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'Peak Youth': Mind-blowing Demographic Shift Unprecedented in Human History

mbig

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This has profound implications for Govts, economies, and political systems.
Western economies and Social systems have always been based on a Growing population/with a large young worker pyramid base, not heavy top.
Keynesian economics probably doesn't work in shrinking scenarios either.

This already in progress in many places in the First World. One reason for slow growth and lower labor participation rates.

"We're about to see a Mind-blowing Demographic Shift Unprecedented in Human History"
Demographic shift more older adults than children - Business Insider
Elena Holodny - May 16, 2016
(Charts within)


The world is about to see a mind-blowing demographic situation that will be a first in human history: There are about to be more elderly people than young children. For some time now, demographers and economists have observed that the proportion of elderly adults around the world is rising, while the proportion of younger children is falling.

But within a few years, just before 2020, adults aged 65 and over will begin to outnumber children under the age of 5 among the global population, according to a chart shared by a Bank of America Merrill Lynch team led by Beijia Ma, citing an earlier report from the US Census Bureau. And these two age groups will continue to grow in opposite directions: The proportion of the global population aged 65 and up will continue to increase, while the proportion of the population aged 5 and under will continue decreasing.

In fact, according to the Census Bureau, by 2050 those ages 65 and up will make up an estimated 15.6% of the global population — more than double that of children ages 5 and under, who will make up an estimated 7.2%.

As the BAML team explained in greater detail:

"...and life expectancy increasing by 1Y every 5Y. We are arriving at 'peak youth' for the first time in human history with the number of persons aged 65+ expected to outnumber children under-5 by the end of this decade. Aging has also become a universal phenomenon, and by 2050E, 80% of older people will live in EMs. Life expectancies of 300-400Y or even an infinite extension of life expectancy may be within reach in our lifetimes."​

"This unique demographic phenomenon of the 'crossing' is unprecedented," the Census Bureau's authors noted earlier.
[......]
 
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Paleocon

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This has profound implications for Govts, economies, and political systems.
Western economies and Social systems have always been based on a Growing population/with a large young worker pyramid base, not heavy top.
Keynesian economics probably doesn't work in shrinking scenarios either.

This has already happened in many places in the First World. One reason for slow growth and lower labor participation rates.

"We're about to see a Mind-blowing Demographic Shift Unprecedented in Human History"
Demographic shift more older adults than children - Business Insider
Elena Holodny - May 16, 2016
(Charts within)

This is the fruit of contraception and abortion.
 

Kurmugeon

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This is the fruit of contraception and abortion.

It was inevitable even without contraception and abortion, because of finite terrestrial space and resources.

The only possible what this demographic shift could have been avoided in the long term is coming up with a fiscally and energy cheap way to get human mass out of the earth's gravity well.

Even then, in the 1000+ year time frame, you run into the same limits, unless you can cross trans-stellar distances.

If humans don't voluntarily limit their population growth, reality will limit it for them.

-
 
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Paleocon

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It was inevitable even without contraception and abortion, because of finite terrestrial space and resources.

The only possible what this demographic shift could have been avoided in the long term is coming up with a fiscally and energy cheap way to get human mass out of the earth's gravity well.

Even then, in the 1000+ year time frame, you run into the same limits, unless you can cross trans-stellar distances.

If humans don't voluntarily limit their population growth, reality will limit it for them.

-

We are no where near that point.
 

Paleocon

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Kurmugeon

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That's not my concern. I'm speaking of Anerica and the west.

And Obama and Crew will simply import the people and population problems of the worst Nations/Societies and Cults in the world and make them your problem.

He has already done so.

Now, since Obama has imported near 3 Million of the worst people on earth, sooner or later, you will need to fight them, or die at their hands.

And every year, the Obama Imports have allot more babies than your people do, so the longer you wait, the more likely you are to be simply exterminated.

Don't take my word for it.

THEY, the Obama Imports, openly boast that they plan to out-breed and eventually exterminate your people. Take their word for it.

-
 

calamity

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This has profound implications for Govts, economies, and political systems.
Western economies and Social systems have always been based on a Growing population/with a large young worker pyramid base, not heavy top.
Keynesian economics probably doesn't work in shrinking scenarios either.

This already in progress in many places in the First World. One reason for slow growth and lower labor participation rates.

"We're about to see a Mind-blowing Demographic Shift Unprecedented in Human History"
Demographic shift more older adults than children - Business Insider
Elena Holodny - May 16, 2016
(Charts within)

just in time for the robots to take over. funny how things work themselves out.
 

Paleocon

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And Obama and Crew will simply import the people and population problems of the worst Nations/Societies and Cults in the world and make them your problem.

He has already done so.

Now, since Obama has imported near 3 Million of the worst people on earth, sooner or later, you will need to fight them, or die at their hands.

And every year, the Obama Imports have allot more babies than your people do, so the longer you wait, the more likely you are to be simply exterminated.

Don't take my word for it.

THEY, the Obama Imports, openly boast that they plan to out-breed and eventually exterminate your people. Take their word for it.

-

Which does not in any way contradict my original point.
 

Kurmugeon

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That's not my concern. I'm speaking of Anerica and the west.

BTW, in their home countries, the Obama Imports managed to have 10X the population growth rate, of your people, even though they were living in a backward society with primitive medicine and common starvation.

Now that they're in America, they have YOU, and your people, to pay taxes, which will be used to provide them with much better medicine, and all of the food their babies can eat!

So, here, In the American Welfare State, their population growth rates will be MUCH, MUCH Higher!

If we're fools enough to pay taxes for the invasion and seizure of our own Nation, why shouldn't the ignorant and ruthless Obama-Imports use the option?

Their Lives will certainly get allot better...

For a while...

Until all your people are dead...

And they've over-populated this country to extreme levels, just like back home in Ethiopia.

-
 

Kurmugeon

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Which does not in any way contradict my original point.

You can die from the over-population of your own people, if you do not self-limit.

But if you do self-limit, and you don't control your borders, you will die at the hands of Other populations.

Like it or not, Open Borders, and uncontrolled population growth, anywhere, eventually means who breeds the fastest, and is the most culturally unified and brutal, wins.

Obama and his allies in the Muslim Brotherhood are counting on it!

-
 

mbig

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And Obama and Crew will simply import the people and population problems of the worst Nations/Societies and Cults in the world and make them your problem.

He has already done so.

Now, since Obama has imported near 3 Million of the worst people on earth, sooner or later, you will need to fight them, or die at their hands.

And every year, the Obama Imports have allot more babies than your people do, so the longer you wait, the more likely you are to be simply exterminated.

Don't take my word for it.

THEY, the Obama Imports, openly boast that they plan to out-breed and eventually exterminate your people. Take their word for it.

-
This was the problem BEFORE Obama as well, and an even worse problem in Europe where the 'native' Birth rate is much lower than ours. In Japan, they're not importing anyone, just shrinking up their own derrieres.

The First World and the people who made it are dying, and [not] really being replaced.
Thus those no-growth economies and Negative interest rates.
 

Visbek

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This is the fruit of contraception and abortion.
And better nutrition, better medical care (including vaccines and antibiotics), less violence, safer societies, safer workplaces, and affluence.

Oh, and this is not necessarily a bad thing.
 

Henrin

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Just think what will happen to the birth rates when a male birth control pill comes around. I'm thinking something like 0.7 or so will be the birth rate.
 

Henrin

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And better nutrition, better medical care (including vaccines and antibiotics), less violence, safer societies, safer workplaces, and affluence.

Oh, and this is not necessarily a bad thing.

Populations failing to replace themselves is a great way to die out as a species. That won't happen to the human race, but it's going to be fun economically speaking.
 

Kurmugeon

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This was the problem BEFORE Obama as well, and an even worse problem in Europe where the 'native' Birth rate is much lower than ours. In Jpoan, there not importing anyone, just shrinking up their own derrieres.

The First World and the people who made it are dying, and [not] really being replaced.
Thus the world economies and Negative interest ratesin those countries.

But putting 1st world countries populations in a slightly negative population growth rate is a wise policy, as our current population, without millions of Obama Imported Muslims and Mexicans, is a bit too large for America's long term sustainment.

America Limiting its 1st world, native born population, and then investing in making the most of ALL people of that population, whether they are born of the Upper Class, or born in poverty, regardless of "RACE", is just common sense.

But this strategy only works if you control your borders!

If you chose to NOT control your borders, then the only way to survive, is to have more babies than the other cultures/cults who are currently promising to exterminate you!

So, Which is it going to be:

Modest Population Shrinkage, combined with border control and a society that doesn't grant education/jobs based on skin color, but on merit...

or

Open borders, every Tribe Breed as fast as possible, and when resources collapse, we'll have a nice like war...

or

Just surrendering without a whimper, continuing to not have kids, enforce the borders, and in fact, spend 100s of Billions of Dollars Importing those who openly state they plan to kill U.S.?



The path Obama and crew have had U.S. on for the last eight years is basically suicide.

(Well, Suicide on our part, for letting him continue. On the part of Obama, it is Treason, Sabotage, and eventually Murder)

-
 
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Henrin

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But putting 1st world countries populations in a slightly negative population growth rate is a wise policy, as our current population, without millions of Obama Imported Muslims and Mexicans, is a bit too large for America's long term sustainment.

America Limiting its 1st world, native born population, and then investing in making the most of ALL people of that population, whether they are born of the Upper Class, or born in poverty, regardless of "RACE", is just common sense.

But this strategy only works if you control your borders!

If you chose to NOT control your borders, then the only way to survive, is to have more babies than the other cultures/cults who are currently promising to exterminate you!

So, Which is it going to be:

Modest Population Shrinkage, combined with border control and a society that doesn't grant education/jobs based on skin color, but on merit...

or

Open borders, every Tribe Breed as fast as possible, and when resources collapse, we'll have a nice like war...

or

Just surrendering without a whimper, continuing to not have kids, enforce the borders, and in fact, spend 100s of Billions of Dollars Importing those who openly state they plan to kill U.S.?

-

The only way an economy with low birth rates can stay even close to strong and growing is if they allow people in their country in large numbers. Otherwise, the population will grow old, the economy will shrink, and advancement of society will slow to a crawl.
 

Visbek

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Western economies and Social systems have always been based on a Growing population/with a large young worker pyramid base, not heavy top.
Sort of.

AFAIK, most European nations pay pensions and safety nets out of their general tax revenues. The US has an unusual system where it dedicates payroll taxes to its safety net for seniors, basically to fool the public into thinking of SS like it's a giant IRA. It would be far more honest, and end the absurd talk of Social Security "going broke," if the US paid SS out of the general fund.

That said, it's not necessarily the case that an older society means a radically shrinking tax base. Many older people are continuing to work, and a fair amount of the drop in LFPR is due to people getting an education rather than working.

Another interesting concept is that it may be possible for our society to provide for everyone, to an extent, without everyone working. It'd require a radical reimagining of how our consumer society functions and its goals, so I'm not too optimistic about it. However, we are increasingly becoming a society where we need fewer and fewer people in order to provide more goods and services. So, we're in for a big change, and a big part of that will be that not everyone who wants to work will be able to find work, because their labor simply isn't needed.


Keynesian economics probably doesn't work in shrinking scenarios either.
Keynes wasn't dealing with a society with a shrinking tax base. However, its basic principles don't change much as a result of that factor. E.g. if there is a sharp economic downturn, you will still want to set up a stimulus program to put people to work, in order to keep money circulating throughout the economy.


This already in progress in many places in the First World. One reason for slow growth and lower labor participation rates.
Sure, but that's not necessarily a bad thing. In particular, if the society isn't growing as fast as in the past, you don't actually need high growth rates.
 

Kurmugeon

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The only way an economy with low birth rates can stay even close to strong and growing is if they allow people in their country in large numbers. Otherwise, the population will grow old, the economy will shrink, and advancement of society will slow to a crawl.

Not at all!

A stable population, or even one in slight decline, can increase its economy by innovation, increases in productivity through automation, made possible by raising the levels of common people technical, math and science education, and increasing the life-span by better medicine and nutrition.

It is a complete fallacy to say that "Population Growth = Economic Growth"

When it is completely possible for:

"Increased Productivity = Economic Growth"

"Increased Education and Technology = Economic Growth"

"Increased Lifespan (return on childhood/education expenses) = Economic Growth"

"Increased Efficiency = Economic Growth"

"Increased Conservation and Recycling = Economic Growth"




Get Real! Population Growth does NOT equal Economic Growth!

In fact, when done WRONG, such as Importing Millions of Skill-less, Ignorant, Intolerant, Violent, fast-breeding, dependents, such as the Obama-Mexicans and Muslims...

Under those conditions, Population Growth = Economic Collapse!

-
 

mbig

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But putting 1st world countries populations in a slightly negative population growth rate is a wise policy, as our current population, without millions of Obama Imported Muslims and Mexicans, is a bit too large for America's long term sustainment.
I'm for an immigration shut down, UNLESS we use it like the draft, for people who are going to pay our Social costs, not drain them

We should NOT be the Nursery Annex for Mexico, Haiti, Pakistan, etc. whose main export is people.
This is a Disaster already happening, and again, happening before Obama.

kurmugeon said:
America Limiting its 1st world, native born population, and then investing in making the most of ALL people of that population, whether they are born of the Upper Class, or born in poverty, regardless of "RACE", is just common sense.
But this strategy only works if you control your borders!If you chose to NOT control your borders, then the only way to survive, is to have more babies than the other cultures/cults who are currently promising to exterminate you!
Yes.

kurmugeon said:
So, Which is it going to be:
Modest Population Shrinkage, combined with border control and a society that doesn't grant education/jobs based on skin color, but on merit...
or
Open borders, every Tribe Breed as fast as possible, and when resources collapse, we'll have a nice like war...
or
Just surrendering without a whimper, continuing to not have kids, enforce the borders, and in fact, spend 100s of Billions of Dollars Importing those who openly state they plan to kill U.S.?
The path Obama and crew have had U.S. on for the last eight years is basically suicide.
(Well, Suicide on our part, for letting him continue. On the part of Obama, it is Treason, Sabotage, and eventually Murder)
Actually, it started with the 1965 immigration Act, and continued though Reagan's Amnesty, and Both Bush Presidents.
Stop blaming this just on Obama, it's OCD partisan.

Alas, because Of these previous President's acts, there are now so many Amnestied Illegals, they are the Swing Vote on New illegals, and it's probably No Candidate can get elected who isn't pro-Illegal Amnesty (aka 'Path to Citizenship'). Thus, even Obama's election.
The Goose has been cooked by Both parties.
 
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BitterPill

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THEY, the Obama Imports, openly boast that they plan to out-breed and eventually exterminate your people. Take their word for it.

-

Sadly, I only hear you saying that.
 

soot

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No ,immigrants!

Mehhh...

Immigrants can be deported or just eradicated, and sooner or later, if history is any indication, we'll get to that point in the West.

But robots?

Go watch the Terminator movies.

Robots are really bad news.
 

Paleocon

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And better nutrition, better medical care (including vaccines and antibiotics), less violence, safer societies, safer workplaces, and affluence.

Oh, and this is not necessarily a bad thing.

Abortion is a supremely violent act.

I'd reckon that if you don't arbitrarily exclude abortion from your count, we're a far more violent society than most of the third world even.
 

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...

Actually It started with the 1965 immigration Act, and continued though Reagan's Amnesty, and Both Bush Presidents.
Stop blaming this just on Obama, it's OCD partisan.

Alas, because Of these previous President's acts, there are now so many Amnestied Illegals they are now the Swing Vote on New illegals, and it's probably No Candidate can get elected who isn't pro-Illegal Amnesty (aka 'Path to Citizenship'). Thus, even Obama's election.
The Goose has been cooked by Both parties.

We do NOT have two separate opposing political parties, and have not had so for over forty years!

We have an Establishment Duopoly which serves itself, and not the American People.

And we have a few brave and dedicated rebels and independents, who have stood out against the status quo and the Establishment, and they always get destroyed, because We, the common American people, are too foolish to get behind those who oppose the Establishment, to overturn their Identity Politics peddling cart!

I blame the Left, because the LEFTIES are Driving that cart!

The RINOs, the shill placeholders who are claiming to be the "Opposition" but in reality just maintain the status quo, by rubber stamping the Leftie agenda, are FOLLOWING the orders of the Lefties!

Make no mistake, what we have in the Duopoly is Saul Alinsky Politics refined to an ARTFORM with the Lefties in Control!

The vast bulk of the Republican Party are just Shill RINO extensions of the Democratic Party!

We do NOT have two parties, we have ONE party, with a fake Opposition Party!

And a few Political Mavericks!

-
 
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