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PEROTISTA’S 2016 SENATE, HOUSE and PRESIDENTIAL FORECAST December 2015 (1 Viewer)

PEROTISTA’S 2016 SENATE, HOUSE and PRESIDENTIAL FORECAST December 2015

Currently there are 54 Republicans and 46 Democrats in the Current Senate.

Safe Democratic seats 8: California, Connecticut, Hawaii, Maryland, New York, Oregon, Vermont, Washington. The Democrats have two at risks seats this election cycle, Colorado and Nevada.

Safe Republican seats (16): Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Missouri, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Utah. The Republicans have seven at risks seats this election cycle, Florida, Illinois, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

Competitive senate races:

Arizona McCain R – McCain has jumped to a double digit lead in his primary race over Ward and is now the clear cut favorite to gain the nomination. McCain leads Democrat Carmona by 6, but that is an old poll taken back in May. I haven’t able to find any new polling information. Hence, Arizona remains a Republican Hold. 54 R 46 D

Colorado Bennet D – Chaos continues on the Republican side, word has it that George Brauchler has declined to run. As of now, the GOP doesn’t have a slightest of idea of who will challenge Bennet and his united Democratic Party. Democratic Hold 54 R 46 D

Florida Rubio R – The Democratic duo of Grayson and Murphy who are vying for that party’s nomination hold an average of a 7 point lead over the two Republican hopefuls Lopez-Cantera and DeSantis. Democratic gain. 53 R 47 D

Illinois Kirk R – Incumbent Kirk has pulled within 6 point of Democrat Duckworth, an Iraqi War Veteran. A surprising turn of events as last month it looked like Duckworth was a shoe in. Still I am predicting Duckworth in an easy victory in a very deep blue state. Democratic gain 52 R 48 D

Nevada Reid D – Two polls out of Nevada conducted within a day of each other show completely different results. In one, Republican Joe Heck is 12 points ahead of Democrat Masto and the other has the Democrat ahead by 8. One of these polls is really off. Until more information comes out of Nevada I am keeping it as a Democratic hold. 52 R 48 D

New Hampshire Ayotte R – This has become a very tight race between Popular Democratic Governor Hassan and the Republican incumbent Ayotte. The latest December poll has the race dead even, 42-42. Still I am going with the Democrat Hassan as New Hampshire has turned light blue if not a slighter darker shade. Democratic gain. 51 R 49 D

North Carolina Burr R – Burr has pulled out to a double digit lead over his potential Democratic rivals Ross and Shuler. Republican hold 51 R 49 D

Ohio Portman R – On the Democratic side Ted Strickland now has more than a 20 point lead over Sittenfeld and looks like Strickland will be the one to challenge Portman. Strickland actually leads Portman in the latest PPP poll by 3 points. Even so I have confidence in the incumbent Portman will pull this one out. Republican hold. 51 R 49 D

Pennsylvania Toomey R – With no new polling within the last month, Toomey’s lead is the same as last month, 3 or 4 points. I do not expect that to last. Two months ago I changed Pennsylvania from a Republican hold to a Democratic gain and I am sticking with that. Democratic gain. 50 R 50 D

Wisconsin Johnson R – Democrat Russ Feingold is up by 11 in the latest poll and he will be returning to the senate. Democratic gain 49 R 51 D

There were no changes this month. The Democrats gain 5 senate seats to regain control of the senate 51-49.


House of Representatives

Currently the House of Representative consists of 247 Republicans and 188 Democrats. For 2016 the Republicans have 21 seats at risk vs. the Democrats 4. The other 413 seats have at least a 90% chance of staying with the party that currently holds them. In the end the Republicans will lose 14 of their 21 at risk seats while the Democrats lose 1 of their 4. The Democrats will have a net gain of 13 seats and the new House will have 234 Republicans to 201 Democrats. The net gain of 13 seats for the Democrats represents no change from last month.

Presidential Election

This month I decided to make this a match up between Trump and Clinton instead of the Republican Field utilizing party affiliation/identification figures along with favorable/unfavorable ratings and the polls featuring the figures of Trump vs Clinton and ignore all other candidates.


Hillary rose 48.4 to 49.4 this month and Trump garnered 45.2% compared to the Republican Field’s total of 47.4 last month. The reason the total vote count comes to 94.6 instead of the normal 98% with the rest going to third parties is that at the moment 12% of independents said they would not vote or vote third party if the election came down to Trump vs. Clinton. Both Trump and Clinton have close to 60% unfavorable ratings among independents. Independents just do not like either candidate pure and simple.
On the Electoral College side, Clinton reversed Iowa, winning there while Trump took Colorado away from Hillary. That change left Hillary with 338 Electoral Votes vs Trump’s 200. Last month is was 341-197 Clinton.

2015 Electoral Vote Tabulation Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump
April Electoral Vote R 238 D 300
May Electoral Vote R 233 D 305
June Electoral Vote R 204 D 334
July Electoral Vote 219 D 319
August Electoral Vote R 248 D 290
September Electoral vote R 241 D 297
October Electoral vote R 212 D 326
November Electoral vote R 197 D 341
December Electoral vote R 200 D 338
 
Thanks again, Pero. I've been anxiously checking to see what you think of this screwed up mess in DC, with Trump surprisingly holding his lead this long, and Hillary's problems with the FBI involved in things. Sure is keeping both parties on edge at the moment!

Merry Christmas to you and yours, luv! :kissy:
 
polgara;bt3383 said:
Thanks again, Pero. I've been anxiously checking to see what you think of this screwed up mess in DC, with Trump surprisingly holding his lead this long, and Hillary's problems with the FBI involved in things. Sure is keeping both parties on edge at the moment!

Merry Christmas to you and yours, luv! :kissy:


Howdy Pol, Trumps leading so far is a big surprise. He has used attacking political correctness to get him where he is today. However Cruz has narrowed the gap in Iowa to a couple of points and if the poll released today by Quinnipiac is correct, Trump’s national lead over Cruz is down to 4 points, 28-24. I can understand Iowa where Evangelicals make up about half of the Republican Primary vote there. Evangelicals going for Cruz is a no brainier. Last I look Cruz lead 32-18 over Trump among Evangelicals in Iowa. I haven’t had a chance to go inside the new Quinnipiac poll yet, so I can’t tell you where Trump lost some of his support and Cruz picked up some.

What is really interesting in the 3 polls released in the last 3 days, Fox, PPP and Quinnipiac, all had Hillary beating Trump between 7 to 11 points. All had Hillary winning the independent vote about 10 points with another 10 or a bit more of the independents stating they would not vote in a Trump vs. Clinton match up. Correspondingly, Rubio, Carson and Cruz are either tied or beating Clinton in a head to head match up in all three polls.

This has been a constant for the last two to three months. Other candidates beating Hillary, Trump losing. It’s still early, but this is not a good sign. Unless Trump does something to gather more support from independents, if he wins the nomination it may not mean much. But as we get closer to Iowa and the real primaries, I expect voters to start paying closer attention. That may change the dynamics completely or maybe not. Time will tell to use my favorite expression.
 

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