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PEROTISTA’S 2016 SENATE, HOUSE and PRESIDENTIAL FORECAST May 2016

PEROTISTA’S 2016 SENATE, HOUSE and PRESIDENTIAL FORECAST May 2016

Currently there are 54 Republicans and 46 Democrats in the Current Senate.

Safe Democratic seats 8: California, Connecticut, Hawaii, Maryland, New York, Oregon, Vermont, Washington. The Democrats have two at risks seats this election cycle, Colorado and Nevada.

Safe Republican seats (16): Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Missouri, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Utah. The Republicans have eight at risks seats this election cycle, Arizona, Florida, Illinois, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

Arizona McCain R – McCain has taken the lead over Democrat Ann Kirkpatrick 42-36 in the latest PPP poll. But there is a whopping 23% of the vote in the undecided column. Which means this race is way too close to call. I had Arizona as a Democratic pickup last month, but McCain seems to have found his footing. This month I am returning Arizona to the Republican column. Republican hold 54-46.

Colorado Bennet D – There are 5 Republicans fighting to challenge incumbent Bennet. Until we know which one will be the nominee, Colorado remains a Democratic Hold 54 R 46 D

Florida Rubio R – Jolly, DeSantis and Lopez-Cantera continue to battle it out for the Republican nomination. All three are bunched together in the last poll. With 50% of Florida Republicans undecided, there is no favorite among those three. On the Democratic side, Grayson and Murphy are also tied, 35% of Democrats are undecided. Either one could win the Democratic nomination. I have been carrying Florida as a Democratic gain and it will remain so until and if I see a trend develop in favor of the Republicans. Democratic gain. 53 R 47 D

Illinois Kirk R – Kirk is holding his own against Tammy Duckworth, his Democratic opponent. Her lead is but 4 points, 43-39. But I do not expect that to last much longer. I think Duckworth will open up a 10-point lead by the end of July and coast on to victory. Democratic gain 52 R 48 D

Nevada Reid D – Republican Joe Heck has a 44-41 lead over Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto. But Sharon Angle has decided to challenge Heck for the Republican nomination. She took on Senator Reid in 2010 and lost. She is a tea party favorite. What effect she will have on Heck in the upcoming June 14 Republican primary remains to be seen. She plays right into the Democrat’s hand. Democratic hold 52 R 48 D

New Hampshire Ayotte R – Democrat Hassan has taken the leave over the incumbent Ayotte in the latest WBUR poll. This is the first time the Democrat has lead going back to January of this year. The trend in Hassan’s favor continues. Democratic gain 51 R 49 D

North Carolina Burr R – Burr has increased his lead over Democrat Deborah Ross from one point to three 39-36 with Libertarian Candidate Haugh garnering 8% of the vote. Still there are 18% of the electorate undecided. In January Burr had a 11-point lead, but since the entry of the Libertarian candidate, Democrat Ross was able to cut Burr’s lead down to one last month. It seems Burr has finally adjusted to the entry of Haugh into the race. Republican hold 51 R 49 D.

Ohio Portman R – The two latest polls have Democratic challenger Strickland and incumbent Portman tied at 38-38 in one and Strickland up by one, 43-42 in the other. It can’t get any closer. Who wins this race probably depends on who wins Ohio between Trump and Clinton. Clinton has taken the lead over Trump in Ohio in those last two polls and leads by an average of 5 points. I am going with the Democratic challenger, Strickland, because of that. Democratic gain 50 R 50 D

Pennsylvania Toomey R – Katie McGinty has won the Democratic senatorial primary and will face off against Republican Toomey in November. McGinty’s win came as a complete surprise. Toomey has seen his lead evaporate from 11 points two months ago down to one today. McGinty wins. Democratic gain 49 R 51 D

Wisconsin Johnson R – Democrat Russ Feingold has increased his lead over Republican incumbent Johnson to 10 points, 51-41. Johnson had trailed by 6 last month. Democratic gain 48 R 52 D

I made two changes this month, Arizona went back to a Republican hold and Pennsylvania switched from a Republican hold to a Democratic gain. But the numbers remained the same. The Democrats will control the senate by a 52-48 margin.


House of Representatives

Currently the House of Representative consists of 247 Republicans and 188 Democrats. For 2016 the Republicans now have 33 seats at risk, up from 30 last month to 7 for the Democrats which is the same as last month. The Democrats need to gain 30 seats to take over control of the House. That isn’t going to happen. The Democrats will pick up 22 of the GOP’s 33 at risk seats while losing one of their own. That is a net gain of 21 seat is 2 more than last month. The new House will have 226 Republicans to 209 Democrats.

Presidential Election

Using party affiliation/identification figures along with favorable/unfavorable ratings and polls between Clinton and Trump, their party’s leading candidates for their nomination. Here are this month’s results.

There were no new party affiliation numbers released for May. So the popular vote remains the same for April, Clinton 50.8%, Trump 44.9%.



On the Electoral College side, this month I am going to do this differently. In states where either Trump or Clinton have at least a 6-point lead or more, they add up to Clinton 227, Trump 154. 270 electoral votes are needed. Adding the states where one or the other candidate leads by three to five points, the count goes to Clinton 265, Trump 190. Colorado 9 electoral votes, Iowa 6 and Nevada 6 have not been polled or polled more than 4 months ago. The four remaining states, Clinton leads by 2 in Florida, New Hampshire and Virginia. Trump leads in Georgia by 2 points. Given the voting history and party strength in Iowa, Colorado, Nevada, New Hampshire and Virginia, they should end up in the Clinton column. Trump should take Georgia making the electoral count 303-206 in Clinton’s favor. That still leaves Florida to be decided, the ultimate swing or tossup state. Since Hillary leads by 2, I’ll give it to her this month. Making May’s final electoral count Clinton 332, Trump 206.

2016 Electoral Vote Tabulation Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump
January Electoral vote R 244 D 294
February Electoral vote R 244 D 294
March Electoral vote R 200 D 338
April Electoral vote R 200 D 338
May Electoral vote R 206 D 332
 
I was worried that you weren't going to post this month. Thanks for not disappointing me.

Most people get really caught up on the national polls, and seem to think that because Trump has closed the gap, that he has a good shot at winning. Your analysis indicates that maybe we shouldn't pay the national polls a lot of attention since we don't popularly elect our POTUS.
 
imagep;bt3484 said:
I was worried that you weren't going to post this month. Thanks for not disappointing me.

Most people get really caught up on the national polls, and seem to think that because Trump has closed the gap, that he has a good shot at winning. Your analysis indicates that maybe we shouldn't pay the national polls a lot of attention since we don't popularly elect our POTUS.


I kept waiting and waiting on Gallup to release their monthly party affiliation/identification numbers and they never did for May. I use them to figure out the popular vote totals. But you're right, the popular vote means nothing nationwide, just ask Al Gore, Grover Cleveland, Samuel Tildon and Andrew Jackson. All won the popular vote, but lost the presidency to G.W. Bush, Benjamin Harrison, Rutherford Hayes and J. Q. Adams.

We in reality have 50 different presidential election in the 50 different states. We also aren't voting for the person or candidate, but a slate of electors. We just make it easy to figure out by placing the names of the candidates on the ballot. I was an elector for Ross Perot in 1996 in Georgia.

Obama beat Romney 332-206, so not much has really changed comparing this month to 2012. If Trump can win all the states Romney did, Trump then needs to carry Florida and Ohio, that puts him at 253, still shy. Trump is also in a battle for Georgia, he leads by 2, Mississippi, Trump by 3, Missouri, Trump by 2, Arizona Trump by 4. All states Romney won and state Trump must carry in order to win.
 
Any thoughts of you becoming a Johnson elector? He'll tap into the Perot faction out West, especially in the 4-corners and NV. This one could come down to the new House electing a President .
 
NIMBY;bt3486 said:
Any thoughts of you becoming a Johnson elector? He'll tap into the Perot faction out West, especially in the 4-corners and NV. This one could come down to the new House electing a President .


I really haven't given anything like that a thought. I was a elector for Ross back in 1996 here in Georgia. I still claim the Reform Party, not the Libertarian Party. Johnson has my full backing and what few of us old original Reform Party members, I'll try to get them to back Johnson too. One thing is for sure, the disgust, disgust is too weak of a word, among us old Reform Party members for both Trump and Clinton is very, very high. It won't be a problem getting the few of us left to back Johnson.

I have railed big time against both Trump and Clinton on The Political Forum Site. The two major parties have succeeded in nominating two potential criminals for president. Putting classified national security information at risk and fraud for the other.

I think it is high past time to put both those parties on the trash heap of history. Our two party system this year is an complete and utter failure.

Sorry about that, but to answer your question, if asked, I would serve. But the Libertarian Party here in Georgia is quite large compared to other states. Probably 5-8% of the Georgia electorate. The problem is when it comes to presidential elections, they do not vote for their own candidate. They do further down the ballot.
 
Please Link to some of your postings on your new site when you have a spare moment. Thanks again for continuing to post your blog on DP .
 
NIMBY;bt3503 said:
Please Link to some of your postings on your new site when you have a spare moment. Thanks again for continuing to post your blog on DP .


Which of the nearly 8,000 posts would I link you too? You can thank Pol for me continuing to post my forecasts, if she hadn't asked me too I would have been permanently long gone. I'll send you a PM with the site URL, link. You can check it out. I don't think DP wants me to post where I went.
 
NIMBY;bt3503 said:
Please Link to some of your postings on your new site when you have a spare moment. Thanks again for continuing to post your blog on DP .

I tried to send you a PM with the info, but it says your PM inbox is full and has exceeded the number able to receive any more PM's.
 
Should be open now. I'll try to send an e-mail also .
 
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