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PEROTISTA’S 2018 SENATE and HOUSE FORECAST December 2017

PEROTISTA’S 2018 SENATE and HOUSE FORECAST December 2017

I waited until after the Alabama special senate election before I compiled this month’s forecast. The result of that election effects the numbers going into next year’s midterms. One quick comment on the trends heading into the midterms next year. The Republicans won all 4 special congressional races this year. But they all occurred in deep red congressional district where the Democratic challenger performed 10 points or better than each should have normally. A Democrat easily won Virginia’s governor’s race and now a Democrat has won the senate seat in Alabama. The long term trends are going the Democrats way.

With yesterday's results, there are 51 Republicans and 49 Democrats in the Senate or will be once Jones takes his seat. There are 26 Democratic seats up for re-election vs. 8 for the Republicans.

Safe Democratic seats 14: California, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Maryland, Massachusetts, Minnesota (Klobuchar), New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Rhode Island, Vermont, Virginia, Washington.

Non-competitive Democratic seats at this time, but could become so at some time in the future 6: Maine, Michigan, Minnesota (Franken), Montana, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin.

Democratic at-risk seats of switching 6: Florida, Indiana, Missouri, Ohio, North Dakota, West Virginia.

Safe Republican seats 4: Mississippi, Nebraska, Utah, Wyoming

Non-competitive Republican seats at this time, but could become so at some time in the future 2: Tennessee, Texas.

The Republicans have 2 at risk seats of switching this election cycle, Arizona, Nevada.

Arizona Flake R – Flake has withdrew. This is now an open seat. Republicans Kelli Ward and Martha McSally are running neck and neck for the GOP nomination. There’s six candidates at the moment vying for the Democratic nomination. Kyrsten Sinema is the odds on favorite to face Ward or McSally next November. The polls show a dead even race between Sinema vs. Ward or Sinema vs. McSally. Even so, with a year’s long trend favoring the Democrats, Arizona’s senate seat will go to the Democrat. Democratic gain R 50 D 50

Florida Nelson D – The big question remains the same as last month, will Governor Scott challenge Nelson for his senate seat next year? If Scott does challenge Nelson, the GOP has a 50-50 chance of picking up this seat. If not, Nelson wins easily. Democratic hold R 50 D 50

Indiana – Donnelly D – 6 Republicans have declared their candidacy to challenge Donnelly with more to come. The top two are Todd Rokita and Luke Messer. It looks like these two will fight it out for the GOP nomination. It doesn’t look at this time that either can defeat Donnelly. Democratic Hold R 50 D 50

Missouri McCaskill D – Four Republicans have declared to challenge McCaskill with the best known being Josh Hawley, the Missouri AG. The only poll taken between McCaskill and Hawley was done in October which shows a dead even race. But that was before Virginia’s governor’s and the Alabama senate election. Trends and incumbency will let McCaskill keep her seat. Democratic hold. R 50 D 50

Nevada Heller R –Heller is being challenged by Danny Tarkanian who has the early lead in the polls for the GOP nomination. There are 4 declared Democratic challengers for Heller’s seat with more to come. Heller or Tarkanian, I don’t think it matters who wins on the Republican side. Nevada will be a Democratic gain. R 49 D 51

Ohio Brown D – There are 4 declared Republican candidates to challenge Brown. Josh Mandel is the heavy favorite to win the GOP nomination. Brown doesn’t face a challenger for his seat in the Democratic Primary. Brown in a close one. Democratic hold. R 49 D 51

North Dakota Heitkamp D – Heitkamp has a token Democratic challenger for her seat, not a problem. On the GOP side, state representative Tom Campbell is the only declared candidate. The people of North Dakota are happy with Heitkamp. Democratic Hold R 49 D 51

West Virginia Manchin D - Manchin is another sitting senator who will receive token opposition in the Democratic Primary. Nothing to worry about for Joe. On the GOP side there are 6 declared candidates with probably a couple of more to come. Doesn’t matter who challenges the popular sitting senator and ex-governor, Manchin will win easily. Democratic hold R 49 D 51

Franken Minnesota is resigning giving Minnesota two senate races next year. I moved Virginia from Non-Competitive to safe democrat. On the Republican side Texas and Tennessee have been moved from safe to Non-competitive at this time. I also switched Missouri from a Republican gain to a Democratic hold. Considering the Democrats have 26 seats up for re-election vs. 8 for the GOP, the thought the Democrats could gain control of the senate seems absurd. Yet, that looks exactly what will happen at this point in time. Keep in mind, trends today can change tomorrow. There are still a lot of names to be determined and once we have named candidate vs. another named candidate, that also can and usually does change the equation. Still a lot of time to go. Stay tuned.



House of Representatives

Currently the House of Representative consists of 241 Republicans and 194 Democrats. For 2018 the Republicans have 38 seats at risk of switching parties to 9 for the Democrats. 2 additional seats has been added to the Republican at risk total since last month. More importantly, those 2 seats are open seats due to retirement of a Republican congressman. Open seats with no incumbent are the easiest to switch. The Democrats need a net gain of 24 seats to take over control of the House. They will fall one short. The Democrats will have a net gain of 23 seats. 3 more since last month. The new House will have 218 Republicans to 217 Democrats.

History
2017
October Senate 51 R 49 D, House 221 R 214 D
November Senate 51 R 49 D, House 221 R 214 D
 
Thanks from me for all your hard work, Pero! :thumbs:
 
You're most welcome Pol. It is a work of joy, pure enjoyment to see how things, elections stand.
 
Many thanks once again brother Pero. Wishing you and your family a Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year. We could be doing a Maine to Alabama car road trip back-and-forth across the AMT Fall 2019 when she's finally retired.

As you asked me once before, I've got a Governor recap if you'd like it here. State Houses and Senates are the real prize the next two elections. Ballotpedia is great for those.

I don't see Congresswoman Blackburn in any trouble in TN for Senator. Fischer in NE has a DEM Lincoln City Councilwoman. Cruz has Rep. O'Rourke. Tarkanian and Ward would be like Akins all over again.

I'll try to keep the House short. The NRCC Head gave it away today, signaling MN, AZ, and NV for pickups. He left out both NH DEMs and at least a dozen more. GOPs are smart like that.

House elections are local, as you've said many times. DEMs are spreading themselves too thin while GOPs have fewer but better targets ...
 
Hey Linc, yeah, the old "I like my congressman, it is the other 434 that are the problem," always has an effect. With a year to go until the midterms, it is hard to gauge that effect. History does show that the first midterm is a referendum on the president. This president has been stuck below 40% approval for a good six months now and it doesn't look like that will change. History also shows every president since FDR has lost seats in the House with the lone exception of G.W. Bush who had 9-11 happen prior to his first midterm thus uniting the people behind him and his party. He lost 33 seats in his second midterm and the congress.

If you throw in the generic congressional polls along with Trump's poor approval ratings, those Generic Congressional polls show the Democrats with a 8-10 point lead. Add party affiliation which the GOP has shrunk down to 25%, take the at risk seats into consideration, how many open, where they are, the PVI. Take a look at how independents feel, among other factors, it boils down to a very good year. This trend for the Democrats has been going on since at least March. that is a long term trend. It means it isn't over just one thing which upsets the numbers and trend such as a government shutdown, repeal of the ACA or even the tax plan. One event can change all the numbers for a couple of weeks, then they go back to the original trend.

The one thing that makes me stop at predicting a Democratic take over of the house at this point is independents and how they view both congressional parties. Independents view the Democrats congressional delegations or office holders at a 19% favorable 57% unfavorable, Republicans at a 17% favorable, 60% unfavorable. No love there at all for either party in congress.

Also on the generic congressional vote, among independents it is much closer than the national average. Republicans generic congressional candidates hold a slight edge over the Democratic generic congressional candidates 31-28. But the undecided is a whopping 38%. Those numbers has been constant for the last four months, right around there. Interesting.
 
..."I like my congressman, it is the other 434 that are the problem," .

Yeah, I think gerrymandering helps that quite a bit. As such, it seems fitting that your prediction of an evenly divided government comes to pass.

Personally, my congressman will not get a vote from me, but he will be almost certainly be re-elected. His website mentions almost nothing but his NRA rating and some stuff aimed at appealing to evangelicals.
 
There are years when one can throw that old adage of, "I like my congressman, it is the other 434 that are the problem," out the window. 1994 saw the Republicans gain 54 seats, but back then a lot of Americans were peeved at the Democrats and Bill Clinton for raising taxes. Perhaps the biggest mistake wasn't in raising taxes overall, but increasing the taxable amount on social security received from 50% to 85%. Those old foggies vote, they vote in a much higher percentage than any other age group.

2006 was another year in which the Democrats gained 33 seats in the house. People were tired of Bush, Iraq war and the recession was beginning to hit. 2010 where the Republican gained 63 seats, mostly because of most people being against the ACA. When people get mad, the old, "I like my congressman, it is the other 434 that are the problem," doesn't apply so much.

Could that happen next year? Sure it could. Over half of all Americans don't like Trump, they're peeved at the GOP congress and think they are a bunch of horses butts. The first midterm of a new president almost always loses seats in the house. I don't see why history won't repeat itself next year.
 
Regarding your House prediction of 23 seats gained by the Dems... no doubt you are aware that 23 is also the number of GOP held seats in which Clinton won in those districts last year. Is that where you get the 23 from? If it is, I suspect you are underestimating the chances of Dems win in a true wave election.

Not only could they win those 23 but they could turn around others in a wave election where people are swept out thought to be safe. Demi could capture as many as 30 seats in the House based on what we have seen in the last few months.

And if Trumps popularity continues to slide - it is right now at only 1/3 of the public... and if the generic preference for a member of Congress continues to grow for Dems - right now it is at 15 points - this could be an epic change.

The more I think about it, the key factor next year will be intensity of voters feelings. And right now Dems seem to hate Trump far more than Republicans love him. He is easily the most despised and loathed President in my lifetime - and that includes Nixon. And if that holds - or even grows in the next eleven months - this could be a blue tsunami in November.
 
haymarket;bt4352 said:
Regarding your House prediction of 23 seats gained by the Dems... no doubt you are aware that 23 is also the number of GOP held seats in which Clinton won in those districts last year. Is that where you get the 23 from? If it is, I suspect you are underestimating the chances of Dems win in a true wave election.

Not only could they win those 23 but they could turn around others in a wave election where people are swept out thought to be safe. Demi could capture as many as 30 seats in the House based on what we have seen in the last few months.

And if Trumps popularity continues to slide - it is right now at only 1/3 of the public... and if the generic preference for a member of Congress continues to grow for Dems - right now it is at 15 points - this could be an epic change.

The more I think about it, the key factor next year will be intensity of voters feelings. And right now Dems seem to hate Trump far more than Republicans love him. He is easily the most despised and loathed President in my lifetime - and that includes Nixon. And if that holds - or even grows in the next eleven months - this could be a blue tsunami in November.
True it looks at this point what I call a sea change election or a tsunami as you put it. I base my house forecast on several things, most important is determining the at risk seats which could switch parties. 38 Republican seats as of this month are at risk vs. 9 for the Democrats. Which means if the Democrats can win all 9 seats they have at risk which usually doesn't happen. They still would have to win 24 out of the 38 Republican currently held seats. Trump's approval number, open seats, generic congressional vote, party affiliation/identification, PVI or partisan voting index plus some more all come into play or determining the number.

In 2016 the Republicans had 33 seats at risk to the Democrats 6. The Republicans lost 9 of those 33 while the Democrats lost 3 of their 6. Net gain for the Democrats, 6 seats. It still early, but what stands out is the Republicans have to defend 24 open seats which are the easiest to win. Defeating an incumbent isn't easy.

One also must remember that neither congressional party, neither political party in general is seen in a positive light. To most Americans, both suck and both have over a 50% unfavorable view. Although the Republicans are view more negative than the Democrats. Neither is liked. These numbers will change over time, they always do.

What is interesting, always keep track of the long term trends without paying the short term trend much attention. Is six months ago, there were only 20 Republican House seats at risk. Those have increased to 38 over six months while the Democratic House seats went from 8 to 9. Also remember, my forecast is based on where things and indicators, numbers stand today. Those items are dynamic and change constantly. We are also pitting unknown candidates in the open seats against each other and an unknown vs. an incumbent in the rest. Once names of candidates become available, changes occur.

What shocks me isn't the house, I always said the Democrats had a 50-50 shot at the house if not better. It's the senate that is the most shocking. With 26 seats up for re-election vs. 8 for the GOP, in a normal year one would expect a Republican pick up of 5, 6 seats. Not losing seats. Call that the Trump factor.
 
I would agree that the Dems best chance to control part of Congress is in the House. And based on the latest polls which show an eleven point gap between who voters want to control Congress - the chances of a Democratic tsunami are looking better and better.

One real area of concern should be that young voters between 18 and 35 prefer Dems to control Congress by a 48 point margin! That is simply staggering. Trump is in the position of alienating an entire generation of voters who have another forty or so years of elections ahead of them. That has to spell disaster for the GOP. One can see why they cling to gerrymandering schemes and voter suppression laws as their only chance of hanging on.
 
haymarket;bt4354 said:
I would agree that the Dems best chance to control part of Congress is in the House. And based on the latest polls which show an eleven point gap between who voters want to control Congress - the chances of a Democratic tsunami are looking better and better.

One real area of concern should be that young voters between 18 and 35 prefer Dems to control Congress by a 48 point margin! That is simply staggering. Trump is in the position of alienating an entire generation of voters who have another forty or so years of elections ahead of them. That has to spell disaster for the GOP. One can see why they cling to gerrymandering schemes and voter suppression laws as their only chance of hanging on.

Both parties gerrymander their butts off when they have a chance. After 2010 census, the republicans were screaming about Illinois and New York while the democrats hollered about Texas and Virginia. You'll see a ton of gerrymandering by both parties again after the 2020 census.

For some reason going back to IKE, the Republicans have always done worse among the younger voters and better among the older ones. I think they will be loyal Democrats until they reach their 30's and 40's, about that time some views seem to change for whatever reason. But I also think after that, candidates matter. Not so much among the die hard partisans, but among the rest.

Independents gave last year's presidential election to Trump, next year they'll probably deliver the House and perhaps the senate to the democrats. Independents are mad at Trump, they will in my opinion take out their anger on Republicans in congress. Much like they did on the democrats in 2010, only this time reversed.
 
haymarket;bt4354 said:
I would agree that the Dems best chance to control part of Congress is in the House. And based on the latest polls which show an eleven point gap between who voters want to control Congress - the chances of a Democratic tsunami are looking better and better.

One real area of concern should be that young voters between 18 and 35 prefer Dems to control Congress by a 48 point margin! That is simply staggering. Trump is in the position of alienating an entire generation of voters who have another forty or so years of elections ahead of them. That has to spell disaster for the GOP. One can see why they cling to gerrymandering schemes and voter suppression laws as their only chance of hanging on.


Youth always vote democratic going back to the 1940s. But as they age they get more conservative. It just happens. Thats why people over the years keep saying the future will be all democrats with fewer republicans getting elected. Except it never happens. Voters are fickle, they vote out republicans just as fast as they do democrats. Its a constant pendulum. The only real changes I think we can expect is that northern states are getting older and whiter while coastal and southwestern states are more diverse. Thats where the changes will be.
 
pilot16;bt4356 said:
Youth always vote democratic going back to the 1940s. But as they age they get more conservative. It just happens. Thats why people over the years keep saying the future will be all democrats with fewer republicans getting elected. Except it never happens. Voters are fickle, they vote out republicans just as fast as they do democrats. Its a constant pendulum. The only real changes I think we can expect is that northern states are getting older and whiter while coastal and southwestern states are more diverse. Thats where the changes will be.

Interesting take on the north. I do know here in Georgia we have had quite a lot of whites, fairly wealthy and some brought their businesses here also. I don't know much about the demographics of the north, what they once were or what they are becoming. Perhaps now instead of south, they are moving west. I don't know.
 
Perotista;bt4357 said:
Interesting take on the north. I do know here in Georgia we have had quite a lot of whites, fairly wealthy and some brought their businesses here also. I don't know much about the demographics of the north, what they once were or what they are becoming. Perhaps now instead of south, they are moving west. I don't know.

Have read some demographers take on it and they feel its possible states like OH, MI, WI will remain fairly red moving forward. Also that New England is likely to get lighter blue as they are the oldest and whitest states in the union. I think Trump is skewing a lot of it since he is so unpopular but I do think in another 5 years or so we will get a clearer look. 4 out of 6 New England states have GOP governors so its not out of the realm of possibility that a Charlie Baker (gov of Mass) could turn them red if he were to run for president in the future.
 
pilot16;bt4358 said:
Have read some demographers take on it and they feel its possible states like OH, MI, WI will remain fairly red moving forward. Also that New England is likely to get lighter blue as they are the oldest and whitest states in the union. I think Trump is skewing a lot of it since he is so unpopular but I do think in another 5 years or so we will get a clearer look. 4 out of 6 New England states have GOP governors so its not out of the realm of possibility that a Charlie Baker (gov of Mass) could turn them red if he were to run for president in the future.
Mass hasn't gone Republican in a presidential election since 1984 and I highly doubt it will change any time soon. You could be correct about the midwest. Trump came within a point and one half of also winning Minnesota although that has been over looked with his squeakers in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. Mass also had elected Romney as governor and Brown as a senator. But that's not presidential.

I agree there are changes afoot. That in 5 or so years we will have a better idea of what they are. But over the last 15 years of so, we have seen a dramatic rise in independents, from 30% to around 44% of the electorate. Perhaps in future election we will be entering an era of wild swings between the two parties.
 
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