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PEROTISTA’S 2018 SENATE and HOUSE FORECAST November 2017

PEROTISTA’S 2018 SENATE and HOUSE FORECAST November 2017

Currently there are 52 Republicans and 48 Democrats in the Current Senate. There are 25 Democratic seats up for re-election vs. 8 for the Republicans.

Safe Democratic seats 13: California, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Maryland, Massachusetts, Minnesota, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Rhode Island, Vermont, Washington.

Non-competitive Democratic seats at this time, but could become so at some time in the future 6: Maine, Michigan, Montana, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Wisconsin.

Democratic at-risk seats 6: Florida, Indiana, Missouri, Ohio, North Dakota, West Virginia.

Safe Republican seats 6: Mississippi, Nebraska, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Wyoming

The Republicans have no non-competitive seats that may become competitive at some time in the future.

The Republicans have 2 at risk seats this election cycle, Arizona, Nevada.

Arizona Flake R – Flake has withdrew. His withdrawal has made Kelli Ward the favorite to win the GOP nomination. Martha McSally may challenge her, but at this point it looks like the nomination is Ward’s to lose. There’s six candidates at the moment vying for the Democratic nomination. Kyrsten Sinema is the odds on favorite to face Ward next November. I’m going with Sinema this month. Democratic gain R 51 D 49

Florida Nelson D – The big question remains the same as last month, will Governor Scott challenge Nelson for his senate seat next year? If Scott does challenge Nelson, the GOP has a 50-50 shot of picking up this seat. If not, Nelson wins. Democratic hold R 51 D 49

Indiana – Donnelly D – 6 Republicans have declared their candidacy to challenge Donnelly with more to come. The top two are Todd Rokita and Luke Messer. It looks like these two will fight it out for the GOP nomination. I’m not sure either one can defeat Donnelly. Democratic Hold R 51 D 49

Missouri McCaskill D – McCaskill has a 46% approval rating in Missouri. Republicans think this makes her vulnerable. Four Republicans have declared their candidacy to challenge McCaskill. There will be more to come. One must remember that six years ago, McCaskill looked like a dead duck until the Republicans chose Aiken to oppose her. McCaskill won easily. Will the GOP make the same mistake this time around? If and until the Republicans make the mistake of nominating another Aiken, I’m listing Missouri as a Republican gain. R 52 D 48

Nevada Heller R –Heller is being challenged by Danny Tarkanian who has the early lead in the polls for the GOP nomination. There are 4 declared Democratic challengers for Heller’s seat and most likely 4 more Democrats will enter the race to challenge Heller. That is if Heller wins the Republican nomination. Heller or Tarkanian, I don’t think it matters who wins on the Republican side. Nevada will be a Democratic gain. R 51 D 49

Ohio Brown D – There are 4 declared Republican candidates to challenge Brown. Josh Mandel is the heavy favorite to win the GOP nomination. Brown doesn’t face a challenger for his seat in the Democratic Primary. Brown should win a very close race. Democratic hold. R 51 D 49

North Dakota Heitkamp D – Heitkamp will have a token Democratic challenger for her seat, not a problem. On the GOP side state representative Tom Campbell is the only declared candidate. But there are an additional eight potential candidates for the Republican nomination. Heitkamp in a very close race. Democratic Hold R 51 D 49

West Virginia Manchin D -Manchin is another sitting senator who will receive token opposition in the Democratic Primary. Nothing to worry about for Joe. On the GOP side there are 5 declared candidate with the potential of three more. Manchin will win easily. Democratic hold R 51 D 49

No change from last month. Considering the Democrats have 25 seats up for re-election vs. 8 for the GOP, it’s almost impossible for me to envision the Republicans having a net loss of one seat. That goes against all odds. But that is the way I am calling it. Now stay tuned, there is a very long way to go and changes will occur.



House of Representatives

Currently the House of Representative consists of 241 Republicans and 194 Democrats. For 2018 the Republicans have 36 seats at risk of switching parties to 9 for the Democrats. 3 additional seats has been added to the Republican at risk total since last month. The Democrats need a net gain of 24 seats to take over control of the House. They will fall just short. Even though the Republicans added 3 additional seats to their at risk seat column, I’m staying with the same 20 seat gain for the Democrats I had them at last month. The new House will have 221 Republicans to 214 Democrats.

History
2017
October Senate 51 R 49 D, House 221 R 214 D
 

polgara

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Thanks, Pero, for all the work you do for us! :kissy:
 

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I haven't paid it much attention, concentrating on next years midterms. Especially the house races. Alabama is Alabama. Outside of that, there has been no polls taken for two weeks which makes those taken in the first 3 weeks of October kind of useless. In those five or so polls taken the first three weeks of October Moore led Jones from 5-11 points depending on the poll with a margin of error of plus or minus 4 points. So that race might be basically tied or Moore is ahead by as many as 15.

I think with all polls showing Moore ahead, he is. Probably fairly comfortable. By that I mean by 5 plus points. Even living in Georgia, next door. There's been nothing coming out of Alabama. The Governors races in Virginia and New Jersey has been all over the news, Alabama has been quiet.
 

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I highly doubt Jones will. But if Jones wins and that in my mind is about as big an if as one can get. A lot depends on turnout as normal. But if Jones wins over a Trumper candidate that would demonstrate that Trump will be an enormous drag on all GOP candidates in the midterms. It would be the beginning of Republicans in congress beginning to distance themselves from Trump.

I've been playing around with the Trump factor, I haven't decided how much weight to give it. Alabama probably isn't the race to determine that. Perhaps I should say, the state. 55% of Alabaman's approve of Trump. There is a real good chance that the negative Trump factor will come more into play in deep blue states where the Democratic candidates win by larger margin. How that plays in the red Trump states remains to be seen.

I seen the race in CD-6 here in Georgia which shouldn't have been close, but was. Was that due to the Trump factor? How about Montana? I don't think Jones has to win in Alabama, just make it close. I haven't really included the Trump factor in my forecasts yet. More on the numbers of seats at risk, the polls, party affiliations, who won the CD district etc.

A sitting president can be a great hindrance during a midterm, but provide little help. A popular president in a presidential year can have long coattails.
 

Linc

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Get used to saying Sen. O'Rourke from Texas in 2019. Congressman Castro paved the way by not having a messy primary.

Sen. Fischer in Nebraska is very weak. Love to see Heath Mello run for the DEMs.

Sen. Heller is resilient. DEMs may not coalesce around Congresswoman Rosen.

If Finegold can't beat a Johnson in Wisconsin during a POTUS year, Baldwin will have her hands full in a mid-term year.
 

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Whether or not Nebraska and Texas comes into play, they aren't as far as I'm concerned today. May be determined by the Trump factor. Trump is down to 42% in Texas, but is riding a much higher 52% in Nebraska. With a year to go, those numbers will change. Wisconsin, Trump is at 43%, higher than the national average. It's hard to beat an incumbent in any year unless the president is seen as the pits. So far that has been Trump in the majority of states.

I think Fischer, Baldwin are fairly safe. At least at this point in time. Cruz may be different depending on how the Trump factor plays out there. With yesterdays results, along with all the numbers in different categories now hugely favoring the democrats in 2018, it will be interesting to see how soon some Republicans start distancing themselves from Trump. It usually does not good, but it will happen.
 

<alt>doxygen

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Do the results from VA last night alter your projections any?

I wasn't sure which way that would go, but it seems to have gone pretty hard dem.
 

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Martha McSally now says she is running for senate in Arizona. That's going to be an interesting primary.
 

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No, no alterations at this point in time. But the Virginia results gives me a better feel for the Trump factor. I think the dissatisfaction with Trump will increase Democratic turnout in the midterms. Usually in the midterm elections, Republicans are more apt to show up than Democrats. I am getting the feeling it will be different this time around.

In Virginia the exit polls showed that 41% of those who voted were Democrats compared to 30% who were Republicans, the rest independents. That is a huge difference.
 

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Kelly and McSally seem to be the top two. It will be interesting for sure. Regardless of which one wins the GOP nomination, it will be a very tough fight to hang on to Flakes seat. I think we seen the Trump factor at work in Virginia yesterday. That is something I haven't figured into the equations as of yet. By the Trump factor I mean he seems to have energized Democrats to go to the polls leaving Republicans more ho hum about showing up.
 

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GOP Rep. LoBiondo of NJ-2 the latest to retire. Rothenberg moves it from safe to lean R. That makes 22 retiring GOPs in the House.
 

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Always useful information. I think if one looks at the exit polls in Virginia you'll find the Democrats were eager to turnout, perhaps the Republicans not so much. The exit poll showed that 41% of all who voted Tuesday were Democrats, 30% Republicans and 28% independents. I really doubt there is an 11 point difference between party affiliation in Virginia. I think Trump motivated a higher Democratic turnout where the Republicans were more ho hum.

Another interesting tid bit. 34% voted to express opposition to Trump, 17% voted to express support for Trump. 47% said Trump wasn't a factor, but of those 47% where Trump wasn't a factor, they went for Gillespie by a 56-41 margin.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2017-election/VA

Anti-Trump motivation carried Northam to victory.
 

Linc

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Will provide more on Monday when I have some more time. Hectic, as I'm sure you are with Family and such. Finally finished a table with all 435 House seats except adding all of the dozens who are leaving, more each week it seems. We'll discuss that some other time.

Generic nationwide vote means about as much to me as the popular POTUS vote; nothing. PVIs can be misleading when say an R+2 swung heavily from Obama to trump. I'm not counting those when applying the strict Perot Doctrine to which CDs are in play, within the MOE.

So, my initial strict take is there are 20 Dem CDs and 32 GOP CDs in a lot of trouble. One of my 13 focus groups of states is MN/WI, much in common statewide, and 8 seats each. Four of MN's seats are represented by trump/DEMs, one by a clinton/GOP, all within the MOE.

T = trump, R = Romney, C = clinton, and O = Obama. MN-08 has Dem Congressman Nolan that went from O by 5.5 to T by 15.6 with a PVI of R + 4. It gets much worse for DEMs in this critical 2018 state, won by only 44,000 votes by clinton.

Dem. Gov. Dayton is term-limited; Franken; GOP's flipped the State House by 1 member in 2016 and padded their lead in the State Senate. MN-01 Congressman Walz, in a trump CD that swung by 16.3, is running for Governor, so an open DEM seat here. There's more. While the US House is sexy, the State House does all the remaps.

Wisconsin: too gerrymandered to change much, though maps are still in court. (Pennsylvania is getting new maps for 2018) WI-03 DEM Kind ran unopposed in this rural district, in play now, won by trump in a swing of 15.5. He's still contemplating running against Gov. Walker, a fool's errand.

Walker is the head of the 26 GOP governors up in 2018. He's publicly expressed concern over Holder and Obama heading the DEM remap 2021 project. And then there's Speaker Ryan to finish this post. trump won his CD by 10.3; Romney/Ryan won it by 4.2.
 

Linc

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For tier one at risk, make it 20/34 D/R when recounting. Focus Group 2, FG 2, is the Corn-4, NE, IA, KS, and MO, 19 total House seats. NE-02 continues to be in play each election, now more than ever with the Keystone decision due today and the wealthier GOP suburbs turning against trump. This is an R + 4 CD, rated toss-up by all the firms, and went R by 7.2 to T by 2.2; won by Obama in 2008; GM'ed after the 2010 census. If Dems are going to gain ground in NE, they must enter the Lincoln and area CD-1, R + 11, which overlaps with the Omaha CD. Dems need a strong Senate candidate here next year against a weak Sen. Fischer.

3 of 4 Iowa CDs are in play. Southwest IA-01 with a GOP Rep. is D + 1, but moved from O by 13.7 to T by 3.5. It's rated lean to TU. Northeast IA-03 is GOP and R + 1, going from O by 4.2 to T by 3.5. Lean R. Notice the ad market overlap here with SE Minnesota and SW Wisconsin. Southeast IA-02 is a DEM Rep, D + 1, went from O by 13.1 to T by 4.1, another trump/DEM CD. Though rated likely D, this one"s a definite lean at best for Dems. Northwest IA-04, S. King, is R + 11, not in play, but worth watching in tier 3.

Kansas; KS-02, open GOP seat, R + 10, is rated lean R. I disagree, as it went R by 13.6 to T by 18.4.Tier 2 at best. KS-03 is lean R at R + 4, which swung R by 9.5 to C by 1.2, a Clinton/GOP seat. Nice ad overlap with Omaha/Council Bluffs, Kansas City, Des Moines and the Quad Cities.

Then there's Missouri, a current wasteland for DEMs. Says a lot though when key GOP female reps chose not to run against McCaskill. Wagner of MO-02, one of those women, saw her CD go R by 16.3 to T by 10.3. MO--04, 05, and 06 would get ad action by me because they're northern CDs next to Iowa; and ahead of the 2020s.

This makes one DEM and 3 GOPs at risk in the Corn-4 tier one, to go with 5 Dems and one GOP in MN/WI.

Illinois is one of 3 states that stands alone, along with CA and FL, though it has much in common with the Corn-4 and MN/WI when you get away from Chicago. IL-17 DEM went from O by 17.0 to T by 0.7, a trump/DEM CD; so a lean D at D + 3. IL-06 is R + 2, IL-12 is R + 5, IL-13 is R + 3 and IL-14 is R + 5; all tier 2 right now. So just one DEM.

These 7 states I've discussed show 7 DEMs and 4 GOPs in play.
 

Linc

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IMHO, FG-4 is the most important for Democrats; the Rust-4; IN, MI, OH, PA; especially the Senate races in IN, MI, and OH; governors in those 3, and state delegations in those 3 that flipped due to REDMAP 2010, as told to us by GOP guru Chris Jankowski on a lengthy Maddow interview.

PA has 13 GOP and 5 DEM seats. PA is as tenuous to GOPs as MN is to DEMs in the US House. PA-06, R + 2 GOP Costello, went from R by 2.5 to C by 0.6, a Clinton/GOP CD, a lean R. PA-07, R + 1 GOP Meehan, went from R + 1.9 to C + 2.3, another Clinton/GOP seat. Lean R. PA-08, R + 2 GOP Fitzpatrick, went from R by 0.1 to T by 0.2; lean R. PA-15 is retiring GOP Dent; R + 4 which went from R by 2.1 to T by 9.6; lean R.

PA-17 is DEM Cartwright, R + 1 going from O by 12.1 to T by 10.1, a huge swing, a trump/DEM CD. Rated likely by the 3 firms, this one's definitely lean D if not TU. So 1 D to 4 GOP here. The big x-factor in PA is the new remaps next year.

Ohio has 12 GOP and 4 DEM seats. Ohio's maps are horrible for Dems. At best, OH-01 at R + 5, OH-10 at R + 4 and OH-14 at R + 5 are tier 2 big wave CDs. Ohio is now a RED state and DEMs have serious work to do to become competitive in 2020 ahead of the remaps.

Indiana has no competitive seats. It does have Congressmen Messer and Lokita destroying each other in the GOP Senate primary, possibly paving the way for Sen. Donnelley to win another close one.

Michigan has 9 GOP and 5 DEM seats. Will we see coattail effects in MI, OH, and PA with big Senate and Governor races? MI-08 GOP Bishop R + 4 from R by 3.1 to T by 6.7 is a weak lean R; MI-11 open seat Trott GOP at R + 4 from R by 5.4 to T by 4.4; a weak lean. That's it for MI. That's how GM'ed these maps are. DEMs must compete for state house seats next year ahead of the 2020s.

One DEM and 6 GOPs in the Rust-4. Winning % of each candidate over the last few elections are available at The Green Papers: United States Off Year Election 2017
 

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NIMBY;bt4287 said:
Will provide more on Monday when I have some more time. Hectic, as I'm sure you are with Family and such. Finally finished a table with all 435 House seats except adding all of the dozens who are leaving, more each week it seems. We'll discuss that some other time.

Generic nationwide vote means about as much to me as the popular POTUS vote; nothing. PVIs can be misleading when say an R+2 swung heavily from Obama to trump. I'm not counting those when applying the strict Perot Doctrine to which CDs are in play, within the MOE.

So, my initial strict take is there are 20 Dem CDs and 32 GOP CDs in a lot of trouble. One of my 13 focus groups of states is MN/WI, much in common statewide, and 8 seats each. Four of MN's seats are represented by trump/DEMs, one by a clinton/GOP, all within the MOE.

T = trump, R = Romney, C = clinton, and O = Obama. MN-08 has Dem Congressman Nolan that went from O by 5.5 to T by 15.6 with a PVI of R + 4. It gets much worse for DEMs in this critical 2018 state, won by only 44,000 votes by clinton.

Dem. Gov. Dayton is term-limited; Franken; GOP's flipped the State House by 1 member in 2016 and padded their lead in the State Senate. MN-01 Congressman Walz, in a trump CD that swung by 16.3, is running for Governor, so an open DEM seat here. There's more. While the US House is sexy, the State House does all the remaps.

Wisconsin: too gerrymandered to change much, though maps are still in court. (Pennsylvania is getting new maps for 2018) WI-03 DEM Kind ran unopposed in this rural district, in play now, won by trump in a swing of 15.5. He's still contemplating running against Gov. Walker, a fool's errand.

Walker is the head of the 26 GOP governors up in 2018. He's publicly expressed concern over Holder and Obama heading the DEM remap 2021 project. And then there's Speaker Ryan to finish this post. trump won his CD by 10.3; Romney/Ryan won it by 4.2.

It's still very early. Forecasts at this point probably mean little. That is unless you have a trend that has lasted for months. I classify tossup and lean congressional seats as at risk. I haven't got much into the PVI's. The trend has been since Trump took office of the Republicans at risk seats rising from 20 to 37 since he was inaugurated. The Democratic at risk seats have remained a constant 9.

If one was a Republican that would be a very disturbing trend. How many of those 37 will switch, unknown at this point. But when I factor in such things as Trump's approval rating, in the pits. The generic congressional vote, looking especially at independents. State party affiliation or registration when I can get it. The one thing that can't be factored in is the old "I like my own congressman, it is the other 434 that are the problem," syndrome. But what I see is the Trump factor causing the Democrats to turnout to vote more so than the Republicans. We seen this especially in Virginia in the governor's race. At least that was what the exit polls showed. I expect that to continue.

One thing to remember is when the Republicans won 63 Democratic seats in 2010 that was based on the 2000 census. One can gerrymandering the heck out of districts, but over time they change. People move, die and new voters are added. 2018 is based on the 2010 census and I'm sure a lot of the districts don't resemble those drawn in 2010 or 2011 based on 2010 census. I don't put as much emphasis on gerrymandering that took place 8 years earlier as you do.
 

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NIMBY;bt4289 said:
For tier one at risk, make it 20/34 D/R when recounting. Focus Group 2, FG 2, is the Corn-4, NE, IA, KS, and MO, 19 total House seats. NE-02 continues to be in play each election, now more than ever with the Keystone decision due today and the wealthier GOP suburbs turning against trump. This is an R + 4 CD, rated toss-up by all the firms, and went R by 7.2 to T by 2.2; won by Obama in 2008; GM'ed after the 2010 census. If Dems are going to gain ground in NE, they must enter the Lincoln and area CD-1, R + 11, which overlaps with the Omaha CD. Dems need a strong Senate candidate here next year against a weak Sen. Fischer.

3 of 4 Iowa CDs are in play. Southwest IA-01 with a GOP Rep. is D + 1, but moved from O by 13.7 to T by 3.5. It's rated lean to TU. Northeast IA-03 is GOP and R + 1, going from O by 4.2 to T by 3.5. Lean R. Notice the ad market overlap here with SE Minnesota and SW Wisconsin. Southeast IA-02 is a DEM Rep, D + 1, went from O by 13.1 to T by 4.1, another trump/DEM CD. Though rated likely D, this one"s a definite lean at best for Dems. Northwest IA-04, S. King, is R + 11, not in play, but worth watching in tier 3.

Kansas; KS-02, open GOP seat, R + 10, is rated lean R. I disagree, as it went R by 13.6 to T by 18.4.Tier 2 at best. KS-03 is lean R at R + 4, which swung R by 9.5 to C by 1.2, a Clinton/GOP seat. Nice ad overlap with Omaha/Council Bluffs, Kansas City, Des Moines and the Quad Cities.

Then there's Missouri, a current wasteland for DEMs. Says a lot though when key GOP female reps chose not to run against McCaskill. Wagner of MO-02, one of those women, saw her CD go R by 16.3 to T by 10.3. MO--04, 05, and 06 would get ad action by me because they're northern CDs next to Iowa; and ahead of the 2020s.

This makes one DEM and 3 GOPs at risk in the Corn-4 tier one, to go with 5 Dems and one GOP in MN/WI.

Illinois is one of 3 states that stands alone, along with CA and FL, though it has much in common with the Corn-4 and MN/WI when you get away from Chicago. IL-17 DEM went from O by 17.0 to T by 0.7, a trump/DEM CD; so a lean D at D + 3. IL-06 is R + 2, IL-12 is R + 5, IL-13 is R + 3 and IL-14 is R + 5; all tier 2 right now. So just one DEM.

These 7 states I've discussed show 7 DEMs and 4 GOPs in play.
I think it is far too early to get down to the nitty gritty. I don't place that much into how or by how much a CD went to a presidential candidate. I never have. Being from Georgia I have seen Georgia in the past vote for a Republican president, then go Democratic for every office on the ballot below the presidential slot. Although that is in the past. It wasn't unusual to see the Republican presidential candidate win Georgia by 10 or 15 points, then elect a Democratic senator and most representatives by 20 points. I don't think Georgia was all that unique in that area.

But my at risk list for those 7 states show 11 Republicans vs. 3 Democrats. But keep in mind I don't include likely. Incumbency has a lot to do with this as do open seats.
 

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NIMBY;bt4290 said:
IMHO, FG-4 is the most important for Democrats; the Rust-4; IN, MI, OH, PA; especially the Senate races in IN, MI, and OH; governors in those 3, and state delegations in those 3 that flipped due to REDMAP 2010, as told to us by GOP guru Chris Jankowski on a lengthy Maddow interview.

PA has 13 GOP and 5 DEM seats. PA is as tenuous to GOPs as MN is to DEMs in the US House. PA-06, R + 2 GOP Costello, went from R by 2.5 to C by 0.6, a Clinton/GOP CD, a lean R. PA-07, R + 1 GOP Meehan, went from R + 1.9 to C + 2.3, another Clinton/GOP seat. Lean R. PA-08, R + 2 GOP Fitzpatrick, went from R by 0.1 to T by 0.2; lean R. PA-15 is retiring GOP Dent; R + 4 which went from R by 2.1 to T by 9.6; lean R.

PA-17 is DEM Cartwright, R + 1 going from O by 12.1 to T by 10.1, a huge swing, a trump/DEM CD. Rated likely by the 3 firms, this one's definitely lean D if not TU. So 1 D to 4 GOP here. The big x-factor in PA is the new remaps next year.

Ohio has 12 GOP and 4 DEM seats. Ohio's maps are horrible for Dems. At best, OH-01 at R + 5, OH-10 at R + 4 and OH-14 at R + 5 are tier 2 big wave CDs. Ohio is now a RED state and DEMs have serious work to do to become competitive in 2020 ahead of the remaps.

Indiana has no competitive seats. It does have Congressmen Messer and Lokita destroying each other in the GOP Senate primary, possibly paving the way for Sen. Donnelley to win another close one.

Michigan has 9 GOP and 5 DEM seats. Will we see coattail effects in MI, OH, and PA with big Senate and Governor races? MI-08 GOP Bishop R + 4 from R by 3.1 to T by 6.7 is a weak lean R; MI-11 open seat Trott GOP at R + 4 from R by 5.4 to T by 4.4; a weak lean. That's it for MI. That's how GM'ed these maps are. DEMs must compete for state house seats next year ahead of the 2020s.

One DEM and 6 GOPs in the Rust-4. Winning % of each candidate over the last few elections are available at The Green Papers: United States Off Year Election 2017

I think Trump winning Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania was an aberration. I place the blame on Hillary for her lack of concern in those states. When a candidate basically ignores states she should have won because perhaps she thought they were in the bag...you get the picture.

Although with Detroit losing about half its population over the last 10-15 years along with several other cities, migration, that may be an additional factor in Clinton's loss there. But that didn't apply in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. There Trump spent time addressing or at least talking about the working class fears and worries. Whereas Hillary continued to talk about being an Obama third term. That wasn't what the working class wanted to hear.

I'd go at the moment for the Rust belt of 0 Dem to 5 GOP at risk. The bottom line is as of today my thinking is the odds of the Democrats gaining the net 24 seats probably has inched above 50%. I do more studying when my December forecast is due.
 

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Perotista;bt4316 said:
I think Trump winning Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania was an aberration. I place the blame on Hillary for her lack of concern in those states. When a candidate basically ignores states she should have won because perhaps she thought they were in the bag...you get the picture.

Although with Detroit losing about half its population over the last 10-15 years along with several other cities, migration, that may be an additional factor in Clinton's loss there. But that didn't apply in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. There Trump spent time addressing or at least talking about the working class fears and worries. Whereas Hillary continued to talk about being an Obama third term. That wasn't what the working class wanted to hear.

I'd go at the moment for the Rust belt of 0 Dem to 5 GOP at risk. The bottom line is as of today my thinking is the odds of the Democrats gaining the net 24 seats probably has inched above 50%. I do more studying when my December forecast is due.

Of the first 11 states we've discussed, you have 16 R and 3 D, while I have 11R and 8 D, quite the difference in this our 5th election together. Next up, FG 6, ahead of your next edition is the Atlantic-10. Huge of course are NY and NJ; 4R and 2D for NY; 3R and 1D for NJ; both D for NH; ME-02 for R; CT is worth watching; 8R and 5D in the A10;

FG 6 is VA/NC--only 2 R in VA; FG 7 of the Southeast 7; GA--SC--TN--KY--AL--MS--WV; has no tier one races, but a few tier two; FG 8 is the Mountain 6 of AK, MT, ID, WY, ND and SD; Zero tier one; after 36 states, 21 R and 13 D;

Florida is FG 9; 2R and 2 D; FG 10 is the Texas-4 including AR, OK, LA, TX; only 3 R in TX; FG 11 is the 5-corners of NM, CO, UT, AZ, NV; CO has 1 R, UT has 1 R, AZ has one each, and NV has a big 2 D; FG 12 of WA/OR has 1R in WA and 2 D in OR; 9 R and 7 D in this paragraph;

CA, FG 13: 7 R and 1 D; another huge state; so I have 37 R and 21 D total; I see in CA and across the Nation the GOP spending early and often, the key to their decade of election success; especially on defense; with less DEM targets which I believe are just as vulnerable if not more than the GOP seats, the GOP can spend more per seat on offense. I'd rate it +13 for DEMs right now ...
 
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