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PEROTISTA’S 2016 SENATE, HOUSE and PRESIDENTIAL FORECAST January 2016

PEROTISTA’S 2016 SENATE, HOUSE and PRESIDENTIAL FORECAST January 2016

Currently there are 54 Republicans and 46 Democrats in the Current Senate.

Safe Democratic seats 8: California, Connecticut, Hawaii, Maryland, New York, Oregon, Vermont, Washington. The Democrats have two at risks seats this election cycle, Colorado and Nevada.

Safe Republican seats (16): Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Missouri, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Utah. The Republicans have seven at risks seats this election cycle, Florida, Illinois, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

Competitive senate races:

The only new information on the senate races this month is on Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina and Ohio. All other senate races remain the same as they were last month.

Arizona McCain R – McCain has jumped to a double digit lead in his primary race over Ward and is now the clear cut favorite to gain the nomination. McCain leads Democrat Carmona by 6, but that is an old poll taken back in May. I haven’t able to find any new polling information. Hence, Arizona remains a Republican Hold. 54 R 46 D

Colorado Bennet D – Chaos continues on the Republican side, word has it that George Brauchler has declined to run. As of now, the GOP doesn’t have a slightest of idea of who will challenge Bennet and his united Democratic Party. Democratic Hold 54 R 46 D

Florida Rubio R – The Democratic duo of Grayson and Murphy who are vying for that party’s nomination hold an average of a 7 point lead over the two Republican hopefuls Lopez-Cantera and DeSantis. Democratic gain. 53 R 47 D

Illinois Kirk R – Incumbent Kirk has pulled within 6 point of Democrat Duckworth, an Iraqi War Veteran. A surprising turn of events as last month it looked like Duckworth was a shoe in. Still I am predicting Duckworth in an easy victory in a very deep blue state. Democratic gain 52 R 48 D

Nevada Reid D – A new Gravis Marketing polls shows Republican Joe Heck with a 47-37 lead over Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto. I am changing Nevada from a Democratic hold to a Republican gain. 53 R 47 D

New Hampshire Ayotte R – In the latest PPP poll shows Ayotte up 44-42 over Popular Democratic Governor Hassan. PPP’s previous poll had the race a dead heat at 42 apiece. Even so, I am sticking with the Democrat Hassan to beat the Republican incumbent Ayotte. New Hampshire has been trending Democratic over the last decade to 15 years. Democratic gain. 52 R 48 D

North Carolina Burr R – Deborah Ross looks like a sure winner of the Democratic primary to challenge incumbent Burr. Burr has a double digit lead in the last three polls over Ross. Republican hold 52 R 48 D

Ohio Portman R – On the Democratic side Ted Strickland with a 50-point lead over Sittenfeld looks like a shoe in to challenge Portman. Strickland also lead by 2 and 3 points in the latest polls vs. Portman. That is within the margin of error on both polls. I am sticking with the incumbent Portman. Republican hold 52 R 48 D

Pennsylvania Toomey R – With no new polling within the last month, Toomey’s lead is the same as last month, 3 or 4 points. I do not expect that to last. Two months ago I changed Pennsylvania from a Republican hold to a Democratic gain and I am sticking with that. Democratic gain. 51 R 49 D

Wisconsin Johnson R – Democrat Russ Feingold is up by 11 in the latest poll and he will be returning to the senate. Democratic gain 50 R 50 D

The big change this month is in Nevada where I changed that state from a Democratic hold to a Republican gain. This leaves the senate in a 50-50 tie. Which party will control the senate will depend on who wins the presidency as the vice president will be casting the deciding vote in almost everything that happens in the senate.


House of Representatives

Currently the House of Representative consists of 247 Republicans and 188 Democrats. For 2016 the Republicans have 26 seats at risk vs. the Democrats 7. The other 402 seats have at least a 90% chance of staying with the party that currently holds them. In the end the Republicans will lose 14 of their 26 at risk seats while the Democrats lose 3 of their 7. The Democrats will have a net gain of 11 seats and the new House will have 236 Republicans to 199 Democrats. The net gain of 11 seats for the Democrats is 2 less than last month.

Presidential Election

Using party affiliation/identification figures along with favorable/unfavorable ratings and polls between Clinton and Trump, their party’s leading candidates for their nomination. Here are this month’s results.


Hillary dropped from 49.4% last month to an even 49.0% this month, Trump rose from 45.2 to 47.6%. The biggest reason for Trump’s rise was in the independent lean Republican figures, they rose from 14% to 18%. Independents lean Democrat remained at 16% of the electorate, the same as last month. Both Party’s base vote dropped by one point this month. The Democrats from 30% of the electorate to 29% and the Republicans from 27% to 26. Independents rose from 40% to 44%.
On the Electoral College side, Trump has taken over the lead in Florida and North Carolina from Clinton placing them in the Republican’s column. This month’s electoral college vote is Clinton 294, Trump 244. Last months was 338 to 200 Clinton. The swing state/tossup’s have Trump ahead in Florida, North Carolina and Colorado. Clinton leading in New Hampshire, Virginia, Ohio, Iowa and Nevada. The other 42 states and D.C. seem pretty much set in stone.

2015 Electoral Vote Tabulation Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump
April Electoral Vote R 238 D 300
May Electoral Vote R 233 D 305
June Electoral Vote R 204 D 334
July Electoral Vote 219 D 319
August Electoral Vote R 248 D 290
September Electoral vote R 241 D 297
October Electoral vote R 212 D 326
November Electoral vote R 197 D 341
December Electoral vote R 200 D 338
2016
January Electoral vote R 244 D 294
 

polgara

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Thanks again for all your hard work on this, Pero! It is interesting to see the GOP jump in electoral votes from November to January, too. I'm trying to remember what might have caused this...
 

Perotista

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polgara;bt3403 said:
Thanks again for all your hard work on this, Pero! It is interesting to see the GOP jump in electoral votes from November to January, too. I'm trying to remember what might have caused this...

Howdy Pol, the answer is simple. In December Iowa changed from Trump to Clinton and Colorado from Clinton to Trump. Colorado has 9 electoral votes and Iowa 6. So Trump jumped from 197 to 200. Trump lost 6 but added 9, net gain of 3.

In January Florida which has 29 electoral votes and North Carolina which has 15 for a total of 44 changed from the Clinton column into the Trump column. Add the 44 to Trump's total of 200 for 244 and subtract 44 from Clinton's total.

Expect a lot of changes like this in the 8 swing states, the leads are small with the exceptions of New Hampshire and Virginia where Clinton has a double digit leads. The other 6 swing states are all within 5 points which means they could change with ease.

If Clinton continues to lead by double digits in New Hampshire and Virginia, this election may come down to just six states in which the GOP candidate would have to win all six to win the election. As I stated in the blog, the other 42 states along with D.C. are pretty much set in stone.

But all it take is one major event, one unforeseen happening that could turn everything up on its ear. So stay tuned.
 

CanadaJohn

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Thanks for your continued updates Pero - always enjoy reading them.

I'm still of the opinion that the race for the Senate depends on whom the Republicans choose as their Presidential nominee. A poor choice, and at the present time it looks like it might be a poor one, will be disastrous down ticket. A strong choice will solidify and potentially increase their hold on the Senate.

Hope you're well - take care and have fun
 

polgara

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You suggested in your January post that "one unforeseen happening could change everything up on its ear, so I should stay tuned." Ha! Try and stop me! :lamo: I probably start looking for your latest entry before you have even seen all the polls yet! Keep up the good work, luv. I miss you. Happy Valentines Day!
 

Linc

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It looks like that unforeseen thing Polgara was talking about just happened with the death of Justice Scalia.

GOP Senators at risk sustaining the McConnell/Cruz filibuster--though Mitch will figure out a way to give those like Kirk, Toomey, Johnson, and Ayotte a pass.

It's been about a week, but the favorite in the Indiana GOP primary is having petition problems in the heavily DEM 1st C.D.

OTOH, DEMs are still their worst enemy with voter turnout.
And now the prospect of Burnee voters staying home if he loses the nomination.
Take care old friend--I'll send a PM ASAP .
 

Perotista

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NIMBY;bt3411 said:
It looks like that unforeseen thing Polgara was talking about just happened with the death of Justice Scalia.

GOP Senators at risk sustaining the McConnell/Cruz filibuster--though Mitch will figure out a way to give those like Kirk, Toomey, Johnson, and Ayotte a pass.

It's been about a week, but the favorite in the Indiana GOP primary is having petition problems in the heavily DEM 1st C.D.

OTOH, DEMs are still their worst enemy with voter turnout.
And now the prospect of Burnee voters staying home if he loses the nomination.
Take care old friend--I'll send a PM ASAP .


What I have been talking about all the time on my political site home is how disliked both Trump and Clinton are disliked by independents. Both have a 60% unfavorable rating give or take a point or two depending on the poll. In fact one poll showed 20% of all independents either not voting, staying home or voting third party if both major parties insist on nominating Trump and Clinton. The feel here is that we will have a less than 50% voter turn out because of the dislike for both candidates.

In fact Trump is disliked by 37% of Republicans going by unfavorable ratings and 30% of them stated they would never vote for Trump. Hillary is at 22% unfavorables among Democrats only. That is pretty high. That reminds me of a joke, "If god wanted people to vote, he would have given us candidates."

In fact another polls show that 61% of Americans, all Americans wanted the Republicans to nominate someone else besides Trump and 58% of all Americans wanted the Democrats to nominate someone else than Hillary. But it is the Republicans and Democrats who choose their nominees, not all Americans. Yep, look for voter turnout to be below 50%.

If my choices are Trump/Clinton I am voting third party again like I did in 2012. I will not have a hand in putting either Trump or Clinton in the White House. If that is the best our two party system can offer, this country deserves to come to an end or at least that political system. For the record, my ideal match up for November would be John Kasich vs. Jim Webb. But that ain't gonna happen.
 
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