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PEROTISTA’S 2016 SENATE, HOUSE and PRESIDENTIAL FORECAST July 2015

PEROTISTA’S 2016 SENATE, HOUSE and PRESIDENTIAL FORECAST July 2015

I will be doing monthly updates from now until election day. These predictions are dynamic and will change month to month. But they will let you know where things stand at the moment.

Currently there are 54 Republicans and 46 Democrats in the Current Senate.

Safe Democratic seats 8: California, Connecticut, Hawaii, Maryland, New York, Oregon, Vermont, Washington. The Democrats have two at risks seats this election cycle, Colorado and Nevada.

Safe Republican seats (16): Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Missouri, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Utah. The Republicans have seven at risks seats this election cycle, Florida, Illinois, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

Competitive senate races:

Arizona McCain R – McCain very well could lose in the primary. In the Republican Primary McCain is up by just 2 points over Salmon and 1 over Schweikert. But if he wins the primary he should win the general. PPP has McCain up at least 6 points over any potential Democratic rival. If McCain were to lose in the primary, all bets are off. Republican Hold 54 R 46 D

Colorado Bennet D – Republican Mike Coffman looks like he will be the one to challenge Bennet. An April poll shows Coffman with a 3 point lead over Bennet. But Bennet is far ahead in the money game. I do not see Coffman pulling off the upset. Democratic Hold 54 R 46 D

Florida Rubio R – Rubio is running for president leaving his senate seat vacant. Not much has changed from last month Grayson and Murphy battle it out for the Democratic nomination and Lopez-Cantera and DeSantis are doing battle on the Republican side. In a recent Quinnipiac poll show either of the two Democrats beating the two Republican potential nominees by 10 and 12 points. Democratic Gain. 53 R 47 D

Illinois Kirk R – It is looking as Republican Kirk will face Democrat Duckworth next year. Duckworth is an Iraq vet and has plenty of money. Bye, bye Kirk. Democratic gain 52 R 48 D

Nevada Reid D – Reid is retiring leaving the seat vacant. Nevada and Colorado are the only Democratic held seat in this election cycle the Republicans have a chance to pick up. Who is running against whom still needs to be sorted out in Nevada? So for the time being I am leaving Nevada as a Democratic hold. 52 R 48 D

New Hampshire Ayotte R – As soon as it looked like Democratic Governor Maggie Hassan would be running against Ayotte, she backed away. Ayotte is up by 6 in the WMUR poll conducted on 23 July 2015. That could change is Hassan takes the plunge. But since it looks like Hassan is backing away, New Hampshire stays as a Republican hold. 52 R 48 D

North Carolina Burr R – Burr has a 10 to 14 point lead over all potential Democratic challengers in the latest PPP poll conducted on 9 July 2015. Republican hold 52 R 48 D

Ohio Portman R – Republican Portman is up by 25 over Democrat Sittenfeld, but trails fellow Democrat Strickland by 6. I have not been able to gather any information on the Democratic primary as to who is ahead and behind. With that unknown, I am keeping Ohio in the Republican Column. 52 R 48 D

Pennsylvania Toomey R – Toomey is up by 11 over Democrat Setak and by 24 over Pawlowski. Toomey having such a big lead at this time is surprising to me. But because of that lead over both his potential Democratic rivals, Pennsylvania will remain a Republican hold. 52 R 48 D

Wisconsin Johnson R – Democrat Russ Feingold is challenging Johnson. Feingold has double digits leads of in both the Marquette and PPP polls. Democratic gain 51 R 49 D

No changes from last month. The net result is the Democrats gain 3 seats cutting the Republican margin down to 51-49.


House of Representatives

Currently the House of Representative consists of 247 Republicans and 188 Democrats. For 2016 the Republicans have 24 seats at risk vs. the Democrats 8. The other 403 seats have at least a 90% chance of staying with the party that currently holds them. In the end the Republicans will lose 14 of their 24 at risk seats while the Democrats lose only 2 of their 8. The Democrats will have a net gain of 12 seats and the new House will have 235 Republicans to 200 Democrats. The net gain of 12 seats for the Democrats is 2 more than last month.

Presidential Election

In a matchup of Hillary Clinton vs. the Republican field utilizing party affiliation/identification figures along with favorable/unfavorable ratings and the early polls, Hillary will win the popular vote 50.3% to 47.7% for the Republican candidate. Hillary dropped 1 full point from last month while the Republican field vote remained the same. In the Electoral College, Hillary wins 319-219. Iowa and Colorado switch from Hillary to the Republican field from last month dropping Ms. Clinton from 334 to 319.
 

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Villiage Idiot
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Nice analysis. Far better and more objective than what I have seen on the news.

So we end up with about the same power situation we have now. Interesting.

Please keep updating.
 

polgara

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Thanks, Pero! :kissy: I sat glued reading your July numbers, and it appears that there is some movement in the polls, even this far out. Do you think Trump may be having an impact on how people think at the moment?
 

Perotista

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imagep;bt3188 said:
Nice analysis. Far better and more objective than what I have seen on the news.

So we end up with about the same power situation we have now. Interesting.

Please keep updating.


I appreciate it. What surprised me on all of this is that the Republicans have 24 seats to defend to the Democrats 10 in the senate. Just looking at the numbers I thought the Democrats would have a much easier time regaining control of the senate. That does not seem to the the case. But it is way too early and we do not know whom the candidates will actually be. So stay tuned.
 
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Perotista

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polgara;bt3189 said:
Thanks, Pero! :kissy: I sat glued reading your July numbers, and it appears that there is some movement in the polls, even this far out. Do you think Trump may be having an impact on how people think at the moment?

Trump, for the Republican field, I would say no. Most favorable/unfavorable polls I have seen on Trump show that he has a bit more than 20% favorable vs 60% unfavorable among all adults. Compare that to Hillary where she is around 40 favorable vs 50 unfavorable. It is that some Republicans have fell in love with Trump, not independents or anyone else. In the latest head to head match up betweet Trump and Clinton, Trump loses 34-54. His showing is the worst among any of the potential nominees that has been polled in a head to head match up with Hillary.
 

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Perotista;bt3191 said:
Trump, for the Republican field, I would say no. Most favorable/unfavorable polls I have seen on Trump show that he has a bit more than 20% favorable vs 60% unfavorable among all adults. Compare that to Hillary where she is around 40 favorable vs 50 unfavorable. It is that some Republicans have fell in love with Trump, not independents or anyone else. In the latest head to head match up betweet Trump and Clinton, Trump loses 34-54. His showing is the worst among any of the potential nominees that has been polled in a head to head match up with Hillary.

I would assume that as soon as some of the competition starts dropping out of the race, the other front runners will pick up their votes, and their numbers should start to exceed Trumps.

But I do suspect that Trump could pick up a lot of swing voters and moderates if he heads in the right direction. From everything I have read about him, he's not really partisan at all. I'm thinking that it's possible he might be a contender right up to the convention. I totally disagree with much of what Trump has said, but I'm still excited about him being in the race, just because I don't see him as being partisan. Surely there are other swing voters who feel the same way.
 

haymarket

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Great job. I am always amazed at the work andethought you put into these things. I look forward to reading them over the next year plus.

I think the Pennsylvania Senate seat could go Democratic - and that would make it 50/50.
 

Perotista

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imagep;bt3192 said:
I would assume that as soon as some of the competition starts dropping out of the race, the other front runners will pick up their votes, and their numbers should start to exceed Trumps.

But I do suspect that Trump could pick up a lot of swing voters and moderates if he heads in the right direction. From everything I have read about him, he's not really partisan at all. I'm thinking that it's possible he might be a contender right up to the convention. I totally disagree with much of what Trump has said, but I'm still excited about him being in the race, just because I don't see him as being partisan. Surely there are other swing voters who feel the same way.

Trump being in the race is a good thing. I just do not think he can last or be in all the way to the convention. He has excited a lot of the Republican base. Trump is different to put it mildly. You're probably right that he isn't that much of a partisan. We also have seen Carson bring a lot of excitement to the GOP base for a couple of weeks and then drop way back. So time will tell about Trump.
 

Perotista

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haymarket;bt3193 said:
Great job. I am always amazed at the work andethought you put into these things. I look forward to reading them over the next year plus.

I think the Pennsylvania Senate seat could go Democratic - and that would make it 50/50.

Looking at Toomey's lead in PA, that is a mild surprise. I am sure once the campaign starts it will be as you say 50-50 and perhaps with a definite Democratic tilt. There is a lot of firming up in these races that need to be done. For the Democrats in PA, it may depend on how excited they are about their presidential nominee which will bring out the larger Democratic base.

I suppose the same could be said of the Republicans especially since there are less of them in PA. But their dislike of Hillary will probably be enough to get most of them out to the polls. We shall see.
 
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