Paper Suggests No Global Temperature Change for 100 Years

[Jack Hays]

This is obviously an outlier. Fascinating though.

[h=2]Extensively-Referenced Study Of Past Scientists’ Global Temperature Estimates Suggests ‘No Change’ In 100 Years[/h]By Kenneth Richard on 13. August 2020
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[h=4]In the early 1900s, the globally-averaged distribution of calculated surface temperature estimates ranged between 14 and 15°C. For 1991-2018, HadCRUT, Berkley, and NASA GISS also estimate today’s global temperature is about 14.5°C.[/h]Scientists estimating Earth’s surface temperature has been an ongoing pursuit since the early 19th century.
A new study (Kramm et al., 2020) suggests the generally agreed-upon global temperature from 1877 to 1913 from dozens of calculated results was about 14.4°C.
Problematically, HadCRUT, Berkley, and NASA GISS also indicate the 1991-2018 had a global surface temperature of about 14.5°C.
This would suggest there has been “no change in the globally averaged near-surface temperature over the past 100 years”.

[h=6]Image Source: Kramm et al., 2020[/h]

 

[Rexedgar]

You must live in a cocoon...........a climate controlled cocoon.

 

[Jack Hays]

You must live in a cocoon...........a climate controlled cocoon.

I just pass along the research results.

 

[Surface Detail]

An interesting read. Obviously it is not possible to determine the absolute global surface temperature with any degree of accuracy, which is why we determine the change in global temperature by averaging over the changes in temperature at individual locations (anomalies) rather than by attempting to determine absolute global temperatures.

I think the most likely reason for this paper's finding of no change in global temperature is that older papers overestimated the global temperature. There would, after all, have been very little temperature data from cooler parts of the globe such as the polar regions, so determining the temperature of these regions would have been largely guesswork. It's strange that the paper doesn't go into any reasons for the apparent discrepancy though.

 

[longview]

You must live in a cocoon...........a climate controlled cocoon.

Not necessarily, the amount of warming in any individuals lifetime, would likely not be noticeable.
We perceive that is is hotter, because we are older and fatter than were as children and young adults.
In the US at least, the high temperatures have not increased much at all, the low temperatures have come up quite a bit.
An example might be shown by NOAA's climate at a glance.
Climate at a Glance | National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI)
The current maximums are perhaps 1F warmer than the cool period I experienced as a teen in the Early 1970's,
but almost 2F cooler than the maximum temperature my Father experienced as a teen in the late 1930's.