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PEROTISTA’S 2016 SENATE, HOUSE and PRESIDENTIAL FORECAST October 2015

PEROTISTA’S 2016 SENATE, HOUSE and PRESIDENTIAL FORECAST October 2015

Currently there are 54 Republicans and 46 Democrats in the Current Senate.

Safe Democratic seats 8: California, Connecticut, Hawaii, Maryland, New York, Oregon, Vermont, Washington. The Democrats have two at risks seats this election cycle, Colorado and Nevada.

Safe Republican seats (16): Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Missouri, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Utah. The Republicans have seven at risks seats this election cycle, Florida, Illinois, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

Competitive senate races:

Arizona McCain R – McCain leads fellow Republicans Salmon and Schweikert by 4 and 6 points in the Republican Primary race. McCain leads Democrat Carmona by 6 in the General election, but Carmona is tied with Schweikert and is ahead of Salmon by 8. If McCain can survive the primary, he’ll win in November. If not, there is a chance Arizona becomes a Democratic pick up. Republican Hold 54 R 46 D

Colorado Bennet D – Chaos reigns on the Republican side. Coffman is out. The GOP will have all its eggs in a political unproven candidate, George Brauchler. Democrat Bennet looks like a shoe in at this point in time. But there is over a year before the election. Even so, I doubt that will change. Democratic Hold 54 R 46 D

Florida Rubio R – Rubio stated he is running for president until the end and will not defend his seat. This fact makes Florida look like a Democratic pick up. Both Democratic nominees are leading the potential Republican nominees by an average of 8 points. Democratic gain. 53 R 47 D

Illinois Kirk R – Democrat Duckworth is stretching her lead over Republican Kirk. Kirk is a goner. Democratic gain 52 R 48 D

Nevada Reid D – Joe Heck a Republican congressman from Nevada has stated he will be running for Reid’s seat. I have no other news on this race. That being the case, I will keep Nevada as a Democratic hold for this month. 52 R 48 D

New Hampshire Ayotte R – Democrat Hassan taken the lead over Republican Ayotte in the latest PPP poll which makes me look like a genius for switching New Hampshire from a Republican hold to a Democratic gain last month. New Hampshire is a light blue state and the people there like Hassan as governor. She wins. Democratic gain. 51 R 49 D

North Carolina Burr R – According to PPP Burr continues to lead his potential Democratic rivals by an average of 10 points. Republican hold 51 R 49 D

Ohio Portman R – No new polling out of Ohio since last month, then Portman trailed Democrat Strickland by 3, but lead Sittenfeld by 21. With no new information Ohio is remaining as a Republican hold. 51 R 49 D

Pennsylvania Toomey R – Democrat Setak has narrowed Toomey’s to 3 points and McGinty has also closed on Toomey and is now down by 6. Two months ago Toomey’s lead was 16 and 14 points. This trend favors the Democrats and I think whoever wins the Democratic nomination will beat Toomey. Democratic gain. 50 R 50 D

Wisconsin Johnson R – Democrat Russ Feingold is challenging Johnson. Feingold has increased his lead over Johnson to double digits. Feingold will return to the senate. Democratic gain 49 R 51 D

I switched Pennsylvania from Republican hold to Democratic gain that give control of the senate back to the Democrats 51-49. This is a net gain for the Democrats of 5 seats.


House of Representatives

Currently the House of Representative consists of 247 Republicans and 188 Democrats. For 2016 the Republicans have 24 seats at risk vs. the Democrats 6. The other 405 seats have at least a 90% chance of staying with the party that currently holds them. In the end the Republicans will lose 14 of their 24 at risk seats while the Democrats lose 2 of their 6. The Democrats will have a net gain of 12 seats and the new House will have 235 Republicans to 200 Democrats. The net gain of 12 seats for the Democrats is one less than last month.

Presidential Election

In a matchup of Hillary Clinton vs. the Republican field utilizing party affiliation/identification figures along with favorable/unfavorable ratings and the early polls, Hillary has gained back the popular vote lead this month. She leads 49.9% to 47.4%. Last month the numbers were in favor of the Republican field 49.7 to 49.1. In the Electoral College, Florida switched from Republican to Democrat this month giving Hillary a 326-212 win. Last month it was 297-241.

Presidential Electoral Vote Change History of Hillary Clinton vs. the Republican Field predictions.

April 15 Electoral Vote R 238 D 300
May 15 Electoral Vote R 233 D 305
June 15 Electoral Vote R 204 D 334
July 15 Electoral Vote 219 D 319
August 15 Electoral Vote R 248 D 290
September 15 Electoral vote R 241 D 297
October 15 Electoral vote R 212 D 326
 

radioman

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Thanks for the analysis, Pero.
 

imyoda

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Good and balanced analysis keep it coming...........
 

Perotista

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radioman;bt3342 said:
Thanks for the analysis, Pero.

You're most welcome and I appreciate seeing the comment.
 

Perotista

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imyoda;bt3345 said:
Good and balanced analysis keep it coming...........

Numbers do not lie my friend. These figures are very dynamic and change all the time. If one keep ideology out of it, this gives you a good idea where things stand today. But there will always be an unforeseen event or happening, something that can change these figures on their end. But that is the beauty of elections and predictions, there is always the unforeseen.

When that event or events happens, one must roll with it and re-evaluate. Elections are all about timing and the event/s that happen fairly close to the election.

I appreciate the comment.
 

imyoda

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Well said............In the past I have followed Goddard's Political Wire and Win270 to name a few but will add your site to my list
 

Perotista

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imyoda;bt3348 said:
Well said............In the past I have followed Goddard's Political Wire and Win270 to name a few but will add your site to my list

I usually check in with Nate Silvers 538 site at least once a day and I do follow Larry Sabato and his crystal ball.

Politics | FiveThirtyEight

RCP usually has all the latest polls and Charlie Cook and Stuart Rothenberg sites are also good. But the latter two want you to pay for their insider information which I will not do. Personally I find it much more interesting to go inside the polls and read the question and see the numbers than to rely on a political pundit or prognosticator. There is a lot of good information inside the polls that most people just over look.

If you do not have RCP’s site, here it is.

RealClearPolitics - Election Other - President Obama Job Approval

Just click on the polls at the top and let it guide you. Unfiltered information is sometimes the best.
 
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