PEROTISTA’S 2016 SENATE, HOUSE and PRESIDENTIAL FORECAST November 2015
Currently there are 54 Republicans and 46 Democrats in the Current Senate.
Safe Democratic seats 8: California, Connecticut, Hawaii, Maryland, New York, Oregon, Vermont, Washington. The Democrats have two at risks seats this election cycle, Colorado and Nevada.
Safe Republican seats (16): Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Missouri, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Utah. The Republicans have seven at risks seats this election cycle, Florida, Illinois, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
Competitive senate races:
Arizona McCain R – McCain remains a slight favorite to win the Republican nomination over Salmon and Schweikert which he leads by 4 and 6 points. McCain leads Democrat Carmona by 6 in the latest General election poll, but Carmona is tied with Schweikert and is ahead of Salmon by 8. If McCain can survive the primary, he’ll win in November. If not, Arizona could become a Democratic pick up. Republican Hold 54 R 46 D
Colorado Bennet D – The Republicans are in Chaos, the Democrats are united. Bennet looks like an easy winner over Republican George Brauchler. Democratic Hold 54 R 46 D
Florida Rubio R – The Democratic duo of Grayson and Murphy who are vying for that party’s nomination holds close to a ten point edge over the two Republican hopefuls Lopez-Cantera and DeSantis. Democratic gain. 53 R 47 D
Illinois Kirk R – Democrat Duckworth, an Iraqi War Veteran is fast leaving Republican Kirk in her dust. Democratic gain 52 R 48 D
Nevada Reid D – Joe Heck, a Republican congressman from Nevada has pulled within a single point of Democrat Masto. This race is in the category of a pure tossup. But very little information has been forthcoming from Nevada. For the time being I will keep Nevada as a Democratic hold. 52 R 48 D
New Hampshire Ayotte R – Popular Democratic Governor Hassan is beginning to take charge of this race of the incumbent Ayotte. Democratic gain. 51 R 49 D
North Carolina Burr R – Burr continues to lead all 4 of his Democratic rivals. But two of them, Ross and Shuler have pulled within 4 point of him. The other two trail by double digits. Republican hold 51 R 49 D
Ohio Portman R – On the Democratic side Ted Strickland now has more than a 20 point lead over Sittenfeld and looks like Strickland will be the one to challenge Portman. Strickland actually leads Portman in the latest PPP poll by 3 points. Even so I have confidence in the incumbent Portman will pull this one out. Republican hold. 51 R 49 D
Pennsylvania Toomey R – Although Toomey still leads all three of his potential Democratic rivals by 3 or 4 points, this lead has decreased from double digits in the last two months. But who wins this senate race may depend on whom the Republicans nominate to face Hillary Clinton in the general as that would affect turnout and perhaps coat tails. Be that as it may, the trend is against Toomey without help from the ticket above him. Democratic gain. 50 R 50 D
Wisconsin Johnson R – Democrat Russ Feingold looks like a sure winner with double digit leads in both polls conducted this month. Democratic gain 49 R 51 D
There were no changes this month. The Democrats gain 5 senate seats to regain control of the senate 51-49.
House of Representatives
Currently the House of Representative consists of 247 Republicans and 188 Democrats. For 2016 the Republicans have 23 seats at risk vs. the Democrats 5. The other 410 seats have at least a 90% chance of staying with the party that currently holds them. In the end the Republicans will lose 14 of their 23 at risk seats while the Democrats lose 1 of their 6. The Democrats will have a net gain of 13 seats and the new House will have 234 Republicans to 201 Democrats. The net gain of 13 seats for the Democrats is one more than last month.
Presidential Election
In a matchup of Hillary Clinton vs. the Republican field utilizing party affiliation/identification figures along with favorable/unfavorable ratings and the early polls, Hillary dropped a point and a half from 49.9% to 48.4% this month. But that is still enough for Hillary to continue to lead in the popular vote against the Republican Field 48.4% to 47.4%. Even though Hillary lost that point and one half nationally, she increased her vote total in North Carolina to wrestle that state away from the Republican field to give her a 341-197 victory in the Electoral College. Last month she led the Republican field 326-212. The Electoral College vote does not reflect the true closeness of this race. Today Clinton has a 2 point lead in Florida, a 1 point lead in Ohio, 2 points in Pennsylvania and 2 in North Carolina. A swing of just 3 points in the Republican field’s direction would land those 4 states in their column giving the Republican Field 279 electoral votes, 9 more than the 270 needed to win. Stay tuned.
2015 Electoral Vote Tabulation Hillary Clinton vs. the Republican Field
April Electoral Vote R 238 D 300
May Electoral Vote R 233 D 305
June Electoral Vote R 204 D 334
July Electoral Vote 219 D 319
August Electoral Vote R 248 D 290
September Electoral vote R 241 D 297
October Electoral vote R 212 D 326
November Electoral vote R 197 D 341
Currently there are 54 Republicans and 46 Democrats in the Current Senate.
Safe Democratic seats 8: California, Connecticut, Hawaii, Maryland, New York, Oregon, Vermont, Washington. The Democrats have two at risks seats this election cycle, Colorado and Nevada.
Safe Republican seats (16): Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Missouri, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Utah. The Republicans have seven at risks seats this election cycle, Florida, Illinois, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
Competitive senate races:
Arizona McCain R – McCain remains a slight favorite to win the Republican nomination over Salmon and Schweikert which he leads by 4 and 6 points. McCain leads Democrat Carmona by 6 in the latest General election poll, but Carmona is tied with Schweikert and is ahead of Salmon by 8. If McCain can survive the primary, he’ll win in November. If not, Arizona could become a Democratic pick up. Republican Hold 54 R 46 D
Colorado Bennet D – The Republicans are in Chaos, the Democrats are united. Bennet looks like an easy winner over Republican George Brauchler. Democratic Hold 54 R 46 D
Florida Rubio R – The Democratic duo of Grayson and Murphy who are vying for that party’s nomination holds close to a ten point edge over the two Republican hopefuls Lopez-Cantera and DeSantis. Democratic gain. 53 R 47 D
Illinois Kirk R – Democrat Duckworth, an Iraqi War Veteran is fast leaving Republican Kirk in her dust. Democratic gain 52 R 48 D
Nevada Reid D – Joe Heck, a Republican congressman from Nevada has pulled within a single point of Democrat Masto. This race is in the category of a pure tossup. But very little information has been forthcoming from Nevada. For the time being I will keep Nevada as a Democratic hold. 52 R 48 D
New Hampshire Ayotte R – Popular Democratic Governor Hassan is beginning to take charge of this race of the incumbent Ayotte. Democratic gain. 51 R 49 D
North Carolina Burr R – Burr continues to lead all 4 of his Democratic rivals. But two of them, Ross and Shuler have pulled within 4 point of him. The other two trail by double digits. Republican hold 51 R 49 D
Ohio Portman R – On the Democratic side Ted Strickland now has more than a 20 point lead over Sittenfeld and looks like Strickland will be the one to challenge Portman. Strickland actually leads Portman in the latest PPP poll by 3 points. Even so I have confidence in the incumbent Portman will pull this one out. Republican hold. 51 R 49 D
Pennsylvania Toomey R – Although Toomey still leads all three of his potential Democratic rivals by 3 or 4 points, this lead has decreased from double digits in the last two months. But who wins this senate race may depend on whom the Republicans nominate to face Hillary Clinton in the general as that would affect turnout and perhaps coat tails. Be that as it may, the trend is against Toomey without help from the ticket above him. Democratic gain. 50 R 50 D
Wisconsin Johnson R – Democrat Russ Feingold looks like a sure winner with double digit leads in both polls conducted this month. Democratic gain 49 R 51 D
There were no changes this month. The Democrats gain 5 senate seats to regain control of the senate 51-49.
House of Representatives
Currently the House of Representative consists of 247 Republicans and 188 Democrats. For 2016 the Republicans have 23 seats at risk vs. the Democrats 5. The other 410 seats have at least a 90% chance of staying with the party that currently holds them. In the end the Republicans will lose 14 of their 23 at risk seats while the Democrats lose 1 of their 6. The Democrats will have a net gain of 13 seats and the new House will have 234 Republicans to 201 Democrats. The net gain of 13 seats for the Democrats is one more than last month.
Presidential Election
In a matchup of Hillary Clinton vs. the Republican field utilizing party affiliation/identification figures along with favorable/unfavorable ratings and the early polls, Hillary dropped a point and a half from 49.9% to 48.4% this month. But that is still enough for Hillary to continue to lead in the popular vote against the Republican Field 48.4% to 47.4%. Even though Hillary lost that point and one half nationally, she increased her vote total in North Carolina to wrestle that state away from the Republican field to give her a 341-197 victory in the Electoral College. Last month she led the Republican field 326-212. The Electoral College vote does not reflect the true closeness of this race. Today Clinton has a 2 point lead in Florida, a 1 point lead in Ohio, 2 points in Pennsylvania and 2 in North Carolina. A swing of just 3 points in the Republican field’s direction would land those 4 states in their column giving the Republican Field 279 electoral votes, 9 more than the 270 needed to win. Stay tuned.
2015 Electoral Vote Tabulation Hillary Clinton vs. the Republican Field
April Electoral Vote R 238 D 300
May Electoral Vote R 233 D 305
June Electoral Vote R 204 D 334
July Electoral Vote 219 D 319
August Electoral Vote R 248 D 290
September Electoral vote R 241 D 297
October Electoral vote R 212 D 326
November Electoral vote R 197 D 341
