Pause in Global Warming tied to Pacific Ocean flux

[jmotivator]

A new paper has posited that the Pacific oscillation is responsible the current cessation of global warming. (and now a second)

This finding is interesting to me for a few reasons:

1) From this paper we can extrapolate that nearly half of the warming of the last 60 years at least is tied to natural variability in the Pacific Ocean.

2) If all the rest of the warming was anthropogenic in nature is would equate to about half of the projected 3.0C per C02 doubling sold by the IPCC and alarmists.

3) 1.5C per CO2 doubling is what the luke warmers like Lord Monkton have been arguing all along.


I wonder how many Alarmists will accept this paper as their out? They can still argue a statistically significant warming signal from anthropogenic sources, but would have to severely tone down their doom and gloom.

 

[bubbabgone]

Kinda humbling, ain't it.
But no ... GW is only the vehicle and it runs on BS.
That won't change.

 

[VanceMack]

You cant lobby for increased monies to research teams based on this kind of evidence. You have to have a looming pending catastrophe to frighten people with, make up false predictions about walls of water, post deceptive pictures of cute polar bears clinging to their last block of ice, etc.

 

[calamity]

A new paper has posited that the Pacific oscillation is responsible the current cessation of global warming. (and now a second)

This finding is interesting to me for a few reasons:

1) From this paper we can extrapolate that nearly half of the warming of the last 60 years at least is tied to natural variability in the Pacific Ocean.

2) If all the rest of the warming was anthropogenic in nature is would equate to about half of the projected 3.0C per C02 doubling sold by the IPCC and alarmists.

3) 1.5C per CO2 doubling is what the luke warmers like Lord Monkton have been arguing all along.


I wonder how many Alarmists will accept this paper as their out? They can still argue a statistically significant warming signal from anthropogenic sources, but would have to severely tone down their doom and gloom.

The earth is warming. This is quite evident if one looks at the planet's ice cover. Everywhere, the ice is getting thinner or receding. However, no one knows why.

 

[Guy Incognito]

There was never an alarmist consensus, and it appears that there is a rapidly developing consensus that the alarmists are entirely wrong.

Time to devote our resources to tackling serious issues, developing improved GMO crops.

 

[jmotivator]

The earth is warming. This is quite evident if one looks at the planet's ice cover. Everywhere, the ice is getting thinner or receding. However, no one knows why.

No, everyone knows the planet has warmed since the little ice age. Why it has warmed is what is in question.

 

[sawyerloggingon]

The earth is warming. This is quite evident if one looks at the planet's ice cover. Everywhere, the ice is getting thinner or receding. However, no one knows why.

The earth has been in a warming trend since the last ice age ended. We have been steadily losing ice for 1000's of years.

 

[VanceMack]

The earth is warming. This is quite evident if one looks at the planet's ice cover. Everywhere, the ice is getting thinner or receding. However, no one knows why.

The climate has changed ever since there has been a climate. Georgia is experiencing record rainfall...but they have also had in the recent past historical droughts and high temperatures. Its comes...it goes...always has...always will. Anyone pinning their "consensus" on climate change is pretty safe. Thats probably why they dropped the "global warming" rhetoric.

 

[VanceMack]

The earth has been in a warming trend since the last ice age ended. We have been steadily losing ice for 1000's of years.

Wait...there was an ice age? Which evil corporation caused that?

 

[trfjr]

there has been a natural oscillation of climate temperature since day 1. We had a few crack pot scientist about 50 years ago come up with this man made climate change hypothesis with out referring to earth climate history. the Democrats latched hold of it as another wedge issue between them and republicans. Now that they and many industries that contribute to democrats and scientist that get research money from government are so fully invested in the fail theory it is no turning back for them

 

[joG]

A new paper has posited that the Pacific oscillation is responsible the current cessation of global warming. (and now a second)
This finding is interesting to me for a few reasons:
1) From this paper we can extrapolate that nearly half of the warming of the last 60 years at least is tied to natural variability in the Pacific Ocean.
2) If all the rest of the warming was anthropogenic in nature is would equate to about half of the projected 3.0C per C02 doubling sold by the IPCC and alarmists.
3) 1.5C per CO2 doubling is what the luke warmers like Lord Monkton have been arguing all along
I wonder how many Alarmists will accept this paper as their out? They can still argue a statistically significant warming signal from anthropogenic sources, but would have to severely tone down their doom and gloom.

All of the newer research points to less ominous or at least slower warming. There seems no doubt about it. It only goes to show that we did not know enough for robust predictions. We have made some progress. But I really do not think we are fit to say the alert is off.

We just do not have to invest as much in alternative energy plant. We should, however, invest heavily in energy research.

 

[jmotivator]

All of the newer research points to less ominous or at least slower warming. There seems no doubt about it. It only goes to show that we did not know enough for robust predictions. We have made some progress. But I really do not think we are fit to say the alert is off.

We just do not have to invest as much in alternative energy plant. We should, however, invest heavily in energy research.

Of course we can say the alert is off. If we don't know enough to predict future climate then the alert is utterly baseless.

 

[ocean515]

The earth is warming. This is quite evident if one looks at the planet's ice cover. Everywhere, the ice is getting thinner or receding. However, no one knows why.

Well, I think you may be off a little bit on the "no one know's why".

Apparently it's warming because the United States has not sent enough of it's wealth to other countries. Based on the plans that have been promoted, it would seem that only when the West engages in the largest transfer of wealth in the history of man that Global Warming can be addressed.

 

[LowDown]

The earth is warming. This is quite evident if one looks at the planet's ice cover. Everywhere, the ice is getting thinner or receding. However, no one knows why.

Yes, the earth is warming gradually, probably because it just came out of a cold period. The question is what is causing it, and this paper indicates that most of it is due to natural variation. If, as indicated above, the most we'll get out of AGW is 1.5 degrees (and probably less), then it is definitely not worth it to cripple our economies and lower our standard of living to prevent that.

 

[calamity]

Yes, the earth is warming gradually, probably because it just came out of a cold period. The question is what is causing it, and this paper indicates that most of it is due to natural variation. If, as indicated above, the most we'll get out of AGW is 1.5 degrees (and probably less), then it is definitely not worth it to cripple our economies and lower our standard of living to prevent that.

We couldn't prevent it even if it was AGW and even if we tried. Short of reducing the population on earth to a small fraction of it's current size, there isn't a damned thing we can do.

 

[longview]

Short of reducing the population on earth to a small fraction of it's current size,

I am not sure you should encourage the enviro nuts in a direction they were secretly hoping for!:mrgreen:

 

[Deuce]

Oh look, another paper has been misinterpreted for you,and you just accepted it. You're on a roll, jmotivator.

 

[LowDown]

Oh look, another paper has been misinterpreted for you,and you just accepted it. You're on a roll, jmotivator.

Misinterpreted how? Curry is a bonafide climate scientist, so by your own standards her interpretation is authoritative. And it makes sense -- if ENSO is reponsible for suppression of global temperatures then it must also be responsible for part of the warming, more than half of it, in fact, when ENSO swings the other way. The authors of the paper show it without commenting on it. When they remove the effects of increased CO2 in their model there's little change because they have to invest so much leverage in the ENSO.

 

[Deuce]

Misinterpreted how? Curry is a bonafide climate scientist, so by your own standards her interpretation is authoritative. And it makes sense -- if ENSO is reponsible for suppression of global temperatures then it must also be responsible for part of the warming, more than half of it, in fact, when ENSO swings the other way. The authors of the paper show it without commenting on it. When they remove the effects of increased CO2 in their model there's little change because they have to invest so much leverage in the ENSO.

The author of the paper disagrees with Curry.

 

[LowDown]

The author of the paper disagrees with Curry.

Too bad. I'm sure they are very embarrassed. They gave a lot of ammunition to those who think climate change is mostly natural, apparently without realizing it. They can't have it one way and not the other. Laws of thermodynamics and all that.

I'd be interested in a link to their remarks, though.

 

[Deuce]

Too bad. I'm sure they are very embarrassed. They gave a lot of ammunition to those who think climate change is mostly natural, apparently without realizing it. They can't have it one way and not the other. Laws of thermodynamics and all that.

I'd be interested in a link to their remarks, though.

So you dismissed what they said without reading their remarks. :lamo

And also proven that you haven't read the links in this thread. :lamo

 

[Jack Hays]

So you dismissed what they said without reading their remarks. :lamo

And also proven that you haven't read the links in this thread. :lamo

Orthodox warmists apparently would rather repress than debate.

[h=2]Syun Akasofu’s work provokes journal resignation[/h] Posted on September 9, 2013 by Anthony Watts
Editorial board member pissed off over a paper on “the pause”
Story submitted by WUWT reader Duane Oldsen
WUWT readers may remember Dr. Syun Akasofu as the source of a graph tracking the Pacific Multidecadal Oscillation with sine wave shifts in global temperature up and down. Dr. Akasofu’s recent submission to the first issue of the new journal “Climate,” a submission in this same vein of analysis, provoked one of the journal’s editorial board to resign in protest.
Continue reading →