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PEROTISTA’S 2016 SENATE, HOUSE and PRESIDENTIAL FORECAST August 2015

PEROTISTA’S 2016 SENATE, HOUSE and PRESIDENTIAL FORECAST August 2015

Currently there are 54 Republicans and 46 Democrats in the Current Senate.

Safe Democratic seats 8: California, Connecticut, Hawaii, Maryland, New York, Oregon, Vermont, Washington. The Democrats have two at risks seats this election cycle, Colorado and Nevada.

Safe Republican seats (16): Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Missouri, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Utah. The Republicans have seven at risks seats this election cycle, Florida, Illinois, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

Competitive senate races:

Arizona McCain R – Salmon and Schweikert are giving McCain all he wants and more in McCain’s quest for the Republican nomination. McCain is up by just 2 points over Salmon and 1 over Schweikert. If McCain wins the Republican primary he should breeze to another six year term. If not, all bets are off. Republican Hold 54 R 46 D

Colorado Bennet D – On the Republican side it is either Mike Coffman or Cynthia Coffman who will be challenging Democratic incumbent Bennet. Whichever one wins the Republican nod, they will be facing a well-financed Bennet. Democratic Hold 54 R 46 D

Florida Rubio R – Rubio is running for president leaving his senate seat vacant. No change from last month Grayson and Murphy battle it out for the Democratic nomination and Lopez-Cantera and DeSantis are doing battle on the Republican side. In a recent Quinnipiac poll show either of the two Democrats beating the two Republican potential nominees by 10 and 12 points. Democratic Gain. 53 R 47 D

Illinois Kirk R – It is looking as Republican Kirk will face Democrat Duckworth next year. Duckworth is an Iraq vet and has plenty of money. Duckworth leads Kirk by 6 points in the latest PPP poll. Bye, bye Kirk. Democratic gain 52 R 48 D

Nevada Reid D – Reid is retiring leaving the seat vacant. Nevada and Colorado are the only Democratic held seat in this election cycle the Republicans have a chance to pick up. Who is running against whom still needs to be sorted out in Nevada? So for the time being I am leaving Nevada as a Democratic hold. 52 R 48 D

New Hampshire Ayotte R – Ayotte has solidified her lead again Democratic Governor Maggie Hassan. Ayotte leads by 6 and 8 points in the latest polls conducted at the end of July. Republican hold. 52 R 48 D

North Carolina Burr R – Burr has a 10 to 14 point lead over all potential Democratic challengers. Republican hold 52 R 48 D

Ohio Portman R – Strickland and Sittenfeld are battling it out for the Democratic senate nomination to take on Portman. Portman trails Strickland by 3, but leads Sittenfeld by 21. Even if Strickland comes out on top in the Democratic Race, Portman will still win. Republican Hold 52 R 48 D

Pennsylvania Toomey R – In an August 23 poll Toomey is up by 14 over Democrat Setak and by 16 over McGinty. I expect this race to narrow regardless of whom is the Democratic nominee, but Toomey the incumbent will hang on by the skin of his teeth. Republican hold. 52 R 48 D

Wisconsin Johnson R – Democrat Russ Feingold is challenging Johnson. Feingold had a double digit lead over Johnson last month in two polls. But the latest Marquette Poll places Johnson within 5. Even though Johnson has cut deep into Feingold’s lead, I am still going with Feingold. Wisconsin is a deep blue state and unless Walker is the GOP presidential nominee or its VP candidate, Feingold will win. Democratic gain 51 R 49 D

No changes from last month. The net result is the Democrats gain 3 seats cutting the Republican margin down to 51-49.


House of Representatives

Currently the House of Representative consists of 247 Republicans and 188 Democrats. For 2016 the Republicans have 25 seats at risk vs. the Democrats 7. The other 403 seats have at least a 90% chance of staying with the party that currently holds them. In the end the Republicans will lose 14 of their 25 at risk seats while the Democrats lose only 2 of their 7. The Democrats will have a net gain of 12 seats and the new House will have 235 Republicans to 200 Democrats. The net gain of 12 seats for the Democrats is the same as last month.

Presidential Election

In a matchup of Hillary Clinton vs. the Republican field utilizing party affiliation/identification figures along with favorable/unfavorable ratings and the early polls, Hillary will win the popular vote 50.9% to 47.9% for the Republican candidate. Hillary rose two tenth’s (00.2) of a point from last month while the Republican field also rose two tenth of a point (00.2) from last month. In the Electoral College, Hillary wins 290-248. Iowa and Colorado switch from the Republican Field back to Hillary while North Carolina and Florida switched from Hillary to the Republican Field from last month dropping Ms. Clinton from 319 to 290.

Presidential Electoral Vote Change History of Hillary Clinton vs. the Republican Field predictions.

April 15 Electoral Vote R 238 D 300
May 15 Electoral Vote R 233 D 305
June 15 Electoral Vote R 204 D 334
July 15 Electoral Vote 219 D 319
August 15 Electoral Vote R 248 D 290
 
Good morning Perot - hope all is well,

The only race I'll quibble with you on is the Florida Senate race and only because I believe it depends on who the Republican Presidential nominee ends up being. If it's Jeb Bush, whom I believe it will be, I think the top of the ticket will draw more Republicans and independents, particularly Latino voters, and they will also support whomever the Republican Senate nominee is, both also being Latino.

Have fun and I look forward to following your blog posts throughout the process - John
 
Good morning, Pero! I guess talking to you only once a month beats not at all, but I really miss you! For one thing, nobody tells redneck jokes like you did, and we really need those laughs now! :kissy: What will it take to get you back with us full time on DP?

It sounds like you don't think Hillary's current problems will be a "deal breaker" for her, especially with BHO pushing Biden behind the scenes? Time will tell I guess, but most people will believe Petraeus will have been treated unfairly, for a lot less reason, if proper punishment is not meted out, since he served this country with honor his entire military career, and BTW Paula Broadwell has apparently found a married NC politician as her next target! *sluts make me gag, Pero!* Whatever....
 
CanadaJohn;bt3247 said:
Good morning Perot - hope all is well,

The only race I'll quibble with you on is the Florida Senate race and only because I believe it depends on who the Republican Presidential nominee ends up being. If it's Jeb Bush, whom I believe it will be, I think the top of the ticket will draw more Republicans and independents, particularly Latino voters, and they will also support whomever the Republican Senate nominee is, both also being Latino.

Have fun and I look forward to following your blog posts throughout the process - John

Yeah, all of these are still up in the air and nothing is written in stone. Who is the presidential and VP candidates on the GOP may make a huge difference in Florida and perhaps Wisconsin. A Kasich on the ticket would help Portman retain his senate seat in Ohio and could help Toomey in PA. But as of today the Democrats have the advantage in Florida when it comes to the senate. It is interesting to note that Trump has taken the lead in Florida against Clinton. Which adds to what you are saying.

Also one must remember Romney only lost Florida by 0.88%, less than 1 point. Florida is very much up for grabs and a Bush and/or Rubio on the presidential ticket would most assuredly help whom ever is the Republican nominee for the senate.
 
polgara;bt3248 said:
Good morning, Pero! I guess talking to you only once a month beats not at all, but I really miss you! For one thing, nobody tells redneck jokes like you did, and we really need those laughs now! :kissy: What will it take to get you back with us full time on DP?

It sounds like you don't think Hillary's current problems will be a "deal breaker" for her, especially with BHO pushing Biden behind the scenes? Time will tell I guess, but most people will believe Petraeus will have been treated unfairly, for a lot less reason, if proper punishment is not meted out, since he served this country with honor his entire military career, and BTW Paula Broadwell has apparently found a married NC politician as her next target! *sluts make me gag, Pero!* Whatever....


I covered this on the other two sites I now belong to. It is my opinion as of today that unless criminal charges are filed against Clinton neither Biden nor Sanders has the ability to dethrone her. In fact Hillary could lose both Iowa and New Hampshire and she would still be in great shape. Hillary has between 80-90% of the black Democratic Primary voters wrapped up. They make up roughly a third of the Democratic Primary voters. They do not give one iota of a care about servers, e-mails, Benghazi, the Clinton Foundation or anything else. They are loyal to Hillary.

When the primaries move south that is where blacks will make up half of the Democratic Primary vote. Hillary leads Sanders in South Carolina, number 3 on the list of primaries 78-8 with Biden at 6. In Alabama Hillary has a 81-10 lead over Sanders and so on. The mistake most people make is they look at only the national figures and not at state by state polls that is where the delegates are awarded.

I also think Biden who is currently somewhere between 10-15% nationally will jump 10 points in the polls when and if he announces. Remember he is not officially a candidate although all polls include him. He hasn’t campaigned yet. But I also think that 10 point jump will come at the expense of Sanders much more than Hillary. Biden may cut into the black vote for Hillary which Sanders only has around 5% of. Still if Joe gets as high as 15% and Sanders keeps his 5% that still leaves Hillary with 80% and regardless of what happens with this server problem, she isn’t going any lower than that with the black primary Democratic voters. Hispanics are also in Hillary’s corners, not Sanders and it is here that Joe may be able to make a dent. Sanders appeals to the white liberal crowd of the Democratic Party, not the colored folks.

Bottom line, all these scandals have hurt Clinton a bit with the white liberal voter, but not the minorities. Unless the sever and classified traffic turns criminal and she, herself takes her out of the race, the nomination is still hers. Remember she has already the endorsement of 95 Democratic House members, half. She has been endorsed by 27 Democratic senators, more than half and by 7 Democratic Governors and she has most of the big money Democratic donors committed to her. She is still in great shape for the nomination as of today anyway. But there is five months before the first votes are cast in Iowa and anything can and probably will happen. But if I had to wager today on whom would be the Democratic nominee, Hillary is the one.

As for DP, it was their prerogative to do what they did and it is my prerogative not to grace the site with my presents. I think we are both happy with that arrangement. If you hadn’t requested the senate updates on DP, I wouldn’t be doing even this.
 
Perotista;bt3250 said:
I covered this on the other two sites I now belong to. It is my opinion as of today that unless criminal charges are filed against Clinton neither Biden nor Sanders has the ability to dethrone her. In fact Hillary could lose both Iowa and New Hampshire and she would still be in great shape. Hillary has between 80-90% of the black Democratic Primary voters wrapped up. They make up roughly a third of the Democratic Primary voters. They do not give one iota of a care about servers, e-mails, Benghazi, the Clinton Foundation or anything else. They are loyal to Hillary.

When the primaries move south that is where blacks will make up half of the Democratic Primary vote. Hillary leads Sanders in South Carolina, number 3 on the list of primaries 78-8 with Biden at 6. In Alabama Hillary has a 81-10 lead over Sanders and so on. The mistake most people make is they look at only the national figures and not at state by state polls that is where the delegates are awarded.

I also think Biden who is currently somewhere between 10-15% nationally will jump 10 points in the polls when and if he announces. Remember he is not officially a candidate although all polls include him. He hasn’t campaigned yet. But I also think that 10 point jump will come at the expense of Sanders much more than Hillary. Biden may cut into the black vote for Hillary which Sanders only has around 5% of. Still if Joe gets as high as 15% and Sanders keeps his 5% that still leaves Hillary with 80% and regardless of what happens with this server problem, she isn’t going any lower than that with the black primary Democratic voters. Hispanics are also in Hillary’s corners, not Sanders and it is here that Joe may be able to make a dent. Sanders appeals to the white liberal crowd of the Democratic Party, not the colored folks.

Bottom line, all these scandals have hurt Clinton a bit with the white liberal voter, but not the minorities. Unless the sever and classified traffic turns criminal and she, herself takes her out of the race, the nomination is still hers. Remember she has already the endorsement of 95 Democratic House members, half. She has been endorsed by 27 Democratic senators, more than half and by 7 Democratic Governors and she has most of the big money Democratic donors committed to her. She is still in great shape for the nomination as of today anyway. But there is five months before the first votes are cast in Iowa and anything can and probably will happen. But if I had to wager today on whom would be the Democratic nominee, Hillary is the one.

As for DP, it was their prerogative to do what they did and it is my prerogative not to grace the site with my presents. I think we are both happy with that arrangement. If you hadn’t requested the senate updates on DP, I wouldn’t be doing even this.

Good morning Perot,

I'll echo Lady P's comments about missing having your comments here on the site but I understand your perspective.

As for Clinton - I agree with you - she will win the Democrat nomination unless Biden and Warren unit on a ticket and announce that ticket before the primaries start.

Take care and have fun - John
 
CanadaJohn;bt3252 said:
Good morning Perot,

I'll echo Lady P's comments about missing having your comments here on the site but I understand your perspective.

As for Clinton - I agree with you - she will win the Democrat nomination unless Biden and Warren unit on a ticket and announce that ticket before the primaries start.

Take care and have fun - John

CJ – looking at the Democratic Primary schedule and the percentage of the black vote in them, it is quite interesting considering Hillary will probably be getting 90% of it if it is just her vs. Sanders. Even if Biden enters and he get 20% of the black vote, that still means 75% of it will go to Clinton.

In Iowa and New Hampshire, you’re talking only around 5% of the Democratic vote is black. South Carolina on 27 Feb followed by Alabama, Georgia and Texas on March 1st, black will make up approximately 55-60% of the total Democratic primary vote in those states. Also on March 1st is Virginia, North Carolina and Tennessee which blacks make up around 40% of the total Democratic Primary vote. On that same day is Arkansas and Colorado, 20% black vote. Hillary will win all of these beginning with South Carolina mainly because the black vote makes up such a high percentage of the Democratic Primary vote. All Hillary has to do is not peeve blacks off.
 
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