Peace Talks in Yemen Unlikely To Produce Solution As War Drags On

[Tigerace117]

“ According to Dahfash, by August 2018, the fighting had led to the deaths of 33 members of his family, mostly women and children, forcing the rest to flee.

“More than three years into our displacement and we are unable to return to our homes,” Dahfash told Al Jazeera from his new home in the capital, Sanaa. “We are unable to see or get together with our family members, who are all displaced in different areas.”

Dahfash left al-Ko’ea a few months before the Stockholm Agreement was signed by Yemen’s warring parties in December 2018.

The deal stopped an offensive by the Joint Forces, a Saudi-led coalition backed group, to take Houthi-held Hodeidah city, which is a major port of entry for food, goods and oil.

Yet, despite the Stockholm Agreement, fighting continued in Hodeidah, meaning that a return to al-Ko’ea was not safe for Dahfash or his family.

Fighters from both sides were never redeployed as agreed, and hostilities never actually ceased, particularly in the southern districts of Hodeidah governorate.

The fight for Hodeidah has left hundreds of people dead and injured, and drove thousands of families from their homes. Even though coalition-backed forces have now withdrawn from Hodeidah city and its environs, the city’s eastern and southern outskirts are still infested with landmines.

A weeklong round of consultations kicked off in Saudi Arabia’s capital, Riyadh, on Tuesday, with that goal in mind. But it had one major problem – the absence of the Houthis, who control the majority of Yemen’s major population centres.

The Houthis were invited, but rejected the invitation from the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), and said they would instead welcome talks with the Saudi-led coalition at a neutral venue, including in other Gulf states.

“It is neither logical, nor fair that the host of the talks is also the sponsor of war and blockade,” the Houthi movement said in a statement published on their official news agency.

With unilateral ceasefires declared by both Saudi Arabia and the Houthis, and with no positive response from each side, peace for Yemenis appears to be hanging by a thread.

“The Riyadh talks are an attempt by the Saudi government to achieve its own objectives, rather than the objective of peace for Yemenis,” Abdulghani al-Iryani, a senior researcher at the Sanaa Center for Strategic Studies, told Al Jazeera.

“It may result in some kind of consensus among anti-Houthi forces, which would probably reduce the superiority of the Houthis on the battlefront, and, therefore, create the necessary balance that would make a cessation of hostilities possible,” he added.

However, in al-Iryani’s opinion, that was the most that could be hoped for out of the Riyadh talks.

For Dahfash and his family, that may mean a prolonged stay away from their homes in al-Ko’ea.

“It has been eight years of war now; my family members are still scattered in different places,” Dahfash said. “We are so exhausted, and just hope that the war will end some day, and we can return safe to our hometown.”

Yemen peace talks give little hope for displaced civilians

Riyadh consultations hosted by Saudi Arabia have been boycotted by the Houthis, leaving little chance of success.

www.aljazeera.com

Meanwhile, the war drags on in Yemen with no end in sight. The US continues to actively support Saudi Arabia’s war effort and blockade while the deaths just keep on piling up. Thousands upon thousands of civilians have already died, many due to Saudi Arabia’s coalition and its campaign of indiscriminate air strikes, while the US provides all the weaponry and intelligence support Riyadh could ever need while fearmongering endlessly about Iran. That’s not even getting into the effects of the blockade on Yemen. People are starving— estimates from 2018 are that over eighty THOUSAND children died from starvation between 2015 and 2018– and numerous deaths from cholera and even the flu are reported routinely as well.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Famine_in_Yemen_(2016–present)

The whole thing is quite depressing, made more so by the fact that recent fundraising efforts failed to meet their goals.

Yemen donor summit falls short of $2.4bn target

Videoconference organised by the UN and war actor Saudi Arabia fails to achieve $2.41bn fundraising target.

www.aljazeera.com

But I forgot.....the Yemenis aren’t European, and they aren’t Christian......so people feel fine with turning a blind eye.

 

[Juks]

It is a very complicated conflict. In some ways it looks like the conflict in the Ukraine, with targeting hospitals, schools and constant war crimes committed by both sides, but it has it's start in a religious divided population, poverty and lack of democracy prior to the war. Since the Arab Spring in 2011, the UN has tried to mediate in the conflict, but without success. As long as the government and the coalition are supported by the United States, Britain and France, all of which have a veto vote in the UN Security Council, it is unlikely that the Security Council will play a decisive role in the conflict. But the UN is not completely handcuffed. The UN has made a peace plan which they are now trying to get the parties on, but so far it has been impossible to get the parties to accept all the points in the proposal. A ceasefire, urban demilitarization and a joint coalition government are the most important points in the UN's draft peace agreement.

 

[Juks]

But there is a glimpse of hope even if it goes slow and every day means more deaths and more suffering

That Joe Biden, has at least officially withdrawn its support for the war and partially halted arms exports to Saudi Arabia, although it should not be considered as big a switch in changed policy, still it opens up the possibility for support the UN peace plan in the Security Council and a pressure on Saudi Arabia.

Also the war in the Ukraine and the position that the west has taken in that war makes it if not impossible so at least embarrassing for the US, Britain and France to continue their support for Saudi Arabia in the war in Yemen. Also, Russia are stretching itself in the Ukraine and will soon not be able to support Iran in it's war in Yemen.

 

[Juks]

On the other hand the problems will not go away until the Shia and Sunni Muslims of Yemen can find a common ground and a mutual agreement of protection for each others rights and cut their ties to Saudi Arabia and Iran. They need to make a clear statement that the problem and rivalry of Saudi and Iran are their problem and not the problem of Yemen. It may sound fruitless but in fact, not only Sunni and Shia Muslims, but also Christians, Jews and other religious groups, lived side by side for centuries before the modern Middle East was created in the 20th century. The conflicts in the Middle East bridge religious lines. What really drives today's contradictions is the power struggle of regional actors and the rivalry between countries like Iran and SA.

 

[Tigerace117]

On the other hand the problems will not go away until the Shia and Sunni Muslims of Yemen can find a common ground and a mutual agreement of protection for each others rights and cut their ties to Saudi Arabia and Iran. They need to make a clear statement that the problem and rivalry of Saudi and Iran are their problem and not the problem of Yemen. It may sound fruitless but in fact, not only Sunni and Shia Muslims, but also Christians, Jews and other religious groups, lived side by side for centuries before the modern Middle East was created in the 20th century. The conflicts in the Middle East bridge religious lines. What really drives today's contradictions is the power struggle of regional actors and the rivalry between countries like Iran and SA.

The interesting thing about the Houthis is that they’ve allied with some Sunnis, and they definitely aren’t an Iranian puppet outright— they do get some support from Iran, but they do their own thing basically whenever they feel like it. It’s a very decentralized group and treatment of civilians can vary wildly from place to place.

 

[Juks]

The interesting thing about the Houthis is that they’ve allied with some Sunnis, and they definitely aren’t an Iranian puppet outright— they do get some support from Iran, but they do their own thing basically whenever they feel like it. It’s a very decentralized group and treatment of civilians can vary wildly from place to place.

Well, in my eyes the Houthis are al about personal power and not a good solution for Yemen if they were to receive power. It would turn to yet another violent corrupt dictatorship on the Arabian Peninsula (and yes I include SA in that statement) with massive oppression of their own population as a result.

Before any solution can come, both SA and Iran needs to stop their interference. For the people of Yemen to have any say in the matter the weapons deliveries needs to dry out. As it is , they don't have a chance to say anything about their country's development and rule, stareing down a barrel in any direction they look.

It might be that the war in the Ukraine is the "God sent" solution in the long term. The countries in Europe equipping their military will give the European and American weapon industry a boost that might also entail less export to countries like SA. Russia , being under sanctions might also turn into internal needs instead of upholding export to countries like Iran. The war makes both US, Europe and Russia poorer and prioritizations will need to be made.

France, the UK and the US will also no longer be able to sell weapons just on their own opinions but will have to choose which country they want to sell to when countries like for example Germany, Finland and Sweden starts to upgrade their military. It is very likely that ethnic demands will be made on suppliers. Choosing SA over for example Germany will also make a statement to the American population on US governments policies and beliefs that will not be in favor for them in public opinions.

The only thing I can see that thwart the above scenario, is SA oil to replace the oil from Russia, but so far it doesn't look that way. The US is turning towards Venezuela and Europe seem determent to replace the oil dependency with electricity.