I’m pegging the net gain for the Democrats at 20 seats. Just shy of what is needed. The new House will have 221 Republicans to 214 Democrats.
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