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We can discuss the peace talks scheduled to begin in a few hours.
So far, Russia's approach to talks has been nothing but to lie, and to make extreme demands - i.e., de-militarize, commit to never join NATO, etc. No concessions or practical discussion of ending their war.
Zelensky has indicated his willingness to give a big concession: to agree Ukraine will not join NATO, something Putin has demanded.
So, what is likely from these talks?
It seems to me:
- One option is that Russia simply doing more of the same. If it helps them a little politically to look like they're willing to talk, fine. If Ukraine will surrender and save them the trouble of war, fine. In other words, a waste of time.
- The main alternative to that I see, is if Putin privately has decided this is going badly enough that he wants to end it - in which case the talks would be about giving him whatever bits are needed for him to feel he can declare victory. Is the no-NATO agreement enough? No one knows.
We'll have to see what comes from the talks - Russian obstinance and proclaiming their propaganda, compromises leading to possible peace, or what.
So far, Russia's approach to talks has been nothing but to lie, and to make extreme demands - i.e., de-militarize, commit to never join NATO, etc. No concessions or practical discussion of ending their war.
Zelensky has indicated his willingness to give a big concession: to agree Ukraine will not join NATO, something Putin has demanded.
So, what is likely from these talks?
It seems to me:
- One option is that Russia simply doing more of the same. If it helps them a little politically to look like they're willing to talk, fine. If Ukraine will surrender and save them the trouble of war, fine. In other words, a waste of time.
- The main alternative to that I see, is if Putin privately has decided this is going badly enough that he wants to end it - in which case the talks would be about giving him whatever bits are needed for him to feel he can declare victory. Is the no-NATO agreement enough? No one knows.
We'll have to see what comes from the talks - Russian obstinance and proclaiming their propaganda, compromises leading to possible peace, or what.