PEROTISTA’S 2016 SENATE, HOUSE and PRESIDENTIAL FORECAST July 2015
I will be doing monthly updates from now until election day. These predictions are dynamic and will change month to month. But they will let you know where things stand at the moment.
Currently there are 54 Republicans and 46 Democrats in the Current Senate.
Safe Democratic seats 8: California, Connecticut, Hawaii, Maryland, New York, Oregon, Vermont, Washington. The Democrats have two at risks seats this election cycle, Colorado and Nevada.
Safe Republican seats (16): Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Missouri, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Utah. The Republicans have seven at risks seats this election cycle, Florida, Illinois, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
Competitive senate races:
Arizona McCain R – McCain very well could lose in the primary. In the Republican Primary McCain is up by just 2 points over Salmon and 1 over Schweikert. But if he wins the primary he should win the general. PPP has McCain up at least 6 points over any potential Democratic rival. If McCain were to lose in the primary, all bets are off. Republican Hold 54 R 46 D
Colorado Bennet D – Republican Mike Coffman looks like he will be the one to challenge Bennet. An April poll shows Coffman with a 3 point lead over Bennet. But Bennet is far ahead in the money game. I do not see Coffman pulling off the upset. Democratic Hold 54 R 46 D
Florida Rubio R – Rubio is running for president leaving his senate seat vacant. Not much has changed from last month Grayson and Murphy battle it out for the Democratic nomination and Lopez-Cantera and DeSantis are doing battle on the Republican side. In a recent Quinnipiac poll show either of the two Democrats beating the two Republican potential nominees by 10 and 12 points. Democratic Gain. 53 R 47 D
Illinois Kirk R – It is looking as Republican Kirk will face Democrat Duckworth next year. Duckworth is an Iraq vet and has plenty of money. Bye, bye Kirk. Democratic gain 52 R 48 D
Nevada Reid D – Reid is retiring leaving the seat vacant. Nevada and Colorado are the only Democratic held seat in this election cycle the Republicans have a chance to pick up. Who is running against whom still needs to be sorted out in Nevada? So for the time being I am leaving Nevada as a Democratic hold. 52 R 48 D
New Hampshire Ayotte R – As soon as it looked like Democratic Governor Maggie Hassan would be running against Ayotte, she backed away. Ayotte is up by 6 in the WMUR poll conducted on 23 July 2015. That could change is Hassan takes the plunge. But since it looks like Hassan is backing away, New Hampshire stays as a Republican hold. 52 R 48 D
North Carolina Burr R – Burr has a 10 to 14 point lead over all potential Democratic challengers in the latest PPP poll conducted on 9 July 2015. Republican hold 52 R 48 D
Ohio Portman R – Republican Portman is up by 25 over Democrat Sittenfeld, but trails fellow Democrat Strickland by 6. I have not been able to gather any information on the Democratic primary as to who is ahead and behind. With that unknown, I am keeping Ohio in the Republican Column. 52 R 48 D
Pennsylvania Toomey R – Toomey is up by 11 over Democrat Setak and by 24 over Pawlowski. Toomey having such a big lead at this time is surprising to me. But because of that lead over both his potential Democratic rivals, Pennsylvania will remain a Republican hold. 52 R 48 D
Wisconsin Johnson R – Democrat Russ Feingold is challenging Johnson. Feingold has double digits leads of in both the Marquette and PPP polls. Democratic gain 51 R 49 D
No changes from last month. The net result is the Democrats gain 3 seats cutting the Republican margin down to 51-49.
House of Representatives
Currently the House of Representative consists of 247 Republicans and 188 Democrats. For 2016 the Republicans have 24 seats at risk vs. the Democrats 8. The other 403 seats have at least a 90% chance of staying with the party that currently holds them. In the end the Republicans will lose 14 of their 24 at risk seats while the Democrats lose only 2 of their 8. The Democrats will have a net gain of 12 seats and the new House will have 235 Republicans to 200 Democrats. The net gain of 12 seats for the Democrats is 2 more than last month.
Presidential Election
In a matchup of Hillary Clinton vs. the Republican field utilizing party affiliation/identification figures along with favorable/unfavorable ratings and the early polls, Hillary will win the popular vote 50.3% to 47.7% for the Republican candidate. Hillary dropped 1 full point from last month while the Republican field vote remained the same. In the Electoral College, Hillary wins 319-219. Iowa and Colorado switch from Hillary to the Republican field from last month dropping Ms. Clinton from 334 to 319.
I will be doing monthly updates from now until election day. These predictions are dynamic and will change month to month. But they will let you know where things stand at the moment.
Currently there are 54 Republicans and 46 Democrats in the Current Senate.
Safe Democratic seats 8: California, Connecticut, Hawaii, Maryland, New York, Oregon, Vermont, Washington. The Democrats have two at risks seats this election cycle, Colorado and Nevada.
Safe Republican seats (16): Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Missouri, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Utah. The Republicans have seven at risks seats this election cycle, Florida, Illinois, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
Competitive senate races:
Arizona McCain R – McCain very well could lose in the primary. In the Republican Primary McCain is up by just 2 points over Salmon and 1 over Schweikert. But if he wins the primary he should win the general. PPP has McCain up at least 6 points over any potential Democratic rival. If McCain were to lose in the primary, all bets are off. Republican Hold 54 R 46 D
Colorado Bennet D – Republican Mike Coffman looks like he will be the one to challenge Bennet. An April poll shows Coffman with a 3 point lead over Bennet. But Bennet is far ahead in the money game. I do not see Coffman pulling off the upset. Democratic Hold 54 R 46 D
Florida Rubio R – Rubio is running for president leaving his senate seat vacant. Not much has changed from last month Grayson and Murphy battle it out for the Democratic nomination and Lopez-Cantera and DeSantis are doing battle on the Republican side. In a recent Quinnipiac poll show either of the two Democrats beating the two Republican potential nominees by 10 and 12 points. Democratic Gain. 53 R 47 D
Illinois Kirk R – It is looking as Republican Kirk will face Democrat Duckworth next year. Duckworth is an Iraq vet and has plenty of money. Bye, bye Kirk. Democratic gain 52 R 48 D
Nevada Reid D – Reid is retiring leaving the seat vacant. Nevada and Colorado are the only Democratic held seat in this election cycle the Republicans have a chance to pick up. Who is running against whom still needs to be sorted out in Nevada? So for the time being I am leaving Nevada as a Democratic hold. 52 R 48 D
New Hampshire Ayotte R – As soon as it looked like Democratic Governor Maggie Hassan would be running against Ayotte, she backed away. Ayotte is up by 6 in the WMUR poll conducted on 23 July 2015. That could change is Hassan takes the plunge. But since it looks like Hassan is backing away, New Hampshire stays as a Republican hold. 52 R 48 D
North Carolina Burr R – Burr has a 10 to 14 point lead over all potential Democratic challengers in the latest PPP poll conducted on 9 July 2015. Republican hold 52 R 48 D
Ohio Portman R – Republican Portman is up by 25 over Democrat Sittenfeld, but trails fellow Democrat Strickland by 6. I have not been able to gather any information on the Democratic primary as to who is ahead and behind. With that unknown, I am keeping Ohio in the Republican Column. 52 R 48 D
Pennsylvania Toomey R – Toomey is up by 11 over Democrat Setak and by 24 over Pawlowski. Toomey having such a big lead at this time is surprising to me. But because of that lead over both his potential Democratic rivals, Pennsylvania will remain a Republican hold. 52 R 48 D
Wisconsin Johnson R – Democrat Russ Feingold is challenging Johnson. Feingold has double digits leads of in both the Marquette and PPP polls. Democratic gain 51 R 49 D
No changes from last month. The net result is the Democrats gain 3 seats cutting the Republican margin down to 51-49.
House of Representatives
Currently the House of Representative consists of 247 Republicans and 188 Democrats. For 2016 the Republicans have 24 seats at risk vs. the Democrats 8. The other 403 seats have at least a 90% chance of staying with the party that currently holds them. In the end the Republicans will lose 14 of their 24 at risk seats while the Democrats lose only 2 of their 8. The Democrats will have a net gain of 12 seats and the new House will have 235 Republicans to 200 Democrats. The net gain of 12 seats for the Democrats is 2 more than last month.
Presidential Election
In a matchup of Hillary Clinton vs. the Republican field utilizing party affiliation/identification figures along with favorable/unfavorable ratings and the early polls, Hillary will win the popular vote 50.3% to 47.7% for the Republican candidate. Hillary dropped 1 full point from last month while the Republican field vote remained the same. In the Electoral College, Hillary wins 319-219. Iowa and Colorado switch from Hillary to the Republican field from last month dropping Ms. Clinton from 334 to 319.