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Panic Buying in Kaliningrad as Lithuania Bans Rail Cargo From Russia

Rogue Valley

Lead or get out of the way
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6.20.22
A wave of panic buying spread across the Kaliningrad region after a rail blockade imposed by neighboring Lithuania on Saturday threatened to isolate Russia’s strategic Baltic exclave. One unverified video shared Sunday showed anxious shoppers loading up on cement at a hardware store in the outskirts of the regional capital. “On the first day [of the ban], everyone ran to buy everything en masse,” Pavel Tatarintsev, a Kaliningrad resident, told The Moscow Times. “But now everyone has calmed down and are waiting to see how the situation will end.” Sandwiched between NATO members Poland and Lithuania, Kaliningrad is home to Russia’s Baltic Sea Fleet, as well as an arsenal of nuclear-ready Iskander missiles. But with no ground connection to the mainland, the region relies on rail links through the Baltic states for the transportation of goods and services. "We consider this to be a most serious violation ... of the right to free transit into and out of the Kaliningrad region," said Kaliningrad Governor Anton Alikhanov in a video posted to messaging app Telegram on Saturday. According to Alikhanov, the ban will affect up to 50% of the products that are imported and exported from Russia through Lithuania.

Vilnius’ decision was a delayed implementation of a ban on the import of goods to Russia that was imposed by Western countries in response to the invasion of Ukraine in late February. The bulk of Russian exports to Kaliningrad are transferred via rail lines between the exclave and mainland Russia, meaning that Russia will now be forced to increase its air and sea shipping traffic to transport sanctioned goods. While Moscow had been preparing for such a rail blockage, the restrictions are still likely to cause disruptions and temporary shortages, according to sanctions expert Dionis Cenusa at Lithuania’s Eastern Europe Studies Center. “[Supplying goods by sea] could lead to delays and shortages respectively, at least in the short term until the new logistics chains are fully operational," Cenusa said. Two vessels currently ferry goods between Kaliningrad and St. Petersburg, and seven more will be in operation by the end of the year, Alikhanov said in a video message Saturday. The European Union’s ban on Russian planes earlier this year meant planes flying between Kaliningrad and Russia have been forced to reroute over the Baltic Sea, adding at least 40 minutes to flight times.


The officials and citizens of Kaliningrad aren't concerned at all about how badly the people of Ukraine are suffering.
 
Lithuania is making a big mistake that will only serve to convince the Russian people that Putin needs to establish control of a corridor in Lithuania connecting Kaliningrad to Belarus.
 
The officials and citizens of Kaliningrad aren't concerned at all about how badly the people of Ukraine are suffering.
True. Why would they? They're Russian.
Kaliningrad is a large and accessible seaport on the Baltic Sea, as is St. Petersburg, not far away. Every human necessity in the Kaliningrad Oblast can easily be supplied by boat. No railroad is needed to rescue the Russians occupying "East Prussia".
 
Lithuania is making a big mistake that will only serve to convince the Russian people that Putin needs to establish control of a corridor in Lithuania connecting Kaliningrad to Belarus.

More invasion?

They can't complete the one they are currently committed to.
 
More invasion?

They can't complete the one they are currently committed to.
Russia has only committed 10% of its active forces to Ukraine. Probably less since it’s using conscripts. It has plenty of bandwidth to stomp Lithuania if it wants to.
 
Lithuania is making a big mistake that will only serve to convince the Russian people that Putin needs to establish control of a corridor in Lithuania connecting Kaliningrad to Belarus.



On the larger scheme of things Nato may be becoming unmanageable. It will be an astonishing development if all it takes to trigger Article 5 is a wanton, Ill advised move by one of its tiniest members; the one expected to contribute zero in a conflict with Russia. Blockades like that by Lithuania ought to be approved in advance by the US; seeing that it is the US Lithuania will be counting on to retrieve it from the clutches of Russia. I seriously doubt Lithuania thought it necessary to consult Senile Joe
 
If Russia blockading Ukrainian ports for grain shipments is a war crime, would blockading rail to Kaliningrad also be a war crime?
 
I find it difficult to believe that Lithuania is acting without input from NATO.
 
Russia has only committed 10% of its active forces to Ukraine. Probably less since it’s using conscripts. It has plenty of bandwidth to stomp Lithuania if it wants to.

Ummmmm

Dafuq?

NATO since 2004....

You didn't know that?
 
Russia has only committed 10% of its active forces to Ukraine. Probably less since it’s using conscripts. It has plenty of bandwidth to stomp Lithuania if it wants to.

Rusia has committed FAR more than 10% of its forces to Ukraine. Russia had 168 battalion tactical groups as of August 2021 and now has more than 120 BTGs arrayed against Ukraine, more than three-quarters of Russia's total.

That is why Putin has accepted help from Chechnya, Syria, experienced former soldiers over 49, etc.

P.S. The Baltic States are NATO nations. The sanction being enforced is a EU sanction.
 
On the larger scheme of things Nato may be becoming unmanageable. It will be an astonishing development if all it takes to trigger Article 5 is a wanton, Ill advised move by one of its tiniest members; the one expected to contribute zero in a conflict with Russia. Blockades like that by Lithuania ought to be approved in advance by the US; seeing that it is the US Lithuania will be counting on to retrieve it from the clutches of Russia. I seriously doubt Lithuania thought it necessary to consult Senile Joe
Hence why it was a mistake to admit these tiny countries that can’t possibly benefit us into NATO. This just confirms Putin was right to prevent Ukraine From joining.
 
Rusia has committed FAR more than 10% of its forces to Ukraine. Russia had 168 battalion tactical groups as of August 2021 and now has more than 120 BTGs arrayed against Ukraine, more than three-quarters of Russia's total.

That is why Putin has accepted help from Chechnya, Syria, experienced former soldiers over 49, etc.

P.S. The Baltic States are NATO nations. The sanction being enforced is a EU sanction.
Incorrect. Russia only has around 175,000 troops in Ukraine out of an active force of over 1,000,000.
 
Ummmmm

Dafuq?

NATO since 2004....

You didn't know that?
NATO exists to make European states clients of America and Germany. It’s not an equal alliance
 
That Europe would honor any defense agreement with Lithuania is a very big and misguided assumption.

There are 30 NATO nations. All are pledged to mutual defense.

Moscow is just going to have to suck it up and supply Kaliningrad by air/sea.
 
Incorrect. Russia only has around 175,000 troops in Ukraine out of an active force of over 1,000,000.

It is against Russian law to use Russian conscripts in a "special military operation".

The Kremlin would have to declare war and order a full mobilization which Putin does not want to do for domestic political reasons.
 
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It is against Russian law to use Russian conscripts in a "special operation".

The Kremlin would have to declare war and a full mobilization which Putin does not want to do for domestic political reasons.
I’m not talking about conscripts. 1 million+ active troops does not include conscripts.
 
I’m not talking about conscripts. 1 million+ active troops does not include conscripts.

You better do your homework.

Russia does not have 1 million contract soldiers. It does have 260,000 conscript soldiers.

Russia covers 11 time zones. The Kremlin cannot dedicate all of its military forces to Ukraine.
 
I have. They have 1 million active personnel and 2 million in reserve.

1 million minus the 260,000 conscript soldiers who cannot fight in Ukraine.

And as I stated, the Kremlin cannot use all of its contract forces in Ukraine. Russia has a lot of border to defend and has forces in Syria.

Plus, Russia has suffered ~30,000 KIA in Ukraine.

Putin is hurting for manpower which is why he upped the contract age limit from 49 to 65 (with military experience)
 
1 million minus the 260,000 conscript soldiers who cannot fight in Ukraine.

And as I stated, the Kremlin cannot use all of its contract forces in Ukraine. Russia has a lot of border to defend and has forces in Syria.

Plus, Russia has suffered ~30,000 KIA in Ukraine.

Putin is hurting for manpower which is why he upped the contract age limit from 49 to 65 (with military experience)
They have not suffered 30,000 killed in action in Ukraine. That number comes from a propaganda rag in Kyiv.
 
Lithuania is making a big mistake that will only serve to convince the Russian people that Putin needs to establish control of a corridor in Lithuania connecting Kaliningrad to Belarus.

The Russians aren't going to do damn thing except send some talking head to complain on one of their state-sponsored talk shows.
 
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