PEROTISTA’S 2018 SENATE and HOUSE FORECAST December 2017
I waited until after the Alabama special senate election before I compiled this month’s forecast. The result of that election effects the numbers going into next year’s midterms. One quick comment on the trends heading into the midterms next year. The Republicans won all 4 special congressional races this year. But they all occurred in deep red congressional district where the Democratic challenger performed 10 points or better than each should have normally. A Democrat easily won Virginia’s governor’s race and now a Democrat has won the senate seat in Alabama. The long term trends are going the Democrats way.
With yesterday's results, there are 51 Republicans and 49 Democrats in the Senate or will be once Jones takes his seat. There are 26 Democratic seats up for re-election vs. 8 for the Republicans.
Safe Democratic seats 14: California, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Maryland, Massachusetts, Minnesota (Klobuchar), New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Rhode Island, Vermont, Virginia, Washington.
Non-competitive Democratic seats at this time, but could become so at some time in the future 6: Maine, Michigan, Minnesota (Franken), Montana, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin.
Democratic at-risk seats of switching 6: Florida, Indiana, Missouri, Ohio, North Dakota, West Virginia.
Safe Republican seats 4: Mississippi, Nebraska, Utah, Wyoming
Non-competitive Republican seats at this time, but could become so at some time in the future 2: Tennessee, Texas.
The Republicans have 2 at risk seats of switching this election cycle, Arizona, Nevada.
Arizona Flake R – Flake has withdrew. This is now an open seat. Republicans Kelli Ward and Martha McSally are running neck and neck for the GOP nomination. There’s six candidates at the moment vying for the Democratic nomination. Kyrsten Sinema is the odds on favorite to face Ward or McSally next November. The polls show a dead even race between Sinema vs. Ward or Sinema vs. McSally. Even so, with a year’s long trend favoring the Democrats, Arizona’s senate seat will go to the Democrat. Democratic gain R 50 D 50
Florida Nelson D – The big question remains the same as last month, will Governor Scott challenge Nelson for his senate seat next year? If Scott does challenge Nelson, the GOP has a 50-50 chance of picking up this seat. If not, Nelson wins easily. Democratic hold R 50 D 50
Indiana – Donnelly D – 6 Republicans have declared their candidacy to challenge Donnelly with more to come. The top two are Todd Rokita and Luke Messer. It looks like these two will fight it out for the GOP nomination. It doesn’t look at this time that either can defeat Donnelly. Democratic Hold R 50 D 50
Missouri McCaskill D – Four Republicans have declared to challenge McCaskill with the best known being Josh Hawley, the Missouri AG. The only poll taken between McCaskill and Hawley was done in October which shows a dead even race. But that was before Virginia’s governor’s and the Alabama senate election. Trends and incumbency will let McCaskill keep her seat. Democratic hold. R 50 D 50
Nevada Heller R –Heller is being challenged by Danny Tarkanian who has the early lead in the polls for the GOP nomination. There are 4 declared Democratic challengers for Heller’s seat with more to come. Heller or Tarkanian, I don’t think it matters who wins on the Republican side. Nevada will be a Democratic gain. R 49 D 51
Ohio Brown D – There are 4 declared Republican candidates to challenge Brown. Josh Mandel is the heavy favorite to win the GOP nomination. Brown doesn’t face a challenger for his seat in the Democratic Primary. Brown in a close one. Democratic hold. R 49 D 51
North Dakota Heitkamp D – Heitkamp has a token Democratic challenger for her seat, not a problem. On the GOP side, state representative Tom Campbell is the only declared candidate. The people of North Dakota are happy with Heitkamp. Democratic Hold R 49 D 51
West Virginia Manchin D - Manchin is another sitting senator who will receive token opposition in the Democratic Primary. Nothing to worry about for Joe. On the GOP side there are 6 declared candidates with probably a couple of more to come. Doesn’t matter who challenges the popular sitting senator and ex-governor, Manchin will win easily. Democratic hold R 49 D 51
Franken Minnesota is resigning giving Minnesota two senate races next year. I moved Virginia from Non-Competitive to safe democrat. On the Republican side Texas and Tennessee have been moved from safe to Non-competitive at this time. I also switched Missouri from a Republican gain to a Democratic hold. Considering the Democrats have 26 seats up for re-election vs. 8 for the GOP, the thought the Democrats could gain control of the senate seems absurd. Yet, that looks exactly what will happen at this point in time. Keep in mind, trends today can change tomorrow. There are still a lot of names to be determined and once we have named candidate vs. another named candidate, that also can and usually does change the equation. Still a lot of time to go. Stay tuned.
House of Representatives
Currently the House of Representative consists of 241 Republicans and 194 Democrats. For 2018 the Republicans have 38 seats at risk of switching parties to 9 for the Democrats. 2 additional seats has been added to the Republican at risk total since last month. More importantly, those 2 seats are open seats due to retirement of a Republican congressman. Open seats with no incumbent are the easiest to switch. The Democrats need a net gain of 24 seats to take over control of the House. They will fall one short. The Democrats will have a net gain of 23 seats. 3 more since last month. The new House will have 218 Republicans to 217 Democrats.
History
2017
October Senate 51 R 49 D, House 221 R 214 D
November Senate 51 R 49 D, House 221 R 214 D
I waited until after the Alabama special senate election before I compiled this month’s forecast. The result of that election effects the numbers going into next year’s midterms. One quick comment on the trends heading into the midterms next year. The Republicans won all 4 special congressional races this year. But they all occurred in deep red congressional district where the Democratic challenger performed 10 points or better than each should have normally. A Democrat easily won Virginia’s governor’s race and now a Democrat has won the senate seat in Alabama. The long term trends are going the Democrats way.
With yesterday's results, there are 51 Republicans and 49 Democrats in the Senate or will be once Jones takes his seat. There are 26 Democratic seats up for re-election vs. 8 for the Republicans.
Safe Democratic seats 14: California, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Maryland, Massachusetts, Minnesota (Klobuchar), New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Rhode Island, Vermont, Virginia, Washington.
Non-competitive Democratic seats at this time, but could become so at some time in the future 6: Maine, Michigan, Minnesota (Franken), Montana, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin.
Democratic at-risk seats of switching 6: Florida, Indiana, Missouri, Ohio, North Dakota, West Virginia.
Safe Republican seats 4: Mississippi, Nebraska, Utah, Wyoming
Non-competitive Republican seats at this time, but could become so at some time in the future 2: Tennessee, Texas.
The Republicans have 2 at risk seats of switching this election cycle, Arizona, Nevada.
Arizona Flake R – Flake has withdrew. This is now an open seat. Republicans Kelli Ward and Martha McSally are running neck and neck for the GOP nomination. There’s six candidates at the moment vying for the Democratic nomination. Kyrsten Sinema is the odds on favorite to face Ward or McSally next November. The polls show a dead even race between Sinema vs. Ward or Sinema vs. McSally. Even so, with a year’s long trend favoring the Democrats, Arizona’s senate seat will go to the Democrat. Democratic gain R 50 D 50
Florida Nelson D – The big question remains the same as last month, will Governor Scott challenge Nelson for his senate seat next year? If Scott does challenge Nelson, the GOP has a 50-50 chance of picking up this seat. If not, Nelson wins easily. Democratic hold R 50 D 50
Indiana – Donnelly D – 6 Republicans have declared their candidacy to challenge Donnelly with more to come. The top two are Todd Rokita and Luke Messer. It looks like these two will fight it out for the GOP nomination. It doesn’t look at this time that either can defeat Donnelly. Democratic Hold R 50 D 50
Missouri McCaskill D – Four Republicans have declared to challenge McCaskill with the best known being Josh Hawley, the Missouri AG. The only poll taken between McCaskill and Hawley was done in October which shows a dead even race. But that was before Virginia’s governor’s and the Alabama senate election. Trends and incumbency will let McCaskill keep her seat. Democratic hold. R 50 D 50
Nevada Heller R –Heller is being challenged by Danny Tarkanian who has the early lead in the polls for the GOP nomination. There are 4 declared Democratic challengers for Heller’s seat with more to come. Heller or Tarkanian, I don’t think it matters who wins on the Republican side. Nevada will be a Democratic gain. R 49 D 51
Ohio Brown D – There are 4 declared Republican candidates to challenge Brown. Josh Mandel is the heavy favorite to win the GOP nomination. Brown doesn’t face a challenger for his seat in the Democratic Primary. Brown in a close one. Democratic hold. R 49 D 51
North Dakota Heitkamp D – Heitkamp has a token Democratic challenger for her seat, not a problem. On the GOP side, state representative Tom Campbell is the only declared candidate. The people of North Dakota are happy with Heitkamp. Democratic Hold R 49 D 51
West Virginia Manchin D - Manchin is another sitting senator who will receive token opposition in the Democratic Primary. Nothing to worry about for Joe. On the GOP side there are 6 declared candidates with probably a couple of more to come. Doesn’t matter who challenges the popular sitting senator and ex-governor, Manchin will win easily. Democratic hold R 49 D 51
Franken Minnesota is resigning giving Minnesota two senate races next year. I moved Virginia from Non-Competitive to safe democrat. On the Republican side Texas and Tennessee have been moved from safe to Non-competitive at this time. I also switched Missouri from a Republican gain to a Democratic hold. Considering the Democrats have 26 seats up for re-election vs. 8 for the GOP, the thought the Democrats could gain control of the senate seems absurd. Yet, that looks exactly what will happen at this point in time. Keep in mind, trends today can change tomorrow. There are still a lot of names to be determined and once we have named candidate vs. another named candidate, that also can and usually does change the equation. Still a lot of time to go. Stay tuned.
House of Representatives
Currently the House of Representative consists of 241 Republicans and 194 Democrats. For 2018 the Republicans have 38 seats at risk of switching parties to 9 for the Democrats. 2 additional seats has been added to the Republican at risk total since last month. More importantly, those 2 seats are open seats due to retirement of a Republican congressman. Open seats with no incumbent are the easiest to switch. The Democrats need a net gain of 24 seats to take over control of the House. They will fall one short. The Democrats will have a net gain of 23 seats. 3 more since last month. The new House will have 218 Republicans to 217 Democrats.
History
2017
October Senate 51 R 49 D, House 221 R 214 D
November Senate 51 R 49 D, House 221 R 214 D