PEROTISTA’S 2016 SENATE, HOUSE and PRESIDENTIAL FORECAST August 2015
Currently there are 54 Republicans and 46 Democrats in the Current Senate.
Safe Democratic seats 8: California, Connecticut, Hawaii, Maryland, New York, Oregon, Vermont, Washington. The Democrats have two at risks seats this election cycle, Colorado and Nevada.
Safe Republican seats (16): Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Missouri, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Utah. The Republicans have seven at risks seats this election cycle, Florida, Illinois, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
Competitive senate races:
Arizona McCain R – Salmon and Schweikert are giving McCain all he wants and more in McCain’s quest for the Republican nomination. McCain is up by just 2 points over Salmon and 1 over Schweikert. If McCain wins the Republican primary he should breeze to another six year term. If not, all bets are off. Republican Hold 54 R 46 D
Colorado Bennet D – On the Republican side it is either Mike Coffman or Cynthia Coffman who will be challenging Democratic incumbent Bennet. Whichever one wins the Republican nod, they will be facing a well-financed Bennet. Democratic Hold 54 R 46 D
Florida Rubio R – Rubio is running for president leaving his senate seat vacant. No change from last month Grayson and Murphy battle it out for the Democratic nomination and Lopez-Cantera and DeSantis are doing battle on the Republican side. In a recent Quinnipiac poll show either of the two Democrats beating the two Republican potential nominees by 10 and 12 points. Democratic Gain. 53 R 47 D
Illinois Kirk R – It is looking as Republican Kirk will face Democrat Duckworth next year. Duckworth is an Iraq vet and has plenty of money. Duckworth leads Kirk by 6 points in the latest PPP poll. Bye, bye Kirk. Democratic gain 52 R 48 D
Nevada Reid D – Reid is retiring leaving the seat vacant. Nevada and Colorado are the only Democratic held seat in this election cycle the Republicans have a chance to pick up. Who is running against whom still needs to be sorted out in Nevada? So for the time being I am leaving Nevada as a Democratic hold. 52 R 48 D
New Hampshire Ayotte R – Ayotte has solidified her lead again Democratic Governor Maggie Hassan. Ayotte leads by 6 and 8 points in the latest polls conducted at the end of July. Republican hold. 52 R 48 D
North Carolina Burr R – Burr has a 10 to 14 point lead over all potential Democratic challengers. Republican hold 52 R 48 D
Ohio Portman R – Strickland and Sittenfeld are battling it out for the Democratic senate nomination to take on Portman. Portman trails Strickland by 3, but leads Sittenfeld by 21. Even if Strickland comes out on top in the Democratic Race, Portman will still win. Republican Hold 52 R 48 D
Pennsylvania Toomey R – In an August 23 poll Toomey is up by 14 over Democrat Setak and by 16 over McGinty. I expect this race to narrow regardless of whom is the Democratic nominee, but Toomey the incumbent will hang on by the skin of his teeth. Republican hold. 52 R 48 D
Wisconsin Johnson R – Democrat Russ Feingold is challenging Johnson. Feingold had a double digit lead over Johnson last month in two polls. But the latest Marquette Poll places Johnson within 5. Even though Johnson has cut deep into Feingold’s lead, I am still going with Feingold. Wisconsin is a deep blue state and unless Walker is the GOP presidential nominee or its VP candidate, Feingold will win. Democratic gain 51 R 49 D
No changes from last month. The net result is the Democrats gain 3 seats cutting the Republican margin down to 51-49.
House of Representatives
Currently the House of Representative consists of 247 Republicans and 188 Democrats. For 2016 the Republicans have 25 seats at risk vs. the Democrats 7. The other 403 seats have at least a 90% chance of staying with the party that currently holds them. In the end the Republicans will lose 14 of their 25 at risk seats while the Democrats lose only 2 of their 7. The Democrats will have a net gain of 12 seats and the new House will have 235 Republicans to 200 Democrats. The net gain of 12 seats for the Democrats is the same as last month.
Presidential Election
In a matchup of Hillary Clinton vs. the Republican field utilizing party affiliation/identification figures along with favorable/unfavorable ratings and the early polls, Hillary will win the popular vote 50.9% to 47.9% for the Republican candidate. Hillary rose two tenth’s (00.2) of a point from last month while the Republican field also rose two tenth of a point (00.2) from last month. In the Electoral College, Hillary wins 290-248. Iowa and Colorado switch from the Republican Field back to Hillary while North Carolina and Florida switched from Hillary to the Republican Field from last month dropping Ms. Clinton from 319 to 290.
Presidential Electoral Vote Change History of Hillary Clinton vs. the Republican Field predictions.
April 15 Electoral Vote R 238 D 300
May 15 Electoral Vote R 233 D 305
June 15 Electoral Vote R 204 D 334
July 15 Electoral Vote 219 D 319
August 15 Electoral Vote R 248 D 290
Currently there are 54 Republicans and 46 Democrats in the Current Senate.
Safe Democratic seats 8: California, Connecticut, Hawaii, Maryland, New York, Oregon, Vermont, Washington. The Democrats have two at risks seats this election cycle, Colorado and Nevada.
Safe Republican seats (16): Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Missouri, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Utah. The Republicans have seven at risks seats this election cycle, Florida, Illinois, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
Competitive senate races:
Arizona McCain R – Salmon and Schweikert are giving McCain all he wants and more in McCain’s quest for the Republican nomination. McCain is up by just 2 points over Salmon and 1 over Schweikert. If McCain wins the Republican primary he should breeze to another six year term. If not, all bets are off. Republican Hold 54 R 46 D
Colorado Bennet D – On the Republican side it is either Mike Coffman or Cynthia Coffman who will be challenging Democratic incumbent Bennet. Whichever one wins the Republican nod, they will be facing a well-financed Bennet. Democratic Hold 54 R 46 D
Florida Rubio R – Rubio is running for president leaving his senate seat vacant. No change from last month Grayson and Murphy battle it out for the Democratic nomination and Lopez-Cantera and DeSantis are doing battle on the Republican side. In a recent Quinnipiac poll show either of the two Democrats beating the two Republican potential nominees by 10 and 12 points. Democratic Gain. 53 R 47 D
Illinois Kirk R – It is looking as Republican Kirk will face Democrat Duckworth next year. Duckworth is an Iraq vet and has plenty of money. Duckworth leads Kirk by 6 points in the latest PPP poll. Bye, bye Kirk. Democratic gain 52 R 48 D
Nevada Reid D – Reid is retiring leaving the seat vacant. Nevada and Colorado are the only Democratic held seat in this election cycle the Republicans have a chance to pick up. Who is running against whom still needs to be sorted out in Nevada? So for the time being I am leaving Nevada as a Democratic hold. 52 R 48 D
New Hampshire Ayotte R – Ayotte has solidified her lead again Democratic Governor Maggie Hassan. Ayotte leads by 6 and 8 points in the latest polls conducted at the end of July. Republican hold. 52 R 48 D
North Carolina Burr R – Burr has a 10 to 14 point lead over all potential Democratic challengers. Republican hold 52 R 48 D
Ohio Portman R – Strickland and Sittenfeld are battling it out for the Democratic senate nomination to take on Portman. Portman trails Strickland by 3, but leads Sittenfeld by 21. Even if Strickland comes out on top in the Democratic Race, Portman will still win. Republican Hold 52 R 48 D
Pennsylvania Toomey R – In an August 23 poll Toomey is up by 14 over Democrat Setak and by 16 over McGinty. I expect this race to narrow regardless of whom is the Democratic nominee, but Toomey the incumbent will hang on by the skin of his teeth. Republican hold. 52 R 48 D
Wisconsin Johnson R – Democrat Russ Feingold is challenging Johnson. Feingold had a double digit lead over Johnson last month in two polls. But the latest Marquette Poll places Johnson within 5. Even though Johnson has cut deep into Feingold’s lead, I am still going with Feingold. Wisconsin is a deep blue state and unless Walker is the GOP presidential nominee or its VP candidate, Feingold will win. Democratic gain 51 R 49 D
No changes from last month. The net result is the Democrats gain 3 seats cutting the Republican margin down to 51-49.
House of Representatives
Currently the House of Representative consists of 247 Republicans and 188 Democrats. For 2016 the Republicans have 25 seats at risk vs. the Democrats 7. The other 403 seats have at least a 90% chance of staying with the party that currently holds them. In the end the Republicans will lose 14 of their 25 at risk seats while the Democrats lose only 2 of their 7. The Democrats will have a net gain of 12 seats and the new House will have 235 Republicans to 200 Democrats. The net gain of 12 seats for the Democrats is the same as last month.
Presidential Election
In a matchup of Hillary Clinton vs. the Republican field utilizing party affiliation/identification figures along with favorable/unfavorable ratings and the early polls, Hillary will win the popular vote 50.9% to 47.9% for the Republican candidate. Hillary rose two tenth’s (00.2) of a point from last month while the Republican field also rose two tenth of a point (00.2) from last month. In the Electoral College, Hillary wins 290-248. Iowa and Colorado switch from the Republican Field back to Hillary while North Carolina and Florida switched from Hillary to the Republican Field from last month dropping Ms. Clinton from 319 to 290.
Presidential Electoral Vote Change History of Hillary Clinton vs. the Republican Field predictions.
April 15 Electoral Vote R 238 D 300
May 15 Electoral Vote R 233 D 305
June 15 Electoral Vote R 204 D 334
July 15 Electoral Vote 219 D 319
August 15 Electoral Vote R 248 D 290