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Currently there are 51 Republicans and 49 Democrats in the Current Senate. There are 26 Democratic seats up for re-election vs. 8 for the Republicans.

Safe Democratic seats 14: California, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Maryland, Massachusetts, Minnesota (Klobuchar), New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Rhode Island, Vermont, Virginia, Washington.

Non-competitive Democratic seats at this time, but could become so at some time in the future 6: Maine, Michigan, Minnesota (Smith), Montana, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin.

Democratic at-risk seats of switching 6: Florida, Indiana, Missouri, Ohio, North Dakota, West Virginia.

Safe Republican seats 4: Mississippi, Nebraska, Utah, Wyoming

Non-competitive Republican seats at this time, but could become so at some time in the future 1: Texas.

The Republicans have 3 at risk seats of switching this election cycle, Arizona, Nevada, Tennessee.

Arizona Flake R – The Republican nomination is a tossup between Kelli Ward and Martha McSally. Democrat Kyrsten Sinema is the odds on favorite to face Ward or McSally next November. Whether Ward or McSally faces Sinema in November, this race is as tight as it gets. With a year’s long trend favoring the democrats, with no other reason, I'm sticking with Sinema. Democratic gain R 50 D 50

Florida Nelson D – The only republican that could beat Nelson is current Governor Scott. As of yet, Scott hasn’t decided whether to run or not. Until Scott makes his decision, Nelson looks like the winner against any other GOP candidate. Democratic hold R 50 D 50

Indiana – Donnelly D – 6 Republicans have declared their candidacy to challenge Donnelly with more to come. The top two are Todd Rokita and Luke Messer. It looks like these two will fight it out for the GOP nomination. Regardless, Donnelly looks a good bet to win come November. Democratic Hold R 50 D 50

Missouri McCaskill D – Four Republicans have declared to challenge McCaskill with the best known being Josh Hawley, the Missouri AG. McCaskill approval numbers in Missouri is in the low 40’s. This makes her vulnerable. Trump’s approval rating in Missouri is at 49% approve/44% disapprove. If the GOP goes with Hawley and not some far out wacko like they did six years ago with Aiken. Missouri is ripe for a Republican pick up. Republican gain. R 51 D 49

Nevada Heller R –Heller is being challenged by Danny Tarkanian who has the early lead in the polls for the GOP nomination. There are 4 declared Democratic challengers for Heller’s seat with more to come. Heller or Tarkanian, doesn’t matter. Nevada will be a Democratic gain. R 50 D 50

Ohio Brown D – There are 4 declared Republican candidates to challenge Brown. Josh Mandel is the heavy favorite to win the GOP nomination. Brown doesn’t face a challenger for his seat in the Democratic Primary. Brown in a close one. Democratic hold. R 50 D 50

North Dakota Heitkamp D – Heitkamp has a token Democratic challenger for her seat, not a problem. On the GOP side, state representative Tom Campbell is the only declared candidate, although 4 others are giving jumping into the ring a thought. Even so, Heitkamp looks like a winner. Democratic Hold R 50 D 50

Tennessee Corker R Corker is retiring leaving this seat open. Marsha Blackburn a Republican House member leads a field of six for the Republican nomination. She’ll win it. Phil Bredesen a former Democratic governor of Tennessee is the likely Democratic nominee. I look for Blackburn to win in a very close race. Republican Hold R 50 D 50

West Virginia Manchin D - Manchin is another sitting senator who will receive token opposition in the Democratic Primary. Nothing to worry about for Joe. On the GOP side there are 8 declared candidates. Doesn’t matter who challenges the popular sitting senator and ex-governor, Manchin will win easily. Democratic hold R 50 D 50

I moved Tennessee from non-competitive Republican to at risk Republican. Missouri from a Democratic hold to a Republican gain. As a result my forecast has become a 50-50 tie. With VP Pence casting the tie breaking votes, the senate will remain in GOP hands.

House of Representatives

Currently the House of Representative consists of 241 Republicans and 194 Democrats. For 2018 the Republicans have 40 seats at risk of switching parties to 9 for the Democrats. 2 additional seats has been added to the Republican at risk total since last month. Six months ago there were only 20 at risk seats for the Republicans. The Democratic total of 9 at risk seats hasn’t change in those same six months. Not a good omen for the GOP. More importantly, there are 25 current Republican house members not seeking re-election in November. Those due to either retirement or running for higher office. These open seats are much easier for the opposing party to win or switch them. The Democrats need a net gain of 24 seats to take over control of the House. They’ll gain 30 accomplishing that task and perhaps more as the number of at risk Republican seats continues to grow. This is an increase of seven seats for the Democrats since last month. The new House will have 224 Democrats to 211 Republicans.

October Senate 51 R 49 D, House 221 R 214 D
November Senate 51 R 49 D, House 221 R 214 D
December Senate 49 R 51 D, House 218 R 217 D


Well-known member
Jul 17, 2012
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New England
Political Leaning
Just curious on your take in Wisconsin. Kevin Nicholson is a blue collar, veteran former democrat, who is running in the GOP primary. Have been reading a lot that if he wins the primary it could spell trouble for Tammy Baldwin. I wouldnt have even considered it myself but other pundits are claiming this will determine how blue the state really is.


DP Veteran
Jan 31, 2013
Reaction score
Political Leaning
Wisconsin has been off the radar screen with most pundits assuming Baldwin is a shoe in. Looking at it, Nicholson is probably the heavy favorite to win the GOP nomination at this point. But with so much time between now and the primary, who knows what will happen. Things change, ratings change once the names of candidates are known. Baldwin has to be the easy favorite to retain her seat now. That could change, but I have this feeling the midterms will be more about Trump than about Nicholson and Baldwin.

It probably depends some on local issues, but with the first midterms being more of a referendum on the president, being an incumbent and a Democrat should be enough for Baldwin to win.
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