PEROTISTA’S 2018 SENATE and HOUSE FORECAST August 2018
Currently there are 51 Republicans and 49 Democrats in the Current Senate. There are 26 Democratic seats up for re-election vs. 9 for the Republicans.
Safe Democratic seats 18: California, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Maryland, Maine, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota (Klobuchar), Minnesota (Smith), New Mexico, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont, Virginia, Washington, Wisconsin.
Non-competitive Democratic seats at this time but could become so at some time in the future 1: New Jersey.
Democratic at-risk seats of switching 7: Florida, Indiana, Missouri, Montana, Ohio, North Dakota, West Virginia.
Safe Republican seats 4: Mississippi (Wicker), Nebraska, Utah, Wyoming
Non-competitive Republican seats at this time, but could become so at some time in the future 1: Texas.
The Republicans have 5 at risk seats of switching this election cycle, Arizona, Mississippi (Hyde-Smith), Nevada, Tennessee, Texas.
Arizona Flake R –McSally has opened a fifteen-point lead over Ward and Arpaio heading into the 28 August Republican primary. She’ll face Democrat Kyrsten Sinema in November which has led McSally in every poll from the beginning of the year. Sinema wins. Democratic gain R 50 D 50
Florida Nelson D – This race between Republican Governor Rick Scott and incumbent Democrat Bill Nelson is about as tight as a race can get. When a race is a pure tossup, go with the incumbent. Democratic hold R 50 D 50
Indiana – Donnelly D – Another extra tight race between Republican Mike Braun and Democratic incumbent Joe Donnelly. This one goes to the Republican Mike Braun. Republican gain. R 51 D 49
Mississippi special Hyde-Smith R – Mississippi will conduct a jungle primary on election day in which all the candidates’ names are listed on the ballot. If no one receives 50% plus one vote, there will be a runoff election three weeks later between the top two. So far there are 2 Republicans, Hyde-Smith and Chris McDaniel along with 2 Democrats Toby Bartee and Mike Espy that will be on the November ballot. No candidate will receive the required 50% plus one vote on election day, hence a runoff between Espy and Hyde-Smith. Hyde-Smith wins the runoff on 27 November. Republican hold R 51 D 49
Missouri McCaskill D – Josh Hawley, the Missouri AG should emerge from an eleven-candidate field as the winner of the Republican Primary on 7 August to face McCaskill in November. McCaskill will pull out a very close win in November. Democratic hold. R 51 D 49
Montana Tester D – Tester will face Republican Matt Rosendale in November. Tester has slipped some in the polls, but still has a comfortable lead. About the only thing that could doom Tester is if he votes nay on SCOTUS Kavanaugh’s nomination. Democratic hold. R 51 D 49
Nevada Heller R – Heller’s bid for another term looks at its end. Democrat Jacky Rosen has a good lead in the recent polls. She’ll win Heller’s seat in November. Democratic gain. R 50 D 50
North Dakota Heitkamp D – Republican Kevin Cramer will face Democratic incumbent Heitkamp in November. Cramer has overtaken Heitkamp in the polling with the momentum on his side. I am changing this race from a Democratic hold to a Republican gain. R 51 D 49
Ohio Brown D – As soon as I was ready to move Ohio from my watch list into the non-competitive column, Republican challenger Jim Renacci narrows Brown’s double digit lead down to four. Even so, Brown will win in November, probably comfortably. Democratic hold. R 51 D 49
Tennessee Corker R - Corker is retiring leaving this seat open. Four of the six Republican senate candidates for the 2 August Republican primary have withdrawn. This leaves Marsha Blackburn with a lone token challenger, Pettigrew. Blackburn will face Phil Bredesen a former Democratic governor of Tennessee in November. Tennessee is another pure tossup race. But it’s Republican lean will let Blackburn pull this one out. Republican Hold R 51 D 49
West Virginia Manchin D – Manchin is facing Republican Patrick Morrisey in November. Although a Democrat in a deep red state, Manchin is very popular, a former governor, now senator. Manchin has also opened a double-digit lead over Morrisey. If Joe maintains this lead next month, I will remove West Virginia off my watch list. Democratic hold R 51 D 49
Miscellaneous record Keeping – I moved Michigan, Minnesota special, (Smith) and Wisconsin from non-competitive to safe Democratic. Texas came off my watch list and placed in the non-competitive column. I have also switched North Dakota from a Democratic hold to a Republican gain. Nonetheless, keeping the status quo, 51-49 after the midterms the same as it was before the election is in my opinion a big Democratic victory. Especially when one considers the democrats had 26 seats up for reelection vs. only 9 for the Republicans. In a normal election cycle you’d expect the GOP to pick up five or six seats just due to the numbers. But with Trump as president, there is nothing normal about an election.
House of Representatives
Currently the House of Representative consists of 240 Republicans and 195 Democrats. For 2018 the Republicans have 53 seats at risk of switching parties, up four from last month vs. 7 for the Democrats, up one from last month. The Democrats need a net gain of 23 seats to take control of the House. They’ll gain 34, 11 more than needed. This is an increase of 2 seats from last month. The number of safe seats in the House is relative even, 187 safe seats for the Republicans, 188 safe seats for the Democrats. The rest are up for grabs. The new House will have 229 Democrats to 206 Republicans.
History
2017
October Senate 51 R 49 D, House 221 R 214 D
November Senate 51 R 49 D, House 221 R 214 D
December Senate 49 R 51 D, House 218 R 217 D
2018
January Senate 50 R 50 D, House 211 R 224 D
February Senate 50 R 50 D, House 213 R 222 D
March Senate 50 R 50 D, House 209 R 226 D
April Senate 49 R 51 D, House 204 R 231 D
May Senate 49 R 51 D, House 207 R 228 D
June Senate 50 R 50 D, House 210 R 225 D
July Senate 50 R 50 D, House 208 R 227 D
August Senate 51 R 40 D, House 206 R 229 D
Currently there are 51 Republicans and 49 Democrats in the Current Senate. There are 26 Democratic seats up for re-election vs. 9 for the Republicans.
Safe Democratic seats 18: California, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Maryland, Maine, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota (Klobuchar), Minnesota (Smith), New Mexico, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont, Virginia, Washington, Wisconsin.
Non-competitive Democratic seats at this time but could become so at some time in the future 1: New Jersey.
Democratic at-risk seats of switching 7: Florida, Indiana, Missouri, Montana, Ohio, North Dakota, West Virginia.
Safe Republican seats 4: Mississippi (Wicker), Nebraska, Utah, Wyoming
Non-competitive Republican seats at this time, but could become so at some time in the future 1: Texas.
The Republicans have 5 at risk seats of switching this election cycle, Arizona, Mississippi (Hyde-Smith), Nevada, Tennessee, Texas.
Arizona Flake R –McSally has opened a fifteen-point lead over Ward and Arpaio heading into the 28 August Republican primary. She’ll face Democrat Kyrsten Sinema in November which has led McSally in every poll from the beginning of the year. Sinema wins. Democratic gain R 50 D 50
Florida Nelson D – This race between Republican Governor Rick Scott and incumbent Democrat Bill Nelson is about as tight as a race can get. When a race is a pure tossup, go with the incumbent. Democratic hold R 50 D 50
Indiana – Donnelly D – Another extra tight race between Republican Mike Braun and Democratic incumbent Joe Donnelly. This one goes to the Republican Mike Braun. Republican gain. R 51 D 49
Mississippi special Hyde-Smith R – Mississippi will conduct a jungle primary on election day in which all the candidates’ names are listed on the ballot. If no one receives 50% plus one vote, there will be a runoff election three weeks later between the top two. So far there are 2 Republicans, Hyde-Smith and Chris McDaniel along with 2 Democrats Toby Bartee and Mike Espy that will be on the November ballot. No candidate will receive the required 50% plus one vote on election day, hence a runoff between Espy and Hyde-Smith. Hyde-Smith wins the runoff on 27 November. Republican hold R 51 D 49
Missouri McCaskill D – Josh Hawley, the Missouri AG should emerge from an eleven-candidate field as the winner of the Republican Primary on 7 August to face McCaskill in November. McCaskill will pull out a very close win in November. Democratic hold. R 51 D 49
Montana Tester D – Tester will face Republican Matt Rosendale in November. Tester has slipped some in the polls, but still has a comfortable lead. About the only thing that could doom Tester is if he votes nay on SCOTUS Kavanaugh’s nomination. Democratic hold. R 51 D 49
Nevada Heller R – Heller’s bid for another term looks at its end. Democrat Jacky Rosen has a good lead in the recent polls. She’ll win Heller’s seat in November. Democratic gain. R 50 D 50
North Dakota Heitkamp D – Republican Kevin Cramer will face Democratic incumbent Heitkamp in November. Cramer has overtaken Heitkamp in the polling with the momentum on his side. I am changing this race from a Democratic hold to a Republican gain. R 51 D 49
Ohio Brown D – As soon as I was ready to move Ohio from my watch list into the non-competitive column, Republican challenger Jim Renacci narrows Brown’s double digit lead down to four. Even so, Brown will win in November, probably comfortably. Democratic hold. R 51 D 49
Tennessee Corker R - Corker is retiring leaving this seat open. Four of the six Republican senate candidates for the 2 August Republican primary have withdrawn. This leaves Marsha Blackburn with a lone token challenger, Pettigrew. Blackburn will face Phil Bredesen a former Democratic governor of Tennessee in November. Tennessee is another pure tossup race. But it’s Republican lean will let Blackburn pull this one out. Republican Hold R 51 D 49
West Virginia Manchin D – Manchin is facing Republican Patrick Morrisey in November. Although a Democrat in a deep red state, Manchin is very popular, a former governor, now senator. Manchin has also opened a double-digit lead over Morrisey. If Joe maintains this lead next month, I will remove West Virginia off my watch list. Democratic hold R 51 D 49
Miscellaneous record Keeping – I moved Michigan, Minnesota special, (Smith) and Wisconsin from non-competitive to safe Democratic. Texas came off my watch list and placed in the non-competitive column. I have also switched North Dakota from a Democratic hold to a Republican gain. Nonetheless, keeping the status quo, 51-49 after the midterms the same as it was before the election is in my opinion a big Democratic victory. Especially when one considers the democrats had 26 seats up for reelection vs. only 9 for the Republicans. In a normal election cycle you’d expect the GOP to pick up five or six seats just due to the numbers. But with Trump as president, there is nothing normal about an election.
House of Representatives
Currently the House of Representative consists of 240 Republicans and 195 Democrats. For 2018 the Republicans have 53 seats at risk of switching parties, up four from last month vs. 7 for the Democrats, up one from last month. The Democrats need a net gain of 23 seats to take control of the House. They’ll gain 34, 11 more than needed. This is an increase of 2 seats from last month. The number of safe seats in the House is relative even, 187 safe seats for the Republicans, 188 safe seats for the Democrats. The rest are up for grabs. The new House will have 229 Democrats to 206 Republicans.
History
2017
October Senate 51 R 49 D, House 221 R 214 D
November Senate 51 R 49 D, House 221 R 214 D
December Senate 49 R 51 D, House 218 R 217 D
2018
January Senate 50 R 50 D, House 211 R 224 D
February Senate 50 R 50 D, House 213 R 222 D
March Senate 50 R 50 D, House 209 R 226 D
April Senate 49 R 51 D, House 204 R 231 D
May Senate 49 R 51 D, House 207 R 228 D
June Senate 50 R 50 D, House 210 R 225 D
July Senate 50 R 50 D, House 208 R 227 D
August Senate 51 R 40 D, House 206 R 229 D