PEROTISTA’S 2018 SENATE and HOUSE FORECAST 1 November 2018
I might add another update on the states of Arizona, Nevada, Montana, Indiana, Missouri if warranted prior to the election.
Currently there are 51 Republicans and 49 Democrats in the Current Senate. There are 26 Democratic seats up for re-election vs. 9 for the Republicans.
Safe Democratic seats 20: California, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Maryland, Maine, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota (Klobuchar), Minnesota Special (Smith), New Mexico, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont, Virginia, Washington, West Virginia, Wisconsin.
Democratic at-risk seats of switching 6: Florida, Indiana, Missouri, Montana, New Jersey, North Dakota.
Safe Republican seats 5: Mississippi (Wicker), Mississippi (Hyde-Smith), Nebraska, Utah, Wyoming
The Republicans have 4 at risk seats of switching this election cycle, Arizona, Nevada, Tennessee, Texas.
Arizona Flake R –Republican McSally pulled ahead of Democrat Kyrsten Sinema in three mid-October polls. This was when Green Party candidate Angela Green was polling around 6% of the vote. Since then Green has dropped back to approximately 2% of the vote, Sinema has retaken the lead. Sinema wins a very tight race. Democratic gain R 50 D 50
Florida Nelson D – Nelson has maintained around a three-point lead for the month of October. This is the upper limits of the margin of error, but still within it. With the advantage of incumbency, Nelson holds onto his seat. Democratic hold R 50 D 50
Indiana – Donnelly D – Donnelly’s nay vote on Kavanaugh has vaulted Republican Mike Braun into a slight lead in the last three polls. But these polls haven’t taken Libertarian Candidate Lucy Brenton into consideration. She is polling around 5% of the vote when included. The Libertarian could very well cost Braun the seat. This is a pure coin flip race. Probably decided by one percent or less. Based solely on the advantage of incumbency and thinking the lasting effect of Donnelly nay vote on Kavanaugh doesn’t have legs, I’m going with Donnelly to keep his seat. Democratic Hold R 50 D 50
Missouri McCaskill D – This is the second race that could be decided by less than a single percentage point. McCaskill has been able to keep slightly ahead or even with Republican Hawley by spending 33 million dollars so far to Hawley’s 7 million. Cash on hand is now in Hawley’s favor, he has 3 million to McCaskill’s 2 million. If McCaskill pulls this one out, it will strictly be because of the money advantage she has had since the beginning. But in Missouri, I don’t think that will be enough. McCaskill voted Nay on Kavanaugh although the majority of Missourian’s wanted her to vote AYE. I’m switching Missouri to a Republican gain. R 51 D 49
Montana Tester D – Tester’s nay vote against Kavanaugh hasn’t hurt him. In fact, Tester has increased his lead over Republican Matt Rosendale from two to four points average. Tester wins. Democratic hold. R 51 D 49
New Jersey D – Menendez – I added New Jersey to my watch list due to Menendez having a 5-point lead over Republican challenger Bob Hugin. Menendez lead is just outside the margin of error. I fully expect Menendez to win by close to 8 points. But Hugin keeping this race within single digits in a deep blue state merits the addition. Democratic Hold R 51 D 49
Nevada Heller R – Incumbent Heller has continued his momentum gaining a slight lead over Jacky Rosen which they were tied a month ago. Stick with the candidate that has the momentum. Republican Hold. R 51 D 49
North Dakota Heitkamp D – Incumbent Democrat Heitkamp’s nay vote on Kavanaugh has doomed her chances of reelection in this deep red state. Republican challenger Kevin Cramer has shot up from four-point advantage to double digits. Republican gain. R 52 D 48
Tennessee Corker R – Republican Marsha Blackburn has increased her average polling advantage over ex-Democratic Governor Phil Bredesen to six points through October. Blackburn wins. Republican Hold R 52 D 48
Texas Cruz R – Incumbent Cruz has increased his lead over Democratic challenger Beto O’Rourke to seven points average. It seems Republicans in Texas are coming home to back Cruz. Give Beto credit for keeping this close for as long as he did. Republican hold R 52 D 48
Miscellaneous record Keeping – Ohio and Minnesota Special, Smith has been moved from Democratic not competitive to safe Democratic. I moved West Virginia off my watch list to safe Democratic. Then I added New Jersey to my watch list from Democratic non-competitive. Remember Mississippi special (Hyde-Smith) will have a runoff to secure her seat after election day, but her seat is safe Republican. The big news is I switched Missouri from a Democratic hold to a Republican gain. As I stated last month I would address the Kavanaugh fall out in the five deep red states with incumbent Democrats. Tester’s nay vote didn’t hut him in Montana, Heitkamp’s nay vote doomed any chance of reelection for her in North Dakota. Donnelly and McCaskill’s nay votes narrowed their leads to where Donnelly might survive and McCaskill probably won’t. But Indiana and Missouri are so close, those two states could go either way. That closeness was caused by their nay vote on Kavanaugh when most folks in those states wanted an AYE vote. Manchin, the only Democratic senator to vote AYE cemented his reelection in West Virginia.
There’s still a lot of flux in this year’s senate races. The best I can see the Democrats doing is a net gain of one. To accomplish that the Democrats must win both Nevada and Arizona along with winning every seat they have up for reelection outside of North Dakota which is a lost cause. The Republicans if they managed to hang onto Arizona and Nevada, then win Montana, North Dakota, Indiana and Missouri could gain four seats if everything went perfect for them. Neither will happen. The results will be Republicans 52, Democrats 48, a net gain of one seat for the GOP. With 26 seats up for reelection vs 9 for the Republicans, this still would be a huge win for the Democrats in my opinion. Especially considering five of the Democrats seats are in deep red states that Trump won by 20 points or more. Indiana, Missouri, West Virginia, North Dakota and Montana.
House of Representatives
Currently the House of Representative consists of 240 Republicans and 195 Democrats. For 2018 the Republicans have 62 seats at risk of switching parties, up four from last month vs. 8 for the Democrats, up two from last month. The Democrats need a net gain of 23 seats to take control of the House. They’ll gain 38, 15 more than needed. This is the same projected increase as last month. The number of safe seats in the House now stands at 178 seats for the Republicans, 187 for the Democrats. The rest are up for grabs. The new House will have 233 Democrats to 202 Republicans. There is an outside possibility the Democrats could gain as many as 50 seats, not likely, but not out of the realm of possibility. On the Republican side, holding their losses to 30 seats is the minimum losses that are possible. Regardless, the Democrats will regain control of the house, it is now just a question of how many seats.
History
2017
October Senate 51 R 49 D, House 221 R 214 D
November Senate 51 R 49 D, House 221 R 214 D
December Senate 49 R 51 D, House 218 R 217 D
2018
January Senate 50 R 50 D, House 211 R 224 D
February Senate 50 R 50 D, House 213 R 222 D
March Senate 50 R 50 D, House 209 R 226 D
April Senate 49 R 51 D, House 204 R 231 D
May Senate 49 R 51 D, House 207 R 228 D
June Senate 50 R 50 D, House 210 R 225 D
July Senate 50 R 50 D, House 208 R 227 D
August Senate 51 R 49 D, House 206 R 229 D
September Senate 51 R 49 D, House 205 R 230 D
October Senate 51 R 49 D, House 202 R 233 D
November Senate 52 R 48 D, House 202 R 233 D
I might add another update on the states of Arizona, Nevada, Montana, Indiana, Missouri if warranted prior to the election.
Currently there are 51 Republicans and 49 Democrats in the Current Senate. There are 26 Democratic seats up for re-election vs. 9 for the Republicans.
Safe Democratic seats 20: California, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Maryland, Maine, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota (Klobuchar), Minnesota Special (Smith), New Mexico, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont, Virginia, Washington, West Virginia, Wisconsin.
Democratic at-risk seats of switching 6: Florida, Indiana, Missouri, Montana, New Jersey, North Dakota.
Safe Republican seats 5: Mississippi (Wicker), Mississippi (Hyde-Smith), Nebraska, Utah, Wyoming
The Republicans have 4 at risk seats of switching this election cycle, Arizona, Nevada, Tennessee, Texas.
Arizona Flake R –Republican McSally pulled ahead of Democrat Kyrsten Sinema in three mid-October polls. This was when Green Party candidate Angela Green was polling around 6% of the vote. Since then Green has dropped back to approximately 2% of the vote, Sinema has retaken the lead. Sinema wins a very tight race. Democratic gain R 50 D 50
Florida Nelson D – Nelson has maintained around a three-point lead for the month of October. This is the upper limits of the margin of error, but still within it. With the advantage of incumbency, Nelson holds onto his seat. Democratic hold R 50 D 50
Indiana – Donnelly D – Donnelly’s nay vote on Kavanaugh has vaulted Republican Mike Braun into a slight lead in the last three polls. But these polls haven’t taken Libertarian Candidate Lucy Brenton into consideration. She is polling around 5% of the vote when included. The Libertarian could very well cost Braun the seat. This is a pure coin flip race. Probably decided by one percent or less. Based solely on the advantage of incumbency and thinking the lasting effect of Donnelly nay vote on Kavanaugh doesn’t have legs, I’m going with Donnelly to keep his seat. Democratic Hold R 50 D 50
Missouri McCaskill D – This is the second race that could be decided by less than a single percentage point. McCaskill has been able to keep slightly ahead or even with Republican Hawley by spending 33 million dollars so far to Hawley’s 7 million. Cash on hand is now in Hawley’s favor, he has 3 million to McCaskill’s 2 million. If McCaskill pulls this one out, it will strictly be because of the money advantage she has had since the beginning. But in Missouri, I don’t think that will be enough. McCaskill voted Nay on Kavanaugh although the majority of Missourian’s wanted her to vote AYE. I’m switching Missouri to a Republican gain. R 51 D 49
Montana Tester D – Tester’s nay vote against Kavanaugh hasn’t hurt him. In fact, Tester has increased his lead over Republican Matt Rosendale from two to four points average. Tester wins. Democratic hold. R 51 D 49
New Jersey D – Menendez – I added New Jersey to my watch list due to Menendez having a 5-point lead over Republican challenger Bob Hugin. Menendez lead is just outside the margin of error. I fully expect Menendez to win by close to 8 points. But Hugin keeping this race within single digits in a deep blue state merits the addition. Democratic Hold R 51 D 49
Nevada Heller R – Incumbent Heller has continued his momentum gaining a slight lead over Jacky Rosen which they were tied a month ago. Stick with the candidate that has the momentum. Republican Hold. R 51 D 49
North Dakota Heitkamp D – Incumbent Democrat Heitkamp’s nay vote on Kavanaugh has doomed her chances of reelection in this deep red state. Republican challenger Kevin Cramer has shot up from four-point advantage to double digits. Republican gain. R 52 D 48
Tennessee Corker R – Republican Marsha Blackburn has increased her average polling advantage over ex-Democratic Governor Phil Bredesen to six points through October. Blackburn wins. Republican Hold R 52 D 48
Texas Cruz R – Incumbent Cruz has increased his lead over Democratic challenger Beto O’Rourke to seven points average. It seems Republicans in Texas are coming home to back Cruz. Give Beto credit for keeping this close for as long as he did. Republican hold R 52 D 48
Miscellaneous record Keeping – Ohio and Minnesota Special, Smith has been moved from Democratic not competitive to safe Democratic. I moved West Virginia off my watch list to safe Democratic. Then I added New Jersey to my watch list from Democratic non-competitive. Remember Mississippi special (Hyde-Smith) will have a runoff to secure her seat after election day, but her seat is safe Republican. The big news is I switched Missouri from a Democratic hold to a Republican gain. As I stated last month I would address the Kavanaugh fall out in the five deep red states with incumbent Democrats. Tester’s nay vote didn’t hut him in Montana, Heitkamp’s nay vote doomed any chance of reelection for her in North Dakota. Donnelly and McCaskill’s nay votes narrowed their leads to where Donnelly might survive and McCaskill probably won’t. But Indiana and Missouri are so close, those two states could go either way. That closeness was caused by their nay vote on Kavanaugh when most folks in those states wanted an AYE vote. Manchin, the only Democratic senator to vote AYE cemented his reelection in West Virginia.
There’s still a lot of flux in this year’s senate races. The best I can see the Democrats doing is a net gain of one. To accomplish that the Democrats must win both Nevada and Arizona along with winning every seat they have up for reelection outside of North Dakota which is a lost cause. The Republicans if they managed to hang onto Arizona and Nevada, then win Montana, North Dakota, Indiana and Missouri could gain four seats if everything went perfect for them. Neither will happen. The results will be Republicans 52, Democrats 48, a net gain of one seat for the GOP. With 26 seats up for reelection vs 9 for the Republicans, this still would be a huge win for the Democrats in my opinion. Especially considering five of the Democrats seats are in deep red states that Trump won by 20 points or more. Indiana, Missouri, West Virginia, North Dakota and Montana.
House of Representatives
Currently the House of Representative consists of 240 Republicans and 195 Democrats. For 2018 the Republicans have 62 seats at risk of switching parties, up four from last month vs. 8 for the Democrats, up two from last month. The Democrats need a net gain of 23 seats to take control of the House. They’ll gain 38, 15 more than needed. This is the same projected increase as last month. The number of safe seats in the House now stands at 178 seats for the Republicans, 187 for the Democrats. The rest are up for grabs. The new House will have 233 Democrats to 202 Republicans. There is an outside possibility the Democrats could gain as many as 50 seats, not likely, but not out of the realm of possibility. On the Republican side, holding their losses to 30 seats is the minimum losses that are possible. Regardless, the Democrats will regain control of the house, it is now just a question of how many seats.
History
2017
October Senate 51 R 49 D, House 221 R 214 D
November Senate 51 R 49 D, House 221 R 214 D
December Senate 49 R 51 D, House 218 R 217 D
2018
January Senate 50 R 50 D, House 211 R 224 D
February Senate 50 R 50 D, House 213 R 222 D
March Senate 50 R 50 D, House 209 R 226 D
April Senate 49 R 51 D, House 204 R 231 D
May Senate 49 R 51 D, House 207 R 228 D
June Senate 50 R 50 D, House 210 R 225 D
July Senate 50 R 50 D, House 208 R 227 D
August Senate 51 R 49 D, House 206 R 229 D
September Senate 51 R 49 D, House 205 R 230 D
October Senate 51 R 49 D, House 202 R 233 D
November Senate 52 R 48 D, House 202 R 233 D