PEROTISTA’S 2016 SENATE, HOUSE and PRESIDENTIAL FORECAST March 2016
Currently there are 54 Republicans and 46 Democrats in the Current Senate.
Safe Democratic seats 8: California, Connecticut, Hawaii, Maryland, New York, Oregon, Vermont, Washington. The Democrats have two at risks seats this election cycle, Colorado and Nevada.
Safe Republican seats (16): Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Missouri, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Utah. The Republicans have seven at risks seats this election cycle, Florida, Illinois, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
Competitive senate races: With all these presidential primaries going on there has been only 3 senate races that new information was received. They are Arizona, New Hampshire and Ohio. All other senate races remain the same as last month.
Arizona McCain R – McCain leads Democrat Ann Kirkpatrick 38-37. Kirkpatrick over the last two months has closed a 6 point McCain advantage to one. Kirkpatrick is still relative unknown in Arizona, but as she becomes more well known, her numbers improve. I am changing Arizona from a Republican hold to a Democratic gain as it seems Kirkpatrick has the big mo on her side. Democratic gain 53-47
Colorado Bennet D – Bennet looks like a sure winner. I am tempted to place Colorado in the safe Democratic group. But I will hold off for another month. Democratic Hold 53 R 47 D
Florida Rubio R – Jolly looks like he will win the Republican nomination to replace Rubio and Grayson the Democratic senate nomination. These two are in a dead even match up at the present. If I thought either Bush or Rubio would be heading the GOP ticket, I would go with Jolly. But since it looks like Trump, I am sticking with the Democrat. Democratic gain. 52 R 48 D
Illinois Kirk R – With no new polling out of Illinois this month, I am sticking with Democrat Tammy Duckworth to win. Illinois is dark blue and Kirk is not well liked. Democratic gain 51 R 49 D
Nevada Reid D – A two-month old poll has Republican Joe Heck with a 47-37 lead over Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto. Based on that I am sticking with the Republican. Republican gain 52 R 48 D
New Hampshire Ayotte R – Ayotte leads Democratic Governor Hassan 45-41 and 45-40 in the two new recent polls. Looking at the independents, they give Ayotte a plus 20 favorability rating vs. Hassan’s plus 6. Based on this I am switch New Hampshire to a Republican hold. Republican hold 52 R 48 D
North Carolina Burr R – The Republican incumbent continues to lead Democrat Deborah Ross by 10 and 11 points. Republican hold 52 R 48 D
Ohio Portman R – Democratic challenger Strickland continues to lead the incumbent Portman in two new polls, 41-40 and 44-42. This means this race is a dead heat. But independents have a more favorable view of Portman than Strickland. Since I think independents will decide this race, I am staying with Portman. Republican hold 52 R 48 D
Pennsylvania Toomey R – Sestak leads McGinty by 5 points for the Democratic nomination to challenge Toomey. Outside of that there has been no new information coming out of Pennsylvania. Either one of these two Democrats should be able to defeat Toomey in November. Democratic gain. 51 R 49 D
Wisconsin Johnson R – Democrat Russ Feingold has expanded his lead over Johnson to 13 points. No contest in November. Democratic gain 50 R 50 D
This month there were two changes, New Hampshire went from a Democratic gain to a Republican hold and Arizona from a Republican hold to a Democratic gain. Those changes canceled each other out and we still have a 50-50 tie.
House of Representatives
Currently the House of Representative consists of 247 Republicans and 188 Democrats. For 2016 the Republicans have 29 seats at risk vs. the Democrats 7. The other 399 seats have at least a 90% chance of staying with the party that currently holds them. In the end the Republicans will lose 16 of their 29 at risk seats while the Democrats lose 1 of their 7. The Democrats will have a net gain of 15 seats and the new House will have 232 Republicans to 203 Democrats. The net gain of 15 seats for the Democrats is 1 more than last month.
Presidential Election
Using party affiliation/identification figures along with favorable/unfavorable ratings and polls between Clinton and Trump, their party’s leading candidates for their nomination. Here are this month’s results.
Hillary Clinton rose this month from 47.9% to 49.5%. But Donald Trump took a nose dive from 46.3% last month to 42.9% this month. The main reason for Clinton’s lead of 49.5% to 42.9% over Trump was in the number of independents who choose to support her instead of Trump. Clinton leads in the independent vote 45-37 over Trump. Still we have 15% of independents stating they would not vote or vote for someone else if November came down to a Trump vs. Clinton match up. 5% of the total electorate are still stating they would vote for someone else if their choice is between Trump and Clinton, unchanged from last month.
On the Electoral College side there were two major changes, Florida and North Carolina switched from Trump to Clinton this month. With three new polls in each of those two states, Clinton erased a two-point deficit into a 7-point lead in Florida and a 6-point lead in North Carolina. Last month Clinton lead Trump 294 to 244, this month she has extended her lead to 338-200.
2015 Electoral Vote Tabulation Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump
April Electoral Vote R 238 D 300
May Electoral Vote R 233 D 305
June Electoral Vote R 204 D 334
July Electoral Vote 219 D 319
August Electoral Vote R 248 D 290
September Electoral vote R 241 D 297
October Electoral vote R 212 D 326
November Electoral vote R 197 D 341
December Electoral vote R 200 D 338
2016
January Electoral vote R 244 D 294
February Electoral vote R 244 D 294
March Electoral vote R 200 D 338
Currently there are 54 Republicans and 46 Democrats in the Current Senate.
Safe Democratic seats 8: California, Connecticut, Hawaii, Maryland, New York, Oregon, Vermont, Washington. The Democrats have two at risks seats this election cycle, Colorado and Nevada.
Safe Republican seats (16): Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Missouri, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Utah. The Republicans have seven at risks seats this election cycle, Florida, Illinois, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
Competitive senate races: With all these presidential primaries going on there has been only 3 senate races that new information was received. They are Arizona, New Hampshire and Ohio. All other senate races remain the same as last month.
Arizona McCain R – McCain leads Democrat Ann Kirkpatrick 38-37. Kirkpatrick over the last two months has closed a 6 point McCain advantage to one. Kirkpatrick is still relative unknown in Arizona, but as she becomes more well known, her numbers improve. I am changing Arizona from a Republican hold to a Democratic gain as it seems Kirkpatrick has the big mo on her side. Democratic gain 53-47
Colorado Bennet D – Bennet looks like a sure winner. I am tempted to place Colorado in the safe Democratic group. But I will hold off for another month. Democratic Hold 53 R 47 D
Florida Rubio R – Jolly looks like he will win the Republican nomination to replace Rubio and Grayson the Democratic senate nomination. These two are in a dead even match up at the present. If I thought either Bush or Rubio would be heading the GOP ticket, I would go with Jolly. But since it looks like Trump, I am sticking with the Democrat. Democratic gain. 52 R 48 D
Illinois Kirk R – With no new polling out of Illinois this month, I am sticking with Democrat Tammy Duckworth to win. Illinois is dark blue and Kirk is not well liked. Democratic gain 51 R 49 D
Nevada Reid D – A two-month old poll has Republican Joe Heck with a 47-37 lead over Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto. Based on that I am sticking with the Republican. Republican gain 52 R 48 D
New Hampshire Ayotte R – Ayotte leads Democratic Governor Hassan 45-41 and 45-40 in the two new recent polls. Looking at the independents, they give Ayotte a plus 20 favorability rating vs. Hassan’s plus 6. Based on this I am switch New Hampshire to a Republican hold. Republican hold 52 R 48 D
North Carolina Burr R – The Republican incumbent continues to lead Democrat Deborah Ross by 10 and 11 points. Republican hold 52 R 48 D
Ohio Portman R – Democratic challenger Strickland continues to lead the incumbent Portman in two new polls, 41-40 and 44-42. This means this race is a dead heat. But independents have a more favorable view of Portman than Strickland. Since I think independents will decide this race, I am staying with Portman. Republican hold 52 R 48 D
Pennsylvania Toomey R – Sestak leads McGinty by 5 points for the Democratic nomination to challenge Toomey. Outside of that there has been no new information coming out of Pennsylvania. Either one of these two Democrats should be able to defeat Toomey in November. Democratic gain. 51 R 49 D
Wisconsin Johnson R – Democrat Russ Feingold has expanded his lead over Johnson to 13 points. No contest in November. Democratic gain 50 R 50 D
This month there were two changes, New Hampshire went from a Democratic gain to a Republican hold and Arizona from a Republican hold to a Democratic gain. Those changes canceled each other out and we still have a 50-50 tie.
House of Representatives
Currently the House of Representative consists of 247 Republicans and 188 Democrats. For 2016 the Republicans have 29 seats at risk vs. the Democrats 7. The other 399 seats have at least a 90% chance of staying with the party that currently holds them. In the end the Republicans will lose 16 of their 29 at risk seats while the Democrats lose 1 of their 7. The Democrats will have a net gain of 15 seats and the new House will have 232 Republicans to 203 Democrats. The net gain of 15 seats for the Democrats is 1 more than last month.
Presidential Election
Using party affiliation/identification figures along with favorable/unfavorable ratings and polls between Clinton and Trump, their party’s leading candidates for their nomination. Here are this month’s results.
Hillary Clinton rose this month from 47.9% to 49.5%. But Donald Trump took a nose dive from 46.3% last month to 42.9% this month. The main reason for Clinton’s lead of 49.5% to 42.9% over Trump was in the number of independents who choose to support her instead of Trump. Clinton leads in the independent vote 45-37 over Trump. Still we have 15% of independents stating they would not vote or vote for someone else if November came down to a Trump vs. Clinton match up. 5% of the total electorate are still stating they would vote for someone else if their choice is between Trump and Clinton, unchanged from last month.
On the Electoral College side there were two major changes, Florida and North Carolina switched from Trump to Clinton this month. With three new polls in each of those two states, Clinton erased a two-point deficit into a 7-point lead in Florida and a 6-point lead in North Carolina. Last month Clinton lead Trump 294 to 244, this month she has extended her lead to 338-200.
2015 Electoral Vote Tabulation Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump
April Electoral Vote R 238 D 300
May Electoral Vote R 233 D 305
June Electoral Vote R 204 D 334
July Electoral Vote 219 D 319
August Electoral Vote R 248 D 290
September Electoral vote R 241 D 297
October Electoral vote R 212 D 326
November Electoral vote R 197 D 341
December Electoral vote R 200 D 338
2016
January Electoral vote R 244 D 294
February Electoral vote R 244 D 294
March Electoral vote R 200 D 338